Odds and Ends 11/12/25

Welcome Back!

As expected, my Power Rankings did pretty well in predicting the committee rankings! My top 8 were all in the top 8 and of the 12-team bracket, I have 10 of the 12 I have Vandy and Utah instead of Texas and Notre Dame). Of the Committee's top 25, I have all of the top 17 in my top 25, in addition to Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, and Pitt, and among the 5 outside my top 25- Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, and Louisville- I have them ranked 26, 27, 28, 29, and 31 respectively. Not too shabby!

Wednesday, November 12

Buffalo @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas have doubled up the Bulls 8-4 in this series, but Buffalo has won 3 of the last 4, including 37-13 in their last meeting in 2023. However, CMU is 3-1 in games played in Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mt. Pleasant. Both teams are 5-4 overall, but the Bulls are tied with 3 other teams at the top of the MAC with a 4-1 conference record with the Chips just behind at 3-2. CMU is 2-0 at home vs FBS teams, but those were EMU and UMass. Buffalo is 3-1 on the road (3-0 in the MAC), but those included Kent State and UMass (BGSU was the other). Flip a coin. Bulls stampede the Chippewas.

Northern Illinois @ UMass- The Huskies have won all 3 previous contests with the Minutemen: in 2012 (63-0), 2013 (63-19), and 34-20 last year. Neither team is very good, but UMass is winless, losing by an average of 25.44 ppg , allowing 42+ points to 5 opponents, and scoring more than 10 against just 1 FBS foe. However, this is the Minutemen's best chance for a victory this season, as the Huskies are only 2-7 with just 1 FBS win. Won't happen. NIU wins.

Toledo @ Miami, Oh- The Redhawks hold a 29-24-1 series lead, but the Rockets have won 5 of the last 7 (since 2004), including 30-20 last year, but are just 1-1 in Oxford in that span. Two of the last 7 meetings were in the MAC Championship Game, with Toledo winning in 2004 and Miami in 2023, both in Detroit. Both teams are 5-4 overall. The Redhawks are tied at the top of the MAC standings at 4-1 with their loss last week at Ohio, and they are 3-1 at home with their lone loss to UNLV by 3 points. Toledo is 3-2 in the MAC, dropping decisions at WMU and BGSU, as they are 0-4 on the road (other losses by 8 to Kentucky and to Washington State by 21). Redhawks win at home.

Interconference results

Now that we are deep into conference play, there are only a few non-conference games each week. I will revisit this at the end of the season.

Intraconference results

The Sun Belt East still leads the West 6-5.

Undefeated/Winless teams

The following teams are undefeated with a 9-0 record (unless otherwise indicated):

Indiana (10-0)

Ohio State 

Texas A&M 

1 team suffered their 1st loss this past weekend, so we are down to 3 out of 136 teams (2.2%) that remain undefeated. 

Here is how many from each conference are still undefeated:

Big Ten    2 out of 18/.111

SEC     1-16/.063

Pac 12    0-2/.000

Independents 0-2/.000

CUSA    0-10/.000

MWC    0-12/.000

MAC    0-13/.000

SBC    0-14/.000

American    0-14/.000

Big 12    0-16/.000

ACC    0-17/.000

The following team has yet to win a game:

UMass 0-9

One team earned their 1st win of the season, so we are at only 1 team that remain winless (0.7%).

This is how many from each conference are still winless:

MAC    1 out of 13 teams

Pac 12    0-2

Ind     0-2

CUSA    0-10

MWC    0-12

SBC    0-14

American    0-14

SEC    0-16

Big 12    0-16

ACC     0-17

Big Ten     0-18

The following teams have a win, but no FBS wins:

Boston College

Charlotte

Georgia State

Nevada

Oklahoma State

5 teams (3.7%) do not have an FBS win, including 2 P4 teams.

This is how many teams from each conference fall into this category:

SBC-1

MWC-1

American-1

Big 12-1

ACC-1

Pac 12-0

MAC-0

CUSA-0

SEC-0

Big Ten-0

Ind- 0

Bowl eligible/eliminated

The following teams have reached 6 wins, and thus are bowl eligible. There are 35 bowl games, so 70 teams will be needed. If you add in the 12 teams for the CFP (using some of the bowls not previously counted), then 82 teams are needed. We added 8 teams this week, which means 59 teams are now eligible, so we need 23 more. 

Alabama

Arizona

Arizona State

Boise State

BYU 

California

Cincinnati

Coastal Carolina

East Carolina

Fresno State

Georgia

Georgia Tech 

Hawaii

Houston

Illinois

Indiana 

Iowa

Iowa State

Jacksonville State

James Madison

Kennesaw State

Louisville

Memphis 

Miami, Fl

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

Missouri State (if not enough teams- see next section)

Navy 

Nebraska

New Mexico

North Texas

Notre Dame

ODU

Ohio

Ohio State 

Oklahoma

Ole Miss 

Oregon

Pittsburgh

San Diego State

SMU

Southern Miss

Tennessee

TCU

Texas

Texas A&M 

Texas Tech

Troy

Tulane

UConn

UNLV 

USC

USF

Utah

Vanderbilt

Virginia

Wake Forest

Washington

WKU

As teams reach 7 losses, they become ineligible for a bowl, unless there are an insufficient amount of teams to fill all the bowl slots. In that case, teams that are 5-7 may be invited in the order of their Academic Progress Rate scores. Akron is ineligible for a bowl regardless of their record due to academics. Delaware and Missouri State may only go to a bowl if there are not enough eligible teams (they would be picked 1st if they reach 6 wins), so I will be listing all 3 of those teams here for now. We currently have 24 teams ineligible.

Akron

Arkansas

Boston College

Bowling Green

Charlotte

Colorado

Colorado State

Delaware

Eastern Michigan

Georgia State

Middle Tennessee

Missouri State

Nevada

Northern Illinois

Oklahoma State

Oregon State

Purdue

Sam Houston

South Alabama

Stanford

Syracuse

Tulsa

UMass

UTEP

Here are the remaining teams and their chances to reach a bowl game.

Team: LSU

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Ark, WKU, at Okla

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Northwestern

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Temple

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Tulane, at NT

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Miami, Oh

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Toledo, at Buff, Ball St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Central Michigan

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Buff, at Kent St, Toledo

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Mississippi State

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at Missouri, Ole Miss

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: NC State

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Miami, FSU, UNC

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Duke

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: UVA, at UNC, WF

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Baylor

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Utah, at Arizona, Houston

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Kansas

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at ISU, Utah

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Arkansas State

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: Lou, at App St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Buffalo

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule:  at CMU, Mia, Ohio

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Western Michigan

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Ohio, at NIU, at EMU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: La Tech

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Wash St, Liberty, at Mo St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Rutgers

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: at Ohio St, Penn St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Rice

Record: 5-5

Remaining Schedule: NT, at USF

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Utah State

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at UNLV, at Fresno St, Boise St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Toledo

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Mia, Ball St, at CMU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Auburn

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: Mercer, Ala

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Maryland

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, Michigan, at Mich St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Kansas State

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Okla St, at Utah, Colo

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: UCF

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at TT, Okla St, at BYU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Washington State

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: La Tech, at JMU, Oregon St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Wyoming

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Fresno St, Nev, at Haw

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Appalachian State

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at JMU, Marsh, Ark St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Marshall

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Ga St, at App St, Ga Sou

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: FSU

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: VT, at NC St, at Fla

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: UTSA

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Charlotte, ECU, Army

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Army

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Tulsa, at UTSA, Navy (Phila)

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Liberty

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at FIU, at La Tech, Kenn St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Clemson

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Louisville, Furman, at SC

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: FAU

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Tulane, UConn, ECU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Georgia Southern

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: CCU, ODU, at Marsh

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: FIU

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: Liberty, Jax St, at SHS

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Kentucky

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: Tenn Tech, at Vandy, at Louisville

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: North Carolina

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at WF, Duke, at NC St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: West Virginia

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: at Ariz St, TT

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Florida

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at Ole Miss, Tenn, FSU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Louisiana

Record: 4-6

Remaining Schedule: at Ark St, ULM

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: South Carolina

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at TAMU, CCU, Clemson

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Penn State

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at Mich St, Neb, at Rutgers

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Michigan State

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: Penn St, at Iowa, Maryland (Detroit)

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: UCLA

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at Ohio St, Wash, at USC

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Virginia Tech

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at FSU, Miami, at UVA

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: UAB

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: NT, USF, at Tulsa

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Texas State

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at USM, ULM, S Ala

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: ULM

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: S Ala, at TSU, at Lou

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Ball State

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: EMU, at Toledo, at Mia

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Kent State

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at Akron, CMU, at NIU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: New Mexico State

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, at UTEP, MTSU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: San Jose State

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at Nev, at SDSU, Fresno St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Wisconsin

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at Indiana, Illinois, at Minn

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Air Force

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at UConn, New Mex, at Colo St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Paul's Playoff Picks

Most of my picks are still in play, but more and more teams are being eliminated each week.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)

The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- still looking good at 8-1, but tough games with Texas and GT ahead

Ohio State- still undefeated

Clemson- ELIMINATED

Kansas State- ELIMINATED

Notre Dame- 7-2 with Pitt ahead

Boise State- ELIMINATED

Texas- 2 big games- UGA in Athens and TAMU at home

Alabama- now a favorite in the SEC

Oregon- in excellent shape at 8-1

Penn State- ELIMINATED

Georgia Tech- big game against Pitt and UGA, both at home

LSU- ELIMINATED

NOTE: Eliminated only means from an at-large spot. Some of these teams could still win their respective conferences. 

Here is the list of the next most likely teams to get in:

Oklahoma- a win over Alabama would keep them in the discussion

Ole Miss- seems almost a lock

Michigan- a win over OSU (again) would complicate matters

Indiana- STILL undefeated

USC- 7-2 with a difficult remaining slate

Miami, Fl- big game at Pitt the last week

Louisville- 2 losses almost eliminates them

BYU- suffered 1st loss to Texas Tech

Utah- 2 losses has them on the edge of being eliminated

Tulane- 2 losses now

Memphis- l2 losses

James Madison- lost at Louisville by only 14

I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.

Here are teams that have played themselves into contention:

Texas A&M

Vandy

Pitt

Virginia

Texas Tech

Cincinnati

Houston

USF

Navy

North Texas

San Diego State

Southern Miss

WKU

Kennesaw State

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!