The CFP Committee's Conundrum

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Welcome Back!

The College Football Playoff Committee is tasked with picking the 4 best teams for the College Football Playoff. But what exactly does that mean? Does it mean choosing the 4 teams with the best record, regardless of who they beat or lost to? Which matters more, who you beat, or who you lost to? Does it matter when those victories/losses happen? Is a loss at the end of the season worth more than one early in the season? Is a victory late, worth more than one early? Let's explore what's at stake here.

The scenario the CFP Committee is presented with today is almost as bad as the one I presented about a month ago in one of my Odds and Ends blogs, and updated every week since. I think we can all agree that there are 6 teams that are worthy of the 4 spots: Michigan, Washington, FSU, Texas, Alabama, and Georgia. Their worthiness depends a lot on where you stand on the questions I posed in the 1st paragraph. If we begin with the assumption that wins matter more than anything else, then the 1st 3 mentioned- Michigan, Washington, and FSU- are in. Not only did they finish undefeated, but they claimed a conference championship, which is supposed to be important. That means choosing one of the remaining 3 teams for the final spot, each of which are 12-1. 


The Case for Texas

The Longhorns have 3 wins over teams ranked in the previous CFP Top 25. Those are over #8 Alabama (12-1), #18 Oklahoma State (9-4), and #25 Kansas State (8-4), the lowest combined ranks of any of the 6 teams, which means they have wins over 2 teams that participated in their conference's championship game. Their one loss is to Oklahoma (10-2), which is ranked #12 in the CFP, the lowest rank of any of the competing teams' losses. The FBS teams they defeated had a combined record of 81-65 (.555 winning percentage, 2nd best of the 6 teams), as they claim 10 P5 wins out of 13 opponents. Since they beat #8 Alabama (on the road), and the Crimson Tide defeated #1 Georgia, can you really exclude the Horns with a good conscience? 


The Case for Alabama

The Crimson Tide have 4 wins over teams ranked in the previous CFP Top 25, the most of any team (tied with Washington). Those are over #1 Georgia (12-1). #11 Ole Miss (10-1), #13 LSU (9-3), and #21 Tennessee (8-4), which means they have wins over 1 team that participated in their conference's championship game. Their one loss is to Texas (12-1), which is ranked #7 in the CFP, the highest rank of any of the competing teams' losses. The FBS teams they defeated had a combined record of 78-55 (.586 winning percentage- the best of any of the 6 teams), as they claim 9 P5 wins out of 12 FBS opponents. Since they beat the #1 team- Georgia, which had been #1 all year- and their 1 loss is to the team that was ranked higher than any of the others, and they have more wins over the top 25 than any other team, and their opponents had the best winning percentage, can you really exclude the Tide with a good conscience? 


The Case for Georgia

The Bulldogs have 3 wins over teams ranked in the previous CFP Top 25. Those are over #9 Missouri (10-2), #11 Ole Miss (10-2), and #21 Tennessee (8-4), which means they have wins over 0 teams that participated in their conference's championship game, the fewest of any of the 6 teams. Their one loss is to Alabama (11-1), which is ranked #8 in the CFP, the 2nd highest rank of any of the competing teams' losses. The FBS teams they defeated had a combined record of 67-65 (.508 winning percentage, the lowest of any of these 6 teams), as they claim 9 P5 wins out of 12 FBS opponents. Since they have the 3rd best highest ranked wins against the CFP Top 25 of any of these 6 teams, and they have been ranked #1 all season, and they had won 29 straight games before that loss, and part of that 1 loss can be attributed to a defensive PI call that kept one TD drive alive and another non-review that could (should?) have overturned a 4th down conversion that led to another TD, can you really drop them all the way from #1 to #5 or 6 and exclude the Dawgs with a good conscience? Does going 12-0 in 3 straight seasons, winning the last 2 National Championships, and 44 of the last 46 games not carry any weight?


If the committee decides that 2 of the above teams should be included, which undefeated conference champion(s) gets left out?


The Case against FSU

The Seminoles have 3 wins over teams ranked in the previous CFP Top 25. Those are over #13 LSU (9-3), #14 Louisville (10-3), and #23 Clemson (8-4), which means they have wins over 1 team that participated in their conference's championship game. They have no losses. The FBS teams they defeated had a combined record of 74-71 (.510 winning percentage- the 2nd worst of any of the 6 teams), as they claim 10 P5 wins out of 12 FBS opponents. Since they have the 2nd worst opponents' winning percentage of all 6 teams, and the 3 Top 25 teams they defeated are the lowest combined rank, and they have looked less than stellar on offense in their wins after QB injuries, can you really include the Noles with a good conscience? 


The Case against Michigan

The Wolverines have 3 wins over teams ranked in the previous CFP Top 25. Those are over #6 Ohio State (11-1), #10 Penn State (10-2), and #16 Iowa (10-3), the best 3 wins of any of the 6 teams, which means they have wins over 2 teams that participated in their conference's championship game (UNLV is the other). They have no losses. The FBS teams they defeated had a combined record of 81-65 (.555 winning percentage- the 2nd best of any of the 6 teams), as they claim 10 P5 wins out of 13 FBS opponents. Since their winning percentage is basically propped up by wins against 3 teams (the 3 ranked wins), and the Big Ten was down this year (5-7 against other P5 foes, worst of the P5 conferences), can you really include the Wolverines with a good conscience? 


The Case against Washington

The Huskies have 4 wins over teams ranked in the previous CFP Top 25, the most of any team (tied with Alabama). Those are over #5 Oregon (11-2) twice, #15 Arizona (9-3), and #20 Oregon State (8-4), which means they have wins over 2 teams (3 if you count Oregon twice) that participated in their conference's championship game (Boise State was the other). They have no losses. The FBS teams they defeated had a combined record of 87-21 (.547 winning percentage- the 3rd best of any of the 6 teams), as they claim 11 P5 wins (the most) out of 13 FBS opponents. Since they only the 3rd best opponents' winning percentage of all 6 teams, and the 3 Top 25 teams they defeated are only the 3rd best combined rank, and they have looked less than stellar in most of their wins (9 by 10 pts or less, the most of any of these teams), can you really include the Huskies with a good conscience? 


So what is the CFP Committee to do? Which teams get included, and which get left out? If the CFP had expanded to 12 teams this year (like the expansion committee had originally wanted), then this would all be moot. All of these teams would be included, along with (probably) Ohio State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, and Liberty/SMU. The only decision would be the seeding, which would actually be easier, as the top 4 seeds would be the highest ranking conference champs (Michigan, FSU, Washington, and Alabama/Texas), and then the rest could be placed in order, mostly based on where they were before the conference championship games, as most didn't participate.

What do you think? Who should be in?


Come back tomorrow for my TWIF Notes.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed.

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