Odds and Ends 9/3/25

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Welcome Back!

Today will be a little sparse, as we are still early in the season. But at least CFB is back!

Interconference results

Here is where we stand so far:

Overall:

1) Big Ten-     16-2/.889
2) SEC-         14-2/.875
3) Big 12-     14-3/.823
4) ACC-          12-5/.705
5) American    9-5/.642
6) MWC-         8-7/.533
7) SBC-             7-7/.500
7) CUSA-         6-6/.500
7) Pac 12-         1-1/.500
7) Independents    1-1/.500
11) MAC        4-9/.308
12) FCS        2-46/.042

The Big Ten leads overall, but it's not a huge lead. The American Conference leads the G5. Only the MAC has a losing record.


vs FBS:

1) Big Ten    13-2/.867
2) SEC            9-2/.818
3) Big 12        5-3/.625
4) ACC            7-5/.583
5) American    4-4/.500
6) MWC        5-7/.417
7) SBC        2-7/.222
8) MAC        1-9/.100
9) FCS           2-46/.042
10) Pac 12    0-1/.000
10) Ind        0-1/.000
12) CUSA        0-5/.000

Again, the Big Ten is in the lead, with the SEC close behind. The American leads the G5, but are only .500. All other G5 conferences have a losing record, meaning their overall record is propped up with wins over FSC squads. CUSA is winless against other FBS teams not in their own conference.



vs P4 (Notre Dame included, Pac 12 and UConn are not):

1) SEC            4-2/.667
1) Big Ten        2-1/.667
3) ACC            4-4/.500
4) Big 12          2-3/.400
5) American      1-3/.250
6) MWC            1-5/.167
7) Ind                0-1/.000
7) Pac 12          0-1/.000
9) CUSA          0-3/.000
10) SBC            0-5/.000
11) MAC          0-6/.000
12) FBS            0-22/.000

The SEC and Big Ten lead this category, but again the data set is so sparse as to be almost meaningless. The ACC is .500, but all other conferences have a losing record, including the Big 12.


vs G5:

1) SEC            5-0/1.000
1) Big 12        3-0/1.000
3) Big Ten        11-1/.907
4) ACC            3-1/.750
4) American    3-1/.750
6) MWC         4-2/.667
7) SBC            2-2/.500
8) MAC            1-3/.250
9) FCS            2-24/.077
10) Ind            0-0/.000
10) Pac 12        0-0/.000
12) CUSA        0-2/.000

The SEC and Big 12 are undefeated vs G5 teams, with the Big Ten close behind. The American and the MWC have winning records against their peer conferences, with the Sun Belt at .500.



Intraconference results

The only conference with divisions is the Sun Belt, and they have yet to play a game.

Undefeated/Winless teams

I will start to list these after Week 2 (we just finished Week One).

Bowl eligible/eliminated

I will start listing these as soon as teams become bowl eligible (6 wins) or eliminated (7 losses). Look for this in October.


Paul's Playoff Picks

All of my picks are still in play (obviously), but Kansas State's possible bid looks a little shakier. And could Iowa State make it in, or is that just a huge overreaction?

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

So the 1st task is picking who will be conference champions and get the automatic berths, and then what other teams from those conferences may get in. So I decided to take this conference by conference. But as I looked through each team who I felt had a chance, I see the potential for each of the P4 conferences to have as many as 6 or 8 teams with 10 or more wins! Obviously, they all won't (or at least I hope not) but even if each of the P4 only has 3 teams with 10+ wins, that's already more teams than spaces available in the CFP, if you include a 5th conference champion. And don't forget about Notre Dame! So here's what I think. 

In the SEC, I think several teams have a chance to make the CFP. Texas is an obvious choice, but there are as many as 8 teams with a chance to get to 10 wins, based on their schedule. UGA has a difficult schedule, as does Alabama, but LSU, Texas, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee have relatively easy schedules. Remember, relatively easy doesn't mean a bunch of cupcakes; it just means easier than some others. I can see any of this group of teams to be capable of winning anywhere from 9-11 games, mostly depending on avoiding upsets, and how they do against each other. Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Florida could be dark horses.

The Big Ten has much of the same problem- as many as 7 teams could win anywhere from 9-11 games (remember, I'm not predicting any 12-0 teams), those teams being Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, again mostly based on the ease or difficulty of their schedules. USC and Nebraska could be dark horses, as well as Minnesota or some other team, but that could be difficult based on their schedules.

In the ACC, most of the top teams don't play each other, more than once or twice, so once again we have the potential of having Clemson, FSU. Miami, SMU, Ga Tech, Louisville, NC State, and UNC getting to 9+ wins, with Pitt or Duke being dark horses.

In the Big 12, I could see BYU, Utah, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, Arizona State, Texas Tech, and/or TCU getting as many as 9 wins, with Cincinnati being a dark horse. 

In the G5, I see only about 4 or 5 teams that could get to 11 wins, but as many as 8 could get to 10 wins.

Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia
Ohio State- big win over Texas!
Clemson- close loss to LSU
Kansas State- just 1-1
Notre Dame- close loss to Miami
Boise State- blown out by USF
Texas- close loss to OSU
Alabama- lost to FSU by 14
Oregon
Penn State
Georgia Tech- win over Colorado
LSU- big win over Clemson

Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a chance to make it in:


Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Michigan 
Iowa
Illinois
Indiana
USC
Miami, Fl- big win over ND
SMU
Louisville
BYU
Arizona State
Iowa State- out to a 2-0 start
Baylor- loss to Auburn
Utah- routed UCLA
Tulane- defeated NW
Army- lost to FCS team
Memphis
San Jose State- lost to a MAC team
UNLV
James Madison
Georgia Southern- routed by Fresno St
Louisiana- lost to Rice
Texas State
Toledo- close loss to Kentucky
Ohio- 3 pt loss to Rutgers
Liberty
WKU

This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P4 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G5 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.


I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.




Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!   

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