Odds and Ends 11/5/25

Welcome Back!

As expected, my Power Rankings did pretty well in predicting the 1st committee rankings! My top 5 were all in the top 6 (I have UGA at #10), and of the 12-team bracket, I only missed on Notre Dame (I have them #14, and Vandy in my bracket) and Memphis (I have them 4th highest among G6 teams behind USF, UNT and JMU). Of the Committee's top 25, I have all of the top 19 in my top 25, in addition to Missouri and Washington, and among the 4 outside my top 25- Iowa, Michigan, Pitt, and Tennessee- I have them ranked 27, 28, 26, and 32 respectively. Not too shabby!

Wednesday, November 5

Kent State @ Ball State- The Cardinals have a large 24-8 lead in the series, winning the last 3, including 37-35 last year, 5 of the last 6, and the last 5 played in Muncie. Both teams are 3-5/2-2. This means BSU has matched last year's 3 wins (and 2 MAC wins) while the Golden Flashes have greatly exceeded their 0-12 record from 2024. So far, these teams have no common opponents, but KSU is 0-4/0-1 on the road and the Cardinals are 3-0/2-0 at home. Ball State wins.

Northern Illinois @ Toledo- The Rockets have doubled up on the Huskies, leading the series 35-17 after winning the last 3, and 6 of the last 9, including 13-6 last year, but NIU has won 2 of the last 3 played in the Glass Bowl. The Huskies are having a disappointing 2-6/1-3 season, especially considering they were 8-5/4-4 last year with a victory on the road at Notre Dame. Toledo is also doing worse than expected at 4-4/2-2, but they are 4-0 at home while NIU is 0-4 on the road. Rockets win.

Interconference results

Now that we are deep into conference play, there are only a few non-conference games each week. I will revisit this at the end of the season.

Intraconference results

The Sun Belt East now leads the West 6-5.

Undefeated/Winless teams

The following teams are undefeated with a 8-0 record (unless otherwise indicated):

BYU 

Indiana (9-0)

Ohio State 

Texas A&M 

2 teams suffered their 1st loss this past weekend, so we are down to 4 out of 136 teams (2.9%) that remain undefeated. 

Here is how many from each conference are still undefeated:

Big Ten    2 out of 18/.111

SEC     1-16/.063

Big 12    1-16/.063

Pac 12    0-2/.000

Independents 0-2/.000

CUSA    0-10/.000

MWC    0-12/.000

MAC    0-13/.000

SBC    0-14/.000

American    0-14/.000

ACC    0-17/.000

The following teams have yet to win a game (0-8 unless otherwise indicated):

Sam Houston 

UMass 

Neither team earned their 1st win of the season, so we are still at only 2 teams that remain winless (1.5%).

This is how many from each conference are still winless:

MAC    1 out of 13 teams

CUSA    1-10

Pac 12    0-2

Ind     0-2

MWC    0-12

SBC    0-14

American    0-14

SEC    0-16

Big 12    0-16

ACC     0-17

Big Ten     0-18

The following teams have a win, but no FBS wins:

Boston College

Charlotte

Georgia State

Nevada

Oklahoma State

5 teams (3.7%) do not have an FBS win, including 2 P4 teams.

This is how many teams from each conference fall into this category:

SBC-1

MWC-1

American-1

Big 12-1

ACC-1

Pac 12-0

MAC-0

CUSA-0

SEC-0

Big Ten-0

Ind- 0

Bowl eligible/eliminated

The following teams have reached 6 wins, and thus are bowl eligible. There are 35 bowl games, so 70 teams will be needed. If you add in the 12 teams for the CFP (using some of the bowls not previously counted), then 82 teams are needed. We added 11 teams this week, which means 51 teams are now eligible, so we need 31 more. 

Alabama

Arizona State

Boise State

BYU 

Cincinnati

Fresno State

Georgia

Georgia Tech 

Hawaii

Houston

Illinois

Indiana 

Iowa

James Madison

Kennesaw State

Louisville

Memphis 

Miami, Fl

Michigan

Minnesota

Missouri

Navy 

Nebraska

New Mexico

North Texas

Notre Dame

ODU

Ohio State 

Oklahoma

Ole Miss 

Oregon

Pittsburgh

San Diego State

SMU

Southern Miss

Tennessee

TCU

Texas

Texas A&M 

Texas Tech

Troy

Tulane

UConn

UNLV 

USC

USF

Utah

Vanderbilt

Virginia

Washington

WKU

As teams reach 7 losses, they become ineligible for a bowl, unless there are an insufficient amount of teams to fill all the bowl slots. In that case, teams that are 5-7 may be invited in the order of their Academic Progress Rate scores. Akron is ineligible for a bowl regardless of their record due to academics. Delaware and Missouri State may only go to a bowl if there are not enough eligible teams (they would be picked 1st if they reach 6 wins), so I will be listing all 3 of those teams here for now. We currently have 15 teams ineligible.

Akron

Arkansas

Boston College

Charlotte

Delaware

Eastern Michigan

Georgia State

Missouri State

Nevada

Oklahoma State

Oregon State

Purdue

Sam Houston

South Alabama

UMass

Here are the remaining teams and their chances to reach a bowl game.

Team: LSU

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Ala, Ark, WKU, at Okla

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Northwestern

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at USC, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: California

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Louisville, at Stanford, SMU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Wake Forest

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at UVA, UNC, Delaware, at Duke

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Iowa State

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at TCU, Kansas, at Okla St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Temple

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Army, Tulane, at NT

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Ohio

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Mia, at WMU, UMass, at Buff

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Miami, Oh

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Ohio, Toledo, at Buff, Ball St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Central Michigan

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Buff, at Kent St, Toledo

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Mississippi State

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: UGA, at Missouri, Ole Miss

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: NC State

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Miami, FSU, UNC

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Duke

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at UConn, UVA, at UNC, WF

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Baylor

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Utah, at Arizona, Houston

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Kansas

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: at Ariz, at ISU, Utah

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Arizona

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Kansas, at Cincy, Baylor, at Ariz St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: East Carolina

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Charlotte, Memphis, at UTSA, at FAU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Coastal Carolina

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: Ga St, at Ga Sou, at South Carolina, JMU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Arkansas State

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: USM, Lou, at App St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Buffalo

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule:  at CMU, Mia, Ohio

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Western Michigan

Record: 5-4

Remaining Schedule: Ohio, at NIU, at EMU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: La Tech

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at Del, at Wash St, Liberty, at Mo St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Jacksonville Sate

Record: 5-3

Remaining Schedule: at UTEP, Kenn St, at FIU, WKU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Auburn

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Vandy, Mercer, Ala

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Rutgers

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: Maryland, at Ohio St, Penn St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Maryland

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, at Illinois, Michigan, at Mich St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Kansas State

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Okla St, at Utah, Colo

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: UCF

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Houston, at TT, Okla St, at BYU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Washington State

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: La Tech, at JMU, Oregon St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Rice

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: UAB, NT, at USF

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Wyoming

Record: 4-5

Remaining Schedule: at Fresno St, Nev, at Haw

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Utah State

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Nev, at UNLV, at Fresno St, Boise St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Appalachian State

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Ga Sou, at JMU, Marsh, Ark St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Marshall

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: JMU, at Ga St, at App St, Ga Sou

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Toledo

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: NIU, at Mia, Ball St, at CMU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: FSU

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at Clemson, VT, at NC St, at Fla

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: UTSA

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: at USF, at Charlotte, ECU, Army

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Army

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Temple, Tulsa, at UTSA, Navy (Phila)

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Liberty

Record: 4-4

Remaining Schedule: Mo St, at FIU, at La Tech, Kenn St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Florida

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at Ky, at Ole Miss, Tenn, FSU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: South Carolina

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at TAMU, CCU, Clemson

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Penn State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Indiana, at Mich St, Neb, at Rutgers

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Michigan State

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: Penn St, at Iowa, Maryland (Detroit)

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: UCLA

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Nebraska, at Ohio St, Wash, at USC

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Clemson

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: FSU, at Louisville, Furman, at SC

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Virginia Tech

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at FSU, Miami, at UVA

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Syracuse

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at Miami, at ND, BC

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Stanford

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at UNC, Cal, Notre Dame

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Colorado

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at WVU, Ariz St, at Kan St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: UAB

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at Rice, NT, USF, at Tulsa

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: FAU

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Tulsa, at Tulane, UConn, ECU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Georgia Southern

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at App St, CCU, ODU, at Marsh

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Texas State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at Lou, at USM, ULM, S Ala

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: ULM

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: S Ala, at TSU, at Lou

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Bowling Green

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: at EMU, Akron, at UMass

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Ball State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Kent St, EMU, at Toledo, at ia

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Kent State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at Ball St, at Akron, CMU, at NIU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: New Mexico State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Kenn St, at Tennessee, at UTEP, MTSU

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: FIU

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: at MTSU, Liberty, Jax St, at SHS

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Kentucky

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Fla, Tenn Tech, at Vandy, at Louisville

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: North Carolina

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: Stanford, at WF, Duke, at NC St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: West Virginia

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: Colo, at Ariz St, TT

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: San Jose State

Record: 3-5

Remaining Schedule: AF, at Nev, at SDSU, Fresno St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Louisiana

Record: 3-6

Remaining Schedule: TSU, at Ark St, ULM

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Wisconsin

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: Wash, at Indiana, Illinois, at Minn

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Tulsa

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at FAU, Oregon St, at Army, UAB

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Air Force

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at SJSU, at UConn, New Mex, at Colo St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Colorado State

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: UNLV, at New Mex, at Boise St, AF

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Northern Illinois

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, UMass, WMU, Kent St

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: UTEP

Record: 2-6

Remaining Schedule: Jax St, at Mo St, NMSU, at Del

Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Paul's Playoff Picks

Most of my picks are still in play, but more and more teams are being eliminated each week.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)

The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- still looking good at 7-1, but lots of close wins

Ohio State- still undefeated

Clemson- ELIMINATED

Kansas State- ELIMINATED

Notre Dame- 2 losses already, but little remaining challenges

Boise State- ELIMINATED

Texas- barely hanging in there

Alabama- now a favorite in the SEC

Oregon- in excellent shape at 7-1

Penn State- ELIMINATED

Georgia Tech- just suffered 1st loss

LSU- ELIMINATED

NOTE: Eliminated only means from an at-large spot. Some of these teams could still win their respective conferences. 

Here is the list of the next most likely teams to get in:

Oklahoma- win over Tennessee keeps them around

Ole Miss- lost to UGA, but still in the race

Michigan- losses to Oklahoma and USC

Iowa- losses to Iowa State and Indiana

Indiana- still undefeated

USC- 6-2 with a difficult remaining slate

Miami, Fl- now has 2 losses

Louisville- 7-1, still a long way to go

BYU- still undefeated

Utah- 2 losses has them on the edge of being eliminated

Tulane- 2 losses now

Memphis- loss to woeful UAB hurts

James Madison- lost at Louisville by only 14

I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.

Here are teams that have played themselves into contention:

Texas A&M

Vandy

Washington

Pitt

Virginia

Texas Tech

TCU

Cincinnati

Houston

USF

Navy

North Texas

San Diego State

Southern Miss

WKU

Kennesaw State

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!