TWIF Notes 10/13/25
Welcome Back!
Wow! We had another upset weekend, and my predicting percentage took a hit (more on that in my Paul's Picks on Thursday). And there were 3 more coaches terminated!
This year, I decided to keep up with which teams I watch on tv, with a goal of seeing every team. Now, there is no way I can watch every team play a full game, so my criteria is seeing every team play at least one offensive and one defensive drive or series. So far, I have seen 123 of the 136 FBS teams, including every P4 team. I am only missing 3 teams from the Mountain West, 5 from the MAC, and 5 from CUSA. If that seems like I am prioritizing the G5 teams less, that is only partially true. My TV package does not include ESPN+ or CBS Sports Network, so I have to wait for teams to appear on Fox, CBS, NBC, ESPN, SEC, BTN, or ACC networks. I also have the MWC app (it's free!), which allows me to watch contests from the Mountain West Conference that don't appear on other networks. For this reason, I'm looking forward to the midweek games in the MAC, CUSA, and SBC this month and next so I can catch those that don't normally make the "big" networks. Oh, and I also can't stay up to watch the late night games; I'm way too old for that!
Anyway, let's get into this week's winners and losers.
Winners
Georgia- The Bulldogs survived Auburn, scoring 20 unanswered points to win 20-10. The game turned on a controversial Tigers' fumble at the goal line, as the War Eagles had been dominating the game up until that point. It was really odd how this game was a tale of 2 halves, with the Dawgs dominating the 2nd half. However, it may be time to accept that UGA is a really good team; just not a great one.
Texas- The Longhorns bounced back from their loss to Florida by trouncing Oklahoma 23-6. The defense dominated this game as they allowed only 2 FGs.
Alabama- The Crimson Tide faced their 6th consecutive undefeated team as they took down Missouri by a score of 27-24. They have handed 5 teams their 1st loss of the season after their opening loss at FSU, which seems to make less sense with each passing week. The Tide finally get to play a team with a loss as they host Tennessee this week.
Texas A&M- The Aggies stayed unbeaten with a 34-17 rout of Florida. TAMU has a clear path to the SEC CG, but 4 of their 5 remaining SEC games are on the road.
Ole Miss- the Rebels survived a classic "trap game", eking by Washington State 24-21. I'm sure they'll have no problems getting up for Georgia in Athens this weekend.
Ohio State- The Buckeyes just keep on rolling, pounding Illinois 34-16. They have few challenges remaining, with the biggest being Michigan on the road.
Indiana- The Hoosiers have proven that last year was no fluke with a 30-20 win over Oregon in Autzen Stadium. While there is certainly no guarantee they won't suffer a loss, the remaining games all look extremely winnable.
USC- The Trojans bounced Michigan 31-13, showing they have recovered from their loss at Illinois. However, they have a huge game at Notre Dame which could make or break their season.
UCLA- The Bruins have a winning streak! One week after outlasting Penn State, UCLA stomped Michigan State 38-13. How long can they keep this going before the bubble bursts? Unfortunately, they still have to play Indiana, Ohio State, and USC, all on the road. Ouch!
Northwestern- Don't look now, but the Wildcats are 4-2/2-1, matching their 2024 total for both overall and Big Ten wins. Their latest conquest was 22-21 over Penn State in (Un)Happy Valley, leading to the dismissal of Nittany Lion HC James Franklin.
Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets are 6-0/3-0 after defeating Va Tech 35-20. GT seems well on their way to being 11-1 at worst, which will get them back into the ACC title game for the first time since 2014.
Utah- The Utes demolished Arizona State 42-10 to improve to 5-1/2-1. The Holy War against BYU is this weekend, and that game could determine the direction of the season for both programs.
Texas Tech- The Red Raiders blasted Kansas 42-17, and at 6-0, have won all 6 games by at least 24 points each. Next up is Arizona State on the road. TTU should be favored in all of their remaining games, and are the favorite to nab one of the 2 spots in the Big 12 CG.
BYU- The Cougars topped Arizona 33-27 in 2 OTs to remain undefeated, and a win against Utah this weekend means they could be 8-0 when they travel to Lubbock in a few weeks.
Cincinnati- The Bearcats got by UCF 20-11 to get to 5-1 on the year, and 3-0 in the Big 12. Cincy seems to be much improved, but have huge tests against Baylor and at Utah coming up.
Colorado- The Buffaloes upset Iowa State 24-17 to get their 1st Big 12 win of the season.
UTSA- The Roadrunners destroyed Rice 61-13 to even their record in the American Conference at 1-1 and put themselves back in the race for a conference title.
Tulane- The Green Wave continue to live dangerously, as they are 5-1/2-0, with 3 of their 5 wins by 7 points or less.
USF- The Bulls broke open a close game to run away with a 63-36 win over previously undefeated North Texas. This team still has to play Memphis and Navy on the road, and UTSA at home.
Navy- The Naval Academy stayed undefeated at 6-0 with their closest win yet, 32-31 over Temple. The Midshipmen converted a gutsy 2-point play to secure the win.
UNLV- The Rebels won 51-48 against Air Force to remain unbeaten at 6-0. Their next game- at Boise State- could determine if they finish that way, as the rest of their schedule is manageable.
Colorado State- The Rams got their 1st FBS win by pounding Fresno State 49-21.
Hawaii- After the Rainbow Warriors bested Utah State 44-26, they are now just 1 win away from their 1st 6-win season since 2021. At 5-2/2-1, they are also in the thick of the MWC title chase, with a game at UNLV in late November possibly being the deciding game.
San Diego State- The Aztecs have a sneaky good 5-1/2-0 record to start the season, and they have opportunities for quality wins on their schedule, but the home game vs Boise State in mid-November looms large.
James Madison- The Dukes are now 5-1/3-0 after a 24-14 victory over Louisiana. JMU hosts a big contest against ODU this weekend.
Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles are 4-2/2-0 after winning both crossover games, this one 38-35 over Georgia Southern.
Troy- The Trojans have a 3-game winning streak after slipping by Texas State 48-41 in OT. Troy is off to a 2-0 start, winning both contests against fellow SBC West foes. The division may come down to the final game at Southern Miss.
Miami, Oh- The Redhawks have won 3 in a row after starting the season 0-3.
Western Michigan- The Broncos have won 3 consecutive games, all of them within the MAC to take an early lead in the conference.
Kent State- The Golden Flashes got their 1st FBS win since 2022 with a 42-6 win over UMass. Good for them!
Missouri State- The Bears earned their 1st ever CUSA win with a 22-20 victory over Middle Tennessee. After an off week, Mo State will travel to Las Cruces to take on NMSU.
Kennesaw State- The Owls crushed La Tech 35-7 to win their 4th game in a row. At 4-2/2-0, KSU has a chance to play for the CUSA championship, if they can keep the momentum going after their 2nd bye week of the last 3 weeks.
Losers
Oklahoma- The Sooners had a golden opportunity to put their stamp on this rivalry, but instead spit the bit as they lost to Texas 23-6. It was their fewest points scored since Texas beat them 34-3 last year.
Florida- The Gators were unable to sustain their momentum from last week, losing 34-17 at Texas A&M. While they have no easy games, UF has a decent chance at 3 more wins. The problem is that they need 4 more wins to make it to a bowl.
South Carolina- The Gamecocks are slipping back into mediocrity after a 9-4 season last year. Their 20-10 loss to LSU drops them to 3-3.
Auburn- The Tigers completely dominated UGA in the 1st half as they ran out to a 10-0 lead, and were on the verge of making it 17-0 when they fumbled at the goal line. Even after the fumble, the Plainsmen had everything in their favor, as the Dawgs needed to go 99 yards in less than 2 minutes. Auburn is a good team, but seems to lack resilience. As soon as something goes wrong, they seem to collapse. They need to stay in the moment and leave the whining and crying to the fans.
Arkansas- The Razorbacks have now lost 4 straight games after dropping a 34-31 decision to Tennessee. I'm not sure this team will win another game this season.
Missouri- The Tigers had a chance to make a statement, but instead fell 27-24 to Alabama, which ended their 15-game home winning streak. And now Mizzou finally gets to go on the road as they travel to Jordan-Hare stadium to take on Auburn.
Penn State- The Nittany Lions have fallen apart, as they lost a 3rd consecutive game, this time by a 22-21 score to Northwestern, and they are now 0-3 in the Big Ten. They lost this game, they lost star QB Drew Allar for the season, and now they've lost HC James Franklin. Terry Smith has been named the interim HC, being elevated from the Associate HC/cornerbacks coach/defensive recruiting coordinator. PSU still has 4 road games remaining, none of them easy, and home games vs Indiana and Nebraska.
Oregon- The Ducks were unable to match Indiana's physicality or coaching as they fell 30-20 at home to the Hoosiers. And with Penn State imploding, they have no real quality wins to their credit, and few chances for one on their remaining schedule.
Michigan- The Wolverines suffered their 1st Big Ten loss to USC by a score of 31-13, and though they have a relatively easy schedule remaining, it may take a 5th straight win over Ohio State to have any chance at a spot in the Big Ten CG.
Illinois- Though they have a win over USC at home, the Fighting Illini have 2 losses in the conference, so at this point, they're basically fighting for 3rd place in the Big Ten.
Wisconsin- The Badgers were shut out 37-0 by Iowa, and this is another team that may not win another game this season. How long a leash does HC Fickell have? There's already a bunch of P4 openings, and seems like more are open every week. Can UW afford to wait to start their search?
FSU- The Seminoles lost 34-31 to Pitt, which is their 3rd consecutive loss, dropping them to 3-3/0-3. All the good vibes from beating Alabama in the opener have evaporated. And it may be time to start wondering about HC Norvell's status.
Iowa State- The Cyclones have now lost 2 games in a row after a 5-0 start, this time 24-17 to Colorado. The chances are getting slimmer for ISU to make it back to the Big 12 CG for a 2nd year in a row.
Arizona State- The Sun Devils lost 42-10 to Utah, making it abundantly clear that this is not 2024 anymore.
TCU- The Horned Frogs suffered their 2nd Big 12 loss, dropping a 41-28 decision to Kansas State, a team that already had 3 conference losses. TCU will need to win out to have any chance to make the Big 12 CG, likely opposite Texas Tech.
Oregon State- The Beavers are 0-7 after losing 39-14 to Wake Forest. I only see a chance for 3 wins on the remaining schedule, and one of those is an FCS team. As a result, OSU has fired HC Trent Bray and replaced him with interim Robb Akey, former HC at Idaho from 2007-12.
North Texas- The Mean Green let a prime opportunity slip through their fingers as they proved themselves not big enough for the moment in a 63-36 loss to USF. They can still have their best season in years, but have games against UTSA and Navy still to play, with both at home.
UAB- The Blazers were routed by FAU, losing 53-33, and as a result, they have fired HC Trent Dilfer and replaced him with interim Alex Mortensen.
San Jose State- The Spartans lost 35-28 to a Wyoming team that came into the game on a 3-game losing streak. SJSU was expected to compete for a conference title, but at 2-4/1-1, they don't look like a championship team.
Air Force- The Falcons fell to 1-5/0-4 with a 51-48 loss at UNLV, and they've now lost 12 of their last 16 FBS games. Could Troy Calhoun be the next long-time HC to be let go?
ODU- The Monarchs were routed at Marshall by a 48-24 score as they fell to 4-2/1-1. With a tough game at James Madison this week, they may drop out of the SBC East race before it hardly begins.
Texas State- The Bobcats were upset by Troy 48-41 in OT, dropping their record to 3-3/0-2. Every team in the SBC West has at least 2 losses overall.
Toledo- The Rockets lost 28-21 to Bowling Green, and now every team in the MAC has at least 3 losses. In addition, preseason favorite Toledo is only 1-2 in the conference, with several tough games still to play.
Northern Illinois- The Huskies fall to 1-5/0-2 with their only win by 2 points over FCS Holy Cross.
UMass- The Minutemen stayed winless with a 42-6 loss to Kent State. This just may be the worst team in the FBS this season.
La Tech- The Bulldogs lost to Kennesaw State, which wouldn't be so bad, but they lost by 28 points, the biggest margin of victory for the Owls in their 1+ years at the FBS level. After a week off, LT hosts WKU, and a loss to the Hilltoppers could derail any hopes the Bulldogs have of winning CUSA this season.
Middle Tennessee- The Blue Raiders lost to CUSA/FBS newbie Missouri State by a score of 22-20. MTSU is giving UMass a run for their money as the worst team in FBS.
UTEP- The Miners dropped their 5th straight FBS game as they still don't have an FBS win this season. This time, they lost 19-8 to Liberty at home.
Sam Houston- The Bearkats remain winless at 0-6 after a 29-27 loss to rival Jax State. This was their closest loss yet, as their other 5 losses have been by at least 17 points.
Conference Races
Here is where the teams stand early in the season. This will be fluid throughout the season, as teams may move up or down.
SEC
Big Ten
ACC
Big 12
American
Mountain West
Sun Belt East
Sun Belt West
MAC
CUSA
That's it for this week! Come back tomorrow for my updated Power Rankings!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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