College Football Preview Part V

Welcome back!

Starting July 19 and continuing each weekday through August 6, I will preview all 130 FBS teams in order from #130 to #1.  These are my own Power Rankings, using a formula I devised.  This is where the teams stand now, and not their predicted finish.  I will update these Power Rankings each Tuesday throughout the season based on the results that week.

Beginning August 9 and continuing through August 20, I will preview each conference, one per weekday, with predicted order of finish, predicted division and conference champions, key games, etc. 

Below, you will not find in-depth previews- there are plenty of places to find that kind of preview.  Instead, you will find stats and info that I feel are interesting.  As a reader, I assume that you are a little more than a casual fan, which means you understand basic abbreviations such as TO for turnover, TFL for tackles for loss, etc.  None of the abbreviations I use are made up by me; all are pretty standard across college football.  However, if I use one you're not sure about, feel free to ask in the comments. I do want to point out a few oddities, for lack of a better word, about these previews.

First, the numbers for returning starters can be disputed, and are likely wrong, as they can change daily, based on the source, injuries, transfers, etc.  Take these with a grain of salt, but they do give you a ballpark figure of the experience returning.  Also, the NCAA granted everyone an extra year of eligibility, and MANY students took advantage of this, so there are lots of teams with 16-20 starters returning, much more than usual. 

Second, the pandemic created unusual schedules for the 2020 season.  Alabama played 13 games. Ohio and Miami, Ohio played only 3 games each.  All the other teams played anywhere from 4-12 games. Except for New Mexico State, Old Dominion, and UConn, who didn't play any games, which means finishing 127th in any stat is last place.

Lastly, the SEC, Big Ten, PAC 12, and MAC played conference only schedules.  Notre Dame played as part of the ACC.  

What all this means is that you have to look deeper when comparing stats.  For those playing conference only schedules, where they placed in the conference may be more meaningful than where they placed nationally, as their schedule was probably tougher.  Teams that played fewer games could have their stats skewed by one horrendous (or one tremendous) statistical game. In other words, more so than in past years, we aren't comparing apples to apples here.  However, I included them because I find stats fascinating, and because I think my readers are intelligent enough to draw their own conclusions.

And now, on with the previews!

(Note: record listed is from 2020, not their projected record)

90 Utah State Aggies (1-5)

Coach: Blake Anderson (8^th overall/1^st here)

3-year record/rank: 19-13/.5938/T46th

6-year record/rank: 34-36/.4857/T79th

10-year record/rank: 71-53/.5726/50th

A good season means… a return to bowl eligibility, which can happen with a 4-4 MWC record and a 2-2 OOC result.  The OOC is manageable- @Washington State, vs FCS North Dakota, vs BYU, @New Mexico State, so 2-2 seems reasonable.  The crossover games are vs. Hawaii, @SJSU, and @New Mexico.

A disappointing season means… the offense underachieves and doesn’t improve as much as expected, and the defense continues to backslide, and this results in less than 6 wins.

Notes: Last league title: 2013; Last bowl: 2019 Frisco Bowl; P Stephen Kotsanlee (40.7-yd avg) and K Connor Coles (3-4 FGs) return, and the return game has TD potential; offense gained 10+ yds on only 13.3% of plays (125^th FBS, worst in MWC); 11 starters return (5 Off, 6 Def); Offense: Scoring 15.5 ppg-124^th/12^th MWC, Rushing 140.0 ypg- 88^th/7^th, Passing 135.8 ypg- 120^th/11^th, Total 275.8 ypg- 123^rd/12^th; Defense: Scoring 35.2 ppg- 101^st/10^th, Rushing 224.7 ypg- 114^th/11^th, Passing 260.7 ypg- 103^rd/11^th, Total 485.3 ypg- 120^th/12^th; TO Margin -1.00/game- 117^th/12^th; this is the 4^th straight season the Aggies will have new offensive, defensive, AND special teams coordinators, but at least the team won’t have to learn a new name for the head coach.

89 Temple Owls (1-6)

Coach: Rod Carey (9^th overall/3^rd here)

3-year record/rank: 17-16/.5152/70th

6-year record/rank: 44-30/.5946/42nd

10-year record/rank: 65-57/.5328/60th

A good season means… a 2-2 OOC record at worst- @Rutgers, @Akron, vs Boston College, vs FCS Wagner- and 3 or 4 wins in the AAC, which could net them bowl eligibility, but that may be a stretch.

A disappointing season means… 4 wins or less, mostly by only going 2-6 (or worse) in the AAC.

Notes: Last league title: 2016; Last bowl: 2019 Military Bowl; UGA transfer D’Wan Mathis is the likely starter at QB; the Owls are on a 5-game losing streak; P Adam Berry (44-yd avg) and K Rory Bell (5-5, but with a long of 30 yds) return; 2020 was 1^st losing season since 2013; 10 starters return (5 Off, 5 Def); Offense: Scoring 19.9 ppg- 113^th/10^th AAC, Rushing 140.3 ypg, 87^th/11^th, Passing 208.0 ypg- 84^th/9^th, Total 348.3 ypg- 100^th/10^th; Defense: Scoring 37.1 ppg- 110^th/10^th, Rushing 208.6 ypg- 103^rd/10^th, Passing 224.4 ypg- 53^rd/4^th, Total 433.0 ypg- 87^th/7^th; TO Margin -0.29/game- 83^rd/8^th.

 

88 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-7)

Coach: Tyson Helton (3^rd overall/3^rd here)

3-year record/rank: 17-20/.4595/84th

6-year record/rank: 46-32/.5897/44th

10-year record/rank: 76-52/.5938/43rd

A good season means… their offense improves significantly while their defense maintains its high level of play, leading to the Hilltoppers challenging for a CUSA East title.

A disappointing season means… going just 4-4 in CUSA (or worse), resulting in a losing overall record, as their OOC schedule is tough- vs FCS UT Martin, @Army, vs Indiana, @Michigan State.

Notes: Last league title: 2016; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2018; P John Haggerty III (45.7-yd avg) returns, as does K Brayden Narveson (13-14 FGs); WKU gained 20+ yds on just 1.6% of offensive plays last year (worst in CUSA); 9 starters return (5 Off, 4 Def); Offense: Scoring 19.0 ppg- 114^th/12^th CUSA, Rushing 126.0 ypg- 102^nd/11^th, Passing 164.3 ypg- 111^th/11^th, Total 290.3 ypg- 120^th/12^th; Defense: Scoring 25.3 ppg- 40^th/5^th, Rushing 171.3 ypg- 72^nd/7^th, Passing 177.3 ypg- 8^th/2^nd, Total 348.7 ypg- 28^th/5^th; TO Margin -0.42/game- 94^th/11^th.

 

87 San Jose State Spartans (7-1)

Coach: Brent Brennan (5^th overall/5^th here)

3-year record/rank: 13-19/.4063/96th

6-year record/rank: 25-45/.3571/109th

10-year record/rank: 50-69/.4202/T98th

A good season means… a repeat West division championship, and perhaps a repeat conference championship, as well.  They do not face Boise St in the regular season- their crossover games are @Colo St, @UNLV, and Wyoming- so if they win their division games (they do have to travel to Nevada, though SDSU is at home), they have a good chance to finish 7-1 or 8-0 in the MWC.  They have a good shot at going 3-1 in their OOC games- vs FCS Southern Utah, @USC, @Western Michigan, vs New Mexico State- so barring upsets, they could finish with 9 or 10 wins in the regular season.

A disappointing season means… last season was a mirage, and they fall back into mediocrity, finishing with only 5 to 7 wins.

Notes: Last league title: 2020; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; defense gave up just 7.8 pts/game in the 2^nd half of games; P Elijah Fischer (39.6-yd avg, only 4 returned punts) and K Matt Mercurio (9-11 FGs, long of 36 yds) return; the Spartans will be trying for their 1^st back-to-back winning seasons since 1991 and ‘92, and their 1^st back-to-back bowl trips since 1986 and ’87; SJSU did not lose any offensive fumbles last year (recovered all 5); 20 starters return (9 Off, 11 Def); Offense: Scoring 28.6 ppg- 62^nd/4^th MWC, Rushing 132.5 ypg- 94^th/8^th, Passing 298.4 ypg- 19^th/3^rd, Total 430.9 ypg- 36^th/3^rd; Defense: Scoring 19.9 ppg- 15^th/3^rd, Rushing 120.2 ypg- 20^th/3^rd, Passing 225.9 ypg- 57^th/7^th, Total 346.1 ypg- 26^th/4^th; TO Margin +0.25/game- 47^th/3^rd; offense was only 50% in TD conversion in the red zone (111^th FBS); SJSU has won 7 straight regular season games.

 

86 Troy Trojans (5-6)

Coach: Chip Lindsey (3^rd overall/3^rd here)

3-year record/rank: 20-16/.5556/T57th

6-year record/rank: 45-29/.6081/T38th

10-year record/rank: 62-60/.5082/66th

A good season means… 6 wins or more and a return to bowl eligibility.  A better season would be challenging for a division title.  6 wins are possible with their schedule, and with an upset or two…

A disappointing season means… another 5-win season, or worse, which could put HC Lindsey on the hot seat.  The Trojans need to start winning the close games.

Notes: Last league title: 2017; Last bowl: 2018 Dollar General Bowl; both P and K will be new; 4 of 6 losses were by 7 pts or less (a combined 16 pts); defense scored 4 TDs- 2 on INTs, 2 on fumble returns- which led the FBS (tied); 20 starters return (11 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 27.4 ppg- 70^th/7^th SBC, Rushing 102.6 ypg- 117^th/9^th, Passing 290.2 ypg- 21^st/2^nd, Total 392.8 ypg- 65^th/6^th; Defense: Scoring 25.7 ppg- 41^st/5^th, Rushing 166.6 ypg- 65^th/6^th, Passing 238.5 ypg- 69^th/6^th, Total 405.1 ypg- 61^st/5^th; TO Margin -0.36/game- 91^st/8^th.

 

85 Purdue Boilermakers (2-4)

Coach: Jeff Brohm (8^th overall/5^th here)

3-year record/rank: 12-19/.3871/100th

6-year record/rank: 24-44/.3529/110th

10-year record/rank: 41-77/.3475/113th

A good season means… a return to bowl eligibility and a defeat of rival Indiana, perhaps bolstered by a 4-1 start (vs Oregon State, @UConn, @Notre Dame, vs Illinois, vs Minnesota).

A disappointing season means… a 3^rd straight losing season, a 2^nd straight loss to Indiana (they didn’t play last year), and HC Brohm on the hot seat.

Notes: Last league title: 2000 Co-champs; Last bowl: 2018 Music City Bowl; the Boilermakers are on a 4-game losing streak, but all 4 losses were by 10 points or less (3 by 7 or less); special teams could be completely revamped, as both P and K could be new, along with several changes in coverage and return teams; offense had only 5.8% explosive play rate (123^rd FBS, worst in Big Ten); defense had a 2.5% sack rate (125^th FBS, last in Big Ten); 14 starters return (7 Off, 7 Def); Offense: 27.2 ppg- 73^rd/7^th Big Ten, Rushing 81.5 ypg- 124^th/14^th, Passing 309.0 ypg- 16^th/1^st, Total 390.5 ypg- 78^th/6^th; Defense: Scoring 29.8 ppg- 67^th/8^th, Rushing 144.8 ypg- 44^th/6^th, Passing 254.2 ypg- 94^th/12^th, Total 399.0 ypg- 56^th/8^th; TO Margin +0.17/game- 54^th/7^th.

 

84 Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-7)

Coach: Butch Jones (12^th overall/1^st here)

3-year record/rank: 20-17/.5405/65th

6-year record/rank: 44-31/.5867/45th

10-year record/rank: 79-48/.6220/33rd

A good season means… a return to the top half of the SBC West, and a challenge for the division title and a return to bowl eligibility, but it will take an upset or 2.

A disappointing season means… never recovering from a poor 1-6 start (their 1^st 7 games are brutal- vs Central Arkansas, vs Memphis, @Washington, @Tulsa, @Ga Southern, vs Coastal Carolina, vs Louisiana) and stumbling to a 4-8 (or worse) finish.

Notes: Last league title: 2015 Co-champs; Last bowl: 2019 Camellia Bowl; P Ryan Hanson (40.6-yd avg) and K Blake Grupe (11-18 FGs) return; the Red Wolves had their 1^st losing season since 2010; 5.2% of offensive plays went for 30+ yds (3^rd FBS, best in SBC); 14 starters return (6 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 32.9 ppg- 35^th/5^th SBC, Rushing 125.4 ypg- 103^rd/7^th, Passing 364.4 ypg- 2^nd/1^st, Total 489.7 ypg- 14^th/1^st; Defense: Scoring 37.2 ppg- 111^th/8^th, Rushing 156.1 ypg- 53^rd/5^th, Passing 314.0 ypg- 126^th/10^th, Total 470.1 ypg- 115^th/9^th; TO Margin -0.36/game- 91^st/8^th; QB Layne Hatcher returns, but faces a challenge from FSU transfer James Blackman; though they lost 6 of their last 7 games, their last 3 losses were each by 7 pts or less; ASU has had 16 straight winnings seasons at home.

 

83 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (6-3)

Coach: Philip Montgomery (7^th overall/7^th here)

3-year record/rank: 13-20/.3939/97th

6-year record/rank: 31-40/.4367/91st

10-year record/rank: 55-67/.4508/T88th

A good season means… their offense finds a successful QB and the defense maintains its success from 2020, and the team challenges for a 2^nd straight AAC title game berth. 

A disappointing season means… the Golden Hurricane never recover from their 2-game stretch on the road against Oklahoma State and Ohio State back-to-back, and stumble to only 6 or 7 wins.

Notes: Last league title: 2012 CUSA; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2019; P Lachlan Wilson (42.9-yd avg) returns, as does K Zack Long (12-15 FGs); 19 starters return (9 Off, 10 Def); Offense: Scoring 27.1 ppg- 74^th/8^th AAC, Rushing 157.7 ypg- 70^th/7^th, Passing 252.8 ypg- 42^nd/5^th, Total 410.4 ypg- 52^nd/5^th; Defense: Scoring 21.6 ppg- 27^th/2^nd, Rushing 143.4 ypg- 43^rd/3^rd, Passing 189.6 ypg- 18^th/2^nd, Total 333.0 ypg- 19^th/2^nd; TO Margin -0.22/game- 78^th/7^th.

 

82 Buffalo Bulls (6-1)

Coach: Maurice Linguist (1^st overall/1^st here)

3-year record/rank: 24-10/.7059/18th

6-year record/rank: 37-33/.5286/61st

10-year record/rank: 57-61/.4831/74th

A good season means… another MAC East championship, but that may be asking a bit much with an entirely new coaching staff coming on board after spring practice.

A disappointing season means… dropping back to 6 or less wins and a bottom half of the division finish as the team adjusts to the new staff.

Notes: Last league title: 2008; Last time didn’t go bowling: 2017; the Bulls are on a 7-game regular season winning streak, which should stretch to at least 8, as they open against FCS Wagner before travelling to Nebraska; P Evan Finegan (38.8-yd avg) and K Alex McNulty (1-4 FGs) both return; UB leads the MAC with 30 wins over the last 4 seasons; 14 starters return (5 Off, 9 Def); Offense: Scoring 43.4 ppg- 5^th/2^nd MAC, Rushing 287.4 ypg- 2^nd/1^st, Passing 191.0 ypg- 102^nd/9^th, Total 478.4 ypg- 18^th/4^th; Defense: Scoring 21.9 ppg- 30^th/2^nd, Rushing 157.4 ypg- 57^th/6^th, Passing 201.6 ypg- 27^th/4^th, Total 359.0 ypg- 35^th/1^st; TO Margin +0.57/game- 27^th/4^th; Returner Ron Cook, Jr averaged 25.2 yds per KOR and 9.1 yds per PR; offense averaged 6.7 ypc; offense averaged 51.8 ppg during the regular season.

 

81 Navy Midshipmen (3-7)

Coach: Ken Niumatalolo 14^th overall/14^th here)

3-year record/rank: 17-19/.4722/T78th

6-year record/rank: 44-32/.5789/T47th

10-year record/rank: 74-53/.5827/T44th

A good season means… a bounce back to a winning season, but the schedule is tough!

A disappointing season means… a repeat of their 3 wins from 2020, or maybe they can pull out 4 or 5 with an upset or 2, as it’s possible they could start 2-7 or worse- vs Marshall, vs Air Force, @Houston, vs UCF, vs SMU, @Memphis, vs Cincinnati, @Tulsa, @Notre Dame- before finishing the season vs ECU, @Temple, then vs Army in New Jersey.

Notes: Last league title: none; Last bowl: 2019 Liberty Bowl; the Midshipmen are on a 5-game losing streak; Ps Ben Fee (33.4-yd avg on 9 punts) and Daniel Davies (37.1-yd avg on 44 punts) combined to average only 36.5 yds/punt, but K Bijan Nichols (6-10 FGs, 16-18 XPs) enters his 3^rd season with 3 game-winning FGs; Navy’s 2021 schedule includes 8 teams that qualified for a bowl in 2020; offense gained 10+ yds on only 13.2% of plays (last in AAC); 12 starters return (4 Off, 8 Def); Offense: Scoring 16.6 ppg- 121^st/11^th AAC, Rushing 177.6 ypg- 52^nd/4^th, Passing 97.4 ypg- 125^th/11^th, Total 275.0 ypg- 124^th/11^th; Defense: Scoring 30.3 ppg- 72^nd/5^th, Rushing 204.7 ypg- 100^th/9^th, Passing 180.8 ypg- 10^th/1^st, Total 385.5 ypg- 49^th/3^rd; TO Margin -0.20/game- 74^th/6^th.

 

Come back Monday as I continue my countdown to #1.  And check out my previous previews.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!