Paul's Picks 2025 Week 3
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was I was a decent 70-13 (84.3%), making me 151-28 overall, a winning percentage of 84.4%.
This week there are "only" 70 games, the fewest so far. Let's see if I can have another week above 80%.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 11
NC State @ Wake Forest- The Wolfpack lead this series 69-43-6, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Demon Deacons won 34-30 last year in Raleigh, and they've won 3 of the last 4 played in Winston-Salem. The teams first played in 1895, then twice in 1908, but they've played every year since 1910, even during WWI and WWII. Both teams are 2-0 this year, but the level of competition each has faced is vastly different. NC State wins, though it may be close for a while.
Friday, September 12
Indiana State @ Indiana- The Hoosiers lead the series 7-1, winning the last 6 (since 2003), with their lone loss to the Sycamores coming in 1963 in their 2nd meeting (the 1st was in 1925). ISU played close in 2012, losing only by 7, but all of the other defeats have been by at least 17 points. IU wins by at least 17 points.
Colgate @ Syracuse- The Orange only lead the series by a score of 32-31-5, and they're only 32-28-4 at home, but they've won the last 17. The teams 1st played in 1891, with the Raiders winning 12 of the 1st 17 with 2 ties, as they played almost every year through 1961, but they've only played 6 times from 1981-2023, and they haven't played in Hamilton, NY since 1897. Syracuse wins big.
Colorado @ Houston- These teams met in the 1971 Astro Bluebonnet Bowl, won 29-17 by the Buffaloes. They could have been near-annual rivals when the SWC disbanded and joined the Big Eight to form the Big 12, but the Cougars were left out. UH is 2-0, but haven't really played anyone of consequence yet. CU is 1-1, with an opening loss to Ga Tech and a win over new FBS member Delaware. HC Sanders has done a terrific job with the Buffs, but I'm a big believer in HC Fritz at Houston. Cougars win a close one at home.
Kansas State @ Arizona- The Arizona Wildcats lead the series 5-2-1, but the Kansas State Wildcats have won 2 of the last 3, including 31-7 last year. all of the matchups before last year were between 1941 and 1978. Arizona has opened 2-0 for the 2nd year in a row, and like last year, they really haven't beaten anyone. However, unlike last year, they won both games by large margins, by a combined score of 88-9. KSU was my pick to win the Big 12, but they've looked nothing like a contender. Kansas State is only 1-2, with upset losses to Iowa State and Army, and their only win by 3 points over FCS North Dakota. But I'm not quite ready to give up on them. KSU wins by a FG.
New Mexico @ UCLA- The Bruins defeated the Lobos 27-13 in the 2002 Las Vegas Bowl in their only prior meeting. UNM has already lost to 1 Big Ten team (Michigan), but they do have a win over an FCS squad. UCLA is 0-2, getting blown out by Utah and losing to UNLV, who shares a conference with the Lobos. Bruins win. I think...
Saturday, September 13
Oregon @ Northwestern - These teams have a long and storied history against each other. Just kidding! But they have met once before, in 1974, also in Evanston, with the Wildcats coming out on top 14-10. If this game ends similarly, then something has gone horribly wrong for the Ducks. OU is 2-0, outscoring their 1st 2 opponents 128-16 (64-8 avg). This win may not be by quite as large a margin, but I wouldn't bet against it. Ducks win big to extend their streak of never losing a conference game as a member of the Big Ten.
Clemson @ Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets lead this series 50-36-2, but the Tigers have won the last 9 (since 2015), and 13 of the last 15, though the win in 2009 was vacated. The teams have been playing regularly since 1898, with the longest hiatus being between the games in 1922 and 1932. CU is 1-1 this year, with a loss to LSU and a closer-than-expected win over Troy, so they have yet to play up to their potential. The Jackets are 2-0, with wins over Colorado and an FCS team. I believe GT has a really good team this year, but I don't see them matching Clemson's talent level. But with the game in Atlanta, I'm picking the Jackets in an upset.
Central Michigan @ Michigan- The Wolverines lead 4-0, winning in 1931, 2003, 2006, and 2013, and their closest win was by 24 points, 41-17 in '06. Both teams are 1-1, and both have wins over Mountain West teams and losses to a P4 opponent, but the Chippewas have very little chance in this one. UM wins.
Oklahoma @ Temple- I would never have dreamed that these teams have played 3 times before, with the Sooners winning in 1940 and 2004 in Norman, and the Owls winning in 1942 in Philadelphia. Temple is 2-0, as is OU, but this is not 1942. Sooners win, though they may be a bit sluggish at first after their big win over Michigan last week.
Wisconsin @ Alabama- The Badgers won the initial meeting, 15-0 in 1928 in Madison, but the Crimson Tide has won the other 2: 35-17 in 2015 in Arlington, TX, and 42-10 in Madison last year. This will be the 1st time they are playing in Tuscaloosa. UW is 2-0, winning by a combined 59-10 vs 2 G5 teams. Bama is 1-1, losing to FSU by 14 and stomping ULM by 73 points. The Tide have had problems on the road lately, but they've won 12 in a row at home, and 32 of their last 33 in Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Red Elephants roll.
Houston Christian @ Nebraska- This will be a 1st-time meeting between the Cornhuskers and the Huskies. NU wins easily.
Towson @ Maryland- The Terrapins have won all 3 times they have played the Tigers- in 2011, 2017, and 2023- and all 3 wins were by at least 25 points. Terps win again.
William & Mary @ Virginia- The Cavaliers lead this series 32-6-1, winning the last 6 (since 2011), and 12 of the last 13 (since 1988)with the Tribe winning in 2009. They 1st played in 1908, and they haven't met in Williamsburg since 1969. Hoos win.
Samford @ Baylor- The Bears crushed the Bulldogs 50-12 back in 2002 in their only previous matchup. Expect a similar result as the Bears maul the Bulldogs.
Memphis @ Troy- The Tigers lead the series 5-1, winning the last 5, but the 1st 5 games were played between 1937 and 1941, with the latest being a 38-17 win by Memphis last year. 4 of the 6 games have been played in Memphis, with the other 2 in Dothan and Montgomery, so this will be the 1st time they meet in Troy. The Trojans are 1-1, and played Clemson tough last week, but the Tigers are one of the top G5 teams. Memphis wins.
Buffalo @ Kent State- The Bulls lead this series 16-14, winning the last matchup 24-6 in 2023, also in Kent. The Golden Flashes have won 2 of the last 3, but the 2 teams are 4-4 over the last 8, with the home team 4-4 in that span. The teams 1st met in 1900, then played twice in the 1930s, and every year from 1966-70, but the majority of their matchups have been since 1999. KSU broke their long losing streak with a win over an FCS outfit in their 1st game, but they've still lost 22 consecutive FBS games, and 16 straight MAC contests. However, their last FBS and MAC win was in OT against these very same Bulls in the last game of the 2022 season, a season where Buffalo was a bowl team. Bulls win, but I wouldn't be the least surprised if this game was close, and maybe even an upset for the Flashes.
South Alabama @ Auburn- The Tigers and Jaguars will be meeting on the gridiron for the very first time, but I don't expect much of a cat fight, even though SA played a very good Tulane team close. War Eagles come out on top on The Plains.
New Hampshire @ Ball State- The Wildcats have won the only prior meeting with the Cardinals, 23-16 in 2009. BSU is 0-2 with lopsided losses to Purdue and Auburn by a combined 73-3, so this will be their best chance at an OOC victory. Cardinals even the series.
UConn @ Delaware- The Blue Hens lead the Huskies 20-7, winning the last 5, but those were played between 1990 and 1998. Delaware made the move to FBS this year, and actually played pretty decently against Colorado. UConn had a great season last year and are looking to repeat that success, and came close last weekend to getting their 1st win over a P4 opponent since 2022, losing in OT to Syracuse. Huskies win, but the Blue Hens will make them work for it.
Georgia @ Tennessee- The Bulldogs lead the series 29-23-2, winning the last 8 to finally take back the lead over the Volunteers. The Dawgs have also won 13 of the last 15, since 2010, and have won 6 of the last 7 played in Knoxville, last losing there in HC Kirby Smart's 1st year in Athens. The Vols are 2-0, with big wins over Syracuse at a neutral site and over an FCS squad at home. UGA is also 2-0, but have looked less than impressive in dispatching Marshall and FCS Austin Peay. This will be QB Gunner Stockton's 1st true road start, and I'm not sure how he will handle the atmosphere in Neyland Stadium. The Dawgs have lost 2 of their last 3 SEC road games (at Alabama and Ole Miss), and this game will make it 3 of their last 4. UT wins by pulling ahead early then holding off a UGA comeback. But I hope I'm wrong...
Villanova @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions lead this series 6-3-1, though for some reason Villanova.com shows the Wildcats with a 4-1 lead in the series, with wins in 2005, 2006, 2013, and 2014, all years in which the teams did not meet. Weird... Anyway, PSU wins big.
SMU @ Missouri State- The Bears are certainly not easing into this FBS thing, as they opened the season with 2 road games at USC and Marshall, winning by 1 in Huntington, and now they host the Mustangs in a 1st-time matchup. The Ponies lost in double OT last week, and are looking to rebound this week and earn their 1st FBS win of the season. SMU wins.
Oregon State @ Texas Tech- The Red Raiders defeated the Beavers 15-14 in Lubbock in their only previous meeting. In 1959. This year TTU is 2-0 with 2 big wins over overmatched opponents (129-21 combined score) while OSU is 0-2, losing to Cal and Fresno State, both at home. Red Raiders win.
USC @ Purdue- The Trojans lead this series 3-1, winning the last 3 in 1975, 1976, and 1998, all by at least 10 points, but the Boilermakers won the one that matters most- the 1967 Rose Bowl, 14-13. On paper, this looks like a huge mismatch. PU is coming off a 1-11 season, and USC is 2-0 this year with 2 convincing wins, and were 7-6 last year with a bowl win over Texas A&M. However, the Boilermakers are also 2-0 this year under new HC Barry Odom, winning by a combined score of 65-17, including a shutout, and the Men of Troy were only 1-4 on the road last year, with the only win over UCLA (in their own time zone) as they lost at Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, and Washington. USC will win, but it won't be easy.
Norfolk State @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights have won all 4 meetings with the Spartans, all since 2007, all in New Brunswick, and all by at least 31 points (with 3 by shutout). All of those conditions will converge again to create a Rutgers win.
Youngstown State @ Michigan State- The Spartans have blasted the Penguins by at least 22 points in their 3 previous matchups. MSU wins again.
Washington State @ North Texas- The Cougars and Mean Green will be playing for the 1st time in football. WSU is 2-0, as is UNT, but neither team has looked particularly impressive. Wazzu wins in their 1st game away from The Palouse this season.
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia- The Panthers lead the Backyard Brawl 63-41-3 in a series that started in 1895 (14 meetings through 1917), met yearly from 1919-39 and from 1943 to 2011, and then was picked up again in 2022. The Mountaineers have won the last 4 times it's been played in Morgantown, but this is a WVU team that just lost to a MAC team. Pitt wins, but it'll be close, as 7 of the last 8 games have been decided by 11 points or less.
Richmond @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels lead the series 3-1, winning in 1971, 1972, and 1977, but the Spiders won the last meeting in 1978. UNC wins easily.
Northwestern State @ Cincinnati- The Bearcats have 2 wins against the Demons, in 1977 and 2013 by a combined score of 107-9. Cincy wins again.
Incarnate Word @ UTSA- The Roadrunners defeated the Cardinals 35-7 in 2019, their only previous contest. UTSA wins big.
Morgan State @ Toledo- The Rockets and Bears will be meeting for the 1st time. Toledo wins.
Iowa State @ Arkansas State- The Cyclones destroyed the Red Wolves 52-7 last year in Ames, so this is the return trip. ASU is 1-1 with a blowout loss to Arkansas while ISU is 3-0 against stiffer competition. Cyclones win big again.
Louisiana @ Missouri- The Tigers will win this 1st meeting with the Ragin' Cajuns.
UTEP @ Texas- The Miners have never defeated the Longhorns in 6 tries, and only once have they played in El Paso. UTEP has never scored more than 13 points, and UT has scored 41+ points in the 4 games not played in the 1930s. Horns win big.
USF @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes lead the series 6-1, with their only loss in 2010 in Miami Gardens. All of the contests have been since 2005, and 5 of the 7 were won by 21+ points, all by Miami. The Gators last week may have been looking past the Bulls, but after USF's hot start, I don't see the Canes doing the same. I'm tempted to pick the Bulls, but I think Miami is just the better team. Canes win.
Liberty @ Bowling Green- Each team has won once in this series, with the Falcons winning 62-3 in 2003 in Bowling Green and the Flames winning 34-24 in 2023 in Lynchburg. Both teams are 1-1 with near identical scores in wins over FCS squads and almost the same score in their losses, as each team has allowed the exact same amount of points so far- 41- and LU scoring 6 more than BGSU. On paper, this game looks even. Go with the Falcons at home, handing the Flames their 3rd road loss in a row.
Middle Tennessee @ Nevada- The Wolf Pack and the Blue Raiders will be meeting for the 1st time, and neither team appears to be very good. Go with Nevada at home, as MTSU is 1-12 in their last 13 road games.
Alcorn State @ Mississippi State- The Bulldogs have 2 wins and no losses vs the Braves, winning in 2010 and 2013 by a combined 100-23. MSU puts up 40+ in an easy win.
FAU @ FIU- The Owls have a 17-4 lead in this series, winning each of the last 7 (since 2017). Both teams are 1-1 with the Panthers notching an easy win over an FCS team and then being shut out by Penn State. FAU also has a win over an FCS squad and a loss to a Big Ten team- Maryland. FIU has won 3 of their last 4 home games, while the Owls have lost 8 of their last 9 on the road. Panthers pull the upset.
Merrimack @ Kennesaw State- The Warriors represent KSU's best chance for a win early in the season, and their 1st home game this year, as they've played at Wake Forest and Indiana, and actually have done pretty well. Owls win in this 1st ever meeting, but only if they can get their offense untracked.
Eastern Kentucky @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd lead the series 12-8-1, winning the last 4 (since 1991), as all but 2 of the games were played from 1926-1992. Marshall has already lost to a semi-FCS team in Missouri State, who is playing their 1st year at the FBS level, but they should be more than enough for the Colonels. The Herd tramples EKU.
Monmouth @ Charlotte- The 49ers and Hawks will be meeting for the very first time, and though Monmouth is 2-0, Charlotte gets their 1st win of the season.
Ohio @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes have won all 6 contests with the Bobcats- in 1899, 1900, 1901, 1902, 1999, 2008, and 2010 (since vacated), and none have been particularly close. In fact, Ohio didn't score on OSU until the 1999 game, and have never scored more than 16 points against the Bucks. Though the Bobcats have a win against West Virginia and a close loss at Rutgers, Ohio State is another challenge altogether (does any other team open with 3 P4 opponents?). Buckeyes win, but don't be surprised if Ohio stays close for a bit, maybe even late into the 1st half.
Western Michigan @ Illinois- The Fighting Illini lead the series 4-2, but after winning the initial 2 contests in 1947 and 2004, Illinois has dropped 2 of the last 4: in 2008 in Detroit, and in the most recent matchup in 2016 in Champaign. This game has never been played in Kalamazoo. The Broncos have played well early in the season but have nothing to show for it- a relatively close 23-6 loss to Michigan State and a 3-point loss in OT to North Texas. The Illini are 2-0 and haven't really been challenged. Illinois wins.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss- The Razorbacks lead this series 37-31-1, winning 6 of the last 11, but the Rebels have won the last 2. These teams have played every year since 1981, 11 years before UA joined the SEC West, and they played semi-regularly from 1908 through 1970. Both teams are 2-0 this year, but only Ole Miss already has an SEC win. Rebels win, adding heat to Arkansas HC Pittman's hot seat.
ODU @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies have a 4-2 lead in the series, winning the last 2, with all games being played since 2017. The Monarchs are 0-3 in Blacksburg. Make that 0-4. VT wins.
Jacksonville State @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles lead the series 4-0, all played between 1992 and 2002. However, GS is 0-2 on the young season, and haven't looked remotely competitive against Fresno State and USC, both on the road. The Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 games played in Paulson Stadium next to beautiful Eagle Creek. JSU is 1-1, already with a win over CUSA favorite Liberty, and their loss was at UCF by only 7 points. This will be a close game, but I think the Eagles have more talent. GS wins.
Murray State @ Georgia State- The Racers own a 48-24 win over the Panthers in 2011 in the only previous contest, but that was 2 years before GSU joined the FBS in 2013. The Panthers have had a rough start to the season, but they've played Memphis and Ole Miss. GSU wins.
Appalachian State @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles have won 2 of the 3 prior matchups with the Mountaineers, in 1937 and 2014, both in Mississippi, but ASU has the most recent victory, 48-38 in 2023 in Boone. Both teams have new HC's, so this is an interesting matchup. I smell an upset. USM wins.
Prairie View A&M @ Rice- The Owls are 2-0 versus the Panthers, winning in 2016 and 2018. Rice wins again.
Florida @ LSU- The Gators lead the series 34-32-3, winning 27-16 last year, but the Tigers have won 5 of the last 6. These teams have played every year since 1971, but UF hasn't won in Death Valley since 2016 and only 3 times since 2003. The 1st meeting was in 1937, and after another contest in 1941, the teams played yearly from 1953-67. I have no idea why they skipped playing in 1968-70. Anyway, LSU has a big win over Clemson, and a sluggish one over La Tech. Florida owns an FCS rout and an upset loss to USF. Bayou Bengals win, but don't be surprised if the Gators hang tough.
Texas A&M @ Notre Dame- The Fighting Irish lead this series 4-2, winning 23-13 in last year's season opener, but this is only the 2nd time it's being played in South Bend. The other matchups were in the 1988, 1993, and 1994 Cotton Bowls in Dallas (TAMU won in '88), 2000 in South Bend, and 2001 in College Station (TAMU's other win). The Aggies are 2-0, with 2 wins over G5 teams, but neither was overly impressive, as they've allowed 46 points in the 2 games. Notre Dame is 0-1, having an off week after their opening loss to Miami on the road. I have no idea if the loss to the Hurricanes means the Irish aren't as good as they were last year, but I do know that a loss in this game could be devastating to their CFP hopes, as the rest of the schedule contains no currently ranked teams. Aggies win in a shootout.
Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky- The Wildcats have won both prior meetings with the Eagles, in 2017 and 2019, and like this one, those were played in Lexington. EMU has fallen below its standards the last few years, but they reached a new low in their loss to FCS LIU last week. UK devours the Eagles.
UMass @ Iowa- The Hawkeyes have had a miserable offense for years, but their defense is always outstanding. If Iowa can't break 40 points against the Minutemen, we'll know this year's offense is just as bad, Hawkeyes win big.
New Mexico State @ La Tech- CUSA seems to be rolling out one conference game a week, but I imagine all the teams will be playing each other soon enough. The Bulldogs lead the series 8-6, winning 5 of the 6 played in Ruston, but the Aggies have won the last 2, including the most recent in Joe Aillet Stadium. NMSU is 2-0, with wins over an FCS outfit and over Tulsa, both at home. LT is 1-1, also with an FCS win, with their loss on the road at LSU. Go with the home team; Bulldogs win a close one.
East Carolina @ Coastal Carolina- These teams met in the 2022 Birmingham Bowl, with the Pirates coming out on top by a score of 53-29. Both teams are 1-1, with wins over FCS teams and losses to ACC teams. However, the Chanticleers were mauled by UVA while ECU played NC State, who just defeated the Hoos, within 7 points. Pirates take down CCU in Conway.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina- I expect this to be one of the better games this weekend. The Gamecocks lead the series by an overwhelming 30-4 margin, and they've won the last 16 in a row (since 2009). The teams have played every year since SC joined the SEC in 1992, but had 1 prior matchup, in 1961. Vandy has only won twice in Columbia, in 1999 and 2007, and each followed a win the previous year in Nashville. But the 'Dores lost 28-7 last year in FirstBank Stadium, so if they win here, the pattern would be broken. Both teams are 2-0, both have wins over FCS squads, and both defeated Va Tech away from home, SC 24-11 in Atlanta, and Vandy 44-20 in Blacksburg. Anchor Down! Vandy pulls the upset!
Utah @ Wyoming- The Utes lead this series 51-32-1, winning the last 4 (between 2007-10), and 10 of the last 11 (since 2000), including 5 of the last 6 played in Laramie. Both teams are 2-0, with the Cowboys allowing only 7 points in 2 games, but those were against much lesser competition. Utah wins, probably by a lot.
Duke @ Tulane- The Blue Devils hold a 3-2 edge in the series, winning each of the last 3 (from 2011-2015), with the Green Wave winning the 1st 2 contests, in 1964 and 1973. The teams are 1-1 in New Orleans. The main backstory to this game is that the Duke QB, Darian Mensah, is a transfer from Tulane, and he's a good one. The Green Wave come in 2-0, with a win over Northwestern, but they didn't look all that good against South Alabama, only winning by 2 points. The Blue Devils are 1-1, crushing FCS Elon then getting run out of Wallace Wade stadium by Illinois. This should be a highly competitive contest, and I see Tulane righting the ship and pulling the home upset.
Abilene Christian @ TCU- The Horned Frogs are 2-0 against the Wildcats, but it's been a while since they played: 1925 and 1930. TCU wins big.
Navy @ Tulsa- The Midshipmen lead 8-2, winning the last 2, and they are 5-0 in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have a win this year, over Abilene Christian, but lost last week to NMSU. Navy wins to run their record to 3-0, and 1-0 in the American Conference.
Akron @ UAB- The Blazers own a 31-20 win in 2019 over the Zips in Akron, so this is the return trip. Neither team is very good, but Akron has yet to score a point this season. UAB wins, but the Zips get at least a FG.
Air Force @ Utah State- The Falcons lead the series 6-5, winning the last contest 39-21 in 2023, but the Aggies have won 2 of the last 3, and are 3-2 in Logan. AFA has only played 1 game, and it was a rout of FCS Bucknell. USU is 1-1, with a win over UTEP and a loss at Texas A&M. Bronco Mendenhall is a quality coach, but Troy Calhoun is no slouch himself. Falcons win.
Southern @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs will rout the Jaguars in this 1st ever meeting.
Texas State @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils squeaked by the Bobcats 31-28 last year in San Marcos in the only previous matchup. TSU is 2-0 with 2 wins over quality G5 teams, while ASU is 1-1, coming off a loss to Mississippi State in Starkville. The Sun Devils have won their last 7 home games, and I don't see the Bobcats breaking that streak. ASU wins.
Minnesota @ California- The Golden Bears lead this series 4-2, winning the last 2 in 2006 and 2009. they also won games in 1951 and 1952, with the Golden Gophers winning in 1964 and 1987. Both teams are 2-0 this season, but neither has played an opponent of consequence, with Minnesota outscoring their opponents 89-10 and Cal outscoring theirs 69-18. This should be a tight game, but I like the Gophers in this one, even if they're on the road.
Boston College @ Stanford- This series is tied 2-2, with each team 2-0 at home, but those all occurred between 1979 and 2002. The Cardinal is 0-2, losing to a G5 school (Hawaii) and by 24 to BYU. The Eagles are 1-1, with a 2-point double OT loss at Michigan State. BC wins.
Portland State @ Hawaii- The Rainbow Warriors have a 5-1 lead over the Vikings, with PS winning in 2000. Hawaii wins to run their record to 3-1 for the 1st time since 2019, when they finished 10-5.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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