Conference Previews Part XXI

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Welcome Back!

Today I continue my conference previews. These previews will attempt to predict how each conference finishes, but realize that doing so is extremely difficult, especially since no conference has a balanced schedule. Also, whatever the conferences come up with in the form of tiebreakers will make a huge difference, as all but the Sun Belt have done away with divisions. In addition, these predictions aren't my personal opinion; they are the result of the formula/model/statistical analysis/whatever. I will sometimes mention my thoughts in the narratives below the predictions.

The list of records for 3-years, 6-years, and 10 years are conference records only, and do not include any results for the conference championship games. You will notice that the teams haven't all played the same number of games, especially when considering they should have. This is because that teams played a varied number of games in 2020, and that sometimes games get cancelled (see Virginia in 2022, for example). In the case of teams switching conferences, I counted the record from their previous conference. Independent teams joining a conference, and FCS teams moving up, are counted the same- that means they enter with 0-0 records.

In case you are interested, I get all of my information from various sources. I use the 3 main preview magazines (Phil Steele, Lindy's, and Athlon), but I also use many different websites, including (but not limited to): Google, Winsipedia, sports-reference.com, ESPN.com, TeamRankings.com, NCAA.com, and, of course, individual school websites.

I don't have a staff- it's just me- so all of the research is my own from these various sources (it doesn't help when they contradict each other...), so any mistakes are mine. I also don't have an editor/proofreader, so you are likely to find several (many? I hope not) typos, such as commas where periods should be (or vice versa), a misspelled or missing word, doubled words ("the the" in the middle of a sentence, for example), etc. 

I would like to invite you to fill out the fan survey in one of my previous blogs. It's titled, curiously enough, "College Football Fan Survey", so it shouldn't be difficult to find.

Finally, feel free to leave a comment. Interacting is much of the fun! Of course, if you know me personally, feel free to just text. I'll get that a lot quicker.

So, on with the previews! Today I preview the Pac 12 and Independents!


Pac 12


3-Year History


OSU 16-11/.593/1st

WSU 12-15/.444/2nd


6-Year History


WSU 23-36/.469/1st

OSU 23-29/.442/2nd


10-Year History


WSU 44-41/.518/1st

OSU 28-60/.318/2nd


Predicted Finish:



  1. Oregon State

  2. Washington State


Conference Champion:  Oregon State


Key Conference Games:


Nov 23 WSU @ OSU


Key Non-conference Games:


Sep 7 Texas Tech @ WSU

Sep 14 Oregon @ OSU, WSU @ Washington

Sep 21 Purdue @ OSU

Sep 28 WSU @ Boise St

Oct 12 WSU @ Fresno St

Oct 19 UNLV @ OSU

Oct 26 OSU @ Cal

Nov 9 Utah St @ WSU

Nov 16 OSU @ Air Force

Nov 30 OSU @ Boise St


Chances to make the playoff: Neither team has a good enough strength of schedule to get in with 2+ losses, but a win over Oregon coupled with going 10-1 or 11-0 in other games could be enough to get the Beavers in. 


Don’t be surprised if… everyone mostly ignores what remains of the Pac 12


I’m not convinced… these 2 teams will completely implode, but I do think they will probably each lose 1 or 2 games to the MWC teams on their schedule.


Independents


3-Year History


Notre Dame 30-9/.769/1st

UConn 10-27/.270/2nd 

UMass 5-31/.139/3rd


6-Year History


Notre Dame 63-14/.818/1st

UMass 10-54/.156/2nd

UConn N/A



10-Year History


Notre Dame 95-33/.727/1st

UMass 22-90/.196/2nd

UConn N/A 



Predicted Finish:


  1. Notre Dame

  2. UConn

  3. UMass


Conference Champion: N/A

Key Conference Games: N/A


Key Non-conference Games:


Aug 31 ND @ Texas A&M, UConn @ Maryland

Sep 14 ND @ Purdue, UConn @ Duke

Sep 28 Louisville @ ND

Oct 12 Stanford @ ND, Missouri @ UMass

Oct 19 ND vs Ga Tech (Atlanta), Wake Forest @ UConn

Oct 26 ND vs Navy (East Rutherford, NJ)

Nov 2 UMass @ Miss State

Nov 9 FSU @ ND

Nov 16 Virginia @ ND

Nov 23 ND vs Army (Bronx), UConn @ Syracuse, UMass @ Georgia

Nov 30 ND @ USC, UConn @ UMass


Chances to make the playoff: Notre Dame has the only realistic chance from this group of making the CFP. With their schedule, if they win 7 of their 8 games against P4 opponents (and win the others of course), then they should be in. They could still make it with 2 losses, but that would be much more iffy. Their toughest games look to be TAMU and USC on the road, and FSU at home.


Don’t be surprised if… the Irish go undefeated, as there seems to be a “cupcake” or off week before every big game


I’m not convinced… UMass can even reach their 3 wins from last year, even though they play 2 FCS teams.



Come back tomorrow as I continue my conference previews!


Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!  

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