Odds and Ends 10/15/25

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Welcome Back!


We are 1/2 of the way through the season for most teams, and there is a lot more interesting info, as we are now starting to see trends. However, OOC games are just about done, so that goes on the back burner until the end of the year. We do have some Wednesday games this week, so I'll start with those.


Wednesday, October 15

Delaware @ Jacksonville State- The Fightin' Blue Hens won the only previous matchup by a score of 20-14 in May of 2021 (the 2020 FCS season). The Gamecocks are 3-3/2-0 with wins over Liberty and at SHS and close 7-pt losses at UCF and Ga Southern. Delaware is 3-2/1-1 in their 1st season in CUSA and at the FBS level, with their win at FIU and the loss to WKU by 3 points. I'll give JSU the edge due to their history of success in CUSA. 

UTEP @ Sam Houston- The Miners own a 3-1 lead in the series, winning in 1990, 2003, and 2023, but the Bearkats won 41-21 last year. However, SHS is a miserable 0-6 this year, with every loss by at least 17 points, except for last week's loss to Jax State by 2. This is one year after the Bearkats went 10-3, but they did lose the HC to Temple following the season. UTEP is 1-5/0-2, losing to La Tech and Liberty, with their only win over an FCS squad. I think SHS gets into the win column and hands new HC Phil Longo his 1st CUSA and FBS wins.


Interconference results


Now that we are deep into conference play, there are only a few non-conference games each week. I will revisit this at the end of the season.


Intraconference results

The Sun Belt West and East are tied at 3 wins apiece after the East was 2-1 vs the West this past weekend.


Undefeated/Winless teams

The following teams are undefeated with a 6-0 record (unless otherwise indicated):

BYU 
Georgia Tech 
Indiana 
Memphis 
Miami, Fl (5-0)
Navy 
Ohio State 
Ole Miss 
Texas A&M 
Texas Tech
UNLV 

4 teams suffered their 1st loss this past weekend, so we are down to 11 out of 136 teams (8.1%) that remain undefeated. 

Here is how many from each conference are still undefeated:

American    2 out of 14/.143
SEC     2-16/.125
Big 12    2-16/.125
ACC    2-17/.118
Big Ten    2-18/.111
MWC    1-12/.083
Pac 12    0-2/.000
Independents 0-2/.000
CUSA    0-10/.000
MAC    0-13/.000
SBC    0-14/.000


The following teams have yet to win a game (0-6 unless otherwise indicated):

Oregon State (0-7)
Sam Houston 
UMass 

No teams earned their 1st win of the season, so we still have only 3 teams that remain winless (2.2%).

This is how many from each conference are still winless:

MAC    1 out of 13 teams
CUSA    1-10
Pac 12    1-2
Ind     0-2
MWC    0-12
SBC    0-14
American    0-14
SEC    0-16
Big 12    0-16
ACC     0-17
Big Ten     0-18


The following teams have a win, but no FBS wins:

Air Force
Boston College
Charlotte
Georgia State
Nevada
Northern Illinois
Oklahoma State
South Alabama
UTEP

9 teams (6.6%) do not have an FBS win, including 2 P4 teams.

This is how many teams from each conference fall into this category:

MWC-2
SBC-2
CUSA-1
MAC-1
American-1
Big 12-1
ACC-1
SEC-0
Big Ten-0
Ind- 0
Pac 12-0


Bowl eligible/eliminated

The following teams have reached 6 wins, and thus are bowl eligible. There are 36 bowl games, so 72 teams will be needed. If you add in the 12 teams for the CFP (using some of the bowls not previously counted), then 84 teams are needed. So far 10 teams are eligible, so we need 74 more. 

BYU 
Georgia Tech 
Indiana 
Memphis 
Navy 
Ohio State 
Ole Miss 
Texas A&M 
Texas Tech
UNLV 

As teams reach 7 losses, they become ineligible for a bowl, unless there are an insufficient amount of teams to fill all the bowl slots. In that case, teams that are 5-7 may be invited in the order of their Academic Progress Rate scores. Akron is ineligible for a bowl regardless of their record due to academics. Delaware and Missouri State may only go to a bowl if there are not enough eligible teams, so I will be listing all 3 of those teams here. We currently have 4 teams ineligible.

Akron
Delaware
Missouri State
Oregon State


Paul's Playoff Picks

Most of my picks are still in play, but more and more teams are being eliminated each week.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- loss to Alabama reduces margin for error
Ohio State- still undefeated
Clemson- ELIMINATED
Kansas State- ELIMINATED
Notre Dame- 2 losses already
Boise State- ELIMINATED
Texas- back in consideration after win over OU- in other words, Texas is... no, I won't say it
Alabama- back in the race
Oregon- still in consideration after loss to Indiana
Penn State- ELIMINATED
Georgia Tech- still undefeated
LSU- loss at Ole Miss hurts

NOTE: Eliminated only means from an at-large spot. These teams could still win their respective conferences. 


Here is the list of the next most likely teams to get in:


Oklahoma- 5-1 so far
Ole Miss- still undefeated
Tennessee- close loss to UGA in OT
Michigan- losses to Oklahoma and USC
Iowa- losses to Iowa State and Indiana
Illinois- 4-2 after loss to Ohio State
Indiana- still undefeated
USC- 5-1 after win over Michigan
Miami, Fl- still undefeated
SMU- 2 losses already
Louisville- 4-1, still a long way to go
BYU- still undefeated
Arizona State- 2 losses now after being routed by Utah
Iowa State- have lost 2 in a row
Baylor- 2 losses already
Utah- big loss to Texas Tech
Tulane- routed by Ole Miss
Memphis- still undefeated
UNLV- still undefeated
James Madison- loss at Louisville by only 14
Louisiana- lost to Rice
WKU- loss to Toledo

I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.


I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.




Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!    

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