Paul's Picks 2025 Week 6
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was back above 80%, finishing 43-10 (a robust 81.1%), making me 298-66 overall with a winning percentage of 81.9% (down 0.1% from last week).
This week there are "only" 52 games, the fewest so far, and like 2 weeks ago, the schedule seems sparse on big matchups. Let's see if I can stay above 80%.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 2
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State- Each team has 1 win in this (very) brief series, each winning at home the last 2 years. The Aggies are 2-2/0-1, winning their 2 home games and losing their 2 road games. The Bearkats are 0-4/0-1, with more losses than they had all of last year, but they've lost to conference favorite WKU, an SEC team, and 2 MWC teams, with 3 of those on the road. SHS doesn't get their 2nd home game (only 5 overall) until Oct 9! NMSU wins a close one.
Friday, October 3
WKU @ Delaware- The Fightin' Blue Hens are actually 2-0 against the Hilltoppers, winning home-and-home games in 1981 and '82. Delaware is 3-1/1-0, and were off last week to prepare for this game. WKU is 4-1/2-0, with their only loss at Toledo. This has a chance to be a real barnburner, as both teams have solid offenses and defenses (good, but not great). Hilltoppers win.
Charlotte @ USF- The Bulls have won both meetings, which took place the last 2 years, by 34 and 35 points. I'll be surprised if USF doesn't trample the 49ers again.
New Mexico @ San Jose State- The Spartans hold a commanding 15-5-1 lead in this series, including a win in the 2006 New Mexico Bowl, and winning the last 3 (since 2019). However, the Lobos have 2 of their 5 wins (in the 1960s) and the tie (in 1971) in San Jose. SJSU is off to a rough start to the season, losing 3 of their 1st 4, with their only win over an FCS squad. UNM is off to a surprisingly good 3-1, with a 1-1 record against the Big Ten! I really want to go for the upset here, but my brain says to pick the favorite. Spartans eke out a win.
West Virginia @ BYU- The Mountaineers are 2-0 vs the Cougars, winning in 2016 and 2023, but this will be the first time the game will be played in Provo. BYU is 4-0/1-0, with only 1 win by less than 21 points (24-21 at Colorado last week), while WVU is just 2-3/0-2, with their lone FBS win in OT against Pitt at home. Cougars maul the Mountaineers.
Colorado State @ San Diego State- The Aztecs lead this series 22-15, winning 10 of the last 13 (since 2005), but the Rams won 22-19 in their last meeting in 2023, and are 1-1 in the last 2 played in San Diego. The Aztecs have been like Jekyll and Hyde, losing by 23 to a mediocre Washington State team, then blowing out Cal by a score of 34-0, then barely surviving NIU by what I'm sure was a riveting game (6-3 was the final score). CSU is 1-3 with no FBS wins, losing to that same WSU team by 17 last week. SDSU wins at home over the Rams.
Saturday, October 4
Kentucky @ Georgia - This is one of the more lopsided series in college football, with the Bulldogs leading 64-12-2, winning each of the last 15 (since 2010). The Wildcats have lost the last 7 in Athens, with their last win in 2009, and they've only won 2 in a row in the series once- in 1949 and 1956. These teams have played every year since that 1956 game, and this was after they played almost every year from their 1st meeting in 1939 until 1949, missing only 1941 and 1943. I have no idea why there was a 6-year hiatus. UK is 2-2/0-2, losing to Ole Miss by 7 at home and to SC by 22 on the road. The Dawgs are 3-1/1-1 and coming off their 1st loss of the season to Alabama by 3 points, a game they could have (should have?) won. This is a good spot for the Cats, coming between Bama and UGA rival Auburn, so maybe they can catch the Dawgs napping, but I doubt it. UGA wins.
Iowa State @ Cincinnati- The Cyclones hold a 2-0 edge, winning by at least 17 points each of the last 2 years. The Bearcats are 3-1/1-0, with their only loss to Nebraska in Kansas City and a win at Kansas. ISU is 5-0/2-0, with wins over Kansas State, Iowa, and Arizona, the 1st 2 by just 3 points each. Cincy will give them a good run at home, but the Cyclones will tear through and win.
Wisconsin @ Michigan- This is another lopsided series, with the Wolverines holding a dominating 52-17-1 lead, winning 38-17 in their last meeting in 2021, but the Badgers have won 5 of the last 8 (since 2009), including 2 of the last 4 in Ann Arbor. However, UW has not experienced much recent success, as they are only 21-21 since the start of the 2022 season, and 15-15 under HC Fickell, and just 2-2/0-1 this year. UM is 3-1/1-0 and had a bye week last week. Wolverines pulverize the Badgers.
Illinois @ Purdue- The Boilermakers hold a slim 48-46-6 edge over the Fighting Illini, winning 7 of the last 9 (since 2016), but Illinois won 50-49 last year, and 3 of their last 4 wins in the series have been in West Lafayette. The Illini are off to a 4-1/1-1 start, and have looked impressive in all but 1 game. Purdue is 2-2/0-1, losing their last 2, but they were off last week. Each team has played USC, with the Boilermakers losing by 16 at hame and the Illini winning by 2, also at home. Illinois wins.
Boston College @ Pittsburgh- This is another almost even series, with Pitt ahead 18-16, winning 4 of the last 5 played at home, but the Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 overall. BC is 1-3/0-2, with no FBS wins and their 3 losses by a combined 16 points. The Panthers are 2-2/0-1, with both losses by 7 points each. Pitt wins at home.
Clemson @ North Carolina- The Tigers lead this series 40-19-1, winning the last 6 (since 2011), including the 2015 and 2022 ACC CGs, and 11 of the last 13 (since 1999). Neither team has a quality win, with victories over an FCS outfit and teams from the American Conference (1-3 Charlotte, no FBS wins) and the Sun Belt (2-2 Troy). They are a combined 0-5 versus P4 teams. CU is already 0-2 in the ACC while this will be UNC's conference opener. The Tar Heels may give the Tigers a fight, but Clemson will come out with the win.
Kansas State @ Baylor- The Wildcats have a narrow 11-10 lead in the series, winning the last 2, but the Bears have won 8 of the last 12 (since 2012). Both teams have had disappointing starts to the season, but both can still make the Big 12 CG. KSU is 2-3/1-1, finally getting an FBS win last week over UCF by 14 points. Baylor is 3-2/1-1, but only 1-2 at home, and only 2-3 in their last 5 home games dating to last season. The Cats have won 2 of the last 4 in Waco. KSU wins to make it 3 in a row in the series.
Air Force @ Navy- This is merely the 1st leg in the quest for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. The Falcons hold a 34-23 lead in this series, winning 4 of the last 5, but the Midshipmen won 34-7 last year. Navy is off to an undefeated start, but so far they've played an FCS team and 3 bottom-feeders from their conference (though Rice appears much improved). However, AFA is a mere 1-3, with all losses by at least 9 points and the defense allowing an average of 47.33 ppg against FBS foes. Navy wins big.
Army @ UAB- The Blazers hold a 5-1 lead in the series, but all of their wins were between 2000-2004, when both were in CUSA. The Black Knights won for the 1st time last year by a score of 44-10. Neither team has been very good in the early going, with Army at 1-3 (loss to an FCS team, but a win over Kansas State), and UAB at 2-2 (losses to Navy and Tennessee by at least 14 points each). I don't believe the Blazers are very good, so look for the cadets from Army West Point to win for a 2nd year in a row.
Ohio @ Ball State- The Cardinals lead this series 15-13, but the Bobcats have won the last 5, 8 of the last 10, and 4 of the last 5 played in Muncie. Ohio is 3-2, with losses to 2 Big Ten teams and a win over West Virginia. Ball State is 1-3 with no FBS wins and a 6-point loss to UConn. Bobcats devour the Cardinals
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies have doubled up the Demon Deacons, leading the series 26-13-1 and winning 7 of the last 9 (since 1984), including the last meeting in 2023, as they've won 3 in a row in Blacksburg. WF is 2-2/0-2, losing their 2 games by a combined 11 points, but they also have a mere 1-point win over Kennesaw State. Va Tech is 2-3/1-0, but more importantly, are 2-0 under interim HC Philip Montgomery, including a 23-21 win at NC State. However, the Hokies are 0-3 at home against FBS teams this season. The Demon Deacons pull the mild upset on the road.
UTSA @ Temple- The Roadrunners have wins in each of the last 2 years to lead the series 2-0, and neither game has been closer than 15 points with UTSA scoring a combined 100 points. Both teams are 2-2, and both were off last week, so there isn't a lot to go on except history and location. Meep! Meep! Roadrunners dash past the Owls for the win.
Campbell @ NC State- The Wolfpack will end their 2-game skid with a win over the 1-4 Fighting Camels.
Western Michigan @ UMass- The Broncos are 2-0 vs the Minutemen, winning in 2012 and 2013. WMU has been one of the early surprises in the MAC with a win over conference favorite Toledo and a close loss in OT to upstart North Texas. UMass is 0-5 and one of the worst teams in the FBS, with a loss to an FCS team and no FBS losses closer than 32 points. Broncos trample the Minutemen.
Oklahoma State @ Arizona- The Cowboys hold a slim 5-4 lead, including a win in the 2010 Alamo Bowl, but the Wildcats won the last meeting in 2012. Six of the 9 matchups were between 1931 and 1942, with the last 3 in 2010 (bowl game), 2011, and 2012. Arizona is 3-1 in Tucson in the series. OSU is 1-3/0-1 with no FBS wins, and are 0-1 under interim HC Doug Meacham. UA is 3-1/0-1, and seems much improved from last year. Wildcats massacre the Cowboys.
Penn State @ UCLA- Shockingly, the Bruins have a 4-3 lead in this series, but all but one of the contests was played between 1963 and 1968. The outlier is the 27-11 Nittany Lion victory last year in State College. UCLA, at 0-4, is one of the worst teams in any P4 conference, but they played much better last week in the 1st game under interim HC Tim Skipper. However, they have been held to 14 points or less in 3 of their 4 games, with 23 points the most they have scored. PSU is coming off their 1st loss, a heartbreaker in OT to Oregon at home, so they probably don't mind getting away for the weekend. Nittany Lions win.
Texas @ Florida- The Gators have a chance to right the season if they can subdue the Longhorns, but UT holds a 3-0-1 edge in the series, winning in 1939, 1940, and 49-17 last year, but only the '40 contest was played in Gainesville. The tie was in 1924 in Austin, a 7-7 affair. The Horns are 3-1/0-0 with an opening loss to current #1 Ohio State and really no wins of note. UF is 1-3/0-1, the only SEC team without an FBS win. UT gores the Gators.
Vanderbilt @ Alabama- Who would have ever thought that the Commodores would enter this game with a better record than the Crimson Tide. In fact, if Bama hadn't won last weekend, Vandy would be the higher ranked team in this matchup. The Tide has an overwhelming 60-20-4 lead in this series, winning 23 of the last 24 played on the field (though 2 of those, in 2006 and 2007 were vacated, and a 17-6 win in 1993 was forfeited). The Dores did win last year 40-35 in Nashville, but they haven't won in Tuscaloosa since 1984, which remains their only win there. However, all games before 1968 were played in either Nashville, Birmingham, or Mobile. Alabama is riding high after their win over UGA last weekend, and they've played very well since their opening loss to FSU in Tallahassee, and they're riding a 14-game home winning streak. Vandy is 5-0/1-0, with no win closer than 20 points. I'm tempted to predict the Commodores to pull the upset the 2nd year in a row, but this is where I think Vandy's run ends. The Tide rolls as they exact revenge for last year's loss.
Boise State @ Notre Dame- Both teams have come on strong after some early struggles as they meet for the 1st time ever on a gridiron. The Fighting Irish lost their 1st 2 games to Texas A&M and at Miami, but they were by a combined 4 points. They've since won their last 2 by a combined 69 points. The Broncos were routed by USF in their opener, but have since rebounded to run their record to 3-1, winning each by at least 12 points. A win here would make Boise State's season, and could propel them into the CFP, but a loss still leaves a path to the MWC championship, but no chance at a 2nd straight CFP berth. The Irish need a win to keep their hopes alive, as a loss all but eliminates them from consideration. Notre Dame wins.
Washington @ Maryland- The Huskies own a 21-20 win over the Terrapins in the 1982 Aloha Bowl, their only previous meeting. UW is 3-1/0-1, losing for the first time last week to Ohio State at home, but they've lost 5 of their last 6 on the road, and 6 of their last 7 away from Husky Stadium. The Terps are 4-0/1-0, with a Big Ten win over Wisconsin, and they were off last week. Maryland wins in an upset.
ULM @ Northwestern- The Warhawks and Wildcats will be meeting for the 1st time. ULM is 3-1 with a loss to Alabama, but no wins to speak of. NW is 2-2, and 2-1 at home this season. Cats win.
Oregon State @ Appalachian State- The Beavers and Mountaineers will be playing against each other for the 1st time, and neither are off to a promising start. App State is 2-2. losing their last 2 by at least 16 points each, but they have a 4-game home winning streak, and have won 9 of their last 10 in Kidd Brewer Stadium. OSU is 0-5, with only their most recent loss to Houston (27-24 in OT) by less than 9 points. This is one of their few chances for a win for the remainder of the season, so I think the Beavers take advantage of it. OSU wins.
Virginia @ Louisville- The Cardinals are 8-5 against the Cavaliers, winning the last 3, each by 7 points or less. In fact, only 1 of the last 6 meetings have been decided by more than 7 points, and that was a 31-17 UVA victory in 2020. UL is 4-0/1-0, winning by 3 last week at Pitt, and they've won 4 home games in a row and 7 of their last 9 home games. The Wahoos are 4-1/2-0, but 0-1 on the road this year, losing 3 consecutive games away from Scott Stadium, and 4 of their last 5. Once again, I'm tempted to go with the Hoos for the upset, but UL gets the win at home.
Syracuse @ SMU- The Mustangs are 1-0 vs the Orange, winning 16-6 in their only prior meeting. In 1932! And now they're in the same conference! The Cuse is 3-2/1-1, losing by 35 last week just 1 game after winning by 13 at Clemson. SMU is 2-2/0-0, losing to current Big 12 (and former SWC mates) Baylor and TCU, with no real quality wins. This is a tough one, because the Mustangs were expected to build on their success from last year and have fallen short so far, while the Orange have been maddeningly inconsistent, looking great one week and hopeless the next. SMU wins at home.
FIU @ UConn- This series is tied at 1 win apiece, with each team winning in the other's stadium. The Panthers are 2-2 with a win over rival FAU, but a 22-point loss to FBS newcomer Delaware. The Huskies are 3-2, with both losses in OT to Syracuse and that same Delaware team, and 2 wins over teams from the MAC. Even though FIU was off last week, I feel UConn is the better team. Huskies win a high-scoring game.
James Madison @ Georgia State- The Dukes lead 4-0 over the Panthers, with the last 2 wins by at least 28 points each. JMU is 3-1/1-0 with wins over Liberty and Ga Southern, and their lone loss to Louisville. GSU is 1-3/0-0 with no FBS wins, and all 3 losses by at least 22 points, but they did have a bye last week. HC Dell McGee may yet prove to be the right coach at the right time for the Panthers, but this isn't the time. Dukes win.
Central Michigan @ Akron- The Chippewas hold a 19-10-1 advantage over the Zips, winning the last 3, and 13 of the last 15 (since 1998). CMU is 3-2/1-0 with both losses at P4 teams. Akron is 1-4/0-1 with no FBS wins, and the Zips just got crushed by Toledo last week. Chips win.
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo- The Eagles have a slight 7-5 lead in the series, but the Bulls have won 4 of the last 5, including 37-20 last year. However, EMU won the last time these 2 played in UB Stadium. Buffalo is 2-3/1-0, with losses the last 2 weeks to Troy and UConn by a combined 7 points. The Eagles are 1-4/0-1, but they've played a tougher schedule. EMU wins a low-scoring game.
Miami, Oh @ Northern Illinois- Both teams come into this game at 1-3/0-0 with no FBS wins and losses to 4 P4 teams on the road and to 2 MWC teams at home (by a combined 6 points). NIU has yet to score 20 points in a game, and they've held 3 of 4 opponents to 20 or less. Miami has scored 38 in each of their last 2 games (1 win, 1 loss), but they've also allowed 41+ points twice. The Redhawks lead this series 12-9, winning the last 4 (since 2018), and they also have a win in the 2010 MAC Championship Game over the Huskies. Miami wins.
Kent State @ Oklahoma- The Sooners won 33-3 in 2022, and even though QB John Mateer won't play in this game, OU would win this one with me at QB. The Golden Flashes have been one of the worst teams since the start of the 2023 season, as they have gone 2-26 the last 2+ seasons, with both wins over FCS teams and a 25-game FBS losing streak. Sooners flatten the Golden Flashes.
Michigan State @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers lead this series 9-3, including a win in the 2003 Alamo Bowl, but the Spartans have won the last 2, and 4 of the last 6 (since 2023). NU is 3-1/0-1, losing to Michigan 2 weeks ago before their bye week, and handing Cincinnati their only loss so far. MSU is also 3-1/0-1, losing at USC 2 weeks ago before their off week, with their signature win a 2-point double OT victory over Boston College. These 2 teams appear to be very similar. Huskers win, as they have the better scoring defense.
Texas State @ Arkansas State- The Red Wolves have a 7-5 edge in this series, but the Bobcats have won 4 of the last 5, including 41-9 last year, but with only 1 win in Jonesboro (2021). ASU is 1-4/0-1 with no FBS wins, but 2 of their losses were within 8 points. TSU is 3-1, with this game as their SBC opener, with their only loss at Arizona State. Bobcats win.
Coastal Carolina @ ODU- This series is tied 2-2, with the Chanticleers winning each of the last 2 years, but the Monarchs own a 63-35 win in the 2nd round of the 2012 Division I-AA Playoffs. This year, ODU is 3-1/0-0 with wins over Liberty and at Va Tech, and their only loss at undefeated Indiana. CCU is 2-2/1-0 with losses to ECU and at Virginia and a win over South Alabama from the West Division. This is likely to be a close game, but I like ODU's defense to be the difference. Monarchs win.
Texas Tech @ Houston- The Cougars hold a narrow 18-16-1 lead in the series, but the Red Raiders have won 6 in a row, and 11 of the last 12 (since 1991). Both teams are 4-0/1-0, but have gotten there through different paths. TTU has scored at least 34 points in every game, breaking 60 points twice, while UH's offense has scored between 27 and 35 points in every game so far. And while the Cougar defense has a shutout, and hasn't allowed more than 24 points (27-24 win in OT last week at Oregon State) in any game, the Red Raiders have yet to allow more than 14 points, including to that same OSU team in week 3. Texas Tech wins.
UNLV @ Wyoming- The Cowboys lead the series 14-12, winning 5 of the last 7 (since 2011) and 10 of the last 13 (since 2004), and the last 6 played in Laramie (since 2003), but the Rebels won the last matchup 34-14 in 2023. UNLV is 4-0/0-0 with a win over UCLA, while Wyoming is 2-2/0-0, losing their last 2 to Utah and at Colorado. Both teams were off last week. Rebels prevail.
South Alabama @ Troy- The Trojans lead this series 9-4, winning 6 of the last 7, but the Jaguars won 25-9 last year. However, SA hasn't won in Troy since 2017, losing 3 straight in Veterans Memorial Stadium. Troy is 2-2/0-0 with losses to Memphis and at Clemson; the Jags are 1-4/0-1 with no FBS wins and an SBC loss to CCU at home. Troy wins at home.
FAU @ Rice- The (Rice) Owls lead the (FAU) Owls 3-2 in this series, and lead 2-1 in Houston. This year FAU is 1-3/0-1 with no FBS wins and losses to Memphis and at Maryland and FIU. Rice seems to be improved at 3-2/1-1 losing at Navy last week. A win here would match Rice's win total from last year and go a long way toward getting to bowl eligibility; a loss would make that difficult, as they have a challenging remaining schedule that includes games: at UTSA; UConn, Memphis and UNT at home; and at USF in their final contest. Owls win. Rice Owls, that is.
Minnesota @ Ohio State- This is one of the more lopsided series, as the Buckeyes lead 47-7 (87%), winning the last 13 on the field (includes a vacated win in 2010), but Minnesota's last win, in 2000, came in Columbus. Let's not overthink this. OSU buries the Golden Gophers.
Miami, Fl @ FSU- This series began in 1951, and has been played every year since 1969, even including a Miami win in the 2004 Orange Bowl. The Hurricanes lead 36-33, winning 36-14 last year (just about everyone beat FSU last year), but the Seminoles have won 3 of the last 4, and the last 2 played in Tallahassee. This was shaping up to be a Top-10 matchup between 2 undefeated teams until the Noles lost to UVA last Friday. Even with the loss, it would seem FSU has an advantage, since they played on Friday instead of Saturday. Except the Canes were off last weekend. FSU has been steady on offense and tough on defense (except against Virginia), while Miami has been inconsistent on offense and lights out on defense. Canes win.
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M- This series is tied with 9 wins apiece, and the Aggies winning the last 2, but since the MSU victory in the 2000 Independence Bowl, it's still tied at 7-7. That means the teams were 2-2 against each other in the other 4 meetings, which all took place between 1912 and 1937. Where TAMU has an advantage is games played in College Station: the Aggies are 4-2 at Kyle Field. This year, the Bulldogs are 4-1/0-1, losing in OT last week to Tennessee. TAMU is 4-0/1-0, with a big win at Notre Dame, and winning 8 of their last 9 at home. Aggies win, but don't be surprised if MSU pulls the upset.
Colorado @ TCU- The Buffaloes and Horned Frogs are each 1-0 in the other's stadium, so if that trend continues, CU has the advantage. However, the Buffs are only 2-3/0-2, and mediocre on both offense and defense. TCU is 3-1/0-1, losing by 3 at Arizona State, and they've won 6 home games in a row. Horned Frogs win easily.
Kansas @ UCF- The Jayhawks have a 51-22 win in 2023 in Lawrence in the only previous meeting between these 2 teams. The Knights are 3-1/0-1, losing at Kansas State last week. KU is 3-2/1-1 with a win over WVU and a 3-point loss to Cincinnati. I'm still skeptical about the whole Scott Frost returning thing, so I'm going with the Jayhawks to get the win on the road.
Tulsa @ Memphis- The Tigers hold a 20-12 lead, winning the last time these 2 met in 2023, as they've won 6 of the last 8, and 3 of the last 4 played in Memphis. Memphis is one of the best G5 teams in FBS this year; the Golden Hurricane is decidedly not, though they have been more competitive. Tigers win.
Duke @ California- This is just the kind of matchup we all dreamed about when 2 of the 4 leftover Pac 12 teams joined the ACC. That's sarcasm, by the way, in case you missed it. The Blue Devils lead the series 1-0-1, winning in 1962 in Durham and tying 22-22 in 1963 in Berkeley. I think it's safe to say that this time, there won't be a tie in Berkeley. The Golden Bears are off to a nice 4-1/1-0 start, but that 34-0 loss to SDSU is still baffling. Duke is 3-2/2-0, with losses to Illinois and at Tulane, but ACC wins over NC State and at Syracuse. It's a long trip, but the Blue Devils will return triumphant.
Nevada @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs have a 33-22-1 advantage, winning the last 4, and 9 of the last 13 (since 2012). However, the Wolf Pack have won 2 of the last 5 played in Fresno. Both teams had a bye week last week. Nevada is 1-3/0-0 with no FBS wins; FS is 4-1/1-0 with win at Hawaii and Oregon State, and their only loss at Kansas. Bulldogs win.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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