Paul's Picks 2025 Week 11
Welcome Back!
Last week was only slightly better than the week before (which was my worst week so far), as I was 35-17 (67.3%), making me 485-151 overall with a winning percentage of 76.3% (down 0.8% from last week).
This week we are once again at 52 games, the same as last week, but there are some big games. I'm 4-0 so far after the early games, just like last week. Let's see if I can stay above 75% for the year.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, November 6
Georgia Southern @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers hold a 21-17-1 lead in this series, winning 3 of the last 5, but the Eagles have won 4 of the last 7, and 2 of the last 3, including 29-20 last year. However, GS has only won once in Boone since 2007, and that was in 2019. In Division I-AA Quarterfinal Playoff games, each team has won once, and each was at home. In fact, the home team is 27-11-1 in this series. That's good enough for me. App State wins.
UTSA @ USF- The Roadrunners own a 49-21 win in 2023 in San Antonio in the only prior meeting between these 2 teams. The Bulls are 6-2/3-1, losing only at Miami and Memphis, but they were off last week and have won their last 5 home games. UTSA is 4-4/2-2, winning 2 of their last 3 including over Tulane last week, but are only 1-3 on the road this season. Both teams have played UNT, with USF winning 63-36 and UTSA losing 55-17, with both games in Denton. Bulls stampede the Roadrunners.
Friday, November 7
Houston @ UCF- The Knights lead the series 8-3, winning the last 3, and are 4-1 in Orlando (and 1-0 in Winston-Salem, I assume because of weather). The last meeting was in 2023, with UCF winning 27-13 in Orlando. The Cougars are 7-2/4-2, but were upset by WVU last week, with their other loss against Texas Tech, also at home. UH is 4-0 on the road so far this season. The Knights are 4-4/1-4 as they routed the Mountaineers just 3 weeks ago, and they are 4-1 at home. This game could be closer than one might think. Cougars win.
Northwestern @ USC- Unsurprisingly, the Trojans have never lost to the Wildcats, prevailing in all 5 previous matchups: 1952, 1954, 1968, 1969, and in the 1996 Rose Bowl, which is the only time NU scored more than 7 points against USC- they lost 41-32. The Wildcats have had a decent season so far at 5-3/3-2, already surpassing last year's 4 wins (and 2 Big Ten wins), but their biggest wins are against UCLA and Penn State, 2 teams that are 3-7 within the conference, and 6-10 overall. The Men of Troy are 6-2/4-1, with losses at Illinois and Notre Dame, and they still harbor hopes of making the CFP. USC wins big.
Tulane @ Memphis- The Tigers hold a 25-15-1 advantage over the Green Wave, but Tulane has won the last 2, in 2022 and '23. Memphis is 8-1/4-1, losing only in an upset at UAB, as they've won 11 in a row at home, including a win over Arkansas. Tulane is 6-2/3-1, losing in a rout at UTSA last week, and earlier in the year- also in a rout- at Ole Miss, but they hold victories over Northwestern and Duke. Both are among a group of 6 teams with only 1 loss in the American Conference, so this game will "thin the herd", so to speak. Tigers win.
Saturday, November 8
Indiana @ Penn State - The Nittany Lions own a dominating 25-2 lead in this series (92.6%) as the Hoosiers have never won in State College. IU's only wins came in 2013 and 2020. PSU is a miserable 3-5/0-5, as they seem to have fallen apart since their loss to Oregon in OT. The Hoosiers are 9-0/6-0, with 5 wins by 45 points or more. If not now, when? IU wins easily.
Georgia @ Mississippi State- Even though both teams are charter members of the SEC, which formed in 1933, these 2 Bulldog teams have only met 27 times, and one was in 1914, before the SEC was formed. UGA has won 21 while MSU has won 6, but only 2 wins were in Starkville- in 1951 and 2010- while 2 were in Jackson- 1970 and 1974- and the other 2 in Athens- 1914 and 1956. These teams were co-members of the SEC for 17 years before they met for the 2nd time ever in 1950, and MSU actually won 3 of the 1st 4 contests, but the Dawgs have lost to those other Dogs just 3 times since 1956, winning the last 5, including 41-31 last year. MSU, 5-4/1-4, broke their long SEC losing streak with a win over Arkansas last week, so now they can just relax and play loose without that hanging over their heads, and that makes them dangerous. UGA is 7-1/5-1, and cannot afford to lose this game if they hope to make the CFP, so they may be a little bit tighter, or perhaps looking ahead to a visit from Texas next week. Dawgs win, despite the 11 am local time start.
BYU @ Texas Tech- Each team has one win in the series, with the Cougars winning 27-14 in 2023 in Provo, and the Red Raiders prevailing 21-20 in Lubbock- in 1940! BYU is 8-0/5-0, and a win would mean a clear path to the Big 12 CG, which barely eluded them last year. TTU is 8-1/5-1, and a win would keep them in the title chase, and could perhaps set up a rematch with the Cougars in Arlington. However, a loss would make it difficult for the Red Raiders to make it into the CFP. The stakes are high, so I'm going with the home team. Texas Tech wins a close one.
SMU @ Boston College- The Mustangs have wins in 1986 and 38-28 last year, but the Eagles own a 23-14 win in the 2023 Fenway Bowl. This will be the 1st time these teams will meet in Chestnut Hill. BC is 1-8/0-5, with no FBS wins. SMU is 6-3/4-1. The Pony Express rides again! SMU wins big.
Colorado @ West Virginia- These teams have played twice before, in 2008 and 2009, with each winning at home. The Buffaloes are 3-6/1-5 with their only conference win over Iowa State almost a month ago, and their last 2 defeats were by at least 35 points each, as the Buffs allowed 53 and 52 points in those 2 contests. The Mountaineers are also 3-6/1-5, but are coming off a win at Houston, as they also own a victory over Pitt (and a loss to MAC power Ohio). WVU wins.
James Madison @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd lead this series 4-1, with 2 of those wins in the 1987 and 1994 Division I-AA Playoffs (both in Huntington), and also in 2022 and 35-33 last year, with both of those in Harrisonburg (which is a pretty place, by the way). JMU's only victory came in 2023 in Huntington. Marshall is 4-4/2-2, dropping a 17-point decision last week to CCU. The Dukes are 7-1/5-0 with their only loss to Louisville on the road in Week 2, and they had their 2nd bye last week. JMU wins.
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State- The Golden Eagles have a 10-4 lead in the series, including a win in the 2005 New Orleans Bowl, but the Red Wolves have won the last 2, including 44-28 last year. USM is 6-2/4-0 and all alone at the top of the SBC West standings, but that's largely because ASU knocked off Troy last week by a score of 23-10. A win this week would put the Red Wolves in 1st place with tie-breaker advantages over both the Eagles and the Trojans as they are 5-4/4-1 and on a 4-game winning streak. The teams are 2-2 in Jonesboro, as the series has been played 8 times in Hattiesburg, and once each in Little Rock (1978) and in Lafayette (for the New Orleans Bowl). This should be a fantastic game with high stakes. USM wins a close one, maybe in OT.
Temple @ Army- This series is tied at 7 wins apiece, with the Black Knights winning the last 3, including 42-14 last year. Army West Point also won the 1st 3 contests, in 1943, 1987, and 1993, and after a loss in 1994, won the next meeting in 2007. The Owls then won the next 6, between 2008 and 2013, as they are 4-2 in West Point. The Black Nights are 4-4/2-3, winning 3 of their last 4, with American Conference losses to UNT, and at ECU and Tulane, and are just 1-2 in Michie Stadium. Temple is 5-4/3-2, with losses to Navy and ECU, as they are 3-1 on the road. Owls pull the road upset to reach bowl eligibility for the 1st time since 2019.
Ohio State @ Purdue- The Buckeyes hold a huge 42-15-2 lead in this series, winning the last 3, but the Boilermakers have actually won 3 times since 2009, all in West Lafayette. But that won't happen this year. OSU wins big.
The Citadel @ Ole Miss- This will be Ole Miss's 2nd meeting against the Bulldogs, following their 27-7 win in Oxford in 2005. Rebels wins easily.
Missouri State @ Liberty- The Flames and Bears have played twice before, with the road team winning each time, LU in 1994 in Springfield, and Mo State winning in 1989 in Lynchburg. Both teams are 3-1 in CUSA, just behind the leaders, so the winner of this game stays in the race while the loser is probably eliminated. MSU's wins were at MTSU and NMSU, and at home vs FIU last week, with their loss vs WKU, as they are 3-1 on the road (loss at USC). The Flames own victories over Delaware (last week) and NMSU, and at UTEP, with their loss at Jax State, as they are 3-1 at home. I'm tempted to pick the Bears, but LU will win a close one.
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan- The Falcons lead this series, 1st played in 1919, by a 25-14-1 mark, but the Eagles have won the last 3, including 55-24 in their last meeting in 2021. This year, BGSU is 3-6/1-4 with an upset win over Toledo. EMU is 2-7/1-4 with their MAC win over NIU. Eagles win this bird fight at home.
UAB @ Rice- The Blazers have a narrow 7-5 lead in the series, winning 40-14 last year, but the Owls have won 2 of the last 3. Rice is 4-5/1-4 with their 1 win at Charlotte, and are only 2-3 at home (losses to FAU, Houston and Memphis). UAB is 3-5/1-3, with their win of the upset variety over Memphis, as they are 0-3 on the road. This game could go either way, as the Blazers are 1-1 under interim HC Alex Mortensen, but I think the Owls swoop in for the victory.
Maryland @ Rutgers- The Terrapins hold a 12-8 lead in this series, winning 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 7, but the Scarlet Knights won 31-17 last year. However, the Terps have won the last 3 played in Piscataway. Rutgers is 4-5/1-5, with their lone Big Ten victory at Purdue. Maryland is 4-4/1-4, with their win at Wisconsin in their Big Ten opener. Fear the Turtle! UM wins.
La Tech @ Delaware- Way back in 1982, the Blue Hens topped the Bulldogs 17-0 in their only previous meeting. LT is 5-3/3-2, with CUSA wins over NMSU, SHS, and at UTEP, and losses to WKU by 1 in OT and at Kennesaw State. Delaware is 4-4/2-3, beating MTSU at home and FIU on the road, and losing to WKU (by 3), at Jax State, and at Liberty. The Bulldogs still have a (slim) chance to make the CUSA CG, but the Blue Hens are a competitive team. LT wins on the road.
FIU @ Middle Tennessee- The Blue Raiders lead 14-5, winning 8 of the last 10 (since 2015), but the Panthers won 35-24 last year. However, FIU has only ever won once in Murfreesboro, in 2011. MTSU is 1-7/0-4, with a loss to an FCS team and a win at Nevada, while the Panthers are 3-5/1-3 with a win at WKU. This just may be the least interesting game of the weekend. FIU wins. I think. Who really knows? Or cares?
Jacksonville State @ UTEP- The Gamecocks have a 17-14 win over the Miners in 2023, their only prior meeting, but that was in Burgess-Snow Field at JSU Stadium. UTEP is 2-6/1-3, with their lone CUSA win at woeful SHS. Jax State is 5-3/4-0, but only 2-3 on the road (losses at UCF, Ga Southern, and USM). JSU wins big.
Charlotte @ East Carolina- The 49ers have won both matchups with the Pirates, winning 10-7 in 2023 in Greenville, and 55-24 last year at home. ECU is 5-3/3-1 with their only conference loss at Tulane by 7 points. Charlotte is 1-7/0-5 with no FBS wins. Pirates prevail.
Tulsa @ FAU- The Owls hold a 3-1 lead in this new series, winning in 2014, 2023, and 63-16 last year in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane got their lone victory in 2015 at home. FAU is 3-5/2-3 but have lost their last 2 games, allowing 42+ in each. Tulsa is 2-6/0-5, with only 2 of their losses by less than 14 points. Owls survive the Hurricane.
Texas A&M @ Missouri- The Aggies lead the series 10-7, winning the last 2 (since 2021), including 41-10 last year, but the Tigers have won 7 of the last 11 (since 2002), and 3 of the last 4 played in Columbia. TAMU is 8-0/5-0 with a relatively easy remaining schedule; a win here all but guarantees the Aggies a spot in the SEC Championship Game, and by extension, in the CFP. Mizzou is 6-2/2-2, losing to Alabama and at Vandy, and a loss here would eliminate them from the CFP, in all likelihood. Both teams had last week off to prepare. Aggies win, but the Tigers will put up a fight.
Oregon @ Iowa- I was surprised to learn that these teams have actually played 3 times before, and none were in a bowl game. The Hawkeyes got the 1st win, in 1949 in Iowa City, but the Ducks won the other 2: in 1989, also in Iowa City, and in 1994 in Eugene. OU is 7-1/4-1 with their only loss at home to Indiana (by 10 points), but their "signature" win is by 20 at Northwestern, as it took them 2 OTs to get by since-collapsed Penn State. Iowa is 6-2/4-1, also losing to Indiana at home (by 5 points), and they also have a narrow win over Penn State. These 2 teams (plus ODU) are the only ones to lose to the Hoosiers by less than 25 points (the Monarchs lost by 13 in the season opener). I may be crazy, but I'm going with the Hawkeyes at home to upset the Ducks.
Syracuse @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes have a 16-8 advantage in the series, winning 6 of the last 7, but the Orange won 42-38 last year in the final week, knocking the Canes out of the ACC CG. Miami will definitely want revenge for that! Syracuse also has a win in the 1961 Liberty Bowl, when it was played in Philadelphia before moving to Memphis. The Orange have lost 3 straight played in Miami, last winning there in 1997. The Canes are 6-2/2-2, dropping 2 of their last 3 to fall out of the ACC race. The Cuse was never in it, as they have been woeful on offense since starting QB Steve Angeli was injured and out for the year early in the season- they haven't scored more than 18 points in any of their last 5 games after scoring 26+ in each of their 1st 4. Miami wins.
Duke @ UConn- The Huskies won the 1st 2 games in this series, in 2004 and 2007, but the Blue Devils have won the last 2, in 2023 and 26-21 last year, as each team is 2-2 at home. Duke is 5-3, with early losses to Illinois and at Tulane, and a loss to GT; UConn is 6-3, with all 3 losses on the road, and each one in OT, to Syracuse, Delaware, and Rice, but they own a victory over Boston College. The Huskies will give them a run for their money, as this game could be as exciting as these schools playing basketball against each other, and maybe as many points, but the Blue Devils will prevail.
Kansas @ Arizona- The Jayhawks lead 3-2-1, but they haven't played since 1966. The tie occurred in their 1st meeting, a 0-0 affair on Halloween in 1936 (I bet that was an exciting game...). This game has been played in Tucson 4 times, so this will be the 5th time out of 7 meetings, as KU is 3-1 there. The Wildcats are 5-3/2-3 with losses to BYU, and at ISU and Houston, and wins over OSU and at Colorado last week. The Jayhawks are 5-4/3-3 with victories over WVU and OSU (last week) and at UCF, and losses to Cincinnati and on the road at Texas Tech and Kansas State. Flip a coin. Arizona wins at home.
Iowa State @ TCU- The Horned Frogs hold a 9-6 edge in the series, winning the last time this contest was played in Ft. Worth, but the Cyclones have won 4 of the last 5 (since 2019). ISU is 5-4/2-4 and on a 4-game slide, but 3 of those 4 losses were by 8 points or less. TCU is 6-2/3-2, winning their last 2, and are 4-0 at home and coming out of their bye week. The Cyclones are still dealing with multiple injuries on the defensive side, so Frogs win.
Auburn @ Vanderbilt- I was shocked to learn that this series is tied at 22-22-1, but it makes sense, as most of Vandy's wins came between 1894 and the 1955 Gator Bowl. In fact, they've only won 3 times since that bowl win- in 2008 and 2012 (both in Nashville) and 17-7 last year on the Plains. The Tigers won the 1st meeting, in 1893, and the tie occurred in 1912, and finished 7-7 in a game played in Birmingham. Three of the 1st 4 matchups were in Montgomery (the other was in Nashville), and after 2 in a row in Nashville (in 1905 and 1909), they played 9 of the next 12 in Birmingham (with Nashville interspersed) through 1929. They didn't actually play in Auburn until 1951(won by the War Eagles). After the '55 Gator Bowl, they didn't play again until 1978, whereupon the Plainsmen reeled off 13 consecutive victories through 2007. Anyway, AU just fired HC Hugh Freeze and replaced him with interim DJ Durkin, so this will be the 1st game post-Freeze. The Tigers are 4-5/1-5 and in danger of missing a bowl for the 2nd straight year, which would be their 1st back-to-back bowl-less seasons since 1998-99, and for the 3rd time in the last 4 seasons. The Commodores are 7-2/3-2, and fighting for their CFP lives. Dores win, but AU puts up a fight.
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State- The Owls and Aggies will be meeting for the very first time. NMSU is 3-5/1-4 with a win over SHS, but they are 3-1 at home with their only loss in Las Cruces to Mo State in OT. KSU is 6-2/4-0 and having a magical season, as their only 2 losses are to P4 teams Wake Forest (by 1) and Indiana, both on the road, and they are riding a 6-game winning streak. Hooty Hoo! Owls win again.
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina- This series is tied with each team at 4 wins apiece, but what is really odd about this series is that they have alternated wins, and the visitor has won each one! That means it is GSU's turn to win, but the Panthers have been truly awful this year at 1-7/0-4 and no FBS wins, but they did have a bye last week, and 2 of their last 4 losses have been by 7 points each. CCU is 5-3/4-1 and are a win in this game (and over Ga Southern and James Madison) from clinching the division. Chanticleers pull away in the 2nd half to win and break the pattern.
Washington @ Wisconsin- The Huskies have won all 4 matchups in this series, starting with the 1960 Rose Bowl and continuing through 1967 (Seattle), 1968 (Madison), and 1992 (Seattle again). The Badgers are having a miserable season, as they have lost 6 in a row, and have scored more than 17 points in a game only once- a 42-10 victory over MTSU of CUSA. In fact, they have only scored 7 points in their last 3 games combined, and only 41 points in their 6-game losing streak. Washington is 6-2/3-2, with losses to Ohio State and at Michigan (by almost identical scores), and they are 2-1 away from Husky Stadium. Both teams were off last week, and the Badgers just announced that HC Luke Fickell WILL be returning for next season. Huskies win.
Stanford @ North Carolina- The Cardinal and Tar Heels have played 3 times before, with UNC prevailing in 1997 in Chapel Hill, and Stanford winning in 1998 in Stanford, and in the 2016 Sun Bowl. The Heels are 3-5/1-3, finally getting a P4 and ACC win last week over Syracuse, but are only 1-3 at home. The Cardinal is 3-6/2-4 with wins over BC and FSU, but are 0-5 on the road. UNC wins to keep their (fading) bowl hopes alive.
Texas State @ Louisiana- The Bobcats have never defeated the Ragin' Cajuns in 11 tries, but the last 2 losses, in 2023 and 2024, have been by a combined 10 points, their only losses by single digits. UL is 3-6/2-3, with SBC wins over Marshall and at South Alabama, and losses to Southern Miss at home and JMU and Troy on the road. TSU is 3-5/0-4, as they are on a 4-game losing streak, but they were off last week. The Cajuns extend their lead in the series with another close win.
Air Force @ San Jose State- The Falcons hold a slim 5-3 lead in the series, but the Spartans have won 2 of the last 3, including 17-7 last year. The AFA is 2-6/1-4 with their only MWC victory over Wyoming, but 3 of their losses were by 3 points each. SJSU has only a slightly better record at 3-5/2-2 with wins over New Mexico and Hawaii at home, and losses to Wyoming and Utah State on the road, as they are 3-1 at home overall. Falcons win, because they can score points (30+ in 6 of 8 games), and the Spartans allow a lot of points (28+ allowed in 7 of 8 games).
Wake Forest @ Virginia- The Cavaliers hold a commanding 35-17 lead in this series, winning 31-30 last year, but the Demon Deacons have won 5 of the last 6 (since 2008). WF is 5-3/2-3, with ACC wins over Va Tech and SMU, and losses to NC State, GT, and FSU. However, they've won 3 of their last 4 overall. The Hoos are 8-1/5-0 and all alone at the top of the conference standings, but 4 of their ACC wins are by 8 points or less, and the 5th by 10 points due to a late pick-6. The Cardiac Cavaliers ride again! Wahoos win.
California @ Louisville- The Golden Bears are 5-4/2-3, and 2-2 on the road, but with victories over woeful Oregon State and hapless Boston College. The Cardinals are 7-1/4-1 with their only loss against ACC leader UVA, and they are 4-1 at home. UL wins big in this 1st ever meeting.
FSU @ Clemson- We can call this the ACC Disappointment Bowl, as the Tigers are 3-5/2-4 and the Seminoles are 4-4/1-4. The Noles lead the series 21-16, winning the last time this was played in Clemson in 2023, but the Tigers have won 8 of the last 9 (since 2015), including 29-13 last year. CU has lost 2 in a row, and their ACC wins were over UNC and BC (combined ACC record of 1-8), both on the road, as they are 0-3 in conference home games. FSU is coming off a rout over WF, which broke a 4-game losing streak, as they are 0-2 on the road. One of those streaks will have to end. Seminoles win the Misery Bowl.
LSU @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide have dominated this series, leading 57-27-5, winning the last 2 (42-13 last year), 4 of the last 5, and 12 of the last 14 (starting with the 2012 BCS Championship Game), but the Tigers have won 2 of the last 4 played in Tuscaloosa. This year, the Bayou Bengals are 5-3/2-3, and they will be playing their 1st contest under interim HC Frank Wilson, so expect a lot of energy early, but will it be enough? The Tide are 7-1/5-0 and on the verge of returning to the SEC CG for the 1st time since 2023. If they fail to make it, it will be the 1st time missing it in back-to-back years since 2010-2011. The Tide rolls.
Navy @ Notre Dame- Speaking of lopsided series, this is one of the more skewed ones, as the Fighting Irish lead 81-13-1, winning the last 7, including 51-14 last year. The Midshipmen are 7-1, suffering their 1st loss last week at UNT. The Irish are 6-2 and on a 6-game winning streak. Notre Dame wins again.
Florida @ Kentucky- In yet another uneven series, the Gators lead 54-20, including 48-20 last year, but the Wildcats have won 3 of the last 4 played on the field (their 2021 victory was vacated), and 4 of the last 7. UK is 3-5/1-5, achieving their 1st SEC win of the season at Auburn last week, but they haven't won an SEC home game since 2023- over Florida, no less. UF is 3-5/2-3, and 0-1 under interim HC Billy Gonzalez, and they are 0-4 away from The Swamp. Gators win, because they should win, as they have the more talented roster.
Nevada @ Utah State- The Wolf Pack have a 19-8 lead, but the Aggies have won 4 of the last 6 (since 2011), and the last 4 played in Logan. Nevada is 1-7/0-4 with no FBS wins, but 3 losses by 3 points or less. USU is 4-4/2-2, but have lost 3 of their last 4. However, the Aggies are 4-0 at home. Both teams had a bye last week. USU wins.
Nebraska @ UCLA- This series, which began in 1946, is tied at 7 wins apiece. The Bruins are 4-3 in games played in California, as the Cornhuskers have a victory in the 2015 Foster Farms Bowl in Santa Clara. UCLA, at 3-5/3-2 and coming out of their off week have won 3 of their last 4, losing at Indiana their last time out. NU is 6-3/3-3, with losses to Michigan and USC at home, and to Minnesota on the road. I think UCLA has momentum, despite their recent loss and bye week. The Bruins pull the upset at home.
UNLV @ Colorado State - The Rams hold a 17-7-1 lead in the series, winning 4 of the last 5 (since 2012), but the Rebels won in their last matchup, in 2023 in Las Vegas. UNLV is 6-2/2-2, dropping their last 2 at Boise State and to New Mexico last week. CSU is 2-6/1-3, and 0-1 under interim HC Tyson Summers, topping Fresno State at home a few weeks ago for their only Mountain West win. Rebels win.
Sam Houston @ Oregon State- The Bearkats (0-8) will fall to the Beavers (2-7) in Corvallis in this 1st ever meeting.
San Diego State @ Hawaii- The Aztecs lead this series 26-11-2, winning the last 5, including 27-24 last year, but the last 4 of those were by 7 points or less each. SDSU sits all alone at the top of the MWC at 7-1/4-0, and with Boise State next, they can't afford to lose this one if they hope to make the CFP. The Rainbow Warriors are 6-3/3-2 and headed for a bowl for the 1st time since 2021 (which was canceled). This will be a competitive game, with the Aztecs coming out on top.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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