Odds and Ends 9/10/25
Welcome Back!
After 2 weeks, there is finally quite a bit to look at.
Interconference results
Here is where we stand so far:
Overall:
1) SEC- 27-3/.900
2) Big Ten- 31-5/.861
3) Big 12- 23-8/.742
4) ACC- 23-11/.676
5) American 17-9/.654
6) MWC- 16-10/.615
7) Pac 12- 2-2/.500
8) SBC- 13-15/.464
9) CUSA- 9-13/.409
10) Ind 1-2/.333
11) MAC 7-19/.269
12) FCS 4-4677.049
The SEC takes over the overall lead, but it's not a huge lead. The American Conference continues to lead the G5. The SBC, CUSA, and MAC all have a losing record.
vs FBS:
1) SEC 19-3/.864
2) Big Ten 23-5/.821
3) Big 12 12-8/.600
4) American 9-8/.529
5) ACC 13-11/.517
6) MWC 8-10/.444
7) Pac 12 1-2/.333
8) SBC 3-15/.167
9) MAC 3-17/.150
10) CUSA 2-12/.143
11) FCS 4-77/.049
12) Ind 0-2/.000
Again, the SEC is in the lead, with the Big Ten close behind. The American leads the G5, and are even above the ACC. All other G5 conferences have a losing record, meaning their overall record is propped up with wins over FCS squads. Independents are winless against other FBS teams.
vs P4 (Notre Dame included, Pac 12 and UConn are not):
1) SEC 8-2/.800
2) Big Ten 5-3/.625
3) Big 12 5-6/.454
4) American 3-5/.375
5) ACC 4-10/.286
6) MWC 2-7/.222
7) MAC 1-13/.071
8) Pac 12 0-1/.000
9) Ind 0-2/.000
10) CUSA 0-8/.000
11) SBC 0-10/.000
12) FBS 0-37/.000
The SEC also leads this category, as there are 4 groups without a win. Again, the American Conference has a better record than the ACC. Interestingly, the Big Ten, the conference with the most teams, has played fewer P4 teams (8) than any other conference except for the Pac 12 (2 teams), Independents (also 2 teams), the American (14 teams have played against 8 P4 foes), and CUSA (their 10 teams have also played 8 P4 opponents). I seem to remember them harping on certain other conferences playing easier schedules...
vs G5:
1) SEC 11-1/.917
2) ACC 9-1/.900
3) Big Ten 18-2/.900
4) Big 12 7-2/.778
5) American 6-3/.667
5) MWC 6-3/.667
7) Pac 12 1-1/.500
8) MAC 3-5/.375
9) SBC 2-4/.333
9) CUSA 2-4/.333
11) FCS 4-40/.091
12) Ind 0-0/.000
The SEC and ACC are near undefeated vs G5 teams, with the Big Ten close behind. The American and the MWC have winning records against their peer conferences, with the Pac 12 at .500.
Intraconference results
The only conference with divisions is the Sun Belt, and they have yet to play a game.
Undefeated/Winless teams
The following teams are undefeated with a 2-0 record (unless otherwise indicated):
Air Force (1-0)
App State
Arizona
Arkansas
Auburn
BYU
California
FSU
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Houston
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa State (3-0)
Louisville
LSU
Maryland
Memphis
Miami, Fl
Michigan State
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Missouri
Navy
NC State
Nebraska
New Mexico State
North Texas
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Oregon
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Rutgers
South Carolina
TCU (1-0)
Temple
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas State
Texas Tech
Tulane
UCF
UNLV (3-0)
USC
USF
Utah
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Here is how many from each conference are still undefeated:
Big Ten 14 out of 18/.778
SEC 12-16/.750
Big 12 8-16/.500
Pac 12 1-2/.500
ACC 8-17/.471
American 6-14/.429
MWC 3-12/.250
SBC 2-14/.143
CUSA 1-10/.100
Independents 0-2/.000
MAC 0-13/.000
The following teams have yet to win a game (0-2 unless otherwise indicated):
Akron
Ball State
Charlotte
Eastern Michigan
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Kennesaw State
Marshall
Miami, Oh
Middle Tennessee
Notre Dame (0-1)
Oregon State
Sam Houston (0-3)
San Jose State
Stanford
UCLA
UMass
UTSA
Virginia Tech
Western Michigan
This is how many from each conference are still winless:
MAC 6 out of 13 teams
SBC 3-14
CUSA 3-10
American 2-14
Ind 1-2
Pac 12 1-2
MWC 1-12
ACC 1-17
Big Ten 1-18
SEC 0-16
Big 12 0-16
The following teams have a win, but no FBS wins:
Air Force
Arizona State
Arkansas State
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Coastal Carolina
Colorado State
Delaware
Duke
East Carolina
FAU
FIU
Florida
Iowa
James Madison
Kansas State
Kent State
La Tech
Liberty
Louisiana
Nevada
New Mexico
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
ODU
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
SMU
South Alabama
Southern Miss
Troy
Tulsa
UAB
UConn
ULM
UTEP
Virginia
West Virginia
This is how many teams of each conference fall into this category:
SBC-9
MWC-6
CUSA-5
MAC-4
American-4
Big 12-4
ACC-4
Big Ten-2
Ind- 1
SEC-1
Pac 12-0
Bowl eligible/eliminated
I will start listing these as soon as teams become bowl eligible (6 wins) or eliminated (7 losses). Look for this in October.
Paul's Playoff Picks
All of my picks are still in play (obviously), but Kansas State's possible bid looks a little shakier. And could Iowa State make it in, or is that just a huge overreaction?
As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:
5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).
So the 1st task is picking who will be conference champions and get the automatic berths, and then what other teams from those conferences may get in. So I decided to take this conference by conference. But as I looked through each team who I felt had a chance, I see the potential for each of the P4 conferences to have as many as 6 or 8 teams with 10 or more wins! Obviously, they all won't (or at least I hope not) but even if each of the P4 only has 3 teams with 10+ wins, that's already more teams than spaces available in the CFP, if you include a 5th conference champion. And don't forget about Notre Dame! So here's what I think.
In the SEC, I think several teams have a chance to make the CFP. Texas is an obvious choice, but there are as many as 8 teams with a chance to get to 10 wins, based on their schedule. UGA has a difficult schedule, as does Alabama, but LSU, Texas, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee have relatively easy schedules. Remember, relatively easy doesn't mean a bunch of cupcakes; it just means easier than some others. I can see any of this group of teams to be capable of winning anywhere from 9-11 games, mostly depending on avoiding upsets, and how they do against each other. Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Florida could be dark horses.
The Big Ten has much of the same problem- as many as 7 teams could win anywhere from 9-11 games (remember, I'm not predicting any 12-0 teams), those teams being Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, again mostly based on the ease or difficulty of their schedules. USC and Nebraska could be dark horses, as well as Minnesota or some other team, but that could be difficult based on their schedules.
In the ACC, most of the top teams don't play each other, more than once or twice, so once again we have the potential of having Clemson, FSU. Miami, SMU, Ga Tech, Louisville, NC State, and UNC getting to 9+ wins, with Pitt or Duke being dark horses.
In the Big 12, I could see BYU, Utah, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, Arizona State, Texas Tech, and/or TCU getting as many as 9 wins, with Cincinnati being a dark horse.
In the G5, I see only about 4 or 5 teams that could get to 11 wins, but as many as 8 could get to 10 wins.
Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:
Georgia
Ohio State- big win over Texas!
Clemson- close loss to LSU
Kansas State- just 1-2, on the verge of elimination
Notre Dame- close loss to Miami
Boise State- blown out by USF
Texas- close loss to OSU
Alabama- lost to FSU by 14
Oregon
Penn State
Georgia Tech- win over Colorado
LSU- big win over Clemson
Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in:
Oklahoma- win over Michigan
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Michigan- loss to Oklahoma
Iowa- loss to Iowa State
Illinois
Indiana
USC
Miami, Fl- big win over ND
SMU- loss to Baylor
Louisville
BYU
Arizona State- loss to lowly Miss State
Iowa State- out to a 3-0 start
Baylor- loss to Auburn
Utah- routed UCLA
Tulane- defeated NW
Army- lost to FCS team, but beat Kansas St
Memphis
San Jose State- lost to a MAC team
UNLV
James Madison- loss at Louisville by only 14
Georgia Southern- routed by Fresno St and USC
Louisiana- lost to Rice
Texas State
Toledo- close loss to Kentucky
Ohio- 3 pt loss to Rutgers, but upset win vs WVU
Liberty- loss to Jax St
WKU- loss to Toledo
This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P4 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.
I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.
Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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