TWIF 11/3/25
Welcome Back!
Wow! We had yet another exciting weekend, and my predicting percentage took another huge hit (more on that in my Paul's Picks on Thursday). And we had yet another coach let go.
This year, I decided to keep up with which teams I watch on TV, with a goal of seeing every team. Now, there is no way I can watch every team play a full game, so my criteria is seeing every team play at least one offensive and one defensive drive or series. So far, I have seen 127 of the 136 FBS teams, including every P4 team. I am only missing 2 teams from the Mountain West, 5 from the MAC, and 2 from CUSA. If that seems like I am prioritizing the G5 teams less, that is only partially true. My TV package does not include ESPN+ or CBS Sports Network, so I have to wait for teams to appear on Fox, CBS, NBC, ESPN, SEC, BTN, or ACC networks. I also have the MWC app (it's free!), which allows me to watch contests from the Mountain West Conference that don't appear on other networks. For this reason, I'm looking forward to the midweek games in the MAC, CUSA, and SBC this month and next so I can catch those that don't normally make the "big" networks. Oh, and I also can't stay up to watch the late night games; I'm way too old for that!
Anyway, let's get into this week's winners and losers. Just as a heads up, I've changed the way I'm presenting this week, moving more toward what I envisioned. I hope you like this new format!
Winners
Texas and Oklahoma- Both teams earned big wins- the Longhorns over Vandy 34-31 and the Sooners at Tennessee by a score of 33-27- to stay in the SEC and CFP hunt. Their chances of making it depend on some big games to come: UT at UGA and vs TAMU at home, and OU at Alabama, and then Mizzou and LSU at home.
Mississippi State- The Bulldogs broke their long 16-game losing streak, easing by Arkansas 38-35. MSU is 5-4 overall and needs just 1 more win to become bowl eligible for the 1st time since 2022, but they have a tough closing stretch- UGA, at Mizzou, and Ole Miss at home in the Egg Bowl.
Indiana- Wow! Just... wow! The Hoosiers just keep on destroying opponents. Their 55-10 victory over Maryland means they are winning games by an average of 35.67 ppg, and they have scored 55+ five times in 9 games, including each of the last 2 weeks.
USC- The Trojans defeated Nebraska 21-17 in an elimination game to stay alive in both the Big Ten and the CFP.
North Carolina- The Tar Heels defeated Syracuse 27-10, earning their 1st ACC and P4 wins of the year, and perhaps setting up a run for a bowl game. However, they must win 3 of their last 4 to get to 6 wins: Stanford, at WF, Duke, and at NC State.
Virginia- The Cavaliers escaped once again, this time by a 31-21 margin at Cal. The final score is a bit misleading, as the Wahoos scored on a pick-6 with under a minute left to achieve the 10-point victory.
Utah- The Utes have clawed themselves back into the Big 12 race by downing Cincinnati 45-14, handing the Bearcats their 1st conference loss. Utah is among 7 teams with 2 or less losses in the Big 12.
Oregon State- The Beavers eked by Washington State 10-7 to seize 1st place in the Pac 2. They can win the conference outright by winning again on Nov 29 on The Palouse, but the best the Cougars can do is tie for the conference crown.
Army- The Black Knights took down Air Force 20-17 setting up a winner-take-all contest with Navy on Dec 13.
North Texas- The Mean Green took a large step toward making the CG for the American Conference with a 31-17 win over previously unbeaten Navy. UNT and Navy are both part of a 6-way tie for 1st, along with Memphis, Tulane, USF, and ECU, but these teams don't play each other much over the next month: Tulane @ Memphis, Navy @ Memphis, USF @ Navy, Memphis @ ECU. That's 4 games pitting 5 of the 6- UNT doesn't play any of them, and Memphis is part of three fourths of them, while Navy is involved in half.
San Diego State- The Aztecs have quietly run their record to 7-1, and are the only undefeated team in the MWC at 4-0 after crushing Wyoming 24-7. Only 2 teams have scored more than 10 points against SDSU, as they have 3 shutouts.
New Mexico- The Lobos upset UNLV 40-35 to earn bowl eligibility for the 1st time since 2016. With their remaining schedule, there is a decent chance they could finish 8-4 with a chance to extend that to 9-4 with a bowl win.
James Madison- The Dukes are very close to clinching the SB East, even with 4 games to play, as they have a 2-game lead on 5 of the 6 teams they are competing with, and with only CCU a game behind, are a Chanticleer loss away from all but clinching.
Arkansas State- The Red Wolves have won 4 in a row after waxing Troy 23-10. A win over Southern Miss this week will mean ASU holds the tiebreaker advantage over both. Surprisingly, their only loss is to ULM, who has lost 5 in a row since that win.
Kennesaw State- The Owls just keep on keeping on, blasting UTEP 33-20 to move their record to 6-2/4-0 and clinch bowl eligibility in just their 2nd year at the FBs level. The win also keeps them in a tie for 1st place with Jax State, who they play in 2 weeks on the road. Hooty Hoo!
Losers
Auburn- The Tigers somehow managed to lose 10-3 to Kentucky (the Wildcats had lost 10 consecutive SEC games) and now have fired HC Hugh Freeze. This will be their 3rd large buyout in the last 6 years (since 2020). Defensive Coordinator DJ Durkin, former HC at Maryland, will take over as interim.
Bobby Petrino- The interim HC at Arkansas is 0-4 after losing 38-35 to Mississippi State, so I imagine his chances of getting the full time job are diminishing by the week. Three of the 4 losses have been by exactly 3 points, with the 4th by 9 to Auburn, who just fired their HC.
Penn State- The Nittany Lions were blown out 38-14 by Ohio State to run their losing streak to 5 games and their Big Ten record to 0-5. With Indiana in Happy Valley on tap, I expect that streak to reach 6 games. They are guaranteed their 1st losing conference record since 2021.
Nebraska- Not only did the Cornhuskers lose to USC by a score of 21-17, but they also lost starting QB Dylan Raiola for the rest of the season with a broken fibula.
Clemson- The Tigers just keep sinking lower and lower, and nothing seems to go their way lately (that was a terrible defensive PI call when the receiver tackled the DB). At 3-5 overall, and 2-4 in the ACC, CU is guaranteed their worst finish since they were 6-7/4-4 in 2010, HC Swinney's 2nd season there.
Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes are once again falling apart at the end of the season, though they started a little earlier this year. After their 26-20 loss to SMU in OT, they've now lost 2 of their last 3 and are likely to miss the ACC CG yet again.
Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets fell 48-36 to NC State, spoiling their perfect season and ending their 8-game winning streak. The Jackets may still make the ACC CG and/or the CFP, but they no longer control their own destiny.
Iowa State- The Cyclones were expected to challenge for a Big 12 Championship, and perhaps make the CG for a 2nd straight year, but they have fallen apart, losing their last 4 games, 3 of them by 8 points or less. They need 1 more win to reach their 3rd consecutive bowl.
Houston- The Cougars were upset 45-35 by a West Virginia team that came into the game at 2-6/0-5. The loss drops UH to their 2nd Big 12 loss, and likely out of the race as they only face one other team near the top: TCU.
Colorado- The Buffaloes were routed for the 2nd week in a row, losing those games by a combined 105-24, giving up at least 52 points in each game. At 3-6/1-5, the Buffs may not surpass, or even match, the 4-8 record from HC Sanders' 1st season in Boulder.
Tulane- The Green Wave were routed by UTSA, falling 44-27 to the Roadrunners. The loss drops Tulane into a 6-way tie for 1st place, meaning they no longer control their own fate. However, a win over Memphis on Friday would be a big step toward making the American Conference Championship Game, and perhaps the CFP as well.
Boise State- The Broncos were stomped by Fresno State 30-7, with much of the damage coming after QB Maddus Madsen went out with an injury. After a bye week, they have a huge game at SDSU for the conference lead.
Sam Houston- The Bearkats have lost every game except 1 by at least 17 points (29-27 to Jax State). But as bad as they are, they have a few more chances to grab that elusive win: at Oregon St, Delaware, at MTSU, and FIU.
Conference Races
Here is where the teams stand and what they need to do to make their conference championship game. Please note that since we still have a month to play, I am not presenting every scenario- just the most likely path, and since every conference has its own tie breakers (TB), I am also not considering those yet. I'll refine these each week until the end of the season. Please note that "bottom feeders" doesn't mean eliminated; it just means the odds are long.
SEC
Big Ten
ACC
Big 12
American
Mountain West
Sun Belt East
Sun Belt West
MAC
CUSA
That's it for this week! Come back tomorrow for my updated Power Rankings!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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