Paul's Picks Week 6
Welcome Back!
I had my worst week so far, going 36-19, a winning percentage of 65.5% (under 2/3). There are only 49 games in total this week, the fewest since Week Zero, so I sure hope I do a lot better. Games are much harder to predict once we move into conference play, where there are all these rivalries.
Overall, I am 281-79, a percentage of 78.1%, and a decrease of 2.2% from last week. I've finally dropped below 80% overall, but I can still reach my "realistic" goal of 75%.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 3
Texas State @ Troy- The Trojans lead this series by an astounding 13-1, winning the last 12, including 9 since 2013. The Bobcats got their lone win in 1997, and have never beaten the Trojans in Troy in 8 tries. TSU started the season with high hopes, but after a rout of UTSA in game #2, they lost by 3 to Arizona State, then by 1 to Sam Houston, who was 3-9 last year. Troy was expected to take a step back from their 11-3 season last year, but they've actually been pretty competitive in losses to Nevada, Memphis, Iowa, and last week to ULM, but they are really struggling to score points. Bobcats win, but by only a few points.
Sam Houston @ UTEP- The Miners lead the series 3-0, with wins in 1990, 2003, and 37-34 last year in Huntsville. This year, the Bearkats are off to a 4-1 start, while UTEP is 0-4. SHS wins.
Friday, October 4
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State- The Owls lead this series 3-1, with all meetings since 2017, but the Gamecocks won the most recent matchup, 35-28 in OT in 2022. Both teams are off to a rough start (a combined 1-7), but JSU has played better competition, and has a win over Southern Miss. KSU just lost to an FCS squad 11 points. This is the CUSA opener for both teams, and the first ever for the Owls, and it's at home. They'll be inspired to pull the upset, but will likely fade in the 2nd half. Gamecocks win.
Houston @ TCU- This series is tied at 13 wins each, but the Horned Frogs have won the last 9 (since 1993) including in the 2007 Texas Bowl and 36-13 last year. The Cougars are off to a horrific start, as they are 1-4 overall, 0-2 in the Big XII, and have been shut out in 2 consecutive games. TCU wins, but UH will score this week.
Michigan State @ Oregon- I was surprised to learn that these teams have actually played 7 times, with each team winning thrice at home, and the Ducks winning 7-6 in the 2018 Redbox Bowl. Four of the meetings were between 1979 and 1999, with the other 2 coming in 2014-15. The Spartans are a decent 3-2, with wins over FAU and Maryland, but also losses to BC and Ohio State. UO is 4-0, and after a sluggish couple of games, have looked much better in their last 2. Ducks win.
Syracuse @ UNLV- These teams have never faced off on the gridiron before. The Orange are off to a strong start, with a win over GT and a 2-point loss to Stanford. The Rebels have started even stronger, with 2 wins over P5 teams and a rout of expected MWC contender Fresno State last week. UNLV's defense has yet to allow more than 20 points to any opponent, and have held 3 to 14 or less. Syracuse has been better on offense than on defense. I expect a close game, but the Rebels will win this at home.
Saturday, October 5
UCLA @ Penn State- The Bruins lead the series 4-2, going 2-1 in both LA and in State College, but all those games took place between 1963 and 1968. Things are just a little bit different now, as the Nittany Lions are 4-0/1-0, and UCLA is 1-3/0-2. Penn State wins.
Missouri @ Texas A&M- The Aggies lead the series 9-7, including 35-14 in 2021, but the Tigers have won 7 of the last 10 (since 2002), including 3 of the last 4 played in College Station. TAMU won each of the 1st 6 meetings, between 1957 and 1999, and it's tied 2-2 since both joined the SEC in 2012. Mizzou is 4-0, but have close wins over BC and Vandy (2 OTs). However, the Tigers were off last week. The Aggies have won 4 in a row after their opening loss to Notre Dame, but strained to get by BGSU and Arkansas the last 2 weeks. In my mind, this is a toss-up. Texas A&M wins, and hands Missouri their 1st loss of the season.
SMU @ Louisville- The Mustangs lead the series 2-0, winning in 1983 and 1984 by a combined 65-13 score. But that was in the days of the old Pony Express teams, just before SMU was given the "Death Penalty" by the NCAA. The Cardinals suffered their 1st loss last week, losing by 7 to Notre Dame in South Bend, but GT is their only "big" win. SMU is 4-1, with big wins over TCU and FSU, which followed a 3-point loss to BYU, which looks better and better with each passing week. The Ponies win, but I doubt it will be by a large margin.
Purdue @ Wisconsin- The Badgers lead this series 53-29-8, and have won 17 straight (since 2004) to make this as lopsided as it is. The Boilermakers last won in 2003, and it was also in Madison, but they've lost 8 straight played at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin doesn't appear to be very good, but Purdue has been just awful. Badgers win.
UMass @ Northern Illinois- The Huskies have won both matchups, in 2012 and 2013, scoring 63 points each time, while pitching a shutout in DeKalb, and allowing 19 points in Foxboro. The Minutemen took Miami, Oh to OT last week, a week after earning their 1st win, albeit over a team from the FCS ranks. NIU upset Notre Dame in week 2, but has since lost 2 close games in a row, with 1 in OT. Huskies win, but I don't think they score 63 this time.
Boston College @ Virginia- The Eagles lead the series 7-1, including wins in the 1994 Carquest Bowl and 27-24 last year. but the Cavaliers got their lone win in 2020, the last time it was played in Charlottesville. BC is 4-1, with only a 6-point loss to Missouri to stain their record, but the last 3 wins have been by a combined 5 points. UVA is 3-1, with a loss to Maryland and a big win over CCU. The Wahoos are coming out of an off week. UVA wins in a mild upset at home.
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels lead this series 12-5, winning the last 2, including 41-24 last year, but the Panthers won the 2 before that, and in the 2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl in Charlotte. Pitt is 4-0, and were off last week, but this is their ACC opener. UNC started 3-0, but has lost their last 2 to JMU and Duke, blowing a 20-0 2nd half lead in the latter game. Panthers win.
Wake Forest @ NC State- The Wolfpack lead the series 69-42-6, winning the last 2, but the Demon Deacons have won 4 of the last 7. These teams 1st met in 1895, and have played almost every year since 1908. NC State has lost big to the only 2 decent teams they have faced (Tennessee and Clemson) by a combined 110-45, but WF doesn't have an FBS win. Wolfpack wins.
Navy @ Air Force- This series began in 1960, and the Falcons lead 34-22, including wins in each of the last 4 years. However, AF has started the season 1-3, with each loss by 10+ points. In contrast, the Midshipmen are 4-0, with their closest win by 12 over AAC preseason favorite Memphis. Navy hasn't won in Colorado since 2012, losing 5 in a row there, but they'll break that streak with a win this year. But I bet it will be a close game, at least for a half or so. Navy wins to take early control of the battle for the CIC Trophy.
Army @ Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane defeated the Black Knights 49-39 in 2007 in West Point in their only prior contest. Like Navy, Army is also 4-0, with their closest win by 17 over FAU. Tulsa is 2-3, and looks improved from last year, but they won't get past the Black Knights. Army goes rolling along.
Tulane @ UAB- This series is tied at 6 wins apiece, with the Blazers winning 2 of the last 3, but the Green Wave winning 35-23 last year, and 6 of the last 10 (since 2002). Tulane already has 2 losses this year, which is 2/3 of the way to the 3 losses they had last year, but they were to P5 teams. In fact, their last 6 losses are to P5 teams, as they have won their last 19 against G5/FCS teams, and are 6-6 against current P5 teams over the last 2+ seasons. On the other hand, UAB has lost 4 in a row to FBS teams, and 11 of their last 14, but they are 3-2 against Tulane in Birmingham. The Green Wave extinguishes the Blazers.
Western Michigan @ Ball State- The Broncos lead the series 28-22, winning the last 2, and 7 of the last 10, but the Cardinals have split the last 6, and have won 2 of the last 3 played in Muncie. WMU has had a tough schedule (at Wisconsin, at Ohio State, at Marshall- all losses), and won't play their 2nd home game until next week against Akron. BSU has faced a schedule only marginally easier- at Miami, Fl, at CMU, at JMU (all losses) - so this is only their 2nd home game (but they go on the road for the next 2 weeks!). Based on these results, it's difficult to know if they are good MAC teams, mediocre MAC teams, or bad MAC teams, but I'm going with W Mich to get the win on the road.
Auburn @ Georgia- The Bulldogs lead the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry with 64 wins, 56 losses, and 8 ties, as they have won the last 7 (beginning with the 2017 SEC CG), and 16 of the last 19. This rivalry began way back in 1892, and Dawgs and Tigers have played every year since except for 1893, 1897, 1917-18 (WWI- UGA didn't field a team), and 1943 (the War Eagles didn't have a team). That's 128 meetings in 133 seasons (130 non-war seasons), as they've played every year both schools have had a team since 1898! The Plainsmen are only 2-3, losing close games to Cal, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, and they haven't won in Athens since 2005 (8 straight losses Between the Hedges). UGA suffered their 1st regular season defeat since 2020, so it's unknown how they will react to this new adversity. Dawgs win, but this game is almost always close, even when one team is a lot better than the other.
Iowa @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes have dominated this series 47-15-3, winning 16 of the last 19 (since 1989). The teams 1st played in 1922, with Iowa opening the series with a 3-0-1 record through 1925, but from 1926 onward, it's been mostly OSU. The Hawkeyes present the 1st "real" challenge to the Buckeyes, as they are 3-1, with their only blemish a 1-point loss to undefeated rival Iowa State, and they were off last week to prepare for OSU's potent offense. Iowa relies on its defense, and this year, they have been scoring points, totaling at least 31 in each of their 3 wins. The Buckeyes have scored 38+ in all 4 games against lesser competition, and have allowed a total of 27 points in their 4 contests. OSU wins, but I think the Hawkeyes hang around deep into the 2nd half.
Ole Miss @ South Carolina- The Rebels are looking to rebound from their surprising upset loss to Kentucky last week, a team the Gamecocks beat by 25 in Week 2. Ole Miss leads the series 9-8, winning their last matchup in 2020, but SC has won 3 of the last 4 (since 2009), with the Rebels leading 5-3 since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1992 (they didn't play as conference mates until 1999). The teams played 9 time between 1947 and 1981, with SC holding the 5-4 edge in those contests. The Gamecocks were off last week, and their only loss was by 3 to LSU at home, and they are 4-4 against the Rebels in Columbia. SC will give them a game, but Ole Miss bounces back to get back in the win column.
Indiana @ Northwestern- The Wildcats hold a 47-35-1 advantage in this series, winning 5 of the last 6, and 9 of the last 11, but the Hoosiers won the last meeting in 2019 in Bloomington. IU hasn't won in Evanston since 1993 (8 straight losses), but they'll keep their 5-game winning streak alive with a win.
Temple @ UConn- The Owls lead the series 14-6, winning the last 2, 5 of the last 6, and 7 of the last 9 (since 2010), and have won the last 4 played in East Hartford. But Temple is off to a slow 1-4 start, with a win over Utah State. The Huskies have 2 losses- both to P5 teams, but have won their last 2, and are 1-0 against AAC teams this year, and are 2-1 the last season plus. UConn wins.
Virginia Tech @ Stanford- The Cardinal defeated the Hokies 40-12 in the 2011 Orange Bowl in their only previous meeting. Stanford has a win over Syracuse (by 2 points), and losses to TCU (by 7) and Clemson (by 26). VT is only 2-3, with 2 wins over Sun Belt teams, and losses to Vandy, Rutgers, and Miami, each by 7 points or less. Much depends on how the Hokies handle their losses from the last 2 weeks, and also how they handle the cross country travel. Stanford wins a close one.
Appalachian State @ Marshall- The Mountaineers lead the series 16-10, but most of the games took place between 1977 and 2002. Since 2020, the series is tied 2-2, and the Thundering Herd have won the last 3 played in Huntington, and 4 of the last 5. This year, App State has just looked ordinary, much like they did in 2022 (when they were 6-6). Marshall is only 2-2, but both losses were to P5 teams. The Herd will thunder over the Mountaineers.
Miami, Oh @ Toledo- In a series begun in 1936, the Redhawks lead the Rockets 29-23-1, winning 23-14 last year in the MAC Championship Game, but the Rockets have won 4 of the last 6, including in the 2004 MAC Championship Game. After playing every year from 1955-1998, they've only played 8 times since, including those 2 MAC CG appearances. Toledo is 3-1, with a win over Miss State and a loss to WKU, and they were off last week. Miami is 1-3, winning their 1st game in OT over woeful UMass, but all 3 losses were to P5 teams, 2 by a combined 18 points to Northwestern and rival Cincinnati. This will be a close, hard fought game, but the Rockets will pull it out at home.
Bowling Green @ Akron- The Falcons lead the series 20-10, winning the last 2, and 12 of the last 15, but the Zips are 3-4 over the last 7 (but only 1-2 in Akron). BGSU has 3 losses- at Penn State (by 7), at Texas A&M (by 6), and vs ODU (by 3) at home. Akron hasn't really been competitive in their 4 losses, but they were at undefeated Ohio State, at undefeated Rutgers, at 3-1 South Carolina, and at 3-2 Ohio, so this is only their 2nd home game, and their losses are to teams with a combined 14-3, so they could be twice as good as last year's team, and we wouldn't know it. The Falcons bounce back from their loss to ODU and win on the road.
East Carolina @ Charlotte- The 49ers own the only win in this series, eking by the Pirates 10-7 last year in Greenville. But this year, Charlotte faces an ECU team that already has more than the 2 wins they ended last year with, and one that has defeated preseason AAC favorite UTSA. Both are 1-0 in the conference, so this game is important for building momentum. ECU wins.
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys lead the series 10-5, winning 8 of the last 9, including 48-34 last year, but the Mountaineers won the last time these 2 played in Stillwater. OSU even owns a win in the 1987 Sun Bowl. The Cow Pokes started the season strong, winning their 1st 3, but they are now 0-2 in the Big 12, and absolutely must have this win to stay alive in the conference title chase. WVU was off last week, and has a win over Kansas, but losses to Pitt and Penn State. I've gone back and forth on this one, but I'm going with the home team. OSU wins.
Rutgers @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers have won all 6 times these teams have played, even winning 28-0 in 1920 in New York, NY. This will be only the 3rd time the Scarlet Knights have traveled to Lincoln, and they come in on a roll, 4-0 and 1-0 in the Big Ten. NU is also on a roll, at 4-1 and 1-1, with a loss to Illinois. If it's a close game, Rutgers will win (the Huskers can't seem to win 1-score games, losing 5 in a row). Huskers win by 10+.
Alabama @ Vanderbilt- The Crimson Tide lead this series by an overwhelming 60-19-4, winning the last 23 (since 1985, counting 3 since vacated wins), and has won 37 of the last 38 (since 1970), and 46 of the last 48 (since 1960). Vandy's last win in Nashville was in 1969 (19 consecutive losses), 55 years ago! The Tide is coming off a huge emotional win over UGA, and could be suffering from a bit of a hangover, so to speak. The Commodores were off last week, but have beaten Va Tech and played Missouri into 2 OTs. Vandy will not go gently, but Bama rolls.
Colorado State @ Oregon State- The Rams lead this series 2-1, winning in 2017 at home and in 1975 in Corvallis, with the Beavers getting their lone win in 1962, also in Corvallis. CSU has done exactly as expected so far this season, beating lesser foes and losing to 2 P5 teams. OSU isn't that far removed from being considered a P5 team (I still do, hence me using P5 instead of P4), and their only loss is to rival Oregon. Beavers win.
Clemson @ FSU- The Seminoles lead the series 21-15, including a 31-24 win last year in Death Valley, but the Tigers have won 7 of the last 8. Clemson has bounced back after an opening loss to UGA, mauling 3 other teams, including 2 from the ACC. FSU is just awful, unable to score, and unable to stop other teams from scoring (except Cal). That seems like a bad combination. Tigers win big.
Utah State @ Boise State- The Broncos lead the series 23-5, winning the last 8, and 20 of the last 21 (since 1998), The Aggies were off last week, but they lost to Temple 2 weeks ago, for gosh sakes. Boise State wins.
ODU @ Coastal Carolina- The Monarchs lead the series 2-1, including 1-0 in Conway, but the Chanticleers won 28-24 last year. CCU is 3-1, with wins on the road at Jax State and Temple, and a loss at home to UVA. ODU is only 1-3, but they beat a decent Bowling Green, and have losses to South Carolina (by 4), ECU (by 6), and Va Tech. I'm not really sure how these teams stack up against each other, so I'll go with the home team. Chants win.
South Alabama @ Arkansas State- This series is tied at 6-6, but the Jaguars have won the last 5, and 6 of the last 7. USA has a big win over App State, and their losses were to UNT, at Ohio (by 7), and at LSU. The Red Wolves are 2-2, with a win over Tulsa and losses at Michigan and Iowa State. This should be a close game, and the winner could grab the inside track for finishing 1st or 2nd in the SBC West. ASU wins.
James Madison @ ULM- This will be a first-time matchup between these 2 teams. The Dukes are 4-0, and have won 18 of their last 20 games. The Warhawks are a solid 3-1, with a loss at Texas. ULM will give a good battle, but JMU pulls out a close one.
Louisiana @ Southern Miss- The Eagles lead the series 41-11-1, winning the last 11 (since 1994), including in the 2016 New Orleans Bowl. USM is 1-3, with 3 blowout losses to Kentucky, USF, and Jax State. Louisiana is 3-1, with a win over Wake Forest and a close loss to Tulane. Ragin' Cajuns win.
Tennessee @ Arkansas- The Volunteers lead the series 13-6, including wins in the 1971 Liberty Bowl and 1990 Cotton Bowl, but the Razorbacks have won the last 3 (since 2011). The Vols also won the only time they met before the Liberty Bowl- by an exciting score of 14-2 in 1907. The Hogs are 3-2, and are 1-1 in the SEC, so they are still theoretically in the race for a title. But UT is 4-0, with an average margin of victory of 47 points, and had last week off to prepare. The only hope the Piggies have is if the Vols are looking ahead 2 weeks to their home game against Bama. UT wins.
Michigan @ Washington- This is a rematch of last year's National Championship Game, but now it's just another conference game. The Wolverines lead the series 9-5, winning the last 3 (since 2002). The 2 teams have met 4 times in the Rose Bowl- 1978, 1981, 1991, and 1992- with each team winning twice. The teams are also 2-2 in games played in Seattle. UM is 4-1/2-0, with only a loss to Texas on their resume'. The Huskies are 3-2, with losses to rival Washington State and at Rutgers, and at 1-1 in the Big Ten, can't afford any more losses. This will be UW's 5th home contest in their 1st 6 games (4 of their last 6 are on the road). This should be closer than last year's NC Game, but the result will be the same. Wolverines win.
USC @ Minnesota- The Trojans lead the series 6-1-1, winning the last 5 (since 1968), and they are 3-1 in Minneapolis, but they last played in 2011. The Golden Gophers are 0-2 in the Big Ten, and even have a home loss to a very mediocre UNC. USC has a loss at Michigan, but otherwise has played well. Both teams lost to Michigan by the same score, 27-24, and both were in Ann Arbor. I guess that means this should be a close game, but the Trojans will win.
Baylor @ Iowa State- The Bears lead the series 12-10, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Cyclones won 30-18 last year, and have won 2 of the last 3 played in Ames. ISU is undefeated at 4-0/1-0, and even has a win over rival Iowa. Baylor is only 2-3/0-3, but all 3 losses were by 9 points or less to Big 12 opponents. The Bears are capable of pulling the upset, but I see the Cyclones as possibly being 10-0 when they travel to Utah on Nov 23. ISU wins.
Nevada @ San Jose State- The Wolf Pack lead this series 23-11, and have won 11 of the last 14 (since 2008, but the Spartans have won 2 of the last 3, including 35-28 in their last meeting in 2022, and they've won the last 2 (and 3 of the last 4) played at home. SJSU was off last week, and they enter this game at 3-1, with only a loss in 2 OTs to Washington State. Nevada was also off last week, but they are only 2-3 with 2 P5 losses, one by just 5 points. This could go down to the wire, but the Spartans will prevail.
UCF @ Florida- The Gators lead the series 2-1, winning in 1999 and 2006, but the Knights won the most recent matchup, 29-17 in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl. UCF suffered their 1st loss last week, getting trampled by the Colorado Buffaloes, as UF had an off week to lick their wounds from a 2-2 start (1-1 in the SEC). I see the Knights running around, through, and over the Gators. UCF wins.
Duke @ Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets lead the series 54-35-1, winning the last 3 in a series that began in 1933, and had been played every year since... until last year. This year, the Blue Devils are 5-0, and 1-0 in the ACC, but they've won 3 games by 6 points or less, and they have played- how shall I say it- less than stellar competition. The Jackets are 3-2, and had an off week last week. I smell an upset. GT wins to hand Duke their 1st loss of the season (but it won't be their last).
Kansas @ Arizona State- This will be the 1st time the Jayhawks and Sun Devils ever play in football. KU is a very disappointing 1-4 with their only win over an FCS team (4 losses by a combined 24 points). ASU is a surprising 3-1, with an 8-point loss to Texas Tech, but 2 of their 3 wins were by a combined 10 points. I smell another "upset". Kansas wins.
Hawaii @ San Diego State- The Aztecs lead the series 25-11-2, winning the last 4 (41-34 last year), 11 of the last 13, and 20 of the last 24, as the Rainbow Warriors have won only once in San Diego (2018) since 1988 (lost 10 of last 11 there). However, SDSU is only 1-3, including a 1-point loss to CMU of the MAC, while UH is 2-2, with a close loss to UCLA, but both wins were over FCS teams. Aztecs win.
Miami, Fl @ California- There's nothing like an ACC game starting at 10:30 on a Saturday night! And I would never have guessed that these teams had played 4 times before, with the Hurricanes winning in 1989 and 1990 (the only one played in Berkeley), and the Golden Bears winning in 1964 and in the 2008 Emerald Bowl. The Canes have moved into at least a co-favorite role (with Clemson) for an ACC title, and while Cal has a win at Auburn, were off last week, and will be hosting their 1st ACC game ever, they also are the only team so far to lose to FSU. Miami wins.
Texas Tech @ Arizona- The Red Raiders have dominated this series 26-5-2, but the Wildcats have won 2 of the last 3, and are 2-0-1 in the last 3 played in Tucson. However, only one of the games in this series has been played since 1989, and they've only met 3 times since 1979. All the rest of the meetings were between 1932 and 1979. TTU is a surprising 4-1, losing to Washington State on the road, and this game represents only their 2nd foray outside of Lubbock. Arizona is 3-1, with a 13-point win over Big XII favorite Utah, but they also have a 24-point loss to KSU. This is one of those pivotal games that could decide both teams' fortunes for the rest of the year. Flip a coin, but I think the Red Raiders surprise the Wildcats and pull the upset.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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