TWIF Notes 10/20/25
Welcome Back!
Wow! We had yet another upset weekend, and my predicting percentage took a huge hit (more on that in my Paul's Picks on Thursday). And there were 2 more coaches terminated!
This year, I decided to keep up with which teams I watch on tv, with a goal of seeing every team. Now, there is no way I can watch every team play a full game, so my criteria is seeing every team play at least one offensive and one defensive drive or series. So far, I have seen 126 of the 136 FBS teams, including every P4 team. I am only missing 2 teams from the Mountain West, 5 from the MAC, and 3 from CUSA. If that seems like I am prioritizing the G5 teams less, that is only partially true. My TV package does not include ESPN+ or CBS Sports Network, so I have to wait for teams to appear on Fox, CBS, NBC, ESPN, SEC, BTN, or ACC networks. I also have the MWC app (it's free!), which allows me to watch contests from the Mountain West Conference that don't appear on other networks. For this reason, I'm looking forward to the midweek games in the MAC, CUSA, and SBC this month and next so I can catch those that don't normally make the "big" networks. Oh, and I also can't stay up to watch the late night games; I'm way too old for that!
Anyway, let's get into this week's winners and losers. Just as a heads up, I've changed the way I'm presenting this week, moving more toward what I envisioned. I hope you like this new format!
Winners
The SEC- The SEC had 8 conference games, and 6 were decided by one score (8 points or less), and 2 went into OT, with one of those into double OT. Only the Alabama-Tennessee (37-20) and Oklahoma- South Carolina (26-7) games were routs, and both of those were competitive going into the 2nd half. This is the most parity I've seen in the conference in my lifetime.
James Madison- With the losses of teams at the top of the American Conference and the Mountain West, the Sun Belt may get a chance to get their champion into the CFP. The Dukes are 6-1, and if they can win out, including in the SBC CG, then they will have a chance to make the playoff, but much will depend on how the MWC and American Conference play out.
Georgia and Georgia Tech- The Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets continue to play with fire. The Dawgs once again fell behind early- and couldn't stop any 3rd down conversions by the opposing team, as they allowed 5 TDs on the 1st 5 drives- but once again came back for the win, this time by 43-35 over previously undefeated Ole Miss. And the Jackets followed a similar trajectory, except they actually played defense before the 2nd half rolled around, as they bested Duke 27-18. The 2 teams are a combined 13-1 and could be headed for a massive showdown in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in downtown Atlanta if they can keep pulling rabbits out of their hats.
Alabama and Vanderbilt- The Crimson Tide and Commodores are proving themselves to be contenders in the SEC and for CFP spots, as Vandy's only loss is to Bama, and Bama's is to FSU in their opener, a result that gets more baffling by the week.
Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Indiana, and Northwestern- These teams all routed their conference foes by at least 17 points each.
UCLA, Minnesota, and Iowa- The Bruins, Golden Gophers, and Hawkeyes won close contests to keep pace with the top teams of the Big Ten, as all 3 are 3-1 in the conference, but the Gophers travel to Iowa this week as the herd at the top begins to get thinned.
The ACC- The ACC has several teams vying for CFP at-large slots, as Louisville, Pitt, SMU, Virginia, Cal, and Ga Tech all have 2 losses or less as we have passed the halfway point in the season.
BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston- The Cougars, Bearcats, and Cougars were all expected (by most pundits) to finish in the bottom half of the Big 12, but all have at least 6 wins and are bowl eligible, Houston and UC for the 1st time since 2022. BYU is 7-0 after surviving the Holy War with Utah. UH appears to have the easier path, as they don't play either of the other 2, but in the Big 12, anything can (and often does!) happen.
Independents- Both Notre Dame and UConn are 5-2, with the Huskies getting their 1st P4 win since 2022 and only their 2nd since 2016, and the Fighting Irish running all over rival USC 34-24. The Irish just need to win the rest of their games to almost guarantee their spot in the CFP, but they need for Miami and Texas A&M to continue to win and not lose to lesser teams (looking at you, Hurricanes!).
Oregon State, Air Force, and UTEP- The Beavers got their 1st win of the season, while the Falcons and Miners got their 1st FBS wins of the season. I never want any team to go winless, so I always celebrate a 1st win (unless it's over my beloved Dawgs).
Losers
The Mountain West- The MWC lost a prime opportunity when UNLV lost by 25 points to Boise State. Now, every team in the conference has at least 1 loss, and 7 of the 12 teams have 3 losses or more. UNLV and SDSU have 1, and Boise State, Fresno State, and Hawaii have 2. That all but eliminates the conference from consideration for the CFP, as there are no real quality OOC wins, though Hawaii has a win over Stanford and SDSU has a shutout win over Cal. Unless you count New Mexico's win at UCLA, but the Lobos aren't getting into the CFP.
Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes were upset by Louisville by a score of 24-21, but the real problem is that the Canes no longer control their own destiny. They now have to hope for one or both of Georgia Tech and Virginia to lose a game (they don't play each other, so both could conceivably finish with unblemished ACC records), and/or Louisville to lose (since the Cardinals hold the tiebreaker, and UL doesn't play either GT or UVA), and then hope to win tiebreakers with any other team that finishes with 1 loss, including those mentioned.
The American Conference- With Memphis's 31-24 loss to UAB, the chances of the American getting a team into the CFP has been greatly diminished. Here's the problem- the Tigers still have to play USF, Tulane, and Navy- the 3 teams still unbeaten in conference play- all at home. In addition, USF also pays at Navy, so the odds of getting an undefeated conference champion is greatly diminished, and without an unbeaten champion, that opens the door for an MWC or SBC team to sneak in.
(Previously) Undefeated Teams- Coming into Week 8, there were 11 undefeated teams. 5 teams, almost half of them, lost, leaving just 6. Ole Miss, Miami, Texas Tech, Memphis, and UNLV all suffered their 1st defeat of the season, and all saw their CFP chances diminish, if not entirely disappear. I would be surprised if any team makes it through the regular season unscathed, but Miami and Texas Tech seemed like good bets, with the results they had had so far, and their future schedules. It just goes to show that nothing is a sure thing in college football, even though we constantly think we know what's going to happen. Speaking of which...
Clemson, FSU, and Penn State- These teams all have 4 losses on the season, with the latter 2 experiencing those in the last 4 games. In fact, the Seminoles haven't won a conference game since beating Cal in game 4 last season, as they've lost their last 9 ACC games, and 11 of their last 12 in the conference, with 6 of those being by double digits. The Nittany Lions looked like they might pull out a victory at Iowa this past weekend, but once again fell short. And the Tigers ... I have no idea what's going on there.
Texas and Kentucky- UT's 16-13 victory was one of the ugliest games I've seen in a long time. UK had numerous chances to win, but made some dumb decisions (and play calls), while the Longhorns were totally ineffective and only won because their kicker was better. The Cats have at least 1 more win on their schedule, as they play an FCS team in mid-November, but they may go winless in the SEC for the 1st time since 2013, HC Mark Stoops's 1st year in Lexington.
Florida- Even though they eked out a 23-21 win over Mississippi State, the Gators have fired HC Billy Napier heading into their bye week before the annual showdown in Jacksonville against Georgia. WR coach Billy Gonzales will serve as the interim as UF hopes to get a boost leading into the WLOCP.
LSU and Tennessee- Both the Vols and the Tigers saw their SEC and CFP chances diminish as they lost their 2nd conference game each, the Bayou Bengals 31-24 to Vandy and UT by 37-20 against Bama. This puts the Volunteers and LSU in the bottom half of the SEC, which is not where either expected to be at this stage of the season (or any stage, for that matter).
The Sun Belt Conference- Every team except 3 have at least 3 losses, making it difficult for a champion to have the strength of schedule needed to make it into the CFP. JMU is 6-1, while USM and Troy are 5-2.
The MAC- Every team in the MAC has at least 3 losses, and 7 of them (one more than half ) have 4 losses or more. Only one team was added this week to that 4-loss club, meaning 6 had 4+ losses heading into the past week.
Colorado State- The Rams fell to 2-5 after a 31-19 loss to Hawaii, and CSU has subsequently decided to fire HC Jay Norvell and replace him with former Ga Southern HC Tyson Summers as interim.
Conference Races
Here is where the teams stand midway through the season. This will be fluid throughout the season, as teams may move up or down.
SEC
Big Ten
ACC
Big 12
American
Mountain West
Sun Belt East
Sun Belt West
MAC
CUSA
That's it for this week! Come back tomorrow for my updated Power Rankings!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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