Paul's Picks Week 12
Welcome Back!
Last week was exactly the same as the week before (which wasn't very good), as I was 35-17 (67.3%), making me 520-168 overall with a winning percentage of 75.5% (down 0.8% from last week). This time, it was the ACC which messed me up, as I'm not sure I got more than 1 or 2 right for that conference.
This week we are at 59 games, 7 more than each of the last 2 weeks, but there are some big games. I'm 2-3 so far after the early games, which means I'm not off to a good start (thanks to MACtion). Let's see if I can stay above 75% for the year.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, November 13
Troy @ ODU- The Trojans and Monarchs are both 6-3 overall. ODU is 3-2 in the Sun Belt East (3rd place) and unlikely to make it to 1st place. Troy is 4-1 in the SBC West and can claim the division by winning their last 3 games. The Monarchs are 4-0 at home and the Trojans are 3-1 on the road, with their only loss at Clemson. This should be a fantastic game, but I'm going with the home team in this 1st-time matchup. ODU wins a close one.
Friday, November 14
Clemson @ Louisville- The Tigers hold a commanding 8-1 lead (since 2014), but the Cardinals won 33-21 last year in Death Valley. Clemson is having a rough year, as at 4-5, they have already lost more games than in any year since they were 9-5 in 2009, but they did pick up a victory over FSU last week, and they are 2-1 on the road. UL is 7-2/4-2, dropping a decision in OT to Cal last week, and are 4-2 at home and still have (very) slim hopes of making it into the ACC CG. Cardinals win.
Minnesota @ Oregon- The Golden Gophers have a 3-1 series lead, winning in 1960 and 1975 in Minneapolis, and in the 2003 Sun Bowl. Oregon's only win is in the 1999 Sun Bowl, meaning this is the 1st time they will play in Autzen Stadium in Eugene. The Ducks are 8-1/5-1 and 4-1 at home with a 10-point loss to Indiana. Minnesota is 6-3/4-2 and 0-3 on the road. Seems like an easy decision. Ducks win.
Saturday, November 15
Wisconsin @ Indiana - The Badgers have a huge 41-20-2 advantage in this series, winning 10 of the last 12 (since 2005), but the Hoosiers have won the last 2, including 20-14 in their last meeting in 2023 in Bloomington. Wisconsin is 3-6/1-5, earning their 1st Big Ten victory last week against Washington at home, but they are 0-3 on the road. IU is 10-0/7-0, and have played like a juggernaut for most of the season. Hoosiers win.
South Carolina @ Texas A&M- The Aggies have a 9-2 series lead, winning all 5 played in College Station, but the Gamecocks have won 2 of the last 3, including 44-20 last year. This ain't last year, as SC is only 3-6/1-6 and TAMU is 9-0/6-0. Aggies win big, moving them 1 step closer to clinching a berth in the SEC CG for the very 1st time.
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh- The Fighting Irish hold a huge 50-21-1 lead in this series, winning 7 of the last 8 played on the field (since 2010, with the 2012 victory vacated), including the last 4 (since 2015). Both teams are 7-2, so this is basically a CFP elimination game, with the loser likely relegated to a lower tier bowl, though Pitt could still get in by winning the ACC. The Panthers are 4-1 at home, losing only to Louisville back in late September. They currently have a 5-game winning streak overall. The Irish have won 7 in a row after losing their opening 2 games by a combined 4 points, and they are 2-1 on the road with a loss at Miami in the season opener. This is another high stakes game, and ND's last chance to make an impression on the CFP committee, as their last 2 games are against a pair of 3-7 teams. Irish win a close one.
Michigan @ Northwestern- With their loss last week at USC, the Wildcats now have more losses than any other team in FBS history, passing Indiana by 1. The Wolverines have a dominant 60-15-2 series edge in one of the more skewed series in CFB, as they've won each of the last 8 (since 2011, including 50-6 last year), and 16 of the last 18 (since 1997), as NU hasn't won in Evanston since 2000 (a 54-51 thriller on Nov 4). The Wildcats have surpassed last year's 4 wins (and 2 Big Ten wins) already as they sit at 5-4/3-3, but they need a win in one of their last 3 games to secure bowl eligibility. They are 4-1 at home this season, losing only to Oregon by 20. UM is 7-2/5-1, but only 2-2 on the road, with wins at Nebraska and Mich State and losses at Oklahoma and USC. The Wildcats will give them a good game, but the Wolverines will prevail.
Arizona @ Cincinnati- The Wildcats and Bearcats will be meeting on a gridiron for the very first time. Arizona is 6-3/3-3, winning their last 2, but are only 1-2 on the road. Cincy is 7-2/5-1 after suffering their 1st loss in the Big 12 at Utah, but that was 2 weeks ago as the Bearcats had last week off. They are 5-0 at home this season. UC wins in Nippert Stadium again.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys lead 43-28, winning the last 3 in Stillwater (and 8 of the last 9), but the Wildcats have won 2 of the last 3, including 42-20 last year. While KSU has had a disappointing 4-5/3-3 year so far, they are a far cry from OSU's 1-8/0-6 with no FBS wins. Wildcats maul the Cowboys.
Air Force @ UConn- This is another 1st-time matchup. The Falcons are only 3-6, but half of their losses are by exactly 3 points each, and only 1 is by more than 12 points (49-30 at Utah State). The AFA is 1-3 on the road, but is coming off a win at SJSU. The Huskies are already 7-3, with all 3 losses in OT, and they are 5-0 at home with a victory over Duke last week. This should be a competitive game, with UConn winning at home.
UTSA @ Charlotte- The Roadrunners have had an up-and-down season, with big wins and big losses leaving them at 4-5/2-3. In fact, only 3 of their 9 games have been decided by less than 18 points, as they are 1-4 on the road this season. The 49ers are 1-8/0-6 with no FBS wins, and they are 1-5 at home. UTSA leads this series 2-0, winning in 2015 and 2016. Meep! Meep! Roadrunners run away from Charlotte.
USF @ Navy- The Midshipmen lead the series 3-2, as the teams have alternated wins and losses, with Navy winning 28-7 last year. However, this will be the 4th time they will be playing in Annapolis, with Navy holding a 2-1 lead there. The Bulls are 7-2/4-1, losing only at Memphis by 3. The Naval Academy is also 7-2 overall, but 5-1 in the American Conference with their loss at North Texas. I have a bit of a conundrum on my hands, as Navy only loses on the road to teams starting with the letter N (Notre Dame is the other loss), and USF only loses on the road to teams that start with the letter M (Miami, Fl is the other loss). N is close to M, and they are on the road, but I think USF is the better team and will extend Navy's losing streak to 3 games.
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State- The Cardinals have a 37-26-2 lead in the series, but the Eagles have won the last 2, and 5 of the last 8, including 24-10 in their last meeting in 2023. EMU is 3-7/2-4, defeating BGSU last week, but they are 0-5 on the road. BSU is 4-5/3-3 and also coming off a win, and they are 4-0 at home. That's good enough for me. Cardinals win this bird fight (though there's no way a Cardinal would actually beat an Eagle in the wild).
Arkansas @ LSU- The Tigers have a large 43-23-2 lead in this series, winning the last 3 and 8 of the last 9, including 34-10 last year, but UA's last win was in Baton Rouge in 2021. Both teams are working under interim HC's, but this is only the 2nd contest for LSU interim Frank Wilson (0-1) while it's the 5th one for Arkansas interim Bobby Petrino (0-4). The Razorbacks are 2-7/0-5, with 5 of their losses by 6 points or less. The Bayou Bengals are 5-4/2-4, needing one more win to qualify for a bowl, and they've lost 3 in a row, but are 4-1 at home. LSU wins.
Oregon State @ Tulsa- The Beavers and Golden Hurricane will be clashing for the 1st time. Neither team is any good, as Tulsa is 2-7 and on a 5-game losing streak, and 1-3 at home, but they do own a victory at Oklahoma State. OSU is 2-8, winning 2 of their last 3, but are 0-3 on the road as they have no P4 wins. Tulsa wins what will probably be a low scoring game, moving their record to 2-0 against teams with the initials OSU.
West Virginia @ Arizona State- In 1979, the Sun Devils defeated the Mountaineers in Tempe, but WVU got revenge in the 2016 Cactus Bowl in Phoenix. The Mountaineers are 4-6/2-5 and must win this game (and the next one) to qualify for a bowl. ASU is 6-3/4-2 and 4-1 at home. WVU is 1-4 on the road, and ironically, their one win, 45-35 at Houston, is against the same team the Sun Devils have their lone home loss to: 24-16 to Houston. Regardless, ASU gets the win at home.
Tennessee Tech @ Kentucky- The 4-5 Wildcats hold a 5-0 advantage over the Golden Eagles, but TT won't be an easy out, as they are 10-0 this season with a 1.5 game lead over 2nd place UT-Martin in the OVC-Big South Association. UK is only 3-3 at home this season, but their losses were to Ole Miss, Texas, and Tennessee. Cats win at home.
Marshall @ Georgia State- The Thundering Herd lead this nascent series 2-1, with each team winning their home contests. The Panthers are only 1-8/0-6 this season with no FBS wins, and all but 2 of their losses have been by 13 points or more. However, their closest games have been at home against SBC East leader JMU and to South Alabama, losing by 7 to each. Marshall is 4-3/2-3, losing their last 2 by 12+ points each, and they are 1-3 on the road. GSU has an actual chance in this one, but I can't quite pull the trigger as they seem to play most teams close for a half or so before fading. Marshall wins.
North Texas @ UAB- The Blazers hold a 6-2 lead in this series that began in 1975, as the Mean Green have never won in Birmingham (0-3 there), but have the most recent win in 2023 (45-42). UNT is 8-1/4-1 and at this point, has to be considered the favorite to win the American Conference. Their only loss is by 63-36 to USF, and they hold the tiebreaker advantage over Navy, but don't play Tulane or ECU. UAB is 3-6/1-4, but their 1 win is over Memphis, as they are 3-1 at home and must win out to secure a bowl invitation. The Mean Green score 40+, maybe even 50+ (as they've done 4 times already) to win going away.
UTEP @ Missouri State- The Miners are 2-7/1-4 and only 1-3 on the road with their only FBS win at hapless SHS. The Bears are 6-3/4-1 in their 1st season at the FBS level, and though ineligible to win CUSA, they could still claim a 1st place finish and possibly a bowl game (if not enough full FBS members qualify) if they keep winning. Mo State wins this 1st-time matchup, extending their 4-game winning streak to 5 in a row.
Colorado State @ New Mexico- The Rams have almost doubled up the Lobos, winning the last 13 (since 2010) to lead the series 46-24, but 3 of UNM's last 5 victories have been at home, the latest in 2009. The Lobos are 6-3/3-2, their most wins since they were 9-4 in 2016, and they've won 3 in a row after starting conference play with 2 losses (at SJSU and at Boise State). Their last win was at UNLV, and they are 4-0 at home and coming off a bye week. CSU is 2-7/1-4, dropping 3 straight, including a 42-10 loss to UNLV at home. The Rams are 0-3 on the road. Lobos win.
Oklahoma @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide and Sooners have met 7 times, and 4 of them were in bowl games. OU has won 4, with 2 wins by the Tide and 1 tie, a 24-24 affair in the 1970 Bluebonnet Bowl in Houston. Alabama's wins came in the 1963 Orange Bowl (17-0) and the 2018 Orange Bowl (45-34). The Sooners have a 45-31 win in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, 20-13 in 2003 in Tuscaloosa, 37-27 in 2002 in Norman, and 24-3 last year, also in Norman. OU must win this game (and the next 2) to have any hope of making the CFP. Bama can absorb this loss and still have a chance, but it would greatly cripple their hopes for an SEC Championship. The Tide is 8-1/6-0 with the only loss in the season opener at FSU, as they've won 17 consecutive home games. OU is 7-2/3-2, but are 3-0 in true road games (lost to Texas in Dallas), and they were off last week. I think the Sooners have a chance in this, but they won't win. Bama in a close one.
UCF @ Texas Tech- The Red Raiders defeated the Knights 24-23 in Lubbock in their only prior meeting in 2023. UCF has already matched last year's 4 wins with 2 left to play, but they've lost their last 2 on their way to a 4-5/1-5 record, as they are 0-3 on the road. TTU is 9-1/6-1, losing only at Arizona State when their starting QB was hurt, and they've won 7 straight home games. Red Raiders win big.
Virginia @ Duke- The Cavaliers lead this series 41-34, winning 8 of the last 9 (since 2015), but the Blue Devils won the last time this was played in Durham. Last year was the 1st time this game wasn't played since 1962, breaking a string of 52 consecutive meetings. UVA is 8-2/5-1 after losing to Wake Forest last week, and it's unsure if QB Chandler Morris will be available for this contest. Duke is 5-4/4-1 and coming off a loss to UConn, with their only ACC loss to GT at home. The Wahoos are 3-1 on the road while the Blue Devils are 2-2 at home. With a week to prepare, I think UVA backup QB Daniel Kaelin will be just fine. Hoos win a close one.
Georgia Tech @ Boston College- The Yellow Jackets hold a 7-5 edge in this series, but the Eagles have won the last 3, in 2020, 2021, and 2023, the latter 2 in Atlanta. This season the Jackets are 8-1/5-1 after suffering their 1st defeat at the hands of NC State on the road, but they've had an extra week to stew on that loss, and they've won their last 8 home games (5-0 this year). BC is 1-9/0-6 with no FBS wins. GT wins big.
NC State @ Miami, Fl- This series began in 1939 with the Hurricanes holding an 11-6-1 lead (the tie was 0-0 in 1957), and winning 4 of the last 5, but the Wolfpack won 20-6 in their last meeting in 2023 in Raleigh. However, Miami has won 4 of the last 5 played in Miami (since 1982), including the 1998 Micron PC Bowl. NCSU is 5-4/2-3 and 1-3 on the road, but they are coming out of their off week. The Canes are 7-3/3-2, and 6-1 at home and 7-1 in the state of Florida. Miami wins, keeping the Wolfpack from reaching bowl eligibility this week.
Iowa @ USC- The Trojans hold a 7-3 lead in this series, winning the 1st meeting in 1925, then taking 6 in a row starting in 1962 and concluding in the 2003 Orange Bowl. The Hawkeyes have wins in 1950, 1961, and the 2019 Holiday Bowl. They've only played 3 times in Iowa City with USC winning each- 1962, 1970, and 1975. In Los Angeles, the Trojans are 3-2 against Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 6-3/4-2 and reduced to playing the spoiler after losses to Indiana and Oregon at home, but are 2-1 on the road (loss at Iowa State). USC is 7-2/5-1 with both losses on the road at Illinois and Notre Dame, making them 5-0 at home. The Men of Troy need this win to stay in the CFP and Big Ten conversations. USC wins at home.
Penn State @ Michigan State- The Nittany Lions lead 19-18-1 thanks to winning the last 2, and 4 of the last 5. The Spartans led 8-1-1 in games played from 1914 to 1966, meaning PSU has won 18 of 28 played since joining the Big Ten in 1993, but MSU has won 3 of the last 4 played in East Lansing. I'm sure both teams consider this game as a chance to grab that elusive victory. The Lions are 3-6/0-6, losing 6 in a row after starting the season 3-0, and they are 0-3 on the road. The Spartans are also 3-6/0-6, following the same trajectory, as they are 3-2 at home (0-2 in the Big Ten). One of these teams is going to get their 1st conference win with the other quite possibly ending the season winless in the Big Ten. MSU was off last week, so maybe that gives them a boost, but I still can't imagine PSU losing a 7th straight game- something that has never happened before. Lions win, but barely.
Maryland @ Illinois- The Terrapins have a 2-1 lead in this brief series, winning in 2018 and 2021, with the Fighting Illini winning 27-24 in 2023. Illinois is 6-3/3-3, and 4-1 at home, and had a bye last week. The Terps are 4-5/1-5, and 1-2 on the road (win at Wisconsin). The Illini win big.
Middle Tennessee at WKU- The Hilltoppers have moved in front in this series, leading 38-35-1 by winning the last 6, including 49-21 last year, and 9 of the last 10. The Blue Raiders haven't won in Bowling Green since 2012, losing 5 in a row in LT Smith Stadium. MTSU is 1-8/0-5, and 1-3 on the road with a win at Nevada. WKU is 7-2/5-1 and 4-1 at home, with a win over Nevada as well, and their only loss to FIU. Hilltoppers top the Blue Raiders.
San Jose State @ Nevada- The Wolf Pack have a 23-12-1 lead in the series, but the Spartans have won the last 2, including 35-31 last year. SJSU is 3-6/2-3, but 0-4 on the road, with 2 of those losses to P4 teams, as they've lost 6 consecutive road games. NU is 1-8/0-5 with no FBS wins, as they are on a 13-game FBS losing streak, and a 16-game MWC losing streak. One of these teams is going to break some streaks in this game, and I'm betting it's the coach with 119 career wins. Spartans skewer the Wolf Pack.
Appalachian State @ James Madison- The Mountaineers hold a 14-5 advantage, winning the last 2, including 34-20 last year, and winning twice in the 1st Round of the Division I-AA playoffs: in 1995 and 2007. The Dukes are 8-1/6-0, losing only on the road at Louisville, and they are on the cusp of qualifying for the CFP. Can they handle the pressure to keep winning and finish 12-1? App State is 4-5/1-4, but they've lost 3 in a row, and are only 2-3 on the road. ASU needs to win 2 of their final 3 to qualify for a bowl for only the 2nd time in the last 4 years. JMU wins.
South Alabama @ ULM- The Jaguars have a narrow 6-5 lead in this series due to winning the last 3, including 46-7 last year. The Warhawks are 3-6/1-4 and in the midst of a 5-game slide, as they are 1-4 on the road. SA is 2-7/1-4 with their only win over Ga State on they road; ULM is 1-4 at home. Both teams were off last week. This game basically decides which team will NOT be playing Texas State to stay out of last place in the SBC East, as each one plays the Bobcats the next 2 weeks. ULM wins at home.
Texas State @ Southern Miss- The Bobcats hold a slim 3-2 lead over the Golden Eagles, winning the last 2, including 58-3 last year. USM is 7-2/5-0 and the current favorite to win the SBC West Division. TSU is 3-6/0-5, and along with Ga State in the East, one of only 2 teams that are winless in the Sun Belt. Golden Eagles win.
Memphis @ East Carolina- The Pirates lead 17-8, winning the last 2, but they haven't played since 2022. These teams have played 25 times over the last 35 years (since 1990). The Tigers are 8-2/4-2 and just about out of the American Conference race, but are 4-1 on the road. ECU is 6-3/4-1 and must win to stay in the title chase. The Pirates are 4-1 at home, with their only home loss to BYU, as their road losses are at NC State (by 7) and at Tulane (also by 7). Is Memphis still motivated after losing to Tulane last week, and after constantly hearing how HC Ryan Silverfield is a candidate for all 292 HC openings? It's hard to know, but all of ECU's wins have been by at least 14 points. Pirates win.
FAU @ Tulane- Each team has one win, with the Owls winning in 2013 in Ft. Lauderdale, and the Green Wave being victorious in 2023 in Boca Raton, so this is the 1st time they will meet in New Orleans in Yulman Stadium. FAU is 4-5/3-3, and only 1-4 on the road, but they need 2 wins in their last 3 games to reach a bowl for the 1st time since 2020. Tulane is 7-2/4-1 and can clinch a tie at the top of the American Conference by winning their last 3 games, starting with this one, and are 4-0 at home. The Green Wave washes over the Owls.
Nw Mexico State @ Tennessee- You may recall that NMSU came into Auburn in 2023 and defeated the Tigers 31-10, and you might think they could do the same thing here, but UT isn't Auburn, and the Vols won't be facing former NMSU QB Diego Pavia (though they will in a couple of weeks). The Volunteers (6-3) will crush the Aggies (3-6) in this 1st ever meeting.
North Carolina @ Wake Forest- The Tar Heels have a humongous 73-36-2 lead in this series that began way back in 1888. UNC has won the last 4, including 31-24 last year, but each of WF's last 3 victories have been in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons are 6-3/3-3, winning 4 of their last 5, and they are 3-2 at home. The Heels are 4-5/2-3 and winners of 2 straight, and are 2-2 on the road, as they need 2 wins in their last 3 games to get to a 7th consecutive bowl game. Since this is a rivalry game, anything can happen. WF gets a late FG to win and avoid OT.
Liberty @ FIU- The Flames are 3-0 against the Panthers, with all games played since 2020. FIU is 4-5/2-3, and 2-2 at home, with CUSA wins on the road at WKU and MTSU. LU is 4-5/3-2, but only 1-3 away from Williams Stadium in Lynchburg. Panthers win at home.
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles lead the series 7-4, winning the last 2, including 26-6 last year. This year, the Chanticleers are 6-3/5-1 and heading toward a winner-take-all clash with JMU in the season finale. CCU is 2-2 on the road. GS is 4-5/2-3 and itching to return to a 4th straight bowl game, and they are 3-1 at home in Paulson Stadium. Expect a high scoring affair as CCU extends their 4-game winning streak.
Florida @ Ole Miss- The Rebels are almost guaranteed to make the CFP, as long as they don't lay an egg in this game or in the Egg Bowl in Starkville in the finale. The Gators lead this series 13-12-1, winning the last 3 (since 2015), including 24-17 last year in The Swamp. Interestingly, UF is 6-2 all-time in Oxford, with Ole Miss winning in 1935 and 2002. The reason they've played so little there (just 8 out of 26 meetings) is because they have also played in Jackson, MS (in 1988) and in Jacksonville, FL (4 in a row from 1944-47, and in the 1958 Gator Bowl, won 7-3 by the Rebels). The other 12 matchups have been in Gainesville. The Gators are a disappointing 3-6/2-4 and coming off a 31-point loss at Kentucky, meaning they must win their last 3 games to reach bowl eligibility, a tall task. The Rebs are 9-1/5-1 with a 10-game home winning streak (UF is 0-4 on the road this season). Ole Miss wins big.
Utah @ Baylor- The Utes have defeated the Bears each of the last 2 seasons, winning 23-12 last year. Baylor is 5-4/3-3 and needing 1 win to reach a bowl; they are 3-2 at home. Utah is 7-2/4-2 and 3-1 on the road, with their only road loss at BYU in The Holy War. This will be a very close game, probably low scoring. Utah wins.
Purdue @ Washington- I was surprised to learn that these teams have actually met 10 times before, with the Huskies holding a 7-2-1 lead in the series. Their last 2 contests were in bowl games, with Washington winning the 2001 Rose Bowl and the Boilermakers winning the 2002 Sun Bowl (though those meetings were almost exactly 2 years apart, with the Rose Bowl on Jan 1 and the Sun Bowl on Dec 31). The other meetings were from 1961 to 1990, with a 7-7 tie in 1962 in Seattle. Purdue's other win came in 1960, also in Seattle, so they are 1-3-1 there. UW is 6-3/3-3 and coming off a hugely disappointing loss at Wisconsin that knocked them out of CFP consideration. They are 4-1 at home in Husky Stadium. Purdue is 2-8/0-7 and on an 8-game skid, and 0-4 away from Ross-Ade Stadium. Huskies win.
Delaware @ Sam Houston- The Bearkats finally got their 1st win of the season last week to run their record to 1-8/0-6, so their next goal is to get a CUSA victory under their belts. The Blue Hens are 5-4/3-3, and they are 1-3 on the road. Delaware's defense has given up 31+ points in 4 games, but SHS's offense has scored more than 21 points just twice, with a high of 27 (against Jax State). Sounds like a meeting of the resistible force against the movable object. Blue Hens win.
Utah State @ UNLV- The Aggies have a big 19-8 lead in this series, but the Rebels have won the last 2, including 50-34 last year. UNLV is 7-2/3-2, and 3-1 at home, but they've lost 2 of their last 3 overall. USU is 5-4/3-2, but 0-4 on the road. UNLV wins.
UCLA @ Ohio State- This series is tied at 4-4-1, with the Bruins winning the only Rose Bowl matchup in 1976 (1975 season). The tie occurred during the 1976 season 13-13 in Columbus, as the Buckeyes are 2-1-1 in Ohio Stadium. UCLA is 3-6/3-3 and on the verge of losing bowl eligibility, as they've lost each of their last 2 games. OSU is 9-0/6-0 and almost guaranteed a spot in the CFP. Buckeyes win big.
Texas @ Georgia- The Longhorns and Bulldogs have played 7 times in 5 different locations, but this will be the 1st time they will meet in Sanford Stadium in Athens. UT won the 1st 3 contests, in the 1949 Orange Bowl, in 1957 in Atlanta, and in 1958 in Austin. The Dawgs won the next meeting in the 1984 Cotton Bowl (What time is it? I don't know, but in Dallas it's still 10-9!), followed by a Horns victory in the 2019 Sugar Bowl (Keep Uga away from Bevo!), and then UGA's 2 wins last year, in Austin and in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. Both teams need to win this game, both to insulate themselves from a possible loss in their respective finales and to improve their seeding in the CFP. The Dawgs are 8-1/6-1 and have won 5 in a row since their loss to Alabama at home, and they are 4-1 at home this season, with their last home game a month ago, on Oct 18 vs Ole Miss. UT is 7-2/4-1, winning 4 consecutive contests and are 2-2 on the road (3-2 if you count the Oklahoma win in Dallas), and they were off last week. Will that make a difference? The Dawgs have been resilient this season, never giving up whatever the odds. UGA wins, but I expect a heck of a game.
Virginia Tech @ FSU- The Seminoles have a rather substantial 24-13-1 lead in this series, winning the last meeting in 2023, but the Hokies and Noles have alternated wins in the last 7 matchups, meaning it's VT's turn. Four of their last 9 meetings (since 2000) have been outside the regular season, with the Seminoles winning the 2000 Sugar Bowl, the 2002 Gator Bowl and the 2005 ACC Championship Game, and the Hokies pulling out the 2010 ACC CG. VT is 3-6/2-3, and are 1-1 in true road games, but they are 3-3 under interim HC Philip Montgomery. FSU is 4-5/1-5 and 4-2 at home, but they've lost 5 of their last 6 overall, and still need 2 wins to reach a bowl game. While this season for the Seminoles is an improvement over last season, that's not really saying a lot, as they were 2-10/1-7 last year. Hokies pull off the mild upset, continuing the pattern of alternating wins.
Mississippi State @ Missouri- The Tigers have a slim 3-2 lead, winning in 1981 and 1984, and 39-20 last year. The Bulldogs have wins in 2015 and 2020, as they are 1-1 in Columbia. Mizzou is 6-3/2-3, losing their last 2, and 3 of their last 4, but are 5-2 at home (losing their last 2). MSU is 5-5/1-5 and needing just 1 more victory to secure their 1st bowl berth since 2022. Expect a hard fought slog of a game, but I'm going with the Bulldogs to pull the upset, as the Tigers are down to their 3rd string true freshman QB.
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State- I was flabbergasted to learn that the Owls have a 3-2 lead in this series, winning in the 2017 Division I-AA 2nd Round Playoff game, and in 2018 and 2021, but the Gamecocks have won the last 2, in 2022 and 63-24 last year. KSU is 7-2/5-0, and 1-1 at JSU Stadium, and they have won 7 in a row after 2 losses to begin the season. JSU is 6-3/5-0 and have won 4 consecutive games themselves, and are 3-0 at home. This is a battle for 1st place in CUSA, with the winner almost guaranteed a spot in the championship game, but the loser will have to fend off WKU and maybe Liberty to get a rematch. My heart is with the Owls, but I think JSU wins at home.
La Tech @ Washington State- The Bulldogs and Cougars will be meeting for the 1st time ever, and what an epic battle it will be! Just kidding. WSU is 4-5 and 3-1 at home, and they had a bye last week, though they've lost 3 of their last 4 overall. LT is 5-4 and 1-3 on the road, and they've also lost 3 of their last 4. Wazzu wins on The Palouse.
TCU @ BYU- The Horned Frogs lead this series, which began in 1987, by a margin of 7-5, as they've won the last 5 (since 2008). The Cougars are 8-1/5-1 after falling to Texas Tech last week, but are 4-0 at home in Provo in Lavell Edwards Stadium. TCU is 6-3/3-3, dropping a 3-point decision to ISU last week, but they've won 2 of their last 3, and are 2-2 on the road. I think BYU bounces back from last week's defeat and wins.
Boise State @ San Diego State- The Broncos hold a 6-4 lead in the series, winning the last 3, including 56-24 last year. The Aztecs are 7-2/4-1, a huge improvement from last year's 3-9 campaign, but they just got pummeled by Hawaii. However, they are 4-0 at home, including a shutout win over 6-4 Cal. BSU is 6-3/4-1 and 2-2 on the road, with those losses at USF and Notre Dame, and they had a bye last week. Broncos win.
Wyoming @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs have a 9-6 series lead, winning 6 of the last 8 (since 2012), but the Cowboys have the most recent win, in 2023, and also a victory in the 2009 New Mexico Bowl. Wyoming is 4-5/2-3 and 1-3 on the road, but are 2-2 in their last 4 games overall. FS is 6-3/3-2 and 3-1 at home, but have lost 2 of their last 3 overall. Both teams were off last week. Bulldogs win a close one.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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