Power Rankings 10-4-22

Welcome Back!

After 5 weeks, the rankings are still a little volatile, as coaches are getting fired, I'm dropping more of my preseason factors, and teams are starting to reveal who they really are. 

By dropping my preseason factors at the same time games are being played, it causes some strange results. In a way, I guess you could call it a market correction- a team was maybe ranked too high of too low to begin with, and so that is being corrected. However, the timing sometimes seems weird. For example, Minnesota suffered their 1st loss, but jumps up 16 spots. This is because they were rated too low to begin with, in my opinion, and so this jump up is a market correction. If they had been in the right place all along, they would have dropped to their current spot. 

One other "oddity" I've noticed is that, as a general rule, the G5 teams seem to benefit most when I drop the preseason factors. This is probably because they have fewer points assigned to them during the preseason, so when I drop a factor, a team like Central Michigan may lose 15 points while a team like Michigan State may lose 45. This moves those teams closer together, and may even be enough for CMU to pass MSU, depending on how many wins and losses they have, and who they beat or lost to. 

I still have several teams way too high in the rankings for my taste (looking at you Air Force and Liberty), and some way too low (Duke and Kansas, for example), but these will probably be corrected over the next 2 weeks as I drop my last 4 preseason factors (2 per week). My goal is not so much to be correct right now, but to be correct at the end of the season.

Now that I've been through all that, let's talk about this week's rankings. Out of 131 teams, 13 had no movement (down from 14 last week), 17 moved up or down 1 spot only (17 last week), 14 moved 2 spots (18 LW), 12 moved 3 (12 LW), 5 moved 4 (13 LW),  8 moved 5 (13 LW), 13 moved 6 (11 LW), 9 moved 7 (3 LW), 6 moved 8 (2 LW), 4 moved 9 (4 LW), 6 moved 10 (3 LW), 5 moved 11 (7 LW), 2 moved 12 (5 LW), 1 moved 13 (4 LW), 3 moved 14 (3 LW), 2 moved 15 (0 LW), 6 moved 16 (0 LW), 1 moved 17 (0 LW), 1 moved 18 (0 LW), 1 moved 19 (1 LW), 1 moved 20 (0 LW),  and 1 moved 43. The top 4 were unchanged, and only the bottom 1 is unchanged. 

Here are the teams that improved the most:

Illinois +20 to #68

UTSA +17 to #22

Minnesota +16 to #18

North Carolina +16 to #29

Ole Miss +16 to #31

James Madison +16 to #96

South Alabama +15 to #86

UCLA +14 to #43

Georgia State +14 to #76

Purdue +13 to #55

Liberty +11 to #15

Mississippi State +11 to #45

East Carolina +11 to #85

Here are the teams that dropped the most:

Wisconsin -43 to #61 

Notre Dame -19 to #45

Colorado -18 to #123

Oklahoma -16 to #33

Virginia Tech -16 to #101

Virginia -15 to #98

Louisiana -14 to #51

UAB -12 to #65

West Virginia -12 to #77

Troy -11 to #95

Stanford -11 to #102

NOTE: Wisconsin fell so far because of firing their coach, who had been successful for several years. Colorado was also affected, but less so, as their coach had been less successful, and for a shorter amount of time, and they hired a coach with experience. I think Air Force is so high at this point mainly because of the historical success of their coach, which is one of the last preseason factors I'll drop.

Anyway, here are my rankings from 1 to 131 (LW stands for Last Week's Ranking). One thing that is new is that I have added the AP rankings in a separate column, so you can see how my rankings compare to the AP Poll:

Rank	Team	LW	AP
1	Alabama	1	1
2	Ohio State	2	3
3	Georgia	3	2
4	Clemson	4	5
5	Cincinnati	7	24
6	Oklahoma State	9	7
7	Penn State	14	10
8	Utah	6	11
9	Michigan	5	4
10	Coastal Carolina	16
11	BYU	12	16
12	Air Force	15
13	Texas A&M	8
14	Appalachian State	13
15	Liberty	26
16	Iowa	10
17	Baylor	23
18	Minnesota	34
19	Wake Forest	28	15
20	UCF	21
21	LSU	20	25
22	UTSA	39
23	NC State	22	14
24	Florida	27
25	San Diego State	25
26	Pittsburgh	19
27	Kentucky	24	13
28	Iowa State	30
29	North Carolina	45
30	Notre Dame	11
31	Ole Miss	47	9
32	Boise State	32
33	Oklahoma	17
34	Memphis	35
35	Tennessee	38	8
36	Oregon	29	12
37	USC	31	6
38	Toledo	40
39	Army	33
40	Auburn	36
41	WKU	49
42	Kansas State	43	20
43	UCLA	57	18
44	Marshall	52
45	Mississippi State	56	23
46	Western Michigan	51
47	Central Michigan	55
48	Michigan State	41
49	Texas	48
50	Houston	44
51	Louisiana	37
52	Miami, Fl	42
53	Fresno State	46
54	SMU	54
55	Purdue	68
56	Miami, OH	59
57	Washington	50	21
58	Louisville	58
59	Washington State	60
60	Nevada	66
61	Wisconsin	18
62	Georgia State	76
63	Arkansas	69
64	Utah State	62
65	UAB	53
66	FSU	63
67	TCU	67	17
68	Illinois	88
69	Wyoming	61
70	Oregon State	77
71	FAU	64
72	Kent State	81
73	Navy	73
74	Missouri	72
75	Middle Tenn	70
76	Tulsa	78
77	West Virginia	65
78	California	75
79	San Jose State	89
80	Boston College	74
81	Buffalo	79
82	Arizona State	71
83	Georgia Southern	80
84	Syracuse	82	22
85	East Carolina	96
86	South Alabama	101
87	Maryland	94
88	Tulane	98
89	Ball State	97
90	Eastern Michigan	90
91	North Texas	93
92	South Carolina	87
93	Texas Tech	95
94	La Tech	86
95	Troy	84
96	James Madison	112
97	Indiana	92
98	Virginia	83
99	Rutgers	106
100	UTEP	109
101	Virginia Tech	85
102	Stanford	91
103	Arkansas State	103
104	Northern Illinois	100
105	Ohio	99
106	Hawai'i	104
107	Kansas	117	19
108	Northwestern	102
109	ODU	107
110	Nebraska	111
111	Southern Miss	108
112	Rice	118
113	Charlotte	110
114	ULM	113
115	Colorado State	114
116	UNLV	120
117	New Mexico	115
118	Texas State	121
119	Bowling Green	124
120	Georgia Tech	125
121	Duke	122
122	Arizona	126
123	Colorado	105
124	FIU	123
125	UConn	130
126	Temple	116
127	Vanderbilt	128
128	New Mexico State	127
129	USF	119
130	Akron	129
131	UMass	131

Feel free to leave a comment. Check out my TWIF Notes from yesterday, and come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!