Paul's Picks Week 8 10/22/2020

Welcome Back!

Once again, for the 2nd week in a row, I was pretty miserable with my picks.  I went 17-11, or 60.7%, which is WAY below the standard I have set for myself, though it was a slight improvement from the week before.  Overall, I am now 119-49, or 70.8%, a drop of more than 2.1% from last week!  My goal every year is to finish at or above 80%, though I've never actually achieved that, but I almost always finish above 75%.  Last year I finished at 76.5% for the regular season, and 76.2% overall, which isn't too shabby.  

I'm not sure why I have been so off so far this year, but I have a few theories.  The first is that there are fewer "gimme" games on which to fatten up my percentage, no Arkansas vs. Charleston Southern, for example, and more games between teams that are roughly equal, i.e. conference games.  This makes predicting a little more difficult.  Another possibility, which is related to the first, is that there have been fewer games overall.  I'm not missing more games per week, but I am winning less games, because the total number of games are down.  Again, this is because of the dearth of non-conference games.  Lastly, there has been a lot of postponements and teams with players (and coaches) being held out due to testing positive for the corona virus, and a lot of that is not known by me until after I make my picks.  Again, this is not my full-time job; I am merely a fan who enjoys college football, and so I'm not able to follow the sport 24/7/365.  I have a "real" job that takes up much of my time, and a family, too.  Maybe I'll get things turned around this week!

I want to point out that my predictions come simply from 45+ years of watching and following college football.  I do not have the time (or staff!) to do massive research into depth charts, injuries, transfers, etc, and so, if I were you, I certainly wouldn't take my picks to Vegas (or wherever) and bet the mortgage with them!  My brothers and I have been predicting the games among ourselves off and on for many years, and I should point out that I haven't "won" in a while, but I also haven't finished last, either, so there's that.  Anyway... let's get to the picks!

Thursday October 22

Arkansas State @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers haven't played since Sept 26, so it has been almost exactly a month.  App St leads the series over the Red Wolves 2-1, with each team winning on the road (the home team has never won), and they last met in 2018.  The Red Wolves have looked impressive with their only losses to Memphis and CCU.  App St has been the class of the league for the last 5 years, and until someone knocks them off that perch, I'm going to keep riding the Mountaineers.  App St wins a close one at home, breaking the pattern.

Friday, October 23

Jacksonville State @ FIU- The Panthers are winless at 0-2, but they should have no problems with the FCS Gamecocks.  FIU wins easily.

Tulsa @ USF- The Bulls have yet to win a game against FBS competition, but came close last week, losing by 2 @Temple.  The Golden Hurricane have only played 2 games, losing by 9 @Okla St and upsetting UCF by 8 in Orlando.  USF leads the series 3-0, but all 3 wins, in 2014, 2017, and 2018, have been by 1 score (8 points or less).  Tulsa hasn't played since Oct 3, but they will get their 1st win in the series.

Illinois @ Wisconsin- The Big Ten finally begins play with this Big Ten West matchup.  The Illini upset the Badgers last year for their 1st win in the series since 2007.  Overall, UW leads 42-38-7, much closer than you would expect, but you have to remember that the Badgers have only been a real force in college football for the last 25 years or so.  UW has won 13 of the last 15 in this series, but Illinois won 11 of 12 between 1981 and 1992.  After a step back in year 2, HC Lovie Smith has made steady progress the last 2 years in Champaign, so a 2nd straight win over the Badgers would get year 5 off to a great start.  But UW has been the best team in the Big Ten West 3 of the last 4 years, and I expect them to make it 4 of 5.  They won't lose to the Illini again.  Wisconsin wins.

Louisiana @ UAB- The Ragin' Cajuns suffered their 1st loss of 2020 last week, but this is a tough team to try to right the ship against.  The Blazers are 4-1 with their only loss to Miami.  UAB leads the series 4-2, but these 2 teams haven't met since the 2000 season.  UAB wins a close one.

Saturday, October 24

Syracuse @ Clemson- The Orange just may be the worst team in the ACC, their win over GT notwithstanding.  The Tigers have yet to be challenged.  Clemson leads the series 6-2.  I wouldn't be surprised if the margin of victory for Clemson in this game is close to the 66 points of last week's MOV over GT.  Clemson wins in a rout.

Nebraska @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes have won 3 straight Big Ten titles, and have won at least 10 games in 8 straight seasons (that will end this year as they are only playing 8 games, unless they go undefeated or have only one loss, win the Big Ten CG, and win 1 or more games in the CFB Playoff).  The Cornhuskers haven't had double digit wins since 2012, and haven't had a winning season since 2016.  OSU leads the series 7-1, with Nebraska's only victory coming in 2011.  Only 1 of the last 5 meetings has been closer than 25 points (OSU won 36-31 in 2018).  Buckeyes win easily at home.

NC State @ North Carolina- The Wolfpack is on a 3-game winning streak while the Tar Heels suffered their 1st loss last week, being upset by FSU.  This is the 110th meeting between these 2 teams, with UNC leading 67-36-6.  However, despite UNC's 41-10 win last year, NC State has won 3 of the last 4, and 4 of the last 6. This should be a good game. I think the Tar Heels bounce back and win a close one.  

Kansas @ Kansas State- I have no confidence in the Jayhawks.  Though they lead the series 65-47-5, the Wildcats have won 11 straight, and 23 of the last 27, the only glitch being the Mangino years at Kansas.  KSU stays undefeated in the Big 12 with a big win.

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina- The Eagles finally looked like a good team with their 41-0 dismantling of UMass last week, but UMass is quite possibly the worst team that will play a game this fall- and that was their only scheduled game.  They have 2 close wins over an FCS team and the worst team in the SBC (ULM).  CCU, on the other hand, is undefeated, with wins over a P5 team (even if it is Kansas), the same FCS team GSU beat, Ark St, and Louisiana (who GSU lost to).  GSU leads the series 5-1, but most of the games have been relatively close.  This seems to be the year for the Chanticleers.  CCU wins a close one.

Auburn @ Ole Miss- The Tigers have looked decent on alternating weeks, and it's their week to win.  The Rebels have looked fine on offense (36.5 ppg), but are giving up an average of 47 ppg.  AU leads the all-time series 33-10, having won the last 4, and 31 of the last 37, including the last 3 in Oxford and 4 of the last 5.  This could be a close game, but the Plainsmen will win.  War Eagle!

Oklahoma @ TCU- I just don't see OU losing 3 games in the same season, as that hasn't happened since 2014 when they finished 8-5.  The Horned Frogs are a quality team, but at just 1-2, it's hard to justify them for the upset here, even if the game is in Fort Worth, especially since TCU is 0-2 at home this season.  The Sooners lead the all-time series 15-5, have won the last 6, and 9 of the last 10.  OU wins easily.

Temple @ Memphis- The Owls have played 2 close games, losing to Navy by 2 and winning by 2 over USF.  The Tigers are coming off a huge win over UCF, and could be due for a letdown.  Temple leads the series 3-2, but the teams have alternated wins, and it's Memphis' turn.  Good enough for me.  Tigers win.

UTEP @ Charlotte- The 49ers are 1-2, but played App St tough, and only lost to FAU by 4.  The Miners are a surprising 3-2, but 2 of their wins are over FCS teams, and their other is over a Sun Belt bottom feeder (ULM).  However, they did only lose to La Tech by 4.  Charlotte won last year in their only prior meeting 28-21.  I expect another close game, but go with the home team.  49ers win.

FSU @ Louisville- The Seminoles pulled off a huge upset last week over UNC, but they have basically played 2 good halves against FBS competition all year- the 1st halves against GT and UNC, but they were shutout in the 2nd half of both games.  The Cardinals are on a 4-game losing streak, but played Notre Dame to within 5 points, and held them to 1 TD, a huge improvement defensively.  I have no confidence that FSU has turned anything around, nor do I believe the Cardinals have.  FSU leads the series 16-4, and though they have won the last 2, they have only won 4 of the last 7.  This is pretty much a coin flip, so I'm going with the home team.  Louisville wins.

Rutgers @ Michigan State- Raise your hand if you think the Scarlet Knights are any better than they have been for the last 5 years? Yeah, me either.  The Spartans lead the series 8-3, and have won all 6 meetings since Rutgers joined the Big Ten in 2014, which means the Knights were actually 3-2 before joining, with their last win in 2004.  The Spartans are in their 1st year under Mel Tucker, but if you can't beat Rutgers, you're in for a LONG year.  MSU wins.

Mercer @ Army- This is the 3rd FCS opponent for the Black Knights.  The Caissons will roll along over the Bears.  Army wins big.

Southern Miss @ Liberty- The undefeated Flames continue to defy expectations.  At least my expectations, as I keep picking against them.  One of these days, I'm bound to be right.  Liberty has beaten an FCS team, 2 CUSA teams, an SBC team and an ACC team, and now they try their hand at another CUSA team.  The Golden Eagles are only 1-3, but 2 of their losses were close.  This is the 1st meeting between these 2 teams.  I may be crazy, but I'm going against Liberty again.  USM wins.

Tulane @ UCF- Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons so far, with the Knights on a 2-game losing streak.  How likely is it that it becomes a 3-game streak? UCF leads the series 7-2, and has won the last 2, but they are 4-0 in Orlando.  The Green Wave has played well at times, but has been inconsistent.  This should be a close game, like last year's 34-31 UCF win.  UCF wins again.

FAU @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd have exceeded expectations so far in 2020, as they stand at 4-0.  The Owls have only played 1 game, beating USM by 4 three weeks ago.  The Herd leads the series 6-1, is 3-0 at home, and has won the last 2.  Marshall wins again.

Alabama @ Tennessee- The Crimson Tide is averaging 48.5 ppg, and the Volunteers are allowing 29.25.  Even if you split the difference, that's still 39 points.  The Vols haven't scored 40 points or more since beating South Carolina in mid-season last year, and have only done it twice against FBS teams in the last 3 and a half seasons.  Bama leads the series against the Vols 56-38-7, and have won 13 straight.  Make it 14.  Tide wins easily.

Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers have struggled mightily on defense the last 3 games, which may be just what the Fighting Irish need to fix the offensive woes they experienced last week against Louisville.  The Irish lead the series 48-21-1 and have won 5 of the last 6.  ND wins easily, and stays on track to face Clemson in the ACCCG.

Iowa State @ Oklahoma State- The Cyclones seem to have turned their season around since their opening loss to Louisiana.  The Cowboys are the only undefeated team left in the Big 12, though their toughest competition has been Tulsa (or maybe 3-1 W Virginia).  I'm not convinced that OSU won't melt at the first sign of true pressure.  The Cowboys lead the series 32-19-3 and have won 7 of the last 8, but these 2 have split the last 2.  ISU wins in a mild upset.

Penn State @ Indiana- The Hoosiers always seem to be on the verge of a breakthrough, but last year, they went 8-4 in the regular season, then lost their bowl game by 1.  The Nittany Lions won 11 games for the 3rd time in 4 years (they won 9 in 2018).  The series tilts quite far in PSU's favor, as they lead 22-1, with Indy's only victory in 2013 in Bloomington.  The last 2 games have been decided by a combined 12 points.  I'm tempted to pick Indiana, as this game is also In Bloomington, but I just can't do it.  Lions win.

Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest- The Demon Deacons started 2020 slowly, losing their 1st 2 (Clemson and NC St), but they've won their last 2 (Campbell and UVA).  The Hokies are 3-1, their only loss to UNC.  VT leads the series 25-12-1, and has won 6 of the last 7, but they've split the last 2, though these teams don't play often (before last year, their previous meeting was in 2014).  This could be a high-scoring affair, as both teams are averaging 40+ ppg.  VT wins.

Middle Tennessee @ Rice- The Owls have yet to play a game while the Blue Raiders have played 6 (winning 1).  IF they play this game, I expect the team that has played games to have the advantage.  These teams have only met once, with Rice winning 31-28 last year as the 1st of their 3-game winning streak at the end of the year.  It's hard to know how to pick this one.  I'm going with MTSU.

Houston @ Navy- The Midshipmen have had a strange season, looking great at times (comeback win over Tulane) and looking awful at others (being routed by BYU and Air Force).  However, they are 3-0 and lead the AAC.  The Cougars have only played twice, but both are teams that have already played Navy, and they actually had better results against both Tulane and BYU, though they are only 1-1. UH leads the series 4-2, but they've split the last 4 with Navy winning last year by 15.  Just a hunch, but I'm going with Navy.

Baylor @ Texas- The Longhorns have dominated this series 78-27-4, but they've lost their last 2 games against TCU and Oklahoma.  The Bears have only played twice, and at 1-1 are still a relatively unknown quality.  I just don't see UT losing 3 straight games, as that hasn't happened since 2016.  In the Big 12, Texas is averaging 46.3 ppg while allowing 47.3.  Texas wins, but it could come down to whoever has the ball last.

Iowa @ Purdue- One of the surprising results from last year was Purdue's fall from decency to a 4-8 record. However, they did win 2 of their last 4.  The Hawkeyes have generally been good for 7 wins a year, as they have won 7 or more 16 of the last 19 years, including the last 7 straight.  The Boilermakers lead the series 48-39-3, and have won 2 of the last 3, but Iowa won last year's tilt 26-20, and has won 10 of the last 14.  Iowa wins, but I expect Purdue to be better this year.  However, with no OOC games, their record may not show it.

Georgia State @ Troy- The Panthers continue to play well, but continue to lose.  The Trojans have not played all that well, but keep winning.  At some point, the script has to flip.  Troy leads the series 5-2, but GS won last year by 19.  I still believe in the Panthers.  GSU wins.

Georgia Tech @ Boston College- The Yellow Jackets got a little taste of how little Cumberland College must have felt in 1916 when they were walloped by Clemson last week 73-7.  At 2-2 in the ACC, they are currently in the middle of the pack.  The Eagles are also 2-2 in the ACC, but somehow, they seem like the better team.  Tech actually leads the series 7-2, but they haven't played since 2016, and have only played 3 times since 2007, all wins by the Jackets.  BC wins.

Chattanooga @ WKU- The Hilltoppers are a disappointing 1-4, but they should be able to handle the Mocs.  WKU wins handily.

Kentucky @ Missouri- This game was rescheduled from Oct 31 to accommodate Florida's COVID problems (and give the Gators an extra week).  The Wildcats have won 5 straight in the series, which they lead 7-3, which includes 2 wins from the 1960s.  UK has ramped up the defense the last 2 games, giving up a combined 9 points after allowing a combined 71 in the 1st 2 games.  The Tigers have only played 3 games, but their defense is allowing an average of 38 ppg, while their offense has only passed 20 points in 1 of the 3.  I still believe in UK.  Kentucky wins.

West Virginia @ Texas Tech- The Mountaineers are off to a fantastic start at 3-1, and are 2-1 in the Big 12.  However, their wins have been against Kansas and Baylor, 2 teams expected to finish near the bottom.  The Red Raiders are only 1-3, with no wins against FBS teams, but have lost to Texas, Kansas St, and Iowa St, 3 teams expected to be near the top.  This should be a good, competitive game.  WVU leads the series 6-3, but TT won last year by 21 in Morgantown.  I think Neal Brown is building something at WVU and this is the type of game he needs to win for that to happen.  WVU wins.

South Carolina @ LSU- Against teams not named Vanderbilt, the Tigers' defense has been horrible, allowing 44 and 45 points, but they've had an extra week to fix their problems.  Offensively, they've been fine, averaging 38.7 ppg.  The Gamecocks have done somewhat better defensively, but are not as good offensively.  Oddly, both of these teams defeated Vandy by the same score, 41-7.  LSU leads the series 18-2-1, and has won the last 6, but they've only played twice within the last decade.  The Gamecocks are on a 2-game winning streak, so I think they'll defeat the Bayou Bengals.  SC wins.

ULM @ South Alabama- The Warhawks are 0-5, and only a 5-point loss to Ga Southern was less than 21 points, with 2 losses being by more than 30.  The Jaguars have played surprisingly well, with an upset win over USM, a narrow loss to Tulane, and a win over hard-luck Texas St.  ULM leads the series 4-2 and have won the last 2 handily, but USA takes this one at home.

Utah State @ Boise State- The Broncos have been the class of the Mountain West Conference, losing no more than 1 conference game in 6 of the last 9 years.  The Aggies have been a little more inconsistent, but have lost 2 or less in 4 of their 7 years in the MWC.  Boise leads the series 19-5, winning 4 straight and 16 of the last 17.  Coming off a 12-2 season versus USU coming off a 7-6 season, I (and everyone else) expect the Broncos to be the better team.  Boise St wins.

Wyoming @ Nevada- The Cowboys have won 8 games in 3 of the last 4 years, and have quietly become a consistent winner after last winning 8 or more in back-to-back seasons in 1987-88, when they went 10-3 and 11-2 in the old WAC.  They have also only won 8 games 1 other time this century, in 2011 when they went 8-5.  Their 3 bowls in 4 years matches what they did under Paul Roach from 1987-90.  The Wolfpack have not been a model of consistency, but they have had some good years.  Wyoming has 3 straight wins in the series to pull ahead 5-3, and they won 31-3 last year.  This could be a really good game.  Wyoming wins.

Michigan @ Minnesota- These teams used to play every year, before the Big Ten split into divisions, but they have still met 14 times over the last 22 years.  The Wolverines have dominated the series, leading 75-25-3, and have won 41 of the last 45 (since 1968), which means this series used to be MUCH closer.  The current win streak, however, is only 2 games, with the Golden Gophers winning 30-14 in 2014.  Minnesota had a breakout season in 2019, but the question remains whether that was the beginning of a new era, or a one year aberration.  This will be their 1st meeting since 2017, a 33-10 Michigan win.  I'm not convinced Michigan will catch OSU any time soon, but Minnesota ain't OSU.  Michigan wins a close one.

Hawai'i @ Fresno State- This has been a competitive series, with Fresno State pulling into the lead 29-22-1 due to winning 8 of the last 9.  The Rainbow Warriors had an unusually good season in 2019, and the Bulldogs had an unusually bad one.  Hawai'i usually has trouble on the mainland, and I expect things to return to "normal".  FS wins.

Maryland @ Northwestern- Both of these teams were 3-9 last year, but only one of these head coaches has a proven track record of success.  The Terrapins and Wildcats have only met once, a 37-21 NW win in 2017.  I foresee a similar result.  NU wins.

Virginia @ Miami- The Hurricanes look like one of the better teams in the ACC, as their 3-1 record attests.  The Cavaliers have been disappointing, starting 1-3, and allowing 38+ points in each of their 3 losses while being held to 23 points or less.  The U leads the series 10-7 (much closer than I expected) with wins in 4 of the last 5 years (UVA won in 2018).  Miami should win this one easily.

La Tech @ UTSA- The Roadrunners have lost 3 straight after starting the season 3-0, but to be honest, they also had a step up in competition.  That continues this week against the Bulldogs, who are 3-2.  The one point in UTSA's favor is that they played BYU much closer than LT did.  The Bulldogs lead the series 7-1, and have won the last 6, including by 14 last year.  LT wins again.

Cincinnati @ SMU- This is a battle between 2 undefeated teams.  The Mustangs have looked dominant against weaker competition, but have won 2 close games against roughly equal teams.  The Bearcats have played 2 less games, and haven't played since Oct 3, but beat AAC favorite UCF by 21.  UC leads the series 3-1, but 3 of the 4 have been won by 6 points or less.  I expect another close game with Cincy pulling it out in the end, maybe on a late FG.

Texas State @ BYU- I keep picking against the Cougars, and they keep proving me wrong.  I'm not making that mistake again.  This is the 1st meeting between these 2 schools.  BYU wins in a rout.

UNLV @ San Diego State- The Aztecs have won 10+ games 4 of the last 5 years.  The Rebels are starting over yet again with new coach Marcus Arroyo.  SDSU leads the series 20-9, which includes victories in 5 of the last 6.  Make it 6 of 7.  SDSU wins easily.

Air Force @ San Jose State- The Spartans haven't had a winning record since 2012, when they went 11-2.  The Falcons have a history of winning, with 9 winning records in the last 13 years.  AF started the year with a resounding 40-7 win over Navy, so they are the only MWC team with a game under their belts.  AF leads the series 4-1.  AF wins easily.

That's all for today!  Feel free to leave a comment, follow me on Twitter (@pbanderson), or subscribe to this blog.  Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!