Paul's Picks- National Championship Game
Welcome Back!
I did it! I watched at least part of all 41 bowl games! But I almost didn't make it, because I was on the road during 99% of the Rose Bowl, and only got to see Utah's last TD (though I did get to listen to it on the radio).
What an exciting bowl season! 2 games were decided in overtime (1 in 3 OTs), and 4 games were decided by 1 point! 23 of the 41 games were decided by single digits, and only 8 were decided by 21 points or more, which means most of the games were competitive from beginning to end. 22 games were within one score!
As expected, I wasn't able to maintain my 83% prediction success rate that I had for the 1st week, but I still ended up at a respectable 27-14 for the bowl season, which is 65.9%. If we add that to my season totals, I finish at 629-266, or 70.3%. This just may be my lowest percentage since I was 8 years old, but I hope it's because there is more parity in college football, and the games are just harder to predict.
If I get this game right, I'll be 28-14 for the bowl season (66.7%); if I'm wrong, I'll be 27-15 (64.3%).
But now it all comes down to this final game...
Monday, January 9
TCU vs Georgia (National Championship Game- Inglewood, CA)- These teams have met 4 times with the Bulldogs winning all 4: 40-26 in the 1942 Orange Bowl, 34-3 in 1980 and 38-10 in 1988, both in Athens, and 31-23 in the 2016 Liberty Bowl. This is TCU's 1st Title Game appearance, and the 1st Title Game appearance for any team from the Big 12. Georgia is 1-1 in the Championship Game, with both games coming against Alabama, and the SEC is 5-4 (Alabama is 3-3 and LSU is 1-0). If you take away games against itself, the SEC is 3-2 against teams in other conferences (2-2 against the ACC- each game Alabama vs Clemson- and 1-0 against the Big Ten. In CFP 1st round games, including this year, the SEC is 10-1, with Alabama's loss to Ohio State in the 1st year the lone loss, and the Big 12 is 1-4, with TCU's win this year the lone win.
The Horned Frogs are 13-1, going 12-0 in the regular season, losing to Kansas State in OT in a rematch in the Big 12 Championship Game, and then upsetting the Michigan Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl. TCU won the thriller 51-45 by getting big plays on both offense and defense, and proved that they belong in the National Championship Game.
The Bulldogs are 14-0, also going undefeated in the regular season, but they won the SEC Championship Game, and had to come back twice from 14-point deficits to eke out a 42-41 victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Peach Bowl. The game was in doubt until OSU missed a 50-yd FG with 3 seconds left. They are looking to be the 1st team to repeat as National Champions in the CFP era.
Statistically (see below), the teams are fairly evenly matched, but a few advantages stand out. Offensively, TCU allows more sacks, TFLs, and is much less efficient on 4th downs and in the red zone. The implication is that if UGA can limit the big plays, and force the Frogs to make long drives, the chances of them bogging down and making a mistake are increased (true for anyone, of course, but this game is for the national title!). Defensively, TCU allows almost twice as many points per game, and almost twice as many yards rushing per game, and they're much less effective in the red zone. The biggest item in their favor is the 4 defensive TDs to UGA's 0. On special teams, the biggest advantage of all may be TCU's punt return unit, as they have 2 returns for TDs, while Georgia has allowed 1 return TD. However, The Dogs have allowed only 6 punt returns all year! Neither team has been penalized much, but if the game comes down to turnovers, as many of them do, this is where TCU has yet another advantage, as they are +9 on the year, while the Dawgs are -2. Has any team won a national championship with a negative turnover margin?
Here is a table with the full stats so you can see them for yourself. All stats are from the official NCAA website.
One final thought; as you know, games aren't won on paper. A lot has to do with motivation, desire, and emotion. Georgia may be more relaxed because they've been here before, but they may feel more pressure as the favorite. TCU may feel more relaxed as the underdog (or underfrog, as it were), as they may feel they have nothing to lose since they weren't supposed to be here anyway, but they may feel more pressure as so many "pundits" continue to pick them to win, and keep talking them up as giant killers. What happens if one team jumps out early to a big lead? How does the other respond? Does the pressure get to them? What happens when/if someone throws a pick 6? Or has a scoop-and-score? Or blocks a FG and returns it for a TD? Both teams have been down, and both teams have had comebacks, but the stakes haven't been this high. This is what makes sports, and college football in particular, so fascinating.
My prediction? Dawgs win 34-23!
I hope you have enjoyed my blogs this season! I will take some time off to enjoy reading, and perhaps writing some music, but I will be back occasionally if the mood strikes me, or if there is big news I feel the need to comment on. Look for me next summer for my previews of the 2023 College Football Season, where I will rank and preview all 133 teams (yes, there will be 2 more than this past year, which you would know if you read my most recent Conference Call...), and then preview the 10 conferences and Independents.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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