Paul's Picks Week 2
Welcome Back!
Last week was a very good week as I finished with an 84-12 record, a winning percentage of 87.5%. It would have been much better if I hadn't missed 3 of the last 4! I expected to do well last week because of all the FBS vs FCS games, and there are plenty more this week, though not as many. There are 78 games in total this week, so I'm sure my percentage will be coming down.
Overall, I am 87-13, a percentage I can figure out in my head as 87%. There is absolutely no way I can maintain that, so I am still keeping my "pie-in-the-sky" goal at 80%, and my "realistic" goal at 75%.
So... on with the picks!
Friday, September 6
Western Illinois @ Indiana- The Hoosiers defeated the Leathernecks 27-17 back in 2012. The margin of victory in this one will be higher. IU wins.
BYU @ SMU- The Cougars lead the Mustangs 4-0 in this series, including wins in the 1980 Holiday Bowl (46-45 in one of the greatest comebacks in bowl history) and in the 2022 New Mexico Bowl (24-23). The other 2 wins were home-and-home in 1996 and 1997, with BYU winning 31-3 in Provo and 19-16 in Dallas, so 3 of the 4 games were decided by a total of 4 points. SMU is one of only 2 FBS teams to be 2-0 (GT is the other), and they'll be the 1st to get to 3-0. SMU wins.
Duke @ Northwestern- These teams have been playing in 2-8 game bursts sine 1985, with the Blue Devils leading 13-10, including the last 5 in a row (since 2017). They also won the 1st 6 contests they played, from 1985-1990. In between, the Wildcats won 10 of 12, from 1996-2016. Duke is 7-4 in this series in games played in Evanston. Neither team was very impressive last week. Flip a coin and go with the home team. NW wins a close one and breaks Duke's winning streak.
Saturday, September 7
Texas @ Michigan- This is probably the game of the day, as the Longhorns won the only previous matchup in the 2005 Rose Bowl by a score of 38-37. UT looked impressive last week in dispatching Colorado State, while UM looked disjointed against Fresno State. Texas will win because they have the better QB, but Michigan's defense will keep it close until the end.
Bowling Green @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions are 2-0 against the Falcons, winning 45-19 in 1987 and 48-3 in 1998. Like this one will be, those were played in State College, PA. PSU wins over BGSU, and the score will be similar to the 1st 2 meetings.
Arkansas @ Oklahoma State- The Razorbacks lead the series 30-15-1, winning the last 5, but they haven't met since 1980. These teams 1st played in 1912, and after playing for 4 consecutive years, played every year from 1921-30, 1943-46, and 1950-1980 (minus 1954, 1958, and 1961); they also played in 1938. The Hogs destroyed their FCS foe in Week 1 while the Pokes struggled with theirs, albeit the 2023 FCS champions. Call it a feeling, but I think the Piggies are better than expected, and the Cowboys are not as good. UA wins a close one.
Kansas State @ Tulane- The Green Wave have won both previous meetings, 20-16 in 1988 in New Orleans and 17-10 in 2022 in Manhattan. Each team routed an inferior opponent last week, and Tulane would benefit from a win about as much as a loss would hurt the Wildcats. KSU wins a close one as the Waves are still adjusting to their new HC.
Rhode Island @ Minnesota- Surprisingly, the Golden Gophers have never played the Rams, despite their proximity (that's sarcasm, in case you missed it). Minnesota wins big.
Akron @ Rutgers- In 1990, the Scarlet Knights defeated the Zips 20-17 in Piscataway, and that remains the only meeting between these teams. Until now. Rutgers wins easily, but I'm hoping to see some improvement in the Akron offense.
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse- The Yellow Jackets lead the series 4-1, with all games being played since 2001. This includes a victory in the Champs Sports Bowl in 2004, and a Syracuse win in 2020 in the only other game played in the JMA Wireless Dome (formerly the Carrier Dome). HC Fran Brown will have the Orange playing better soon, but the Jackets are playing better right now. GT wins to be one of the 1st teams to 3-0.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati- The Panthers lead the series 8-5, but the Bearcats have won the last 3, including 27-21 last year, and 5 of the last 6 (since 2008). I think Cincy is the better team this year, as well, as I have very low expectations for Pitt. Bearcats win.
Merrimack @ UConn- The Huskies will get their 1st win in the 2024 season with a victory over the Warriors in this 1st time meeting.
Troy @ Memphis- The Tigers lead the series 4-1, winning the last 4, but all the games were played between 1937-1941, so I'm pretty sure that has no bearing on this game. This will be the 4th time they will have played in Memphis, with the other 2 in Dothan and Montgomery. The Trojans struggled in a loss to what may turn out to be a decent Nevada team, but Memphis is expected to challenge for the AAC crown. Tigers win.
Army @ FAU- This will be the 1st game as part of the AAC for the Black Knights, their 1st game as part of any conference since they were in CUSA from 1998-2004 (went a combined 9-41 in conference games), and their 1st time ever facing the Owls. FAU hasn't fared well against Navy and Air Force, going a combined 1-3 against those teams (that run a similar offense to Army), but they are at least familiar with the option offense. Army will be hyped to win this and prove they belong in the AAC. Black Knights win.
McNeese @ Texas A&M- The Aggies defeated the Cowboys 38-24 in 2001 in their only prior meeting, and TAMU will be looking to work out some frustrations from their opening loss. Aggies win big.
Tennessee Tech @ Georgia- The Bulldogs are 2-0 all-time against the Golden Eagles and will be looking to play a lot of backups in the 2nd half of this game. Dawgs win easily.
Missouri State @ Ball State- The Cardinals are the only FBS team that hasn't played a game yet, and they'll play their first one against the Bears, who they've never played before. BSU wins.
St. Francis (PA) @ Kent State- The Golden Flashes have never met the Red Flash on the gridiron before, but I expect a lot of flashing going on. No, not that kind. KSU wins.
Utah Tech @ UNLV- The Rebels have never had the pleasure of playing the Trailblazers before, but as long as they don't have a letdown from their big win last week over Houston, they'll look forward to the next time. UNLV wins.
Northern Illinois @ Notre Dame- The Fighting Irish and the Huskies have never met, but that won't stop the Irish from dominating this game. However, should they suffer a letdown and/or take NIU lightly, they could be in trouble. ND wins.
Baylor @ Utah- This is the return trip for the Bears after they lost to the Utes 20-13 last season in Waco, their only meeting thus far. Both teams easily defeated FCS teams last week, and though they are now in the same conference, this game does not count in the standings (it's considered an OOC game). Baylor has been trending downward the last couple of years while Utah has done well for the last decade or so. Utes win at home.
Iowa State @ Iowa- The Hawkeyes lead 47-23 in a series that began in 1894, and they've won 7 of the last 8 meetings, including 20-13 last year, but the Cyclones won 10-7 in 2022, the last time it was played in Iowa City. The teams played regularly following the 1st contest through 1934, then after a 43-year hiatus, have played every year since 1977 (minus the 2020 pandemic year). ISU downed North Dakota 21-3 last week while Iowa beat Illinois State 40-0, scoring their most points since beating Western Michigan 41-10 early last year, and have held 12 of their last 15 opponents (and 21 of their last 28) to 16 points or less. As usual, this should be a fantastic game (last 6 decided by 10 points or less), but I'm going with the slight upset. ISU wins.
California @ Auburn- The Tigers defeated the Golden Bears 14-10 last year in Berkeley, and will do so again this year in their 2nd meeting on the Plains. War Eagles win.
South Carolina @ Kentucky- These 2 teams have the privilege of playing the 1st SEC game of the season! The Gamecocks lead the series 20-14-1, winning the last 2, but the Wildcats have won 7 of the last 10. The teams played 3 times before SC joined the SEC in 1992: in 1937, the Wildcats won in Lexington; in 1978, they tied in Columbia; in 1981, SC won in Lexington. They've played every year since 1992, but that could change as soon as next year due to the SEC dropping divisions. The Gamecocks really struggled to put away ODU last week while the Wildcats rolled over Southern Miss. Kentucky wins.
Michigan State @ Maryland- The Spartans lead the series 10-4, but the Terrapins have won the last 2 by a combined score of 58-22, and are 2-2 in College Park since joining the Big Ten (4 losses and 1 win were from 1944-1950). MSU eked past FAU last week while the Terps were destroying UConn. Maryland has a chance to be 6-0 when they host USC in mid-October, and I think they get there. Terps win.
Eastern Michigan @ Washington- These teams will be meeting between the goalposts for the 1st time ever, and though the Eagles own two P4 wins in the last 5 years, they won't be able to get past the Huskies. UW wins.
South Dakota @ Wisconsin- The Badgers lead the series over the Coyotes with 2 wins to none, winning in 1975 and 2011. They'll win again. UW in a rout.
UMass @ Toledo- This is the 2nd of 3 straight (and 5 overall) games against the MAC for the Minuteman, who will be joining that conference next year. The Rockets lost the 1st time they met, in 1976, but have won the 7 matchups since, from 1983 to each of the last 3 years. Toledo wins again.
Duquesne @ Boston College- The Eagles are coming off an upset of FSU, so as long as they don't forget about the Dukes while they are worrying about playing at Missouri next week, they should be fine. BC wins this 1st ever meeting.
Jacksonville State @ Louisville- The Cardinals crushed their FCS competition last week while the Gamecocks were losing to CCU. This is a tough opening stretch for JSU. UL wins this 1st ever matchup between these 2 schools.
Charlotte @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels and 49ers have never clashed on the gridiron before. Charlotte got blasted by JMU last week as UNC was slipping by Minnesota. Since the Heels played on a Thursday last week, they've had longer to prepare. But they would win if they had played yesterday. UNC wins.
Idaho @ Wyoming- The Cowboys had a disappointing start to their season, losing by 41 points to Arizona State. The Vandals, on the other hand, played Oregon close, staying within single digits much of the game before finally losing by 10. Idaho won the 1st time these teams played- in 1921- but Wyoming has won the 7 played between 1950 and 2019. Expect a close game, but the Cowboys get their 1st win of the 2024 season.
Temple @ Navy- This series is tied at 9-9, including a Temple win in the 2016 AAC Championship Game. The Midshipmen have won 3 of the last 4 played, but the Owls won 32-18 last year, and are 5-6 in games played in Annapolis. This will be a close game, but Navy wins at home.
UTSA @ Texas State- Both of these teams are expected to challenge for a title in their respective conferences, so winning these OOC games are important, especially if the decision on the G5 spot comes down to these (or similar) 2 teams. The Roadrunners have won all 5 games in this series, with all having been played since 2012, including a 20-13 win last year in San Antonio. The Bobcats had to strive to get past FCS Lamar, and that doesn't bode well for the rest of their schedule, as you would think a team with 18 returning starters would be able to handle an FCS team. However, UTSA didn't exactly dominate new FBS member Kennesaw State, who was playing their 1st game ever as a member of CUSA. This should be a good game, and could go either way, but I have a little more confidence in the Roadrunners. Meep! Meep! UTSA wins.
Middle Tennessee @ Ole Miss- The Rebels destroyed the Blue Raiders 45-17! Back in 2001. In their only other meeting. The same will happen this time, too. Ole Miss wins.
Marshall @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies lead the series 11-3, but the Thundering Herd won 24-17 last year. While Marshall has never won in Blacksburg (they are 0-7 there, with 3 losses also in Bluefield, WV), they have played VT close on several occasions. The teams have played sporadically- 1913 and 1914, 1939 and 1940, 1951-53, and 7 times since 2002. The Gobblers lost to Vandy last week, but I think they'll rebound and get revenge on the Herd for their loss last year. VT wins.
Florida A&M @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes lead the series over the Rattlers 2-0, with a combined score of 111-10. The games were played in 2012 and 2014. Miami wins.
Albany @ West Virginia- The Mountaineers will win this 1st ever meeting with the Great Danes.
Central Michigan @ FIU- The Chippewas defeated the Panthers 31-27 back in 2021 in Mount Pleasant, and FIU will be hoping to return the favor in Miami. These are 2 evenly matched teams (in my opinion), so I'm going with the home team. FIU wins.
Gardner-Webb @ James Madison- The Dukes have never met the Runnin' Bulldogs, but I expect JMU to run G-W right off the field. JMU wins.
East Carolina @ ODU- The Pirates lead the series 7-3-1 over the Monarchs, winning the last 5, only 4 of which occurred after 1940 (from 2013-2022). Their 1st meeting was a 0-0 tie in 1934, and they played every year through 1940. While ODU lost 24-19 last week, they gave South Carolina all they could handle. ECU opened up the season by smashing an FCS team. These are 2 more evenly matched teams, but ECU wins, as they need this one just a bit more.
South Alabama @ Ohio- You'll be shocked- shocked I say!- to learn that these teams have never played before in football. Both teams started the season with a loss, with the Jaguars losing by 14 to UNT at home and the Bobcats losing by 16 at Syracuse. I'll take Ohio at home.
Sam Houston @ UCF- In yet another 1st time matchup, the Knights will turn out the lights on the Bearkats.
USF @ Alabama- The Bulls played the Crimson Tide tough last year in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, almost pulling the upset, but this is in Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, where the Tide has lost once in the last 4 years, and only twice in the last 8 years. This will be the 3rd time they have played, joining the 2003 game in Birmingham. The Tide rolls.
Buffalo @ Missouri- Way back in 2008, the Tigers defeated the Bulls 42-21 in Columbia. This game will be similar. Mizzou wins.
Kansas @ Illinois- The Jayhawks and Fighting Illini have each won 3 games in this series, but only last year's game, a 34-23 Kansas victory, has been played this century. In fact, that was their 1st meeting since 1968, which was their 1st since 1929. The other 3 were in 1892, 1916, and 1917. Both teams are 1-0 with impressive wins over FCS teams, but I'll take the one that was 9-4 last year over the team that was 5-7. KU wins.
Samford @ Florida- When these teams met in 2021, the Bulldogs actually led 42-35 at the half before the Gators took over with 21 points in the 3rd quarter to win 70-52. This game could be similar, but these are dogs that UF can beat. Gators win.
William & Mary @ Coastal Carolina- The Chanticleers and the Tribe will be meeting for the 1st time on the gridiron, and CCU should win this easily.
Eastern Kentucky @ WKU- The Hilltoppers lead the series 48-35-3 over the Colonels. The teams played twice a year in 1914, '15, and '16, then played again in 1921-22 (just once a year), before playing virtually every year from 1927-2008 with the occasional 1-3 year hiatus. Their last meeting was in 2017, and WKU has won the last 3, and 7 of the last 8. They'll win again this year. Hilltoppers for the win.
Chattanooga @ Georgia State- The Mocs have won the only previous meeting, 42-14 in 2013 in Atlanta. But that was in GSU's 1st year at the FBS level. Panthers win.
Cal Poly @ Stanford- The Cardinal have never played the Mustangs. Stanford wins.
Virginia @ Wake Forest- The Cavaliers lead the series 34-17, but the Demon Deacons have won the last 5 (since 2008). from 1984-2007, the Wahoos won 20 out of 21 matchups, which mostly explains their large lead in the series record. Both teams routed an FCS foe last week, and neither was very good last year, and they haven't played since 2021, so there isn't a heck of a lot to go on. My gut says UVA gets the win, so I'll listen to it. This time.
Louisiana @ Kennesaw State- The Ragin' Cajuns and the Owls have never met before. KSU opened their FBS tenure with a closer-than-expected result against UTSA while UL was blowing out an FCS school. I expect the Owls will keep it close, but the Cajuns will win.
San Jose State @ Air Force- The Falcons lead the series 5-2, with a 45-20 last year in San Jose. This game may be a little closer, but Air Force still wins.
Northern Colorado @ Colorado State- The Rams lead the series 20-0-1, and despite their big loss last week at Texas, should take care of the Bears. CSU wins.
Georgia Southern @ Nevada- The Eagles have won both prior meetings with the Wolf Pack, including 36-13 in the 1990 Division I-AA Championship Game in Statesboro. The other win was in 1986 in Reno. I've been impressed with both of these teams early this season, as GS played Boise State tough at home, and UN lost by 5 to SMU and then won at Troy. This is another one of those coin flip type games. Georgia Southern wins a close one.
Tulsa @ Arkansas State- The series is tied at 3 wins each, with the Golden Hurricane winning the most recent meeting in 2021. However, the Red Wolves are 2-0 in games played in Jonesboro. ASU wins.
UAB @ ULM- This series is tied 1-1, with each team winning at home in 1998 and 1999. The Warhawks are starting over yet again while HC Dilfer is in his 2nd year leading the Blazers. UAB wins a close one.
SE La @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles lead this series 19-3 over the Lions. USM gets their 20th win in the series.
Texas Southern @ Rice- The Owls got off to a poor start last week, losing to SHS by 20 points. They'll right the ship against the Tigers, against whom they are currently 2-0.
Western Michigan @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes won the only previous matchup, 38-15, back in 2015 in the Horseshoe. The Broncos don't seem to have much of a chance in this one. OSU wins.
Nicholls @ LSU- The Bayou Bengals will take out their frustrations in this 1st time meeting with the Colonels. Tigers win big.
Tennessee vs NC State (Charlotte)- These teams have met 3 times: a 16-0 NC State win in Raleigh in 1911, a 13-0 UT win in 1939 in Raleigh (that UT team was the last to shut out every regular season opponent), and a 35-21 UT win in Atlanta in 2012. This means they have never played in Knoxville! The Wolfpack were a little sluggish in getting past an FCS team last week while the Volunteers were stomping their FCS competition. This game should be competitive, but I see the Vols coming out on top.
Alcorn State @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores should defeat the Braves in this 1st ever contest between these 2 squads, as long as they can handle success.
Colorado @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers have dominated this series to the tune of a 49-21-3 lead, but the Buffaloes have won the last 3 (since 2018). These teams played 6 times between 1898 and 1907, and then played every year from 1948-2010 as co-members of the Big Eight and Big 12, and then 3 times since NU left the Big 12 for the Big Ten. From 1962 to 1985, Nebraska won 24 of 25 contests. The Buffs have won 3 of the last 6 played in Lincoln, but the Huskers are going to win this one.
Stephen F. Austin @ North Texas- The Mean Green lead the series 22-4-3, but they haven't played since 1994. UNT is looking to start a season 2-0 for the 1st time since they started 4-0 in 2018. Their last meeting was a 33-33 tie, and the one before was won by the Lumberjacks, but UNT will win this one.
Houston @ Oklahoma- The Sooners lead the series 3-1, including a win in their 1st meeting in the 1981 Sun Bowl, and the other 3 in 2004, 2016 (UH's lone win) and 2019. The Cougars got off to a rough start last week with a loss to UNLV, so they'll be looking to redeem themselves with a good showing here. But I don't think they can hang with the Sooners. OU wins.
Appalachian State @ Clemson- The Tigers lead the series 5-0, with only the game in 2015 being played this century. The other 4 were played between 1984 and 1997, and all but the 1997 game were won by at least 31 points. If ASU can somehow pull off the upset, that would vault them to the top of the G5 list, and maybe even earn themselves an at-large spot. But Clemson has better talent, and more of it. CU wins.
Long Island University @ TCU- The Horned Frogs have never played the Sharks, and while that sounds like a mismatch in the Shark's favor in the animal kingdom, in football, the Frogs are the favorite. TCU wins easily over LIU.
Southern Utah @ UTEP- The Miners and Thunderbirds will be facing off for the 1st time, and UTEP will get their 1st win of the '24 season.
Boise State @ Oregon- Surprisingly, the Broncos lead this series 3-0, with wins in 2008, 2009, and in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl. Another win would solidify BSU's perch at the top of the G5. But the Ducks will be looking to take a big leap forward in week 2 and erase the bad taste from barely getting by FCS Idaho. OU wins, but it won't be easy.
Northern Arizona @ Arizona- The Wildcats will be looking to start the season 2-0 for the 1st time since they were 3-0 at the start of the 2015 season, coincidentally thanks to a win over the Lumberjacks in their 3rd game. UA leads the series 16-2, with their losses coming in 1932 and 2021. Wildcats win.
Texas Tech @ Washington State- The Red Raiders lead the series 2-0, having won in 1963 and 1964, both times in Lubbock. The Cougars demolished their FCS team last week while TTU needed OT and a 2-pt conversion stop to subdue theirs. This should be a close, evenly matched game, but I'll go with Wazzu at home.
Sacramento State @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs will run their series record to 9-0 with a win over the Hornets.
Liberty @ New Mexico State- The Flames lead the series 5-2, including 2 wins last year: 33-17 in the regular season and 49-35 in the CUSA Championship Game. NMSU is almost completely starting over, with a new HC and lots of new players, and they showed it last week by barely beating FCS SE Mo. LU just seemed to pick up where they left off last year with a convincing win over FCS Campbell, but they are only 1-1 in games played in Las Cruces. The Flames win this, but don't be suprised if the Aggies keep it close, and maybe even pull the upset.
Mississippi State @ Arizona State- This is yet another 1st time meeting. Both teams won last week, ASU over Wyoming (by 41 points!) and MSU over an FCS squad by 49 points. The Sun Devils may be better than anyone expected, or it could be that Wyoming isn't very good. I'll go with the Bulldogs, but that makes me a little nervous, because I seem to be going with a whole lot of teams on the road this week.
Oregon State @ San Diego State- The Beavers lead the series 4-2, winning the last 4 (since 2000); SDSU's wins came in 1972 and 1975. This is the 1st of 7 games OSU has against Mountain West Conference teams, but they don't count in any conference standings. The Aztecs are another team that's starting over with a new HC, and it will take a year or 2 for Sean Lewis to "right the ship". Beavers win.
Utah State @ USC- The Trojans have won all 6 iterations of this series, from 1928 to 2016, and all 6 have been played in LA. The Aggies may be improved this year, but they won't be able to hang with USC. Trojans win big.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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