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TWIF Notes 9/27/21

Welcome Back! What another exciting weekend!  Unfortunately, I got to watch very little of it, as I was on the road most of the day, though I did get to see a little of the Georgia-Vandy game, some of the Arkansas-Texas A&M game, and bits and pieces of the Florida-Tennessee and Oklahoma-WVU games. I did get to listen to the College Football Blitz on SiriusXM for a few hours while I drove, so I heard a lot of highlights. The MAC seemed to have a good day, there were lots of surprising results, the 2-point conversion- or missed conversion, as the case may be- also figured prominently, and we had 4 games that went into OT, all of which makes college football the greatest game on Earth! Anyway, on to the recaps! Teams Who Defeated FCS Opponents, Just as They Should Have Penn State defeated Villanova 38-17 Pittsburgh defeated New Hampshire 77-7 Virginia Tech defeated Richmond 21-10 Temple defeated Wagner 41-7 Miami, Fl defeated Central Connecticut 69-0 Northern Illinois defeated Mai...

Paul's Picks Week 4

Welcome Back! After finishing over 90% a week ago, I had a little bit of humble pie this past week, going 56-17 for a .767 winning percentage. Overall, I am 200-44, right at 82%. Last year, I finished at 71.8%, which was  WAY  below my usual average (I'm usually around 75%).  You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread.  I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on  YOU! ). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for right around 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it.  My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that.  Most years, I'm right around 75%, but I think my high has been close to 78%, with last year perhaps being my worst in many years (very few F...

Odds and Ends 9/22/21

Welcome Back! There was lots of action this past week, so there is lots of data to sift through.  As we get further into the season, there will be more to talk about. I hope you enjoy reading through all the info below! Which Conference is Best? While there have been a few conference games played, most teams played non-conference games, so we have something to compare, and it's quite interesting. Here is how they stand after week two. 1. SEC 30-6 .833 2. Big 12 23-5 .821 3. Big Ten 23-7 .767 4. MWC 17-19 .472 5. ACC 22-12 .611 6. Sun Belt 17-12 .586 7. Independents 12-9 .571 8. AAC 17-15 .531 9. Pac 12 16-15 .516 10. CUSA 16-6 .727 11. MAC 13-22 .371 12. FCS 10-85 .105 The CUSA drops from 4th all the way to 10th.  The MWC now is the highest rated G5 conference. Now the above includes the record against all competition.  What if we narrow it down to just FBS competition?  Does that change the standings?  Let's see... 1. SEC 22-5 .815 2. Big 12 17-7 .708 3. Big Te...

Power Rankings 9/21/21

Welcome Back! We had quite a bit of movement this week, but a lot of it was teams just swapping spots. There is still less movement than expected, I think because so much is still weighted toward my preseason rankings.  Again, I use a points based system, and my preseason points ranged from a low of 69.3 points to a high of 1123.54 points, so you can see that there is a lot of room to fit 130 teams in.  As I have pointed out previously, when we get into October, I will begin to drop off my preseason factors one by one over a period of several weeks, and so we will get a truer read on how teams are doing this season, and not have so much weight on preseason expectations.  USC dropped 10 spots, even though they won convincingly, because with the firing of Clay Helton, I dropped their coach bonus. New coaches don't have a record, and therefore don't get a bonus, and despite his struggles, Helton had a pretty decent record. You may also wonder why a team like Nevada would onl...