Paul's Picks 2025 Week 2
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was I was a decent 78-13 (85.7%), making me 81-15 overall, a winning percentage of 84.4%. The most egregious picks were Boise St over USF, MTSU over Austin Peay, Ga Southern over Fresno St, Oregon St over Cal, and Hawaii over Arizona. No idea what I was thinking on those. The rest I can forgive myself, because they were close or completely unexpected.
This week there are "only" 83 games, meaning there are plenty of FBS vs FCS contests. Let's see if I can have another week above 80%.
So... on with the picks!
Friday, September 5
James Madison @ Louisville- In 2022, the Cardinals defeated the Dukes 34-10 in Louisville. Both teams are 1-0, but neither team defeated an FBS foe. UL wins.
Western Illinois @ Northwestern- Back in 2014, the Wildcats bested the Leathernecks 24-7 in Evanston. I expect a similar result. NU wins.
Northern Illinois @ Maryland- The Terrapins lead the series 2-1, winning in 1996 and 2004, both in College Park. The Huskies got their win in 2003 in Dekalb. Both teams are 1-0, but NIU struggled to get a 2-point win over FCS Holy Cross, while the Terps routed FAU. Maryland wins.
Eastern Washington @ Boise State- The Broncos lead the series 13-6, winning the last 2, but they haven't played since 2000. The Eagles' last win came in 1996, at the end of 14 meetings in 16 years, Boise State got flattened by USF a week ago, but they've had 8 days to stew in their disappointment. Broncos win big.
Saturday, September 6
San Jose State @ Texas - These teams have only met once before, a 56-0 blowout win for the Longhorns in 2017 in Austin. Each team comes in 0-1 following a close loss, but UT lost to defending national champion Ohio State, while the Spartans lost to a MAC team. Horns win.
FIU @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions are in the middle of a 3-game set against, shall I say, less than formidable competition. These teams have actually played once before, in 2007 in State College, with PSU coming out on top by a score of 59-0. Like the Lions, the Panthers are 1-0 on the young season, with a win over an FCS team. Nittany Lions romp over FIU.
Illinois @ Duke- This series is tied, with one win apiece. The Blue Devils won 15-13 in 1958 in Durham, with the Fighting Illini winning 28-14 in 1965 in Champaign. Both teams are 1-0, with easy wins over FCS outfits, so this is basically a guessing game, with almost no information to go on except preseason expectations. The Illini seem poised to make a move into the upper echelon of the Big Ten, but not much is expected of Duke in Manny Diaz's 2nd year here. Illinois wins a squeaker.
Baylor @ SMU- These old SWC rivals have met 82 times before, with the Bears holding a 39-36-7 edge, winning the last 13, but they last played in 2016. These teams played almost every year, from their 1st meeting in 1916 to the breakup of the Southwest Conference in 1995, but have only played 6 times between 2003 and 2016. The Mustangs (and ties!) dominated their early contests, with SMU also having a run from 1966-73, and from 1981-84 (the Pony Express years!), but Baylor has been successful most of the rest of the time, especially since 1989 (following SMU's Death Penalty). BU had a rough start to their season last week, losing by 14 to Auburn, while the Ponies were blistering an FCS squad. This game could go either way, but the Bears will need to play much better if they want a win. Baylor in a close one.
Kennesaw State @ Indiana- This is the 2nd P4 foe in a row for the Owls, and if they can play as well as they did last week- losing by 1 at Wake Forest thanks to 2 missed kicks (a PAT and a FG)- they have a chance to put a scare into the Hoosiers. But no way is KSU capable of doing more than just pushing IU a bit. Hoosiers win this 1st ever meeting.
Iowa @ Iowa State- the Cyclones are off to a hot start, but now comes their nemesis, as the Hawkeyes lead this series 47-24 (no ties!). However, ISU has won 2 of the last 3, but haven't won in Ames since 2011, losing the last 6 in Jack Trice Stadium. These teams first played in 1894, and met almost every year through 1920, picking the series back up in 1933 and '34 before going on hiatus until 1977. They've since played every year except for the pandemic altered 2020 season. Iowa has a win over an FCS team, as does Iowa State, but the Cyclones also have a win in Ireland over Kansas State. ISU wins the CyHawk Trophy for the 3rd time in 4 years.
Kent State @ Texas Tech- The Golden Flashes finally ended their 21-game losing streak with a win over an FCS team last weekend, but they have still lost 22 consecutive games to FBS opponents. Make it 23 in a row as the Red Raiders win this 1st ever matchup.
Northwestern State @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers will bury the Demons in this 1st ever meeting.
Virginia @ NC State- This is one of those rare conference games that don't count in the standings. The Wolfpack lead the Cavaliers 37-22-1, winning the last 3, but it's 8-8 since 1995. Both teams got wins against G5 teams last week, with the Cavs defeating CCU decisively while NC State just got by East Carolina. I'm a big believer in the Wahoos. UVA in an upset for their 1st win in Raleigh since 2007!
Central Michigan @ Pittsburgh- The Chippewas upset SJSU last week, but the Panthers are quite a bit better than the Spartans. Pitt wins this 1st meeting ever.
UConn @ Syracuse- The Huskies lead this series 6-5, but the Orange have won the last 5 matchups, from 2012-2024. However, it's not like UConn's wins were a long time ago- all of their wins were between 2005 and 2011, and Syracuse vacated 2 wins- in 2004 and 2006 (count those and they lead 7-6). The Huskies are 1-0 with a win over an FCS team while Syracuse lost to Tennessee in their opener. The Orange continue their winning streak in the series, extending it to 6 in a row.
East Texas A&M @ FSU- Even if the Seminoles suffer a letdown after their big win over Bama last week, they should still be able to handle the Lions. Noles win big in this 1st-time meeting.
Liberty @ Jacksonville State- This is the 1st of a couple of intra-conference matchups this week. The Jaguars lead the series 5-1, winning in 1981, 1982, 2016, 2017, and 31-21 last year. LU's sole win came in 2023 in Jacksonville. The Flames are 1-0 after a contentious win over the Black Bears of Maine, and though the Gamecocks lost their opener, they played UCF tough, only losing by 7. JSU wins in a mild upset.
Utah State @ Texas A&M- These teams have met once, in 2009, with the Aggies (TAMU) defeating the Aggies (USU) by a score of 38-30 in College Station. A&M wins more easily this time around.
Western Carolina @ Wake Forest- The Demon Deacons have won all 3 games against the Catamounts, in 1982, 1983, and 1991, and like those games, this one will take place in Winston-Salem. WF wins, but this game could be closer than expected.
Howard @ Temple- The Owls are 1-0 against the Bison, but I have been unable to find any details about that contest. It doesn't really matter. Temple wins.
Idaho State @ New Mexico- The Lobos and the Bengals will be playing for the 1st time on a gridiron. UNM gets the win, avenging (in a weird sort of way) their FCS loss (to Montana St) from last year.
Austin Peay @ Georgia- The Governors upset MTSU last week, but the Bulldogs present quite a different challenge than the Blue Raiders. In 2018, these 2 teams met in Sanford Stadium, with the Dawgs romping 45-0. This time will be much the same. UGA wins big.
Grambling @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes will bury the Tigers in this 1st ever matchup.
Troy @ Clemson- The Tigers have won the 2 previous contests with the Trojans by a combined score of 73-43. Both games took place in Memorial Stadium, in 2011 and 2016. Clemson will be looking to bounce back from their opening loss to LSU with Troy hoping to pull a huge upset. CU wins.
Oklahoma State @ Oregon- These teams met in the 2008 Holiday Bowl, with the Ducks coming out on top, 42-31. I don't expect this game to be that close. The Quack Attack overwhelms the Cowboys.
Ole Miss @ Kentucky- The loss to UK cost the Rebels a spot in the CFP last year, so they'll be looking for payback against the Wildcats. Ole Miss leads the series 29-15-1, winning 3 of the last 4, but it's only a 4-3 difference since 2006 (one of those wins by Ole Miss has since been vacated). The lone tie came in 1952 (13-13), as these teams played every year from their 1st meeting in 1944 through 1971, but they've met only 18 times since 1978. The Rebels get revenge on the Wildcats.
East Tennessee State @ Tennessee- The Volunteers routed the Buccaneers 59-3 in their only prior meeting in 2018. This game will end in much the same way. Vols win.
Kansas @ Missouri- The Tigers lead the Jayhawks 57-54-9, but they haven't played since Mizzou left the Big 12 for the SEC in 2012. The Tigers have won the last 3, and 5 of the last 6, but the Jayhawks have won 10 of the last 19. These teams played every year from 1891 (their 1st meeting) through 2011, missing only 1918 for WWI (and yes, they even played through WWII). The ties were in 1900 (6-6), 1906 (0-0), 1910 (5-5) and 1911 (3-3), 1923 (3-3), 1935 and 1937 (0-0 each year), 1958 (13-13), and 1962 (3-3). The Border War, as it was called, has never seen a team win more than 5 in a row, with each team holding one such streak. KU comes into this one 2-0, with wins over Fresno State and an FCS team while Missouri has only a win over an FCS outfit, though it was by 55 points. This one could go either way, and though the Jayhawks look like they might have actually put it together, I have just a little more faith in the Tigers. Mizzou wins a close one at home.
Miami, Oh @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights barely made it by one MAC team last week, and now they're faced with another. The RedHawks played Wisconsin fairly well, holding the Badgers to just 17 points, but the offense couldn't get any points of their own. Rutgers wins, but it could be closer than most people think.
Fresno State @ Oregon State- The Bulldogs have won 8 of the 14 meetings, with the Beavers winning 6, including the most recent matchup in 2022 in Fresno. OSU hasn't lost to FS in Corvallis since 1991, but that's only a 3-game home winning streak for the Beavers, as these teams have played infrequently since their 1st contest in 1981, with the Bulldogs winning 6 of the last 10. Fresno State is 1-1, with a 24-point loss to Kansas and a 28-point win over Georgia Southern, but I expect they'll play a close game sometime soon (like this week!). OSU lost to Cal by 21 points, so these teams feel pretty evenly matched. Give me the Bulldogs in a mild upset.
Gardner-Webb @ Georgia Tech- In their only prior meeting, the Yellow Jackets bested the Runnin' Bulldogs by only 10-7. This one won't be that close. Jackets win big.
Bowling Green @ Cincinnati- I was surprised to learn that the Falcons lead the series 4-0, but all the games occurred between 1990 and 1994, with 2 played at each home stadium. BGSU is off to a good start this season, with a win over an FCS team, but the Bearcats are the better team, despite their 3-point lost to Nebraska in the opener. UC wins.
Delaware @ Colorado- The Blue Hens and Buffaloes have never met before, and I suspect Delaware will wish they never did. Buffs win, by a lot.
Lindenwood @ Appalachian State- The Lions and Mountaineers will be playing on a football field for the 1st time. App State wins easily.
Texas State @ UTSA- The Roadrunners lead this series 5-1, but the Bobcats won 49-10 last year in San Marcos. TSU is 1-0 with a 25-point win over Eastern Michigan. UTSA is 0-1, with an 18-point loss to Texas A&M. I'm not sure which result is more valuable, or if they give us any insight into the relative strengths and weaknesses of either team. Flip a coin and go with the Roadrunners at home.
UAB @ Navy- The Midshipmen have won each of the last 2 years to lead this series 2-0, and neither game was close. The Blazers barely escaped FCS Alabama State while Navy was crushing VMI. Navy sinks UAB.
North Texas @ Western Michigan- The Mean Green are 1-0, with a shutout win over an FCS team while the Broncos were losing 23-6 at Michigan State. I think a mid-tier American Conference team is better than a mid-tier MAC team. UNT wins this 1st ever meeting.
Saint Francis @ Buffalo- The Bulls will get their 1st win of the 2025 season over the Red Flash in this 1st time matchup.
Bryant @ UMass- The Minutemen beat the Bulldogs in their only prior meeting, but I have no idea when that was or what the score was, not that it matters. UMass needs to win, as this is their best chance at a win this season, but with each of their last 3 wins all against FCS teams, the odds are good. Minutemen win, but it'll take about 3 and a half hours.
Middle Tennessee @ Wisconsin- The Blue Raiders and the Badgers have never met before. UW wins by a (very) large margin.
West Virginia @ Ohio- This may be the best chance for a MAC team to pull an upset of a P4 team, not because the Mountaineers are bad, but because the Bobcats came close to upsetting Rutgers last week, and the game is being played in Athens, where 2 of Ohio's 4 wins in the series have been. WVU leads 13-4, but 13 of the meetings were between 1897 and 1949. The other 4 matchups have occurred since 1983, with only the contest in 2001 being in this century. The Mountaineers have won the last 4, but the Bobcats won 2 of 3 before that stretch. This will be close, or at least a lot closer than those last 4 meetings (a combined 136-9 in favor of WVU), but the Mountaineers have enough juice to win.
Northern Iowa @ Wyoming- In 1993, the Cowboys outlasted the Panthers 45-42 in Laramie. Wyoming wins again, though I'm not sure either team approaches 20 points, much less 42.
USF @ Florida- The Gators lead the series 3-0, winning in 2010, 2021, and 2022, with 2 of those 3 played in Gainesville, but the Bulls have increased their scoring output with each contest, from 14 to 20 to 28. If they can do that again (increase by another TD) then they might actually win this game. But I don't think UF will allow that to happen. Gators chomp the Bulls.
Arkansas State @ Arkansas- Surprisingly, this will be the 1st meeting between these in-state teams. The Razorbacks are not a great team, but they've been to a bowl 3 of the last 4 years. Hogs win big.
Sacramento State @ Nevada- The Wolf Pack lead the series 17-9, winning the last 5 (since 1976), but they haven't played since 2004. The Hornets are led by Jaden Rashada, who has bounced around several programs with little playing time. Nevada was perhaps the best 3-win team in FBS last year, with 6 close losses, so they need this win to have any chance of besting that mark. Wolf Pack devour SS.
Jackson State @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles lead the Tigers 3-0, winning in 1987, 2002, and 2018. This win will make USM 4-0 in the series.
Texas Southern @ California- The Golden Bears and the Tigers will be playing for the first time. Cal wins big.
Cal Poly @ Utah- The Utes will demolish the Mustangs in this 1st-time matchup.
Missouri State @ Marshall- The Bears got a rude welcoming to the FBS ranks by USC, and while the Thundering Herd aren't the Trojans, they should have no problems with Mo State. Marshall wins easily.
North Carolina Central @ ODU- The Monarchs lead the Eagles 2-0, winning in 2009 and 2010. They'll win this year, too. ODU stomps NCC.
Campbell @ East Carolina- The Fighting Camels lead the series over the Pirates 3-2, but only one was played recently- ECU's 49-10 win in 2022. The other 4 games were played in the 1930s. Pirates win.
Florida A&M @ FAU- The Owls are 1-0 against the Rattlers. Make that 2-0 after this win.
Bethune Cookman @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes are 7-0 against the Wildcats, with all games played in Miami since 2011. Canes win.
South Carolina State @ South Carolina- The Gamecocks have won all 3 meetings with the Bulldogs. SC wins easily.
Army @ Kansas State- Both teams have struggled early this season, with the Black Knights losing to an FCS team and the Wildcats losing to Iowa State and barely escaping FCS North Dakota. Army has won both previous matchups, 21-6 in 1966 and 41-14 in 1987, but that was before Bill Snyder arrived in 1989. Each team desperately needs a quality win, and neither can really afford another loss, though this won't affect their respective conference races. I'll stick with the home team, though I expect the Black Knights to put up a fight. KSU wins a close one.
North Carolina @ Charlotte- The Tar Heels defeated the 49ers 38-20 last year in Chapel Hill, so this is the return engagement. Charlotte was pummeled by App State last weekend while UNC was stomped by TCU, but the Heels are working on a short week, since they played on Labor Day night. This one will be surprisingly close, but the Heels will pull it out in the end.
Houston @ Rice- The Cougars lead the Owls 34-12, winning 8 of the last 9, but the Owls won the last time the game was played in Rice Stadium, in 2023. These teams started playing in 1971, meeting every year through 1995, and they have met semi-regularly since 1999, a total of 21 times in 25 years. Both teams won their opener last week, with UH shutting out an FCS squad and Rice upsetting Louisiana on the road. I'm glad these old SWC foes have continued to play since both were left out of the Big 12 when it formed in 1996. Cougars win, but expect the Owls to keep it close, maybe even into the 3rd or 4th quarter.
North Carolina A&T @ UCF- The Knights will win this 1st ever matchup with the Aggies
WKU @ Toledo- The Hilltoppers bested the Rockets 26-21 in Bowling Green, Ky last year, so Toledo gets a chance to repay WKU in the Glass Bowl. WKU is 2-0 on the young season, with a win over Sam Houston and an FCS team. The Rockets are 0-1 after an 8-point loss to Kentucky. This will be a competitive game, but Toledo wins at home.
Northern Colorado @ Colorado State- The Rams are 20-0 against the Bears, winning from 1900 to 2024. CSU wins again to stay perfect against UNC.
Memphis @ Georgia State- The Tigers own a 59-22 win over the Panthers in 2018 in Memphis, so this is the return visit to Atlanta. The score disparity this time may not be quite as wide, but it won't be much closer, either. Memphis wins.
Tulane @ South Alabama- The Green Wave are 2-1 against the Jaguars, winning the last 2. SA got a 17-point win against an FCS team, but Tulane is one of the best G5 teams, and has been for the last 3 years. The Green Wave washes over the Jaguars.
Long Island University @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles will get their 1st win of the 2025 season over the Sharks.
La Tech @ LSU- The Tigers lead this series 19-1, winning the last 16 (since 1905) with the only loss to the Bulldogs in 1904 in Ruston, as LT has never won in Baton Rouge in 14 attempts. This will be their 5th meeting since 2003, which was the 1st time they had played since 1941. Bayou Bengals win in Death Valley again.
Arizona State @ Mississippi State- The Sun Devils defeated the Bulldogs 30-23 last year in Tempe in their 1st ever meeting. This year, MSU gets a chance to exact revenge, but while they opened this season with a win on the road at Southern Miss, the Bulldogs aren't expected to win many games. ASU wins, but it may be as close as last year.
Michigan @ Oklahoma- This is the game of the weekend. These teams have met just once before, in the 1976 Orange Bowl, with the Sooners coming out on top with a 14-6 win. OU was only 6-7 a year ago, and a season opening rout of an FCS team doesn't show whether they are any better this year. The Wolverines opened with a convincing win over New Mexico, and they were 8-5 last year. If this were played in Ann Arbor, I would have no doubt as to the victors. But with the game in Norman, I'm picking the Sooners in an upset.
Ball State @ Auburn- The Tigers are 3-0 vs the Cardinals, with all 3 played in Jordan-Hare Stadium, and all 3 between 2001 and 2009. The scores were 30-0, 63-3, and 54-30, so none have been particularly close. The War Eagles prevail on the Plains again.
Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies lead the series 6-4, winning 5 of the last 6 (since 1983), but the Commodores won 34-27 last year in Nashville. The game has only been played in Blacksburg on 3 occasions before this, with Va Tech winning all 3. However, this is a different breed of 'Dores, and Vandy finally has an offense. Commodores win in a mild upset.
Akron @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers and Zips will be meeting for only the 2nd time, with NU winning the first matchup 59-14 in 1997 in Lincoln. I wouldn't be the least surprised if this year's score was nearly identical. Huskers win.
Georgia Southern @ USC- There is an interesting subplot to this game in that GS HC Clay Helton used to be HC at USC. It would be even more interesting if the Eagles had a chance to upset the Men of Troy. Trojans win this 1st time meeting.
Boston College @ Michigan State- The Eagles lead this series 5-1-1, including wins in the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl, and 23-19 last year in Chestnut Hill. MSU's lone win came in one of the 2 games played in East Lansing, in 1995. The 13-13 tie came on Halloween in 1936. BC started this season by walloping Fordham by 56 points, with the Spartans doing just enough to subdue WMU 23-6. This appears to be an even matchup, but I like the Eagles even with the game on the road.
Southern Illinois @ Purdue- The Boilermakers bested the Salukis 35-13 back in 2014, and with another win, PU will have their 1st back-to-back wins since 2022. Purdue wins.
Charleston Southern @ Coastal Carolina- The Chanticleers lead the Buccaneers 8-6, but they've lost the last 2, and 3 of the last 4 (2013-2016). CCU wins to extend their lead, and to end CSU's 2-game winning streak in the series.
ULM @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide lead the series 2-1 (3-1 if you count the vacated win in 2006), but the one loss in former HC Nick Saban's 1st year in Tuscaloosa is the one everyone remembers. But I bet you don't remember who the HC at ULM was at the time (Charlie Weatherbie), or how the Warhawks ended their season (6-6). That 2007 game is the only one of the 4 where Bama allowed ULM more than 7 points, and the only one the Warhawks held the Tide to under 34 points. Alabama crushes the Warhawks.
UCLA @ UNLV- The Bruins are up 2-0 in this series, with a home-and-home played in 2015 and 2016. This year, UCLA opened with a thud, losing 43-10 to Utah at home. They continue the early season trend of cavorting with like teams (teams that begin with U!) by taking on UNLV in Las Vegas. The Rebels are 2-0, but weren't really challenged by either FCS Idaho St or Sam Houston, so we don't really know if they are as good as thy've been the last couple of years. The Bruins need this win in the worst way if they have any hopes of making a bowl in HC Foster's 2nd year. UCLA ekes out the win.
McNeese @ Louisiana- The Cowboys lead the series 17-10-2, winning 11 of the last 16 (since 1973 with ties in 1977 and 1982), but the Ragin' Cajuns have won 2 of the last 3, including the most recent contest in 2016. UL wins to make it 3 of 4.
Tulsa @ New Mexico State- The Golden Hurricane lead this series 15-4, but the Aggies have won the last 2, in 2000 and 2001. The rest of the matchups were between 1946 and 1990. Both teams won their opener last week over an FCS opponent, and both were 3-9 last year. In these situations, I usually go with the home team, but I think even a bottom team from the American Conference is better than a middling one from CUSA. Tulsa wins, but NMSU keeps it close.
UT Martin @ UTEP- The Miners will secure their 1st victory of the season in this 1st ever meeting with the Skyhawks.
Weber State @ Arizona- The Wildcats and Wildcats will be playing for the 1st time. Arizona wins big.
San Diego State @ Washington State- The Cougars lead the series 2-1, winning in Seattle in 2007 and in San Diego last year (29-26), with SDSU's lone win coming in 2011 in San Diego. The Aztecs opened with a lopsided win over an FCS squad, while Wazzu struggled to win by 3 against their FCS opponent. This will be a close game, with SDSU winning a mild upset on the Palouse.
Stanford @ BYU- The Cardinal have won twice against BYU, in 2003 and 2004, and the Cougars have just 1 win over Stanford, in 2022. BYU opened with a rout over an FCS team last week, as Stanford was off after opening with a loss to Hawaii in their opener 2 weeks ago. I still expect the Cougars to challenge for a Big 12 championship, and I have little to no expectations for the Cardinal. BYU wins.
UC Davis @ Washington- The Huskies will have no problems getting past the Aggies in this 1st-ever meeting.
Sam Houston @ Hawaii- The Bearkats stunned the Rainbow Warriors 31-13 last year in Huntsville, but Hawaii is a completely different team on The Island. The Warriors played well in dispatching Stanford, but were stomped last week by Arizona. SHS is the only team that is 0-2, losing at WKU and to UNLV, neither game particularly close. Hawaii wins.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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