Odds and Ends 8-24-22

Welcome Back!

On Wednesdays I have my Odds and Ends.  This is where I present interesting statistics that you can't easily find elsewhere. These include:

Interconference results- which conference has the best OOC record (and which division)

Intraconference results- how do the divisions do against each other within each conference

Undefeated/Winless teams- Starting week 2, I keep a running list of undefeated and winless teams throughout the season, updated each week

Bowl eligible/eliminated- Starting midseason, I keep a running list of teams as they reach bowl eligibility (6+ wins) or are eliminated from bowl eligibility (7+ losses)

Updates on my playoff picks- After I reveal my picks this Wednesday, I will update them each week

Games I'm excited about- I will give a brief preview with key questions about big games that week

Since the season hasn't started yet, I will use today's Odds and Ends to present my list of Coaches On The Hot Seat, a Comparison of OOC Schedules, my picks to make the CFB Playoff, and the Games I'm Excited About! 

Coaches on the Hot Seat- these coaches need to show some definite improvement this year, or they may not be around next year, at least not in the same location.  This improvement may mean winning the conference, getting to a bowl game, or even just winning a conference game or beating their rival, but progress needs to be shown.  These are just simply my opinion. And no, I don't have any inside information; I'm not that connected.

Bryan Harsin, Auburn (being coach at Auburn ensures you're on the perpetual hot seat)

Tom Allen, Indiana (only 2 winning seasons in 5 years)

Scott Frost, Nebraska (4 straight losing seasons)

Scott Satterfield, Louisville (needs to start winning 7 or more games in the regular season)

Mike Norvell, FSU (some improvement last year, but lost to an FCS team...)

Jeff Halfley, Boston College (needs to start winning more than 6 games)

Dino Babers, Syracuse (5 losing seasons out of 6, though was 5-7 last year)

Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech (9 wins in 3 years won't cut it on The Flats)

Steve Sarkisian, Texas (I know it's only been a year, but Longhorn fans are impatient)

Neal Brown, West Virginia (Mountaineers need to start showing some progress)

Herm Edwards, Arizona State (NCAA investigation may begin to put pressure)

Willie Fritz, Tulane (2-10 season last year was a huge step backwards)

Jeff Scott, USF (very little progress seen in 2 years)

Brent Brennan, SJSU (needs to show 2020 wasn't a fluke)

Jake Spavital, Texas State (just 9-27 in 3 years, but some progress shown last year)

Willie Taggart, FAU (2 straight years of 5 wins won't cut it at FAU; one more like it and he's gone)

Will Healy, Charlotte (had a great 1st year, but just ok last 2)

Mike Bloomgren, Rice (just 11-31 in 4 years)

Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green (7-22 in 3 years)

Comparison of P5 OOC Schedules

People love to make fun of the SEC's schedules, saying they never play anyone, and never go anywhere outside of their "footprint", so I started out comparing their non-conference schedule with the Big Ten. But then I thought, "Why not compare all of the P5 conferences?" So that is what I did! For these purposes, all Independents except for Notre Dame are counted as G5 teams, and the teams that will be moving to the Big 12 next year were also counted as G5 teams, since that is what they are this year.  Here is a chart that compares the P5 conferences:

Conference	Total OOC Games	Vs P5	% vs P5	Vs P5 Road	% P5 Road	Vs P5 Road+Neutral	% P5 R+N	Vs G5	% G5	Vs G5 Road	% G5 Road	Vs FCS	% FCS
SEC	56	15	26.8	7	46.7	9	60	27	48.2	3	11.1	14	25
Big Ten	42	11	26.2	4	36.4			22	52.4	3	13.6	9	21.4
ACC	56	21	37.5	9	42.3	10	47.6	22	39.3	10	45.5	13	23.2
Big 12	30	10	33.3	7	70			12	40	3	25	8	26.7
PAC 12	36	11	30.6	6	54.5	7	63.6	15	41.7	3	20	10	27.8

As you can see, most of the numbers are pretty comparable. The SEC and Big Ten play about the same percentage against P5 opponents, but they are much lower than the other 3. And the Big Ten is much less likely to go on the road, especially if you include neutral site games. The Big Ten also plays the highest percentage against G5 teams, but again is 2nd least likely to play those teams on the road (behind the SEC). All of the conferences play FCS teams at around 25% of OOC games, with the Big Ten the lowest at 21.4 and the PAC 12 the highest at 27.8. Interestingly, the ACC is most likely to play P5 teams, and most likely to play G5 teams on the road (by a LOT!). 

So we can put to rest, at least for this year, the narrative that the SEC never travels to play difficult opponents, as they have games at Texas, BYU, Ga Tech, Arizona, Pitt, FSU, Clemson, and Kansas St, as well as "neutral site" games against FSU and Oregon (each of those are in the home states of LSU and Georgia, respectively, hence the quote marks). And the narrative that they fill up on FCS cupcakes? Their 25% rate is in the middle of the P5, less than the Big 12 and PAC 12, but more than the Big Ten and ACC. 

If you go back to my original premise- comparing the Big Ten OOC with the SEC- you'll see that they both play 26-27% of their games against P5 foes, and about 73-74% against G5 and FCS opponents, which means there is very little difference. The biggest difference is that the SEC is more likely, again just looking at this year, to play those games on the road (or at a neutral site), especially against P5 competition.

Paul's Playoff Picks

Any Power Five team that goes undefeated is a shoo-in to make the playoff, but what would happen if each conference had an undefeated team?  Wouldn't that be awesome and create chaos? But when was the last time we had 5 teams that were undefeated in the same year? I certainly don't see that this year, and would be surprised if we have more than 1 or 2 this year.  This is how I see the playoff field shaking out.

I expect Georgia to win the SEC East, and face either Alabama or Texas A&M in the SECCG (I'm not convinced TAMU is quite ready to take that step).  The Dawgs will either be 12-0 or 11-1 entering that contest, and a win puts them in.  The same goes for Alabama or TAMU.

I expect Clemson to win the ACCCG, and at worst be 10-2, but they will be challenged within the Atlantic Division by NC State and Wake Forest. I don't see anyone in the Coastal being good enough to challenge any of those 3 in the AACCG.

I expect Ohio State and Wisconsin to meet in the Big Ten CG, but I think both will have at least one  loss to their name, and I'm not all that convinced that Wisconsin will be there. Iowa is the defending champion, and I think Minnesota and Purdue may have the offense to win the division.

I expect Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to be the class of the Big 12, but odds are that they will split their meetings (once in the regular season, once in the CG), and one or both could lose in an upset sometime during the season. I also wouldn't be surprised if Baylor repeats, or if Kansas State surprises everyone by sneaking into the Big 12 CG.

I expect Oregon and Utah to meet in the PAC 12 CG, but both have challenging non-conference schedules, and difficult conference road games, so getting there undefeated will be a real challenge.

I expect Notre Dame to have a difficult time going undefeated in the regular season, as their schedule includes games @Ohio St, @UNC, vs BYU in Las Vegas, vs Clemson at home, and @USC.

I expect Cincinnati to win the AAC, but they would need to go undefeated, which would include victories @Arkansas and vs Indiana, as well as over conference rivals @UCF, @Tulsa, and @SMU. With an "easier" schedule than last year, the CFP committee may not rate them as highly.

Every team mentioned above has possibilities, and every team has flaws.  The key, as always, may be injuries, turnovers, and just plain old luck.  But here is who I see making the field of 4, in no particular order:

Alabama

Utah

Georgia

Ohio State

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Games I'm Excited About

ALL OF THEM! There's only eleven, so in all seriousness...

Nebraska @ Northwestern (Dublin, Ireland)- Can the Cornhuskers win their Big Ten opener for only the 2nd time in 5 years under HC Frost? Can the Wildcats bounce back from a dismal 2021 season and get revenge for a 49-pt loss to the Huskers last year?

Vanderbilt @ Hawaii- Can the Commodores win their opener for the 1st time since 2018? Can the Rainbow Warriors get the Timmy Chang era off to a positive start?

Nevada @ New Mexico State- Can the Wolf Pack extend their opening game winning streak to 5 games and get the 1st win for HC Ken Wilson in his career debut? Can the Aggies win their opener for the 1st time since 2014 and get the Jerry Kill era off to a great start?

Wyoming @ Illinois- Can the Cowboys win a 2nd straight game against a P5 opponent (beat Missouri in 2019 opener)? Will the Illini win their opener for the 2nd straight year under HC Bielema?

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!