TWIF Notes 11/17/25

Welcome Back!

Wow! We had yet another exciting weekend, with a few upsets and a lot of near upsets. But no coaches have been fired (yet!), so that's a big plus.

This year, I decided to keep up with which teams I watch on TV, with a goal of seeing every team. Now, there is no way I can watch every team play a full game, so my criteria is seeing every team play at least one offensive and one defensive drive or series. So far, I have seen 132 of the 136 FBS teams, including every P4 team. I am only missing 1 team from the Mountain West (San Diego State), 1 from the MAC (E Mich), and 2 from CUSA (WKU & SHS). If that seems like I am prioritizing the G6 teams less, that is only partially true. My TV package does not include ESPN+ or CBS Sports Network, so I have to wait for teams to appear on Fox, CBS, NBC, ESPN, SEC, BTN, or ACC networks. I also have the MWC app (it's free!), which allows me to watch contests from the Mountain West Conference that don't appear on other networks (sometimes). I've only got a few left to catch, so let's hope I can get there. Oh, and I also can't stay up to watch the late night games; I'm way too old for that!

Anyway, let's get into this week's winners and losers!

Winners

Georgia- The Dawgs throttled Texas 35-10, outscoring the Longhorns 21-0 in the 4th quarter. UGA is poised to make the CFP regardless of if they make the SEC CG, or even if they lose to rival Ga Tech. Just about the only thing that would definitely keep them out is losing to 1-9 Charlotte this weekend. And if Texas defeats Texas A&M next week (or if Auburn beats Alabama), the Bulldogs could even make it into the SEC Championship Game for a 5th straight season.

Oklahoma- The Sooners may have just punched their ticket to the CFP with their 23-21 upset of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, but they still have to get past old Big 8/12 foe Missouri and LSU. Fortunately, both are in Norman.

Texas A&M- The Aggies looked completely inept in the 1st half against South Carolina, trailing 30-3 at the half, and everyone had dug their grave, but TAMU scored 28 unanswered points in the 2nd half to eke out a 31-30 victory over the Gamecocks. Even with the win, the Aggies aren't assured of a spot in the SEC CG, as a loss to Texas could let Georgia in the back door.

Ole Miss- The Rebels are another team that has almost secured a spot in the CFP, as they are a win over Mississippi State from an 11-1 regular season, which would almost certainly get them in. The problem is that the game is in Starkville, and sometimes Ole Miss players do dumb things that cause them to lose this game.

Penn State- The Nittany Lions ended their long 6-game losing streak with a 28-10 victory over Michigan State, ensuring they will not go winless in the Big Ten. And now they are 2 wins from getting back to a bowl!

Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana- The Buckeyes, Ducks and Hoosiers all won easily to keep their CFP dreams alive. OSU and IU seem destined to meet in the Big Ten CG as undefeated teams, but Purdue and Rutgers may have something to say about that. Just kidding! It's Michigan. It's always Michigan for the Buckeyes.

Michigan and USC- The Wolverines and Trojans hung onto their CFP hopes by slipping by Northwestern and Iowa, respectively. Michigan could still make the Big Ten CG if things fall their way, and USC plays at Oregon this weekend in an elimination game.

Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes plastered NC State 41-7 to stay in the CFP conversation, but they are still on the outside looking in regarding the ACC CG.

Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets won again (barely), defeating Boston College 36-34 on a last-second FG, but the defense has given up 34+ points in each of the last 2 games after holding 7 of 8 to 24 or less (and the 29 they allowed to WF was in OT). They will need to get that fixed before taking on Pitt and UGA in their last 2 games.

Utah- The Utes crushed Baylor in Waco by a score of 55-28 as they've beaten every team they've faced except the Big 12 leaders: Texas Tech and BYU. They are in prime position to get an at-large CFP berth, but could get squeezed out by upsets on Championship Game weekend.

Texas Tech and BYU- The Red Raiders and Cougars have almost punched their ticket to a Big 12 CG that would be a rematch.  TTU had a 48-9 wipeout of UCF as they now get an off week before closing the regular season at West Virginia. BYU plays at Cincinnati in an elimination game before closing the season against UCF in Provo.

Notre Dame- The Fighting Irish passed their last real hurdle, downing Pitt 37-15. With only Syracuse (3-7 and on a 6-game losing streak since losing star QB Steve Angeli) and Stanford (also 3-7, but with a modest 3-game losing skid) remaining, they should coast to a CFP slot.

UConn- The Huskies are 8-3 after outlasting Air Force 26-16, and they are a win at FAU this weekend and a bowl win from claiming their 1st double-digit win season since joining the FBS ranks in 2000. Their only other 10-win season was in 1998, when they finished 10-3, losing in the Division I-AA quarterfinals to Georgia Southern.

James Madison- The Dukes demolished Appalachian State 58-10 while watching the American and Mountain West conferences cannibalize themselves. If those conferences can't get their conference champion to the finish line with at least 10 wins, that would open the door for a 12-1 JMU, assuming they can win their last 2 and the SBC CG.

Jacksonville State- The Gamecocks won a battle of unbeaten CUSA teams by easing past Kennesaw State 35-26, scoring the 2nd most points the Owls have allowed (behind Indiana). JSU is all alone in 1st place, and could return to the CUSA CG to claim a 2nd consecutive title.

Losers

Texas- The Longhorns now have 3 losses, but according to many pundits, they have not been eliminated from the CFP due to their wins over Oklahoma and Vandy, and their close loss to #1 Ohio State, but that loss to Florida looks worse and worse each week.

Alabama- The Crimson Tide suffered their 2nd loss of the season, dropping a 23-21 decision to Oklahoma, which means they absolutely have to beat Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium in 2 weeks. A loss on the Plains would not only knock the Tide from the SEC CG, but also eliminate any hope of making the CFP as an at-large team.

South Carolina- I mean, how can you look that good in the 1st half and then completely fall apart in the 2nd?

Wisconsin- The Badgers need to win at least one more game to avoid their fewest wins since 2020, when they were 4-3 in a shortened season.

Northwestern- The Wildcats have lost 3 in a row after starting the season 5-2, and now are in danger of missing a bowl for the 2nd straight season. Their remaining games are against Minnesota and at Illinois.

Louisville- The Cardinals had everything going their way before losing their last 2 games by a combined 4 points (one was in OT). 

Cincinnati- The Bearcats dropped a 30-24 decision to Arizona that takes some of the shine off of their matchup with BYU this weekend, but a win at home against the Cougars could get them right back in the mix.

The American Conference- Memphis and USF, the 2 teams expected to have the best chance to make the CFP, both lost last week, the Tigers at ECU and the Bulls at Navy. This opens the door for the Midshipmen, Tulane, or UNT to seize the mantle, but only the Mean Green has just 1 loss overall.

Boise State- The Broncos have 4 losses already and have little chance of making the MWC title game for a 4th consecutive season.

The Sun Belt- Southern Miss was demolished by Texas State, falling 41-14. This doesn't drop the Golden Eagles out of 1st place in the west, but it does open the door for both Troy and Arkansas State. The loss also ends the chance of a 10-2 USM facing an 11-1 JMU in the SBC CG with a spot in the CFP on the line. By losing this game (and either of the next 2), it keeps JMU from registering a win over a quality opponent.

Conference Races

Here is where the teams stand and what they need to do to make their conference championship game. Please note that since we still have a month to play, I am not presenting every scenario- just the most likely path, and since every conference has its own tie breakers (TB), I am also not considering those yet. I'll refine these each week until the end of the season. Please note that "bottom feeders" doesn't mean eliminated; it just means the odds are long.

SEC

Contenders

Texas A&M is in if it wins at Texas in 2 weeks. If the Aggies lose, then the decision will be made by tiebreakers, and depending on who ends up tied, TAMU could get boxed out. The other teams still in play are Georgia (already completed their conference schedule), Ole Miss (must win at Miss State), and Alabama (must win at Auburn. Nothing will be settled this week, as all 3 of these contests take place Thanksgiving weekend, with a loss by the Crimson Tide or the Rebels eliminating them. Interestingly, all 3 of these are on the road.

Eliminated

Texas

Vandy

Missouri 

Oklahoma

Tennessee

LSU

Florida

South Carolina

Arkansas

Mississippi State

Auburn

Kentucky

Big Ten

Contenders

This seems headed for a battle between undefeated Indiana and undefeated Ohio State. Th Hoosiers are in if they win at Purdue in 2 weeks, but can also get in with a loss, as long as USC and Michigan also lose at least 1 game. Ohio State is in with wins over Rutgers and at Michigan, but if the Wolverines upset the Buckeyes, then OSU could be out, as they may end up tied with at least 1 or 2 other teams. Michigan could get in with wins at Maryland and over Ohio State. Oregon hosts USC this weekend, so either the Ducks or the Trojans will be eliminated with their 2nd loss. Well, technically, no one is eliminated with 2 losses, but it would take a whole lot of upsets to get a 2-loss team into the Big Ten CG. 

Eliminated

Iowa

UCLA

Minnesota

Northwestern

Nebraska

Washington

Maryland

Illinois

Michigan State

Penn State

Rutgers

Purdue

Wisconsin

ACC

Contenders

There are 6 teams still in contention. Georgia Tech needs to defeat Pitt this weekend at home to guarantee at least a tie for 1st place. Virginia needs to win over Miami and at rival Va Tech for the same outcome. Pitt simply needs to win at Ga Tech and over Miami at home to tie for 1st. SMU has Louisville at home and Cal on the road. Miami and Duke need to win both of their remaining games and hope 3 of the other 4 lose at least 1 more game, and even then that may not be enough.

Eliminated

Louisville

Cal

North Carolina

Va Tech

Stanford

NC State

Syracuse

Wake Forest

Clemson

FSU

Boston College

Big 12

Contenders

Texas Tech and BYU are in the driver's seat, as they control their own destinies- the Red Raiders just need t win at West Virginia to get in the Big 12 CG, while the Cougars need 2 wins: at Cincinnati and vs UCF at home. If that happens, then there will be a rematch of their Nov 8 game. Cincinnati could create some intrigue by upsetting BYU this weekend, but that won't necessarily vault the Bearcats into the CG, as there are 3 other teams with 2 losses each that could factor in. Utah has games vs Kansas State and at Kansas, Arizona State plays at Colorado then hosts rival Arizona, and Houston hosts TCU then travels to Waco to take on Baylor. If all 3 of these teams win out, and Cincy upsets BYU, then we have a 5-way tie for 2nd place. Even worse, if TTU loses their final game, we could have a 6-way tie for 1st!

Eliminated

TCU 

Baylor

Arizona

Kansas

Iowa State

Kansas State

UCF

Oklahoma State

Colorado

West Virginia

American

Contenders

Navy is currently on top, but that is only because they have played an extra conference game. Including the Midshipmen, there are 4 teams with just 1 loss, and USF is just behind with 2 losses. Unfortunately, none of these teams play each other over the last 2 weeks. Navy will clinch a tie with a win at Memphis this weekend, but holds no head-to-head tiebreakers over any of the other teams except 2-loss USF, which would only come into play if they lose this game. North Texas plays at Rice and hosts Temple, but holds the h2h tiebreaker over Navy, and only USF has that advantage over the Mean Green. East Carolina may have the toughest path, as they play their last 2 games on the road, at UTSA and FAU. The Pirates hold no h2h edges over any of the contending teams.  Tulane plays at Temple (so the Owls could have a lot to say about who wins the American Conference and who doesn't) and then hosts Charlotte. The Green Wave hold the h2h over ECU. Finally, USF is the long shot, but has the easiest remaining games to play: at UAB and Rice (these Owls also play 2 of the contenders). The Bulls hold the h2h over UNT.

Eliminated

Memphis

Temple

UTSA

FAU

Rice

Army

UAB

Charlotte

Tulsa

Mountain West

Contenders

San Diego State has the most obvious path; they just need to defeat San Jose State and win at New Mexico. Winning one guarantees at least a tie for 1st place, but a loss to UNM could knock the Aztecs out altogether, as the Lobos would have the h2h tiebreaker advantage. SDSU does hold the h2h edge over Boise State and Fresno State. New Mexico plays at Air Force then hosts SDSU; winning both would guarantee them a tie for 1st and the h2h advantage over UNLV and SDSU. Fresno State has Utah State at home and SJSU on the road, and they hold h2h edges over Hawaii and Boise State. Hawaii plays at UNLV (the loser will be eliminated) and hosts Wyoming, so wins would give them the h2h over SDSU and UNLV. Boise State hosts Colorado State and travels to Utah State, and they hold the h2h edge over UNM and UNLV. UNLV plays Hawaii and at Nevada, and wins would give them the h2h over only Hawaii. This should clear up a bit after this weekend. Or it could get more complicated. It's College Football, Baby! We can't ever do things the easy way!

Eliminated

Utah State

San Jose State

Colorado State

Wyoming

Nevada

Air Force

Sun Belt East

Contenders

James Madison has clinched the division.

Eliminated

CCU

Marshall 

App State

ODU

Ga Southern

Ga State

Sun Belt West

Contenders

Southern Miss needs to defeat Troy to clinch the division, or win at South Alabama and a Troy loss to Georgia State. Troy can clinch with wins over GSU and at USM and an Arkansas State loss to either Louisiana or at App State. ASU can clinch with 2 wins and a Troy win over USM.

Eliminated

ULM

Louisiana

Texas State

South Alabama

MAC

Contenders

Almost half of the conference is still alive for a MAC Championship Game appearance. WMU has the clearest path, as they just need to win their last 2 games at NIU and at EMU. However, since they have a 1-game lead, they would still not be eliminated with a loss in either game, especially if Miami also suffers a loss. The other 5 teams need to win out and let the chips fall where they may. CMU goes to KSU and hosts Toledo; if they win, the Chippewas would hold the h2h over Buffalo and Toledo. Ohio plays UMass and at Buffalo; if they win, the Bobcats would hold h2h over Miami and Buffalo. Toledo hosts Ball State and travels to CMU; wins would give them h2h over Miami and CMU. Buffalo has the toughest path, hosting Miami and Ohio, but wins would give them h2h over both of those teams. Finally, Miami travels to Buffalo before hosting Ball State; wins would give them h2h over WMU and Buffalo.

Eliminated

Ball State

Kent State

Bowling Green

Akron

NIU

UMass

E Mich

CUSA

Contenders

Jax State clinches a spot with a win over WKU, or a win at FIU and a KSU loss to either Missouri State or at Liberty. WKU clinches at least a tie for 1st with a win over JSU. KSU needs 2 wins and a loss by WKU to force a 3-way tie atop the conference; 2 wins for the Owls and 2 losses for the Gamecocks also will secure a chance to play in the CUSA CG. Missouri State could tie for 1st place, but cannot win a championship as a transitional member of CUSA and the FBS.

Eliminated

Missouri State

Liberty

FIU

La Tech

New Mexico State

Delaware

MTSU

UTEP

Sam Houston

That's it for this week! Come back tomorrow for my updated Power Rankings!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!