Paul's Picks 2025 Week 7
Welcome Back!
Last week, I had my worst week so far, finishing 38-13 (74.5%), making me 336-79 overall with a winning percentage of 81.0% (down 0.9% from last week).
This week we are back up to 56 games, 5 more than last week, and there are some good matchups. I'm only 1-1 so far after last night's games. Let's see if I can stay above 80%.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 9
La Tech @ Kennesaw State- The Bulldogs defeated the Owls 33-0 last year in their only previous matchup, but this time the game will be played in Fifth Third Bank Stadium. KSU is 3-2/1-0 in their 2nd season at the FBS level, and are riding a 3-game winning streak with all of those at home, and a road loss by 1 at Wake Forest. However, LT is 4-1/2-0 with their only loss at LSU. Interestingly, both teams were off last Saturday, and will be off next Saturday as well. I expect a good game, but think the Bulldogs are headed for the CUSA Championship Game. LT wins.
East Carolina @ Tulane- The Pirates own a 12-8 lead in the series, but the Green Wave has won 5 of the last 6 (since 2017), and the last 3 played in New Orleans. Tulane is 4-1/1-0, with wins over Northwestern and Duke and their only loss at Ole Miss. ECU is 3-2/1-0, with a close loss at NC State and a not-so-close loss to BYU at home, but they have a shutout of CCU and a win over Army. Both teams were off last week (which seems to be a theme so far...). The Green Wave washes over the Pirates, but ECU will give them a fight.
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston- The Gamecocks hold a narrow 3-2 edge, winning the last 2, with both games within 10 points each. The teams are 1-1 in Huntsville. The Bearkats have already had two bye weeks (they have one more), and it hasn't helped, as they are 0-5/0-2 with every loss by at least 17 points. JSU hasn't been much better, though they are 2-3/1-0, with a win over Liberty and losses to 2 SBC teams and at UCF, 2 of those by 7 points each. Jax State wins.
Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern- The Golden Eagles have a 70-0 win in the only prior meeting, but that was in Hattiesburg, and it was in 1941, 84 years ago. I dare say college football has changed a bit since then. The Eagles are 2-3/0-1, losing at JMU 2 weeks ago. USM is 3-2/1-0, topping App State in game #3. Both teams were off last week. This is a coin flip type of game, and usually I go with the home team for those, but I have a feeling the Eagles will soar. USM wins.
Friday, October 10
USF @ North Texas- The Bulls have a 2-0 advantage, winning games in 2001 and 2002. The Mean Green are 5-0/1-0, and they've scored at least 33 points in every game, but they've allowed 30+ twice. USF is 4-1/1-0 with wins over Boise State and at Florida, and they've actually scored 54+ twice, but did allow 49 to Miami while holding 3 of their other 4 opponents to 16 points or less. The winner of this game will be well positioned to land the spot opposite Memphis (most likely) in the American Conference Championship Game. The Bulls have a tougher remaining schedule than UNT, so this one is a little more must-win for them. My heart says UNT, but my brain says don't listen to that fool. Bulls win.
Rutgers @ Washington- The Huskies lead 2-1, but the Scarlet Knights won 21-18 last year in Piscataway. U-Dub is coming off a comeback win over Maryland, and at 4-1/1-1 are still in the Big Ten race. Rutgers is 3-2/0-2, losing to Iowa and at Minnesota, but they were off last week. Cross country trips are tough, even after a bye week. Huskies win.
Fresno State @ Colorado State- The Rams have a 10-7 lead in this series, but the Bulldogs have won the last 2, both played in Fresno, with CSU winning 2 of the last 3 played in Ft. Collins. FS has had a stellar start to their season at 5-1/2-0, with their lone loss at Kansas, but their MWC wins were by a combined 5 points over Hawaii and Nevada. The Rams are 1-4/0-1. with no FBS wins, and 3 of their 4 losses by at least 17 points each. Bulldogs win.
Saturday, October 11
Ohio State @ Illinois - The Buckeyes hold a commanding 68-30-4 lead, winning the last 9 on the field (since 2008, with the win in 2010 vacated), and 12 of the last 13 (since 2002). The Fighting Illini have not won in Columbus since 2007, but their last 5 wins in the series have come in Ohio Stadium. At 5-0/2-0, OSU is well on their way to repeating as national champions, as they have yet to be truly challenged, and their defense has yet to give up more than 9 points in any game (25 total points in the 5 games, and 9 total allowed in the 2 Big Ten games). Illinois is 5-1/2-1, and has mostly looked impressive except for their 1 loss to Indiana. An upset here could propel the Illini to a Big Ten CG appearance, as they have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, and even a loss won't knock them out of CFP consideration, but they would need to run the table the rest of the way. I expect a fairly close game, maybe even into the 2nd half, but I just don't see the Bucks losing. OSU wins, perhaps pulling away at the end to make the margin bigger than the victory (game closer than the score might indicate).
Alabama @ Missouri- The Crimson Tide lead this series 6-2, winning the last 6. The Tigers won the 1st 2 contests, in the 1968 Gator Bowl and in 1975, but the Tide have won all the other meetings since 1978, including in the 2014 SEC CG, and 34-0 last year. In fact, every one of Bama's victories have been by at least 18 points. Mizzou is 5-0/1-0, and this is their 6th consecutive home game, as they have yet to play outside Faurot Field this season. Alabama is 4-1/2-0, winning 4 in a row after an opening loss on the road at FSU. The Tigers aren't getting much respect for a team that is 26-5 (.839 win pct) over the last 2+ seasons, and that's because they haven't beaten any of the "big boys"- their biggest win is most likely over a 9-4 Tennessee team in 2023. The Tide wins, but I'm guessing the margin will be less than 18 pts, and I wouldn't be surprised by a Mizzou upset.
Pitt @ FSU- Surprisingly, the Panthers hold a 6-5 lead in this series, winning 4 of the last 6 (since 1981), but the Seminoles have a 2-1 lead this century (since 2013). However, Pitt has won 3 of the 5 contests played in Tallahassee, with FSU last winning at home in 1980. Both teams are 3-2 overall, but the Panthers are 1-1 in the ACC while the Noles are 0-2. FSU is going to get their 1st ACC win sometime, so it may as well be now. Seminoles win.
UCLA @ Michigan State- This series is tied 3-3, with the Spartans winning the 1st 3- in the 1954 and 1956 Rose Bowls and in 1965- and the Bruins winning the last 3- in the 1966 Rose Bowl, and in 1973 and 1974. They've only played in East Lansing twice, with each team winning once. MSU is 3-2/0-2, with both losses on the road at USC and Nebraska, both by 11+ points. UCLA is 1-4/1-1, scoring a huge upset last week over Penn State. Can the Bruins sustain last week's success and win 2 in a row? My guess is no. Spartans win at home.
Stanford @ SMU- Each team has a win against the other, with the Cardinal winning 7-0 in the 1936 Rose Bowl and the Mustangs winning 40-10 last year. SMU is 3-2/1-0 with both losses to Big 12 (and old Southwest Conference) rivals. Stanford is 2-3/1-1, with a 10-point win over woeful BC and a 1-point win over SJSU. Ponies trample the Cardinal.
UCF @ Cincinnati- This is yet another tied series, each team winning 5 times. The Knights have won 2 of the last 3, and won the last time they played in Nippert Stadium, but the Bearcats won 19-13 last year. All of the meetings have taken place since 2015. This is where we find out if 4-1/2-0 Cincinnati can handle success after their big win over Iowa State last week. UCF has no such concerns, as they are 3-2/0-2 after losing their last 2. Bearcats win.
Houston @ Oklahoma State- Once again, this series is tied at 10-10-1, as the teams have alternated winning the last 7 matchups (since 1970). The Cougars are 4-1/1-1, suffering their 1st loss of the season last week against Texas Tech at home. The Cowboys are a miserable 1-4/0-2, and have lost 13 straight FBS contests, with only 4 of those closer than 10 points. Houston comes out on top.
Louisiana @ James Madison- The Dukes and Ragin' Cajuns will be meeting on the gridiron for the very first time. UL is 2-3, but 1-0 in the SBC with an OT win over Marshall, and they will be coming out of their off week. JMU is 4-1/2-0 with wins over both SBC schools located in Georgia. The Dukes have won 7 of their last 8 played in Brideforth Stadium while the Cajuns are 0-2 on the road this season (but 6-0 last year!). James Madison wins at home.
Charlotte @ Army- The Black Knights are 2-3/1-2, coming off an 18-point win at UAB, but they are 0-2 at home, including a loss to FCS Tarleton State by 3 in 2 OTs. The 49ers are 1-4/0-2 with no FBS wins, and their closest loss by 11 points to Rice. The caissons go rolling along in this 1st time meeting.
Miami @ Akron- The Redhawks hold a commanding 23-9-1 lead, winning each of the last 7 (since 2017), with Akron not scoring more than 21 points in any of those contests, and in 3 of the last 4 meetings were held below 10 points. This year, the Zips are 2-4/1-1 and coming off of a win over CMU, their 1st FBS and MAC win of the season, but their 3rd MAC win in their last 4 conference games. Miami is 2-3/1-0, topping NIU last week for their 1st FBS and MAC wins. Redhawks swoop in and demolish the Zips.
Toledo @ Bowling Green- The Rockets hold a narrow 43-42-4 lead in the series, winning 12 of the last 15, and the last 2 played in Doyt Perry Stadium, but the Falcons have won 2 of the last 3. BGSU is 2-3/0-1 losing at Ohio last time out. Toledo is 3-2/1-1, smashing Akron by 42 in their last game. Both teams were off last week. This game could go either way, but you could say that about most MAC games, which is why I'm so terrible at picking winners in that conference. Toledo wins.
Washington State @ Ole Miss- To no one's surprise, this is a 1st time matchup. The Cougars are 3-2, and have lost 3 of their last 4 away from The Palouse. The Rebels are 5-0 and riding high. Both teams had a bye last week, but it doesn't really matter, as Ole Miss would win regardless of the circumstances, but especially at home to extend a 7-game home winning streak (they've won 17 of their last 18 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium).
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan- The Huskies have a 36-16-2 advantage over the Eagles, winning the last 3, and 14 of the last 16, including 7 of the last 8 in Ypsilanti. EMU is 1-5/0-2 with only a win over SBC member Louisiana, and a loss to an FCS team. This looks like it will be the Eagles' worst season since they were 2-4 in 2020. NIU is 1-4/0-1, with no FBS wins. Flip a coin. The Huskies continue their dominance over the Eagles.
UMass @ Kent State- This game is between 2 of the worst teams in all of FBS. These teams split 2 games in 2014 and 2015 in their only previous meetings, with the visiting team winning each time. The Minutemen are 0-5/0-1, losing to an FCS team, and their closest FBS loss was by 18 points last week to WMU. UMass has allowed 42+ to 3 of 5 opponents, and have scored more than 10 points on offense only once- against the FCS team they lost to by 1 point. The Golden Flashes are 1-4/0-1, but do have a win against their FCS foe, by 4 points. On offense, the Flashes have scored 21+ twice, but were also shut out last week at Oklahoma, and their defense has allowed 31+ points to every FBS opponent, and 62+ twice. Hoo boy... KSU wins. I guess. Maybe.
Indiana @ Oregon- The Ducks have a 2-1 lead in the series, winning in 1963 and 1964, but the Hoosiers have the most recent win, in 2004, the only time this has been played in Eugene (it was played in Portland in 1963). Both teams are 5-0/2-0, and both were off last week. I'm going with the Quack Attack, not because I don't think IU can win, but because I believe UO is one of the best teams in all of CFB, and because they are playing this game in Autzen Stadium.
Oklahoma vs Texas (Dallas)- The Longhorns hold a 64-51-5 lead in this series, winning 2 of the last 3 (by a combined 83-3), but the Sooners have been the more dominant team of late, winning 7 of the last 10. This game has been played annually in Dallas every year since 1929, making the Red River Rivalry the longest continuous neutral site contest in CFB history. OU is 5-0/1-0, but are likely to be without the services of starting QB John Mateer, though it's possible he could play. UT is 3-2/0-1 losing to Florida in The Swamp last week, and they've generally been inconsistent on offense. Both teams have played well on defense, with the Horns holding their 1st 4 opponents to a combined 31 points before allowing 29 to the Gators last week, and the Sooners allowing a total of 36 points, holding 3 foes to 3 points or less each (Auburn scored the most against them, at 17 points). I expect a defensive struggle with points at a premium, so of course there will probably be an offensive explosion by one or both teams. OU wins.
Northwestern @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions have a 16-5 lead in the series, winning the last 3, and 9 of the last 11 (since 2005). The Wildcats are 3-2/1-1, losing to Oregon by 20, but they did beat UCLA by 3. PSU is also 3-2, but they are 0-2 in the Big Ten, losing to both Oregon (by 6 in OT) and to UCLA (by 5). Based on the comparative scores, you would think that NU would be favored, but shockingly, that is not the case. Penn State wins. Or at least they better, or HC Franklin will really be on the hot seat.
Iowa State @ Colorado- The Buffaloes have dominated this series to the tune of a 48-16-1 lead, meaning they've won almost 3 out of every 4 meetings. However, the last 6 matchups, between 2005 and 2010, are even at 3 wins apiece, with the home team winning each time. By the way, the tie was a 10-10 affair back in 1965 in Boulder. The Cyclones have not won in Boulder since 1982 (14 straight losses at Folsom Field), when they were in the midst of winning 3 in a row, and 5 out of 6 between 1978 and 1983. This year, the Buffs are 2-4/0-3, but were competitive in losses to Ga Tech and BYU. ISU is 5-1/2-1, losing last week at Cincinnati, making them 2-1 away from Jack trice Stadium this season. Cyclones blow through Colorado.
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech- The Hokies hold a 12-8 lead in this series, winning 21-6 last year, and 3 of the last 4, but the Yellow Jackets have won 4 of the last 7, with only one of those wins in Atlanta (1-2 in Bobby Dodd Stadium). VT is 2-4/1-1, beating NC State by 2 and losing to Wake Forest by 7 last week. GT is 5-0/2-0, and a win here and at Duke next week would give them a clear path to the ACC CG and a CFP berth. Jackets win big.
NC State @ Notre Dame- The Wolfpack won the 1st 2 meetings between these 2 teams, in the 2003 Gator Bowl and in 2016, but the Fighting Irish have won the last 2, in 2017 and 2023. NCSU has been decidedly mediocre for many years, and just when I think they may have turned the corner, they lose to an underdog. Such is the way this year, as they started 3-0 (and the only team to beat Virginia so far) and then losing at Duke (by 12) and vs Va Tech to stand at 4-2. The Irish are only 3-2, but are on a 3-game winning streak after losing their 1st 2 games to current Top 10 teams Miami (by 3) and Texas A&M (by 1). ND crushes the Wolfpack.
Nebraska @ Maryland- I know we're all excited to see the renewal of this storied rivalry, which the Cornhuskers lead 2-1, and 1-0 in College Park. The Terrapins have the last win, however, in 2023. Both teams are 4-1/1-1, with NU losing to Michigan by 3 and the Terps losing to Washington by 4 last weekend, with each loss at home. I have no idea who will win this game (or who is even favored, as I don't really keep up with gambling), but I'm going with the Huskers.
Wake Forest @ Oregon State- I think the Demon Deacons are a pretty good team, as they own a win over Va Tech and a close 1-point defeat to Ga Tech, but they've been inconsistent, as their 1-point win over Kennesaw State and 10-point loss to NC State can attest. The Beavers are not a good team, as they are the only FBS team with an 0-6 record, and this is one of their few "winnable" games left. WF wins.
TCU @ Kansas State- This has been a disaster of a year for the Wildcats, as they have been virtually eliminated from winning the Big 12 at 2-4/1-2, barring a miraculous 6-0 run to end the season. To be fair, KSU has been plenty unlucky, losing their 4 games by a combined 14 points (loss at Arizona by 7). The Horned Frogs are 4-1/1-1 losing only to Arizona State by 3 in Tempe. I still think the Wildcats are a good team, but just snake bit. Frogs leap over the Cats.
Air Force @ UNLV- The Falcons have a large 18-7 lead in this series, winning 5 of the last 6, but the Rebels won the last contest 31-27 in 2023. Unfortunately, UNLV hasn't won this game at home since 2012, losing 3 in a row here. The Air Force Academy is only 1-4/0-3 this year with their only win over an FCS school. The Rebels are the Mountain West Conference's best (only?) hope for having a team in the CFP. UNLV wins.
App State @ Georgia State- The Panthers have never defeated the Mountaineers in 11 tries, and even though ASU is only 3-2/0-1, GSU won't win this year, either. App State wins, meaning Ga State still won't have an FBS win this season.
ODU @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd hold a huge 9-1 lead in this series, with ODU's only win coming in 2016. The Monarchs are having a good start to their season, though, as at 4-1/1-0, they have already defeated Va Tech, Liberty, and CCU, and their only loss is to undefeated Indiana. Marshall is 2-3/0-1, with 2 close losses. ODU wins.
Ball State @ Western Michigan- The Broncos lead the series 29-22, winning the last 3, and 8 of the last 11. The Cardinals are 2-3/1-0, upsetting 2024 MAC champion Ohio 20-14 last week. WMU is 3-3/2-0, and on a 3-game winning streak that includes a 14-13 win over MAC preseason favorite Toledo. This is actually a good game, as I think both teams have potential. I'm going with the home team. Broncos win.
Navy @ Temple- The Midshipmen hold a close 10-9 lead in this series, winning 4 of the last 5, including 38-11 last year, but the Owls won the last time this was played in Philadelphia, and own a 34-10 win in the 2016 AAC CG. Navy is 5-0/3-0, and looks like a favorite to win the American Conference. Temple is 3-2/1-0 and coming off a 27-21 win over UTSA. Navy wins, but the Owls will not be easy to subdue.
Arkansas @ Tennessee- The Volunteers lead this series 13-7, but the Razorbacks have won the last 4 (since 2011), including 19-14 last year, but only one of those 4 wins (2015) was in Knoxville, as the Hogs are only 1-6 in Neyland Stadium. The Vols, however, own wins in the 1971 Liberty and 1990 Cotton Bowls. UT is 4-1/1-1 with their only loss in OT to Georgia at home, but they've won 10 of their last 11 at home. UA is only 2-3/0-1, and they will be playing their 1st game under interim/previous HC Bobby Petrino, and I'm sure he'll have some changes after the off week. Vols demolish the Razorbacks.
UAB @ FAU- The Owls have a 6-4 series lead, including a win in the 2019 CUSA Championship Game as well as being 4-1 in games played in Florida (2-0 in Boca Raton), but the Blazers won the last matchup 45-42 in 2023. FAU is 2-3/1-1 with a win at Rice last week. UAB is 2-3/0-2 with their lone FBS win over Akron and losses to both Army and Navy by a combined 32 points. Owls swoop in and de-flame the Blazers.
Florida @ Texas A&M- The Aggies hold a 4-3 edge, winning 33-20 last year in Gainesville, and they also have a win in the 1977 Sun Bowl. The Gators are off to a rough start, as they are 2-3, but they're 1-1 in the SEC after their upset win over Texas last week, and all 3 losses are to teams currently ranked in the AP Poll. TAMU is 5-0/2-0 with wins over Notre Dame in South Bend and Auburn at home, as they've won 9 of their last 10 at Kyle Field. UF has lost 4 of their last 6 away from The Swamp, so I'm going with the Aggies in a close one.
Iowa @ Wisconsin- These teams have played 98 times, with the Badgers holding a slim 49-47-2 lead, but the Hawkeyes have won the last 3. This series has been marked by long stretches of dominance by each team, with UW winning as many as 6 in a row and Iowa winning 17 out of 18 at one point (the other was a tie). The Hawkeyes are 3-2/1-1, defeating Rutgers and losing to undefeated Indiana by just 5, and they were off last week. The Badgers are 2-3/0-2, losing 3 in a row, all by at least 14 points. Iowa wins their 4th straight in the series.
San Jose State @ Wyoming- The Spartans and Cowboys have met 14 times, with each team winning 7. However, SJSU has won the last 3, and 2 of the last 3 played in Laramie. Both teams are 2-3, but the Spartans have a win over New Mexico while Wyoming has a loss to UNLV in conference play. Spartans win.
ULM @ Coastal Carolina- The Warhawks have won 3 of the 5 prior meetings, but the Chanticleers have won the last 2, though they haven't played since 2022. ULM is 3-2/1-0 with a win over Arkansas State; CCU is 2-3/1-1, with an 18-point win over South Alabama and a 40-point loss to ODU. This game could go either way, so I'm going with the Warhawks to win.
Kansas @ Texas Tech- The Red Raiders have an overwhelming 23-2 lead in this series, winning the last 4. The Jayhawks did get one of their 2 wins in Lubbock, but that was back 2001. This year KU is 4-2/2-1, with wins over WVU and UCF and a loss to a surprisingly good Cincinnati Bearcats team. TTU is off to an astonishing 5-0/2-0 start to the season, with every win by at least 24 points, including over Utah and Houston on the road, handing each of those teams their only loss so far. The Jayhawks may hang for a while, because they are a quality Big 12 team, but the Red Raiders will get victory #6 to become bowl eligible.
Georgia @ Auburn- The Deep South's Oldest Rivalry has been played 129 times, with the Bulldogs holding a 65-56-8 lead after winning the last 8, and 17 of the last 20, including a win in the 2017 SEC Championship Game. This game has been played every year since 1892, with the exceptions of 1893, 1897, 1917-18 (WWI), and 1943 (WWII), and for a while was played in Atlanta, then Macon, Ga, then Montgomery, Al, then Savannah, Ga, and then back in Atlanta before finally settling in Columbus, Ga (on the Alabama border) from 1916 through 1958, except for 2 games in Athens- in 1929 right after the original Sanford Stadium was built, and in 1949 (a 10-10 tie). Beginning in 1959, the teams have alternated home-and-home, and for a while, it seemed that the visiting team won more than the home team, and there were upsets both ways (so many upsets...) that spoiled SEC championship hopes for both teams. This is the series that had the 1st OT game in SEC history, and it went into 4 OTs, and Auburn is the only team against which my beloved Dawgs had a losing record against during my 4 years there, as we were 1-3 against the Tigers from 1982-85 (we were also 0-1 against Penn State, losing in the 1983 Sugar Bowl costing us a national championship- so I guess there were 2 teams we had losing records against- and 2-2 vs Ga Tech, and weirdly, 0-0-1 vs FSU and Arizona, both in bowl games). Anyway, the Plainsmen were the trendy pick during preseason to hand UGA a loss, and they've started the season just 3-2/0-2, but both losses were away from Jordan-Hare Stadium, and the War Eagles had a bye last week. The Dawgs are 4-1/2-1 with wins over Tennessee (their only loss) and Kentucky, and a loss at home to Alabama. One interesting stat is that while Bama broke a 33-game home winning streak for UGA, the Bulldogs are only 2-2 in their last 4 true road games. Auburn's backs are against the wall, and I see them having some new wrinkles for the Dawgs, but UGA scores late to notch a narrow victory.
Michigan @ USC- The Trojans are 6-5 in this series, with 8 of the 11 matchups in the Rose Bowl- in 1948, 1970, 1977, 1979, 1989, 1990, 2004, and 2007. USC won 6 of those 8, but the Wolverines have won all 3 non-bowl meetings, winning once in LA (in 1957) and twice in Ann Arbor- in 1958 and 27-24 last year. UM is 4-1/2-0 with wins over Nebraska and Wisconsin and their only loss to undefeated Oklahoma on the road. USC is 4-1/2-1 with wins over Purdue and Michigan State, and a last-minute loss at Illinois. Since the Trojans were off last week, I'm picking them to win at home.
Purdue @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers lead this series 41-35-3, winning 8 of the last 11, but the Boilermakers have won the last 2, in 2022 and '23. Minnesota is 3-2/1-1, defeating Rutgers and being routed by Ohio State. Purdue is 2-3/0-2, losing to USC and Illinois, both at home, and they have an 11-game losing streak on the road. Gophers win.
Clemson @ Boston College- The Tigers hold a commanding 21-9-2 lead in the series, winning each of the last 12 (since 2011). The Eagles are 1-4/0-3 with no FBS wins. CU is 2-3/1-2 after a win at UNC last week. Tigers maul the Eagles.
Rice @ UTSA- The Roadrunners have doubled up the Owls, leading 8-4, but Rice won 29-27 last year. The Owls started the season 3-1, but have lost 2 straight and now sit at 3-3/1-2 with a win over Charlotte and close losses to Navy and FAU. UTSA is 2-3/0-1 losing at Temple last week. I'm tempted to go with Rice, but I got burned picking them last week. Roadrunners run away with the win.
South Carolina @ LSU- The Tigers hold a whopping 18-2-1 lead in the series, winning the last 8 on the field (2012 and 2015 wins have been vacated), and they also have a win in the 1987 Gator Bowl. SC's 2 wins came in 1994 (in Baton Rouge) and in the 1st meeting, in 1930. The tie was in 1995. The Bayou Bengals are 4-1/1-1 losing at Ole Miss in their most recent outing. The Gamecocks are 3-2/1-2, but their last game was a 35-13 win over Kentucky. Both teams were off last week. SC has gotten progressively better since their 24-point loss to Vandy in week 3, but both their offense and defense have been inconsistent. LSU has yet to break 23 points against FBS competition, but the Rebels are the only team that has scored more than 10 points against their defense. Tigers win in Death Valley.
BYU @ Arizona- The Cougars have forged a 13-12-1 lead in this series after winning the last 4 (since 2016), with Arizona's last win coming in the 2008 Las Vegas Bowl. BYU is 5-0/2-0 with wins over Colorado and WVU. The Wildcats are 4-1/1-1, losing to Iowa State (the only team to score more than 17 points against their defense) and besting Oklahoma State. One statistical oddity is that the Cougars have allowed increasing amounts of points, from a shutout in their opener to 3 points, 13, 21 and finally 24 points last week. BYU wins a real cat fight to stay unbeaten.
Troy @ Texas State- The Trojans have been dominant in this series, leading 13-2, but the Bobcats won 38-17 last year. TSU is 3-2/0-1, being upset by Arkansas State last week. Troy is 3-2/1-0, topping South Alabama last week in OT. This is a true coin flip game, but I'm going with the Bobcats at home.
New Mexico @ Boise State- The Lobos have only defeated the Broncos once in 14 tries, as BSU has won the last 7, but their lone win did come on the blue turf in Boise. UNM is 3-2/0-1 losing at SJSU by 7 last week. The Broncos are 3-2/1-0 with a win at Air Force, but they are coming out of a loss to Notre Dame last week. I expect the Lobos to play well, like they have most of the season, but they just don't have enough juice to finish the job. Broncos win.
Arizona State @ Utah- The Sun Devils lead the series 23-12, winning 27-19 last year, but the Utes have won 4 of the last 5, and the last 3 in Salt Lake City. Both teams are 4-1 overall, but ASU is 2-0 in the Big 12 with wins over TCU and Baylor by the exact same score of 27-24, while Utah is 1-1 in the conference, beating WVU, but losing to Texas Tech. Tough to pick this one, so go with the home team. Utes win.
San Diego State @ Nevada- The Aztecs hold a 9-7 lead, winning 2 of the last 3, and the last one played in Reno, but the Wolf Pack have won 4 of the last 6 (since 2018), including 6-0 in their last meeting in 2023. This year, SDSU is off to a super start at 4-1/1-0 with a win over Colorado State, as they have more wins already than they did all last year. Nevada 1-4/0-1 with no FBS wins. Aztecs win.
Utah State @ Hawaii- The Aggies lead this series 13-8, winning the last 8 (since 2011) and the last 4 played in Honolulu. The Rainbow Warriors are 4-2/1-1 with a 2-point loss to Fresno state and a 9-point win at Air Force. USU is 3-2/1-0 with a 19-point win over Air Force at home. This is yet another game where there is no clear favorite. Aggies win.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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