Odds and Ends 8-24-23

Welcome Back!

On Wednesdays I have my Odds and Ends.  This is where I present interesting statistics that you can't easily find elsewhere. These include:

Interconference results- which conference has the best OOC record (and which division)

Intraconference results- how do the divisions do against each other within each conference (what few divisions we have left...)

Undefeated/Winless teams- Starting week 2, I keep a running list of undefeated and winless teams throughout the season, updated each week

Bowl eligible/eliminated- Starting midseason, I keep a running list of teams as they reach bowl eligibility (6+ wins) or are eliminated from bowl eligibility (7+ losses)

Updates on my playoff picks- After I reveal my picks today, I will update them each week

Games I'm excited about- I will give a brief preview with key questions about big games that week

Since the season hasn't started yet, I will use today's Odds and Ends to present my list of Coaches On The Hot Seat, a Comparison of OOC Schedules, my picks to make the CFB Playoff, and the Games I'm Excited About! 

Coaches on the Hot Seat- these coaches need to show some definite improvement this year, or they may not be around next year, at least not in the same location.  This improvement may mean winning the conference, getting to a bowl game, or even just winning a conference game or beating their rival, but progress needs to be shown.  These are just simply my opinion. And no, I don't have any inside information; I'm not that connected.

Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M (could another losing season put him there, despite the massive buyout?)

Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri (has yet to have a winning season in 3 years, but just signed an extension)

Tom Allen, Indiana (only 2 winning seasons in 6 years)

Jeff Halfley, Boston College (needs to start winning more than 6 games, and was 3-9 last year)

Dino Babers, Syracuse (5 losing seasons out of 7, though was 7-6 last year)

Neal Brown, West Virginia (Mountaineers need to start showing some progress)

Justin Wilcox, Cal (3 straight losing seasons)

Mike Bloomgren, Rice (incremental progress, but when is the breakthrough to a winning season?)

Brent Brennan, SJSU (needs to show 2020 wasn't a fluke)

Danny Gonzalez, New Mexico (2-10 season was a step back after some progress)

Ricky Rahne, ODU (3 wins last year was half of the 6 wins in 2021)

Thomas Hammock, Northern Illinois (just 1 winning season in 4 years)

Mike Neu, Ball State (just 1 winning season in 7 years)

Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green (13-29 in 4 years)

Dana Dimel, UTEP (just 1 winning season in 5 years, 17-40 in those 5 years)

Comparison of P5 OOC Schedules

People love to make fun of the SEC's schedules, saying they never play anyone, and never go anywhere outside of their "footprint", so I started out comparing their non-conference schedule with the Big Ten last year. But then I thought, "Why not compare all of the P5 conferences?" So that is what I did! For these purposes, all Independents except for Notre Dame are counted as G5 teams.  Here is a chart that compares the P5 conferences:

Conference	Total OOC Games	Vs P5	% vs P5	Vs P5 Road	% P5 Road	Vs P5 Road+Neutral	% P5 R+N	Vs G5	% G5	Vs G5 Road	% G5 Road	Vs FCS	% FCS
SEC	56	16	28.5	6	37.5	9	56.25	26	46.4	3	11.5	14	25
Big Ten	42	14	33.3	8	57.1	9	64.3	21	50	0	0	7	16.7
ACC	56	25	44.6	9	36	13	52	18	32.1	6	33.3	13	23.2
Big 12	42	12	28.5	6	50			13	30.9	6	46.2	11	26.2
PAC 12	36	12	33.3	6	50			15	41.7	5	33.3	9	25

As you can see, most of the numbers are pretty comparable. The SEC and Big 12 play about the same percentage against P5 opponents, but they are much lower than the other 3. But the SEC is less likely to go on the road, unless you include neutral site games. The Big Ten also plays the highest percentage against G5 teams, but doesn't play any those games on the road. All of the conferences play FCS teams at around 25% of OOC games, except for the Big Ten which is at 16.7%, with the Big 12 the highest at 26.2%. Interestingly, the ACC is most likely to play P5 teams, with the Big Ten the most likely to play P5 teams both on the road and at neutral site games. The Big 12 is most likely to go on the road to play G5 teams. 

So how do these numbers compare to last year? Here is how they break down by conference:

SEC- plays 1 more P5 team than last year, 1 less P5 team on the road, 1 less G5 team on the road, and plays a G5 team at a neutral site (Missouri vs Memphis in St. Louis)

Big Ten- plays 2 more P5 teams, 4 more P5 teams on the road (5 more if you include road + neutral- no neutral site OOC games last year), 1 less G5 game, 3 less G5 road games, and 2 less FCS games

ACC- plays 4 more P5 teams, 3 more P5 road + neutral games, 4 less G5 games, 4 less G5 road games

Big 12- 12 more OOC games (4 extra teams), 2 more P5 games, 1 less P5 road game, 1 more G5 game, 3 more G5 road games, 3 more FCS games

PAC 12- 1 more P5 game, 2 more G5 road games, 1 less FCS game

So the argument could be made, at least for this year,  that the SEC, as a conference, has an easier OOC schedule than usual (than last year), or at least easier than some of the other conferences (that wasn't the case last year). But the narrative that they fill up on FCS cupcakes? Their 25% rate is pretty much the average. 

Paul's Playoff Picks

Any Power Five team that goes undefeated is a shoo-in to make the playoff, but what would happen if each conference had an undefeated team?  Wouldn't that be awesome and create chaos? But when was the last time we had 5 teams that were undefeated in the same year? I certainly don't see that this year, and would be surprised if we have more than 1 or 2 this year.  This is how I see the playoff field shaking out.

I expect Georgia or Tennessee to win the SEC East, and face either Alabama or LSU in the SECCG, though Texas A&M is lurking in the West if they can ever put it all together.  The winner of the UGA @ UT game on Nov 18 could very well determine the SEC East, unless there are several upsets. UGA will need to be undefeated  (or 11-1 with a close loss to either Auburn or Ole Miss) and win the SECCG to make the playoff. UT could lose to Alabama, upset the Dawgs, win the SECCG, and make it in as a 12-1 team, or possibly even as an 11-1 team, if their only loss is to a 13-0 UGA SEC Champion. a 1-loss Alabama or LSU is in the same position as the Vols. 

I expect Clemson to win the ACCCG, and at worst be 10-2, but they will be challenged by FSU, and perhaps NC State on the road. It's possible they may have to beat FSU twice. Un undefeated or 1-loss ACC Champion would have a great chance to make it into the the CFP, but what if both Clemson and FSU are 12-1? Will the winner of the ACCCG get in, or will both make it in? Or will both get left out?

I expect Ohio State and Michigan to meet in the Big Ten CG, which means they will be playing in back-to-back weeks. But many believe Penn State may make it a 3-team race in the East. And what happens if all 3 are 8-1 with their only loss against each other? I'm skeptical that any team in the Big Ten West can challenge any of those 3, or will have enough wins, even if they win the Big Ten Championship Game, to make the CFP.

Everyone seems to think Texas will win the Big 12, and they just may, but don't sleep on a surprise entrant in the Big 12 Championship Game, like TCU last year. At any rate, the participants in that game, assuming they are undefeated or have only 1 loss, have a chance to be in the CFP.

The Pac 12 always has problems getting to the end of the season with only 1 loss or less, which has kept them out of the CFP every year since 2016, and this just may be their last chance. This may be the P5 conference with the greatest parity at the top, which means they tend to knock each other off. If USC, Utah, Oregon, or Washington (or some other team) could just make it to (and through!) the Pac 12 Championship Game either undefeated or with just 1 loss, they could finally get back to the CFP. I've been picking a PAC 12 team for each of the last few years, but I'm not sure I can do it again...

I expect Notre Dame to have a difficult time going undefeated in the regular season, as their schedule includes games @ NC State, vs Ohio St, @ Duke, vs USC, vs Pitt , @ Clemson, and vs Wake Forest.

I don't see any G5 teams being strong enough to break through. Sure, several have the strength of schedule to merit consideration should they go undefeated, but I don't see that happening.

Every team mentioned above has possibilities, and every team has flaws.  The key, as always, may be injuries, turnovers, and just plain old luck.  If I were to pick the four best teams, that would be easy:

Alabama

Michigan

Georgia

Ohio State

But the 4 best teams don't always make it in. And the chances of the CFP picking 2 teams each from both the SEC and the Big Ten are pretty slim, unless every other P5 team has at least 2 losses, and every G5 team has at least 1 loss. I also think Georgia has the most difficult path making it in, not because the schedule is difficult, but because their schedule is perceived to be so easy. One loss could very well knock them out, where it would take 2 losses to knock almost anyone else in a similar position out. And let's be honest- what are the chances of a 2nd straight undefeated season? I'm also not convinced that Alabama will win the SEC West, but I'm also not convinced they won't. I'm also pretty sure that if they only have one loss, they'll make it in, even if they don't win the division (see 2017). I'm convinced Michigan is in the same position, despite their super-easy non-conference schedule, so let's pencil those 2 in. That leaves 2 open spots. Ohio State very well could beat Michigan this year and win the the Big Ten with either an 11-1 or 12-0 record, or be an 11-1 non-champion, so that gets them in. That leaves one spot for the champion (maybe- TCU wasn't a champion) of the ACC, Big 12, or Pac 12. I think the Pac 12 will have the same problem they've had the last several years- too much parity at the top- so that no team emerges with less than 2 losses, though it's possible some team (USC? Utah?) could go into the Pac 12 Championship Game with just 1 loss, as in past years. The Big 12 may be in a similar situation, with Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, and others making it difficult for any team to rise above. That leaves the ACC, with the winner of the 2 games between Clemson and FSU the most likely candidate. The question is, what happens if they split those games, and neither team loses any other games? Do you take the most recent winner? Or the winner with the greater margin of victory? So here is who I see making the field of 4, in no particular order:

Alabama

Michigan

Ohio State

Clemson

And it breaks my heart not to include my beloved Georgia Bulldogs, but I just think they are bound to lose a game this year, some upset like the 20-17 two-overtime loss to South Carolina in 2019, and if it happens to be within the division, they may not even make it to the SEC Championship Game, as it would require the team they lost to to lose 2 SEC games. I just don't think the committee will pick an 11-1 non-division champ UGA. If they do make it to the SECCG, then I think they'll have a great chance to make it in, but they may have to win it to do so. In other words, any loss at any time may eliminate the Dawgs.

But what if one or more of these teams don't make it in? Who are the next most likely candidates? Georgia is the obvious choice, but I think you also have to consider a Pac 12 team, possibly USC or Utah (or Oregon or Washington, but would love for Oregon State or Washington State to make a run!), a Big 12 team, maybe Kansas State or Texas (could Texas Tech sneak in?), or another ACC team, like FSU, NC State, or North Carolina. Finally, you would have to consider other SEC or Big Ten teams, perhaps LSU, Penn State, or Wisconsin. Again, I would consider all of these long shots (except Georgia, of course), but no one expected TCU to make it last year.

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Games I'm Excited About

ALL OF THEM! Because COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK! There's only seven, so in all seriousness...

Navy @ Notre Dame- Can the Midshipmen get the Brian Newberry era off to a surprising start? Will the Fighting Irish be surprised by the new offense from Navy?

UTEP @ Jacksonville State- How will the Gamecocks do in their 1st game at the FBS level? Can the Miners win their opener for the 4th time in their last 5 years?

Hawaii @ Vanderbilt- Can the Commodores win consecutive openers for the 1st time since 2017-2018? Can the Rainbow Warriors bounce back from a 3-10 season?

San Jose State @ USC- Can the Spartans win their 5th consecutive opener and pull the huge upset in the process? Will they do better then their 30-7 loss in 2021? Will the Trojans win their 7th straight opening game?

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!