Paul's Picks Week 4
Welcome Back!
After finishing over 90% a week ago, I had a little bit of humble pie this past week, going 56-17 for a .767 winning percentage. Overall, I am 200-44, right at 82%.
Last year, I finished at 71.8%, which was WAY below my usual average (I'm usually around 75%). You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread. I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on YOU!). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for right around 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it.
My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that. Most years, I'm right around 75%, but I think my high has been close to 78%, with last year perhaps being my worst in many years (very few FBS vs FCS games to pad my stats).
I will give you my pick for every game that will take place for the coming weekend. Most weeks, the early games will start on Thursdays; on weeks where there are earlier games, on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll give those picks the day of the game. Like my TWIF Notes, there won't be a lot of in-depth analysis, but I hope you will find my unique takes interesting and entertaining.
It's always difficult to predict the early season games, as there is only preseason speculation, and not a lot of body of work to go on, but I'll give it my best shot.
Now... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 23
Marshall @ Appalachian State- Both teams come in at 2-1, and both have close losses, but the Mountaineers lost by 2 to Miami, Fl while the Thundering Herd lost by 4 to East Carolina, a team ASU beat in their opener. The Herd trails in the series 14-9, but has won the last 3, including 17-7 last year in Huntington. However, last year was the 1st time they had played since 2002, and that matchup was the 1st time since they ended their series in 1996, after playing every year from 1977-96 (twice in '87). App State gets revenge at home. ASU wins.
Friday September 24
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte- This is the 6th meeting between these 2 teams, but the 4th time in Charlotte. The Blue Raiders won the 1st 4 matchups, with the 49ers winning last year, 34-20. Charlotte has a win over an FBS opponent, and is at home. 49ers win.
Wake Forest @ Virginia- The Demon Deacons come in undefeated, but their 2 FBS wins are over teams with a combined 1-5 record, with the lone win over an FCS team. The Cavaliers lost last week to UNC, but have otherwise played well, and were in that game before getting blitzed in the 2nd half. The Cavs lead the series 34-16, which includes a long 17-game winning streak from 1984-2000, but the Deacs have won the last 4, each played 4 years apart, including 40-23 last year. The Wahoos break that streak and win at home.
Liberty @ Syracuse- These 2 teams have split their 2 meetings, with the Orange winning by 24 in 2019 and the Flames winning 38-21 last year. Syracuse may be improved this year, but it's hard to tell by the results so far. Likewise, Liberty is undefeated, but they haven't really been challenged. Liberty wins a close one on the road.
UNLV @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs have played very well this year so far, while the Rebels are on a 9-game losing streak. FSU leads the series 9-6, and has won the last 3. Fresno State wins.
Saturday, September 25
Georgia @ Vanderbilt- The Dawgs have looked very impressive so far, which is more than can be said for the Commodores. While the series is a lopsided 58-20-2 in Georgia's favor, the Bulldogs have often struggled in Nashville, losing in 2013, and winning close games many times throughout the years, so it's never the slam dunk people always expect it to be, if you'll excuse the mixing of sports metaphors. The 'Dores offense has not scored more than 24 points over the last 6 games, and has broken that mark once in the last 13. The Bulldogs have given up more than 24 only twice over the last 14 games. Seems like a bad combination for Vandy. Georgia wins easily.
Villanova @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions will crush the 3-0 Wildcats.
Notre Dame @ Wisconsin (Chicago)- I'm not real sure what to make of these 2 teams. This will be their 17th meeting with the Fighting Irish leading 8-6-2 and winning the most recent matchup, but that was in 1964. The Badgers had a week off to prepare, and I guess we'll find out if they've fixed their issues. Irish win a close one.
LSU @ Mississippi State- It's highly likely that if the refs (and the replay booth) don't botch the punt return by Memphis, then the Bulldogs would still be undefeated, but we'll never know for sure. The Tigers have 2 wins since their opening loss to UCLA, but they were over an FCS team and a MAC team. While the Bayou Bengals lead the series 75-36-3, and have won 25 of the last 29, MSU has won 2 of the last 4, including last year's 44-34 upset. I smell another win for the Dogs. MSU wins at home.
Missouri @ Boston College- The Eagles are one of only 2 remaining unbeatens in the ACC, but their wins are over an FCS team, UMass, and Temple (UMass and Temple are a combined 1-5 with the win over Akron). The Tigers haven't really beaten anyone either, but have a 7-point loss to unbeaten Kentucky on their resume'. This is the 1st ever meeting between the two. Mizzou wins.
FIU @ Central Michigan- Both teams are 1-2, with victories over FCS teams and blowout losses to P5 teams. Flip a coin. Chippewas defeat the Panthers at home in this 1st ever meeting.
New Hampshire @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers will rebound and demolish the 3-0 Wildcats.
Richmond @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies will squash the 2-1 Spiders.
Bowling Green @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers are 2-1 against the Falcons, winning in 1986 and 2008, and losing in 2007. Gophers win easily.
Ohio @ Northwestern- The Wildcats, who lead the series 3-1, will get their 1st FBS win over the struggling Bobcats.
SMU @ TCU- The Battle for the Iron Skillet is a big one this year as both teams come in unbeaten. The Horned Frogs lead the series 51-41-7, and have won 7 of the last 8, and 17 of the last 20, but the Mustangs won 41-38 in their most recent meeting, in 2019. Each team is expected to challenge for their respective conference championship, but the Frogs are coming out of an off week. The Ponies will give them a game, but TCU wins.
Texas Tech @ Texas- Not many series are as one-sided as this one, with the Longhorns leading 53-17 and sporting a 3-game winning streak, but the Red Raiders have won 2 of the last 6. TT comes in unbeaten, but with wins over Houston, FIU, and an FCS team. UT has decisive wins over Louisiana and Rice, and a loss to Arkansas. I'm tempted to go with the Raiders, and if this were in Lubbock, I might actually do it, but the 'Horns win in Austin.
Wagner @ Temple- The Owls get their 2nd win over the 0-3 Seahawks.
Miami, Oh @ Army- The Redhawks are a quality team, but this is what the Black Knights do- beat up on G5 teams. The series is tied 3-3 with Army winning the most recent matchup in 2018, 31-30. Army makes it 2 in a row.
Boise State @ Utah State- I look at their respective records, and I see that the Aggies are 3-0, with victories over Washington State, Air Force, and an FCS team, and I see that the Broncos are 1-2, with their only win over UTEP, and losses to UCF and Oklahoma State, the latter at home, and I think it's obvious who should win. But then I look at the series record, which leans heavily in Boise State's favor at 20-5-0, with the Broncos winning the last 5, and 17 of the last 18, and I'm not so sure. Until someone within the MWC Mountain Division shows otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Boise State is the team to beat. Can Utah State be that team? Sure. Will they be? Nope. Broncos win.
Central Connecticut @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes will wash over the 1-2 Blue Devils.
UMass @ Coastal Carolina- The Chanticleers have defeated the Minutemen all 3 times they have met, each time by double digits. Make it 4. CCU wins big.
San Jose State @ Western Michigan- The Broncos are fresh off an upset win over Pitt, and are one of only 2 MAC teams with a winning record at this point (EMU is the other). The Spartans struggled against a mediocre (at best) Hawaii team last week. WMU wins at home in this 1st ever meeting.
Toledo @ Ball State- The Rockets and Cardinals are both 1-2, with both victories over FCS teams. Toledo played Notre Dame close, but lost to a terrible Colorado State team at home. Ball State was routed on the road by both Penn State and Wyoming, but their victory over their FCS team was closer than Toledo's. The Rockets lead the all-time series 24-21-1, but the Cardinals have won the last 2, breaking a 5-game Toledo winning streak. Flip a coin. Toledo wins.
Texas State @ Eastern Michigan- The Bobcats had played well before losing to FCS Incarnate Word last week. The Eagles are one of 2 MAC teams with a winning record (WMU is the other), and their only loss is on the road to Wisconsin. If it's close TSU has a good chance to win. It won't be close. EMU wins.
Maine @ Northern Illinois- The Huskies will maul the 1-2 Black Bears.
Washington State @ Utah- Surprisingly, this series is tied at 9 apiece, with the Utes winning the last 2, both in Salt Lake City, so this is the 3rd straight time this is being played on the road for the Cougars. Like one of the MAC games above, both teams are 1-2, with both wins coming against FCS teams. Both teams have also lost to an MWC team. Can't get much more similar resume's than that. Utah wins at home.
Colorado State @ Iowa- The Rams have scored more than 24 points once in their last 10 games. The Hawkeyes haven't given up more than 24 in 25 games. Meanwhile, CSU has allowed 24+ in 7 of their last 8, and Iowa has scored 24+ in 9 straight. This looks like a disaster waiting to happen. Iowa wins big.
Texas A&M @ Arkansas (Arlington)- The Razorbacks are 3-0, winning by an average margin of 41-16. The Aggies are 3-0 and winning by an average margin of 28.3-5.7. Both play good defense, but one is playing better offense than the other. On paper, it looks like UA has played better competition, and the Razorbacks have already matched last year's 3 wins. Arkansas leads the all-time series 41-33-3, but the Aggies have won the last 9 in a row, 5 by 7 points or less. Expect another close game, but until the Razorbacks show it in the SEC, I'm going with the "proven" commodity. TAMU wins.
Clemson @ NC State- The Tigers have scored only 17 points against FBS foes in 2 games this year, but their defense has only given up 9. The Wolfpack scored 45 ppg in 2 games against lesser competition, but only 10 against Miss State. They allowed 7 total points to those lesser 2 teams, but 24 against MSU. I'm not sure there will be a lot of scoring in this game. Clemson leads the series 59-28-1, and has won 8 straight, and 15 of the last 16. Expect them to win again. Clemson wins a close one.
Iowa State @ Baylor- The Bears come in undefeated, but have beaten Texas St, an FCS team, and Kansas- so basically, 3 FCS level teams. The Cyclones have a loss, to rival Iowa, but they're expected to challenge for the conference title. Baylor is not. Baylor leads the series 10-9, but ISU has won 3 of the last 4. ISU wins.
Rutgers @ Michigan- Each team comes in at 3-0, and each has a victory over a P5 team. The Wolverines have also beaten 2 MAC teams while the Scarlet Knights have defeated an AAC team and an FCS team. Michigan leads the series 6-1, having won the last 6, and won last year in 3 OTs. With this being in The Big House, I see UM winning for a 7th straight time.
UTSA @ Memphis- The Tigers have won a close game each of the last 2 weeks, including a victory over a P5 team. The Roadrunners also own a victory over a P5 team, as these 2 have similar record profiles. This should be a good game! Memphis wins a close one in this 1st ever meeting.
Louisville @ FSU- The Cardinals have played well since their opening loss to Ole Miss. The Seminoles have gone the opposite direction since their opening loss to Notre Dame. At some point, FSU will start winning again. FSU leads the series overwhelmingly, 16-5, but UL has won 3 of the last 5, including 48-16 last year. I wouldn't be surprised if the score was similar this year. UL wins.
Illinois @ Purdue- A series can't get any closer than this one, as it's tied at 45-45-6, though the Boilermakers have won 4 of the last 5. Purdue has played well, with a P5 win, a win over UConn, and a competitive loss to Notre Dame. The Illini has played well in 3 out of 4 games- a win over Nebraska, close losses to UTSA and Maryland, and a blowout loss to Virginia. This should be a close game, but Purdue should pull this one out in the end.
Kent State @ Maryland- The Golden Flashes have been routed by Texas A&M and Iowa, but it's safe to say the Terrapins aren't on the level of either of those 2 teams. However, the Terps are undefeated with one score wins over West Virginia and on the road at Illinois. This could be a close game, but UM pulls it out. Maryland wins this 1st ever meeting.
Wyoming @ UConn- This is another 1st-time meeting. The Cowboys look to enter MWC play next week unbeaten, and the Huskies are just the team to do it against, as UConn is on a 8-game losing streak, with all but 1 loss by double digits, and their defense has allowed at least 31 points in each of their last 9 games, and 14 of their last 15. Wyoming wins easily.
Towson @ San Diego State- The Aztecs remain undefeated by taming the 1-2 Tigers.
Georgia State @ Auburn- The Panthers got their 1st win last week, but that was against the CUSA's Charlotte. The Tigers are in a whole different league, and no amount of lineup shuffling will make a bit of difference. War Eagles win in a rout in this 1st ever matchup.
Kansas @ Duke- With their win over Northwestern last week, the Blue Devils have matched last year's 2 wins, and now have an outside chance at 6 wins and bowl eligibility, though their opening loss to Charlotte severely dampens those prospects. To get there, they desperately need this win, meaning they only need 3 more in ACC play. The Jayhawks, on the other hand probably realize that this is their only chance at an FBS win this year (their only win is over FCS South Dakota). The series is tied 1-1, with each winning in a rout at home- Kansas in 2009, Duke in 2014. Duke wins at home.
Arkansas State @ Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane are 0-3, but have lost to FCS UC-Davis by 2, to Okla St by 5, and were within 7 of Ohio State halfway through the 4th quarter in a 21-point loss. The Red Wolves beat their FCS opponent, lost to an excellent Memphis team by 5, and then were stomped by Washington by 7 TDs. ASU leads the series 3-2, winning the most recent contest in 2018 (the other 4 were played between 1978 and 2003). Tulsa gets its 1st win at home.
UCLA @ Stanford- The Cardinal have been dominant the last 2 weeks after losing their opener at Kansas State, averaging 41.5 ppg those 2 games and allowing 25.5. The Bruins were upset by Fresno State last week, but their offense is just fine, scoring 37+ in every game, though it has declined each week. The UCLA defense is going in the opposite direction, giving up 10, then 27, and now 40. UCLA leads the series 46-43-3, but Stanford has won 12 of the last 13, with the Bruins' victory coming in 2019. Stanford wins.
Buffalo @ ODU- Each team has routed an FCS team, and been blown out by a P5 team, but the Bulls nearly defeated Coastal Carolina while the Monarchs were getting blown out again by Liberty. Buffalo wins this 1st-time meeting.
Charleston Southern @ East Carolina- The Pirates will skewer the 1-1 Buccaneers.
Louisiana @ Georgia Southern- The Ragin' Cajuns lead this series 3-1, including 2-0 in Statesboro. The Eagles are struggling so far this year, and this is certainly not the easiest conference opener. While the Cajuns have the better record, I expect GSU to make this difficult. UL wins, but it will be close.
Texas Southern @ Rice- The Owls get their 1st win over the 0-2 Tigers.
Tennessee @ Florida- The Volunteers are actually ahead of the Gators in the SEC East standings, but that's only because the Vols haven't played a conference game yet, and the Gators are 0-1. Florida leads the series 30-20, have won 4 straight, 15 of the last 16, and haven't lost to UT in the Swamp since 2003. Unless UF has a huge letdown after last week's near upset against Alabama, this game shouldn't be close. Florida wins, but it may take until the 3rd quarter to pull away. Or not.
Nebraska @ Michigan State- The Cornhuskers have played better after their opening loss to Illinois, and may have turned the proverbial corner, but I'm not ready to jump on that bandwagon just yet. The Spartans have looked outstanding in their 3 victories, winning by at least 17 points on the road at both Northwestern and Miami (Florida, not Ohio). The Huskers lead the series, that began in 1914, 9-2, winning the last 2 in 2015 and 2018, but MSU won the 2 before that. This may be a close game, but MSU wins.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State- In the past, I've jumped on the KSU bandwagon early, and been burned. This year, I've been cautious, and I've been burned. I just can't win with the Wildcats. The Cowboys are 3-0, but have narrow victories over an FCS team, a winless Tulsa, and on the road at Boise State (currently 1-2). The Wildcats are also 3-0, but with a 17 point win over Stanford (since undefeated), a close win over an FCS team, and a 21 point win over a previously unbeaten Nevada. This will be KSU's 1st true road game (the Stanford game was in Arlington). OSU leads the series 41-26, but they've split the last 4, with the Cowboys winning the last 2. I'm going to go with my gut and pick KSU to win a close one on the road.
Kentucky @ South Carolina- The Wildcats come in undefeated, but their last 2 wins have been nail biters. The Gamecocks have a ways to go to compete consistently in the SEC. This game will go a long way in telling us where these 2 programs stand in the pecking order in the SEC East. SC leads the series 18-13-1, but UK has won 6 of the last 7, though SC won the last time these 2 played in Columbia. UK wins, and I'll be surprised if it's close.
North Texas @ La Tech- These conference foes come in with identical 1-2 records. The Bulldogs lead the series 12-7, and have won 3 straight, and 12 of the last 15. However, the Mean Green is 2-2 in the last 4 played in Ruston. LT was competitive in their losses against an SEC team and SMU. NT was blown out by SMU and conference mate UAB. La Tech wins.
Navy @ Houston- The Cougars lead the series 5-2, and unless the Midshipmen made drastic improvement during their off-week, it's about to be 6-2. Houston wins.
Southern Miss @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide lead the series 35-6-2, have won the last 7, and 20 of the last 22 meetings against the Golden Eagles. Tide rolls.
West Virginia @ Oklahoma- The Sooners have looked vulnerable, but I don't think they're vulnerable enough to lose to the Mountaineers, who are only averaging 25.5 ppg on offense against FBS opponents, and are allowing 25.5 against those same 2 teams. Meanwhile, OU is averaging 31.5 ppg, and is allowing 25.5. OU leads WVU in the series 10-2, having won the last 8 (since WVU joined the Big 12). Oklahoma wins a close one.
Akron @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes are another top shelf team that has looked beatable this year, but the Zips have zero chance to do so. OSU leads the series 7-1, with Akron's lone win coming in 1894. To be fair, 4 of OSU's 7 wins are also in the 1890s; the other 3 were in 2001, 2007, and 2011. OSU wins easily.
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech- The Tar Heels are back on track to win the ACC Coastal after their opening loss to Va Tech, and this is another opportunity for a division win after their victory over UVA last week. The Yellow Jackets took Clemson to the wire last week before succumbing, but they still have a loss to a MAC team on their record. GT leads the series 30-21-3, and have won 2 of the last 3, but UNC won the last meeting in 2019, 38-22. The Jackets may give them a game early, but the Heels win big.
FAU @ Air Force- In their only previous meeting, in 2018 in Ft. Lauderdale, the Owls won 32-27. Both teams enter this game at 2-1, and this game could go either way. Go with the home team. Falcons win.
UAB @ Tulane- The Green Wave were embarrassed last week versus Ole Miss, and so will be looking to redeem themselves, much like the Blazers did after their blowout loss to UGA 2 weeks ago. Defensively, UAB has given up only 6 points in the non-UGA games, while scoring 71 on offense. Tulane has looked a little more inconsistent. The series is tied 5-5, with UAB winning the most recent contest in 2018. All signs are pointing toward a UAB win. I'm ignoring the signs and going with my gut feeling. Tulane wins in a mild upset.
Indiana @ WKU- The Hoosiers have had a disappointing season so far with losses at home to Cincinnati and on the road at Iowa, both by 14+ points, but they should be able to handle the Hilltoppers, even though WKU is coming out of an off week. IU leads the series 3-0. Indy wins.
Troy @ ULM- The Trojans got a much needed win over Southern Miss, while the Warhawks were ending a 12-game losing streak with a 5-point win over an FCS team. ULM hasn't beaten an FBS team since defeating Coastal Carolina (of all teams!) in 2019. Troy leads the series 10-7-1, and has won the last 2, breaking a 4-game ULM win streak in the series. Troy wins.
Hawaii @ New Mexico State- Both teams come in at 1-3, with both wins over FCS teams. The Rainbow Warriors have defeated the Aggies in all 8 previous meetings. Make it 9. Hawaii wins.
New Mexico @ UTEP- This game is crucial for any slim hopes these teams harbor for bowl eligibility. Both are 2-1, and a win here would mean needing only 3 conference wins to get there. The Lobos have a tougher path, but they have already matched the win totals of each of the past 2 years, and 1 more win would match their best win total of the last 4 years. In addition, UNM has won 4 of their last 5 games, their only loss being last week at Texas A&M. The Miners have an easier path, being in CUSA, and they are coming out of an off week. UNM leads the series 43-32-3, but UTEP has won 3 of the last 4, including the last meeting in 2014. This should be a close, hard fought game. UTEP wins at home.
California @ Washington- The Huskies finally got a win last week, beating up on an SBC team. The Golden Bears did the same, but had a little trouble with an FCS team. UW leads the all-time series 54-41-4, but the Bears have won the last 2. go with the home team. Washington wins.
USF @ BYU- Though the Bulls won the only previous meeting, 27-23 in 2019, this is going to be a rout. Cougars win easily, scoring early and often.
Arizona @ Oregon- The Wildcats have lost 15 straight, and now get to play the Ducks, who are rolling. OU leads the series 27-17, and the Ducks have won 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 6 played in Eugene. I will be surprised if this is close past the 1st quarter. Oregon wins big.
Oregon State @ USC- Talk about a lopsided series- USC leads this one 63-11-4, and have won the last 4. The Trojans looked like a completely different team after falling behind Wazzu 14-0 last week, and if they continue that, it will be a long night for the Beavers, who also seem to be improved. OSU hasn't won in Los Angeles since 1960 (0-24 since). USC wins, but it could be closer than expected.
Colorado @ Arizona State- I still believe in the Buffaloes, but they may be a year or two away before they're ready to compete in the Pac 12 South, and I choose to believe that last week was just a blip on their journey. The Sun Devils haven't looked overly impressive in beating an FCS team and UNLV, and then losing to BYU, and there seems to be a lot of chaos in Tempe. ASU leads the series 8-3, but Colorado has won 3 of the last 4, and the last 2 in a row. I may be crazy, but I'm going with the Buffs in a mild upset.
That's all for this week- "only" 67 games after 73+ games each of the last 3 weeks!
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