TWIF Notes 11/10/25
Welcome Back!
Wow! We had yet another exciting weekend, and my predicting percentage took another huge hit (more on that in my Paul's Picks on Thursday). But no coaches have been fired (yet!), so that's a big plus.
This year, I decided to keep up with which teams I watch on TV, with a goal of seeing every team. Now, there is no way I can watch every team play a full game, so my criteria is seeing every team play at least one offensive and one defensive drive or series. So far, I have seen 131 of the 136 FBS teams, including every P4 team. I am only missing 1 team from the Mountain West (San Diego State), 3 from the MAC (E Mich, Akron, and UMass), and 2 from CUSA (WKU & SHS). If that seems like I am prioritizing the G6 teams less, that is only partially true. My TV package does not include ESPN+ or CBS Sports Network, so I have to wait for teams to appear on Fox, CBS, NBC, ESPN, SEC, BTN, or ACC networks. I also have the MWC app (it's free!), which allows me to watch contests from the Mountain West Conference that don't appear on other networks (sometimes). I've only got a few left to catch, so let's hope I can get there. Oh, and I also can't stay up to watch the late night games; I'm way too old for that!
Anyway, let's get into this week's winners and losers!
Winners
Alabama- The Crimson Tide just keep rolling along and have now won 8 straight after downing LSU 20-9. The only thing standing between them and the SEC Championship Game are contests vs Oklahoma and at Auburn, and even then, a loss may not keep them out.
Texas A&M- The Aggies dominated Mizzou 38-17, and they seem to be on a collision course with Bama in the SEC CG. However, they still need to get by South Carolina at home and Texas in Austin. Unfortunately, they aren't as insulated from a loss as the Tide is, as they don't hold victories over UGA (like Bama) or Ole Miss.
Vanderbilt- The Commodores played their 4th close game in a row, coming out on top 45-38 in OT against Auburn at home. Three of their last 4 games have been decided by exactly 7 points (all wins) with their only loss by 3 at Texas, as Vandy is 6-0 at home. Wins over Kentucky and at Tennessee could vault the 'Dores into the CFP, depending on other results.
Oregon- The Ducks needed some late-game heroics to get past pesky Iowa 18-16, but the likelihood of them making the Big Ten CG depends on an OSU loss- and winning out themselves, of course.
USC- The Trojans stayed in the CFP discussion with a 38-17 victory over Northwestern, but they have a tough row to hoe ahead: Iowa, at Oregon, and rival UCLA.
Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights pounced on Maryland, winning 35-20, and they've now won 2 of their last 3 to move within 1 win of bowl eligibility for a 3rd straight year, which would be the 1st time that has happened since they went to 4 in a row from 2011-2014.
Iowa State- The Cyclones knocked off TCU 20-17 to end their 4-game skid and squelching any hopes the Horned Frogs had of winning the Big 12.
Texas Tech- The Red Raiders flattened previously unbeaten BYU 29-7 to move into a tie for 1st place with the Cougars and Cincinnati. The Big 12 CG could be a rematch of this game.
James Madison- With the American and Mountain West conferences cannibalizing themselves, that leaves the door open for a team like the Dukes to walk through. After their 35-23 victory over Marshall, JMU is now 8-1/6-0. It seems that wins over App State, Washington State, CCU and USM (or Troy or Arkansas State) in the SBC CG could vault them into the CFP field.
Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State- Both the Owls and the Gamecocks won last week to remain at 5-0 in CUSA. The teams play this week, meaning the winner should be in good shape to make the CUSA CG while the loser will need to fend off WKU and Mo State. Jax State finishes the season with the Hilltoppers at home, while KSU hosts the Bears on the penultimate weekend.
Losers
Florida- Really... how do you lose 38-7 to Kentucky? A team that had scored more than 24 points only once, and that was in a 56-34 loss to Tennessee. A team that UF has dominated for much of its existence. The Wildcats have now won consecutive games for the 1st time since games 4 and 5 of last season.
Penn State- My gosh have the Nittany Lions just fallen apart. PSU dropped a 27-24 decision to Indiana thanks to one of the most incredible catches (and body control) that you will ever see. But it still means 6 straight losses, tying their longest losing streak ever.
Iowa- The 18-16 loss to Oregon drops the Hawkeyes from the CFP at-large candidacy.
Washington- How the heck do you lose to Wisconsin? I know the weather was cold and rainy, but shouldn't this team be used to that? This loss ends all hope of the CFP for UW while giving the Badgers their 1st conference win this year, and breaks a 10-game Big Ten losing streak.
ACC- The ACC saw many of their top teams lose, creating chaos within the conference standings, and reducing their chances of getting more than 1 team into the CFP. Virginia lost 16-9 to 6-3/3-3 Wake Forest, dropping them into a 1st place tie with 3 other teams at 8-2/5-1, and they lost their starting QB as well. Louisville dropped a 29-26 decision in OT to 6-4/3-3 Cal to slide all the way into 6th place with a 7-2/4-2 record. Duke fell 37-34 to UConn, making the Blue Devils 5-4/4-1, meaning they finish 1-3 in OOC games. GT, SMU and Pitt are the other 1-loss teams, and the Panthers will have a lot to say about who makes the Championship Game, and about the perception of the ACC as a whole, as they take on Notre Dame, travel to GT, and host Miami in the finale for their final 3 games.
Colorado- The Buffaloes have now lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 after falling 29-22 at West Virginia.
Oregon State- The Beavers lost 21-17 to previously winless Sam Houston, coughing up a 17-0 lead. OSU can "salvage" their season by defeating Washington State for a 2nd time in the season finale, which would clinch the Pac 12 "title".
The American Conference- Memphis spit-the-bit by losing 38-32 to Tulane. The Tigers had been the highest ranked G6 team in the CFP rankings, but are now likely eliminated. Navy got stomped 49-10 by Notre Dame, hurting the conference's national perception. And now, every team has at least 2 overall losses, except for UNT, which is 8-1/4-1, but with a 63-36 loss to USF.
The Mountain West Conference- San Diego State was the last hope for the MWC to make it into the CFP, but the Aztecs were crushed 38-6 by Hawaii. All but 2 teams now have 3 overall losses, with only SDSU and UNLV at 7-2.
UMass- The Minutemen are now the only FBS team without a win as they lost 44-10 to Akron. They'll get 3 more chances this season- NIU, at Ohio, and BGSU. NIU seems like the best chance, as the Huskies are only 2-7/1-4, but they do have a win over Ball State.
Conference Races
Here is where the teams stand and what they need to do to make their conference championship game. Please note that since we still have a month to play, I am not presenting every scenario- just the most likely path, and since every conference has its own tie breakers (TB), I am also not considering those yet. I'll refine these each week until the end of the season. Please note that "bottom feeders" doesn't mean eliminated; it just means the odds are long.
SEC
Big Ten
ACC
Big 12
American
Mountain West
Sun Belt East
Sun Belt West
MAC
CUSA
That's it for this week! Come back tomorrow for my updated Power Rankings!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
Comments
Post a Comment