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Paul's Picks 2026 Week 5

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Welcome Back! Last week, I was better than usual again, though I had my worst week so far (not counting Week Zero). I finished at  55-16 for a winning percentage of 77.5%. Overall, I am 277-54, or 83.7%, a drop of 1.7% from the week before. There is no way I will sustain that for the year, but maybe I can stay above 75% this year. There are only 59 games in total this week, 12 less than last week. We still have a few FCS games, but by and large, conference contests are the majority of the games this week. Which makes picking a winner that much more difficult. So... on with the picks! Thursday, October 1 WKU @ New Mexico State - The Aggies won the 1st contest in 2023 in Bowling Green, but the Hilltoppers have won the last 2, by 13 and 19 points. Both teams are 1-3, but WKU has played a much tougher schedule, though both of their wins are against the same FCS team, and by a similar score. Hilltoppers top NMSU. North Texas @ Tulsa - This series began in 1957, with the Golden Hurricane...
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Odds and Ends 9/30/26

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Welcome Back! Today I'll talk mostly about the out of conference results so far. I'll also continue the lists of undefeated and winless teams, as well as those with a win, but no FBS wins. Interconference results This year, I am using a chart, which should more clearly highlight how each conference is doing. It will be organized by their overall OOC record. Unfortunately, you may need to scroll to see the last few columns. Conference Overall Pct Rank vs FBS Pct Rank vs P4 Pct Rank vs G6 Pct Rank SEC 36-2 .947 1 28-2 .933 1 10-2 .833 1 18-0 1.000 1 Big 12 37-8 .822 2 21-8 .724 2 5-7 .417 3 16-1 .941 4 Big Ten 40-11 .784 3 28-11 .718 3 4-10 .286 5 24-1 .960 3 ACC 31-9 .775 4 17-9 .654 5 6-9 .400 4 11-0 1.000 2 Independents 6-2 .750 5 5-2 .714 4 3-1 .750 2 2-1 .667 5 American 24-20 .545 6 14-19 .424 6 1-11 .083 6 13-8 .619 7 Sun Belt 26-25 .510 7 13-24 .351 7 0-14 .000 11 13-10 .565 8 MWC 14-16 .467 8 8-15 .348 8 0-7 .000 9 8-8 .500 9 Pac 12 14-17 .452 9 8-16 .333 9 0-12 .000 10 8...
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Power Rankings 9/29/26

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Welcome Back! I have to admit it; I wasn't sure how my new formula would work, since I deemphasized the amount of points my preseason bonus was worth. It seemed to work pretty well for these 1st 4 games, as teams moved more, but not too much. In the past, teams didn't move much at all, even if they won or lost a big game, because the preseason points exerted an oversized influence. So this year I reduced that influence, and it seems to have worked well.  I also expected the large movement that has happened previously after removing the preseason points to be less than in the past. Boy, was I wrong! So many teams moved 10 or more places that it would take me an hour to type all the team names in this document. 32 of the top 47 moved up or down at least 10 places, so I just stopped figuring the rest out. I'll leave that to you. But here is what I can say without fear of contradiction: UMass does not belong at #22, and I sure don't expect them to stay there. However, up to...
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