Paul's Picks Week 7
Welcome Back!
I had a mediocre week, going 36-13, a winning percentage of 73.5%. There are only 52 games in total this week, just a few more than last week, so I sure hope I do a lot better. Games are much harder to predict once we move into conference play, where there are all these rivalries.
Overall, I am 317-92, a percentage of 77.5%, and a decrease of 0.6% from last week. I'm below 80% overall, and won't get back there, but I can still reach my "realistic" goal of 75%.
So far, I am 2-0 after the early games.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 10
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison- The Dukes lead this series 3-1, losing the 1st contest in 2005, but winning the last 3: in 2007, 2022, and 2023, all by at least 35 points. Both teams are 4-1, but CCU is 1-0 in the Sun Belt Conference, while JMU is 0-1. The Chanticleers have a good offense with just an ok defense while the Dukes have been inconsistent on offense- scoring anywhere from 13 to 70 points- but have held 4 of 5 foes to 21 points or less (3 to 7 points or less). Both need this win to keep pace with Ga Southern and Marshall in the SBC East, but I'll go with the home team. JMU wins a close one.
Middle Tennessee @ La Tech- The Bulldogs lead the series 5-3, but the Blue Raiders have won 3 of the last 5 (since 2000), including 31-23 last year at home. However, MT is 0-4 in games played in Ruston. These teams are a combined 2-7 (0-7 vs FBS opponents), and each team is 0-1 in CUSA. The biggest difference I see is that LT is losing games by an average of 6.7 ppg and their 3 losses were each by 10 points or less, while the Blue Raiders are losing by 30.5 ppg, with none closer than 17 points. Bulldogs win at home.
UTEP @ WKU- The Hilltoppers lead the series 4-0, but 3 of the wins were by 8 points or less, including 21-13 last year in El Paso. UTEP is winless on the season, even losing to an FCS team in OT. WKU wins, but history suggests it may be closer than expected.
Friday, October 11
Northwestern @ Maryland- The Wildcats lead the series 3-1, with the Terrapins getting their lone win in 2022 in College Park (1-1 there). All games have taken place since 2017. The Cats are only 1-3 vs FBS competition, with a 7-point win over Miami, Oh in their opener, and they are 0-2 in the Big Ten. The Terps are 2-2 against FBS foes, with both losses in the Big Ten. This is a battle to stay out of the conference basement. Fear the Turtles! Maryland wins at home.
UNLV @ Utah State- The Aggies lead the series 19-7, winning 6 of the last 7 (since 2012), but the Rebels won 34-24 in their last meeting, in 2022, which was also in Logan. UNLV is coming off of an OT loss to Syracuse, but have won 14 of their last 21 games, and are 4-1 this year. USU has yet to defeat an FBS team this year, and even lost to Temple. Rebels win.
Utah @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils lead the series 22-12, much of it on the strength of 11 straight wins from 1977-2014, and a 7-2 record from 1967-1975, but the Utes have won 4 in a row, including 55-3 last year in Salt Lake City. Both teams are 4-1 overall, and 1-1 in their new conference, the Big XII. Utah is coming out of their off week following a loss to Arizona. All 3 of ASU's wins have been by 7 points or less, and their loss to Texas Tech was by 8 points. This could be a good game for a Friday night, but the Utes pull it out in the end.
Saturday, October 12
South Carolina @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide lead this series 13-4, but it's only 6-3 since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1992 (the Tide won 7 matchups between 1937 and 1967), and 2 of those wins have since been forfeited (1993) or vacated (2005). They haven't played since 2019, a 47-23 Alabama win, and SC's last win was in 2010. The Gamecocks have 1 win in 10 tries in the state of Alabama, winning 20-3 in Tuscaloosa in 2004 (the teams played in Montgomery in 1945). Everyone expects Bama to come out with renewed focus and energy, but the last 2 times the Tide has lost to Vanderbilt, they have lost the very next game. In 1984, Bama lost to Georgia at home the following week, 24-14, and in 1969, they lost 41-14 to Tennessee. In fact, the Tide has lost to the opponent following a Vandy loss 5 times in a row. You have to go all the way back to 1950 to find a Bama win following a Vandy loss, when they defeated Furman 34-6. The losses were 23-6 to TCU in 1956, 21-0 to TCU in 1955, and 41-18 to Villanova in 1951. While none of this is predictive of what will happen this Saturday, it's kinda fascinating, as Vandy has never won 10 games in a season, and their best record was 9-1 in 1915 (but had 2 straight seasons of 9-4 in 2012 and 2013 under former HC James Franklin). Anyway, none of this really matters a hill of beans, especially since SC's claim to fame this year is a 25-point rout of Kentucky, and a 3-point loss to LSU. Bama wins, but SC will make it tough on them. For at least 5 minutes.
Missouri @ UMass- Poor UMass. The Tigers will win this 1st ever matchup with the Minutemen. Mizzou wins by a lot.
Clemson @ Wake Forest- The Tigers have dominated this series, leading 71-17-1, including the last 15. The Demon Deacons had one shining moment, winning 6 straight from 1942-47, but before and after that, it was mostly sporadic victories, winning twice in a row only one other time, in 1992-93. WF got an upset of NC State last week, but the Tigers are a LOT better than the Wolfpack. Clemson wins easily.
Washington @ Iowa- This series is tied 3-3, with the Huskies winning in 1937, and in the 1982 and 1991 Rose Bowls, and the Hawkeyes winning in 1963, 1964 (the only one played in Iowa City), and the 1995 Sun Bowl. UW is coming off of a huge win over Michigan at home, but are 0-1 on the road with a loss at Rutgers, making them 2-1 in the Big Ten. Iowa got plastered at Ohio State last week, but are 2-1 at home and 1-1 in the Big Ten. Surprisingly, the Huskies have had the better defense so far this year, holding all 6 opponents to 24 points or less; their problem has been offense, as they have been held to 24 points or below 3 times. The Hawkeyes have been mediocre on both offense and defense, which is a step on on offense, but a step back on the defensive side of the ball. Despite the poor Big Ten record so far of road teams losing cross-country conference games, I think U-Dub takes the win.
Wisconsin @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights have never beaten the Badgers in 5 tries, and only once have they lost by less than 14 points, and that was a 23-14 loss last year in Madison. This year, Rutgers has the better overall record, 4-1 vs 3-2, but both teams are 1-1 in the Big Ten. The Knights have the better defense, holding all 5 opponents to 23 points or less, but have struggled scoring, being held to 26 or less in each of 3 games against P5 foes. UW was blown out by Alabama and USC before crushing Purdue by 46 last week. I'll go with the home team with the better defense. Rutgers wins.
Georgia Tech @ North Carolina- In a series that began in 1915, the Yellow Jackets lead 33-21-3, winning the last 3, and 5 of the last 6, including 46-42 last year, and they've won the last 2 played in Chapel Hill (and 5 of the last 7). UNC has lost 3 in a row after starting the season 3-0, and they are 0-2 in the ACC. GT is 4-2 overall, and 2-2 in the conference. In their only common opponent, the Jackets defeated Duke 24-14 last week while the Tar Heels lost to the Blue Devils 21-20 the week before. GT has a history of winning games they aren't supposed to, and losing games they should win, so I'm tempted to go with UNC, but I think the Jackets pull out a close one.
Ball State @ Kent State- The Cardinals lead the series 23-8, winning the last 2, and 4 of the last 5, including 34-3 last year, but the Golden Flashes have won 3 of the last 4 played in Kent. These teams are a combined 1-9, with the only win BSU's victory over an FCS team, and they are a combined 0-3 in the MAC. KSU is currently sporting a 14-game losing streak, and have not won an FBS game since beating Buffalo in OT at the end of the 2022 season. The Cardinals have lost 5 straight FBS games, with their last win over Kent State in the penultimate week of the 2023 season. This game and the one vs Akron on Nov 19 are the best chances for the Flashes to break their long losing streak. Neither team is playing very well, but BS has had 2 close losses (3 points each to CMU and WMU) while KS hasn't lost by less than 19 to any FBS foes, and their last loss by less than 10 points was to Akron near the end of last season. Cardinals win.
Toledo @ Buffalo- The Rockets lead the series 8-6, winning 31-13 last year, but the Bulls have won 3 of the last 4 (since 2018), including the last 2 (and 3 of the last 4) played at home. The Bulls are 1-0 in the MAC, having already spoiled Northern Illinois' perfect season, but Toledo is the best team in the MAC (in my opinion). Rockets win.
UAB @ Army- The Blazers have won all 5 meetings with the Black Knights, but those all occurred when they were both in CUSA from 2000-2004. Army is off to a fantastic start at 5-0, and 4-0 in the AAC, but they have yet to play any of the contenders (and avoid Memphis and Tulane altogether). UAB is not one of the contenders, as they have no wins against FBS opponents, and all of their losses have been by 10+ points. Army wins big.
Miami, Oh @ Eastern Michigan- The Redhawks lead the series 19-6, but the Eagles have won the last 2 meetings, in 2017 and 2021 by a combined 4 points. EMU is the surprise team in the MAC, as they are 4-1 overall with their loss at Washington, and 1-0 in the MAC. The Redhawks have played a tougher schedule (at Northwestern, Cincinnati, at Notre Dame, at Toledo), and are playing their 4th game on the road in their 1st 6 games, and have won 6 of the last 7 played in Ypsilanti. They do have one common opponent, as Miami defeated UMass 23-20 in OT on Sep 28, and the Eagles defeated the Minutemen 28-14 in their season opener. This game could go either way, but I'm a believer in E Mich. Eagles win.
Texas vs Oklahoma (Dallas)- This will be the 119th rendition of the Red River Rivalry (but the 120th meeting), with the game being played in Dallas every year since 1929. It's also been played in Norman (3 times), Austin (10 times), Houston (once), and Oklahoma City (3 times). Their other meeting was in the 2018 Big XII Championship Game in Arlington. The Longhorns hold a 63-51-5 advantage in the rivalry, but the Sooners have won 5 of the last 6, and 11 of the last 15, including 34-30 last year. This year, they are meeting for the 1st time as SEC members, and so far, UT has had a better start to their tenure than OU. Texas is 5-0/1-0, with every win by at least 19 points, and 3 by 48+ points. Oklahoma is 4-1/1-1, but with 3 wins by 15 or less, and a 10-point loss to the other UT, Tennessee. I'm tempted to pick the upset, but with Quinn Ewers returning at QB for the Longhorns, I just can't pull the trigger. Texas wins a close one.
Memphis @ USF- This game was originally scheduled for Friday night, but due to the expected arrival of Hurricane Milton, was moved to Saturday at 3:30. The Tigers lead the series 8-4, winning the last 3, including 59-50 last year, and they are 4-1 in Tampa, but the Bulls won in the 2008 Saint Petersburg Bowl. Both teams are 0-1 in the AAC, with Memphis losing to Navy by 12 and USF falling to Tulane by 35. Both teams were off last week, so neither has an advantage in that department. Tigers win.
Penn State @ USC- The Trojans lead this series 6-4, winning the last 3 in 2000, and in the 2009 and 2017 Rose Bowls. They are 1-1 against the Nittany Lions in East Rutherford, NJ, 0-2 in State College, 2-0 in LA, and 0-1 in Tempe, losing in the 1982 Fiesta Bowl. They also have another win in Pasadena, in 1923, but this will be their 1st meeting as fellow conference members. USC is only 3-2, but the losses were by a combined 10 points, while only their 7-point win over LSU in the season opener was by less than 17 points. PSU is undefeated at 5-0, with wins at West Virginia and vs Illinois their most impressive. Big Ten teams have struggled with cross-country travel, and I think the Nittany Lions suffer the same fate as so many of their brethren. USC wins a close one at home.
Stanford @ Notre Dame- In a series that began with a 27-10 ND victory in the 1925 Rose Bowl, the Fighting Irish hold a 22-14 edge, winning 4 of the last 5, including 56-23 last year, but the Cardinal won 16-14 the last time this was played in South Bend, in 2022. Except for 2020, this game has been played every year since 1997, and almost every year since 1988 (skipped 1995-96). They also played in 1942, 1963, and 1964. The Irish are coming out of their off week, and so should be able to top a mediocre Stanford team with 1 win over an FBS opponent in their last 7 tries (and 4 in their last 20). Irish win.
Louisville @ Virginia- The Cardinals lead the series 7-5, winning the last 2, but the Cavaliers have won 3 of the last 6, and 2 of the last 3 played in Charlottesville. Surprisingly, UVA has the better recored, both overall and in the ACC, as the Wahoos are 4-1/2-0 (loss to Maryland by 14, wins over BC and at WF), while UL is 3-2/1-1 (win over GT, losses to ND and SMU the last 2 weeks). Hoos win at home.
Purdue @ Illinois- The Boilermakers have won the last 4 games, and 15 of the last 19, to take over the lead in the series by a score of 48-45-6, and they've won the last 6 played in Champaign. In fact, the Fighting Illini haven't won this game at home since 2010, as they've lost 10 of the last 12 played in Memorial Stadium. But this year, the Illini are off to a 4-1 start (1-1 in the big Ten), while Purdue just may be the worst P5 teams in the nation (except maybe Mississippi State or FSU). Illinois wins.
California @ Pittsburgh- These teams have actually played 5 times before, with Pitt leading 3-2, but all 5 meetings occurred between 1955 and 1966, with the Panthers 2-0 in Pittsburgh. The Golden Bears have struggled a bit in their 1st season in the ACC, as they are the only teams to lose to FSU, so it would be a big upset if they were to defeat the undefeated Panthers. Pitt wins.
Cincinnati @ UCF- The Knights lead the series 5-4, and are 3-1 at home in the Bounce House, with their current 2-game winning streak ending a 3-game winning streak by the Bearcats. Both teams are 3-2/1-1, with UCF coming off 2 straight losses and Cincinnati being off last week. Bearcats win in a mild upset to surpass their 3 wins from all of last year.
San Diego State @ Wyoming- The Aztecs and Cowboys went a combined 1-7 in OOC games (1-1 vs FCS teams), but both are 1-0 in the MWC, with Wyoming beating Air Force, and SDSU defeating Hawaii by 3. This series is tied at 19 wins each, with the Aztecs winning the last 2, and 4 of the last 5 (since 2012, as they haven't played since 2019). The Cowboys have only won 1 of the last 3 played in Laramie. SDSU wins a close one.
ODU @ Georgia State- The Monarchs lead this series 4-1, including 2-1 in Atlanta. GSU is 2-2/0-1, with a win over Vandy and losses to Ga Southern and at Ga Tech. They've only played once since Sep 14, as they had an off week both before and after their game with #SouthernNotState. ODU is only 1-4/0-1, but they have a win over Bowling Green, and losses at South Carolina (by 4), to ECU (by 6), to Va Tech (by 20), and to CCU (by 8), so they are only a few plays away from being 4-1. This is a battle to stay out of last place in the SBC East, and unfortunately, ODU will probably win that battle. Monarchs win a close one.
Akron @ Western Michigan- The Broncos lead the series 16-5, winning the last 2, but the Zips are 1-1 in Kalamazoo the last 2 times it has been played there. Akron is 1-5, but played BGSU closely last week. WMU is only 2-3, but won at Ball State last week. W Mich wins at home.
Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green- The Falcons lead the series 12-11, winning in the 2013 and 2015 MAC Championship Games, but the Huskies have won the last 3, and 7 of the last 9 (since 2004), with their own MAC CG win in 2014 sandwiched between those 2 CG losses. This is one of those early pecking order games, as the winner will have the tiebreaker edge should these teams end up tied for 1st or 2nd. NIU got back on the winning track last week against UMass after losing 2 in a row following their massive upset of ND. BGSU also pulled out a win over Akron last week following 3 consecutive losses, 2 on the road at Penn State and Texas A&M (lost by a combined 13 points), and a 3-point loss to ODU at home. The Huskies should win this, but I don't trust them. Falcons win, but barely.
Arizona @ BYU- This series is tied at 12-12-1, with the Cougars winning the last 3 (since 2016), and 6 of the last 8 (since 1976). BYU is coming out of their off week with a 5-0 record, and wins over Kansas State and at Baylor in the Big XII, as they've handed both KSU and SMU their only losses on the season. Only Baylor has scored more than 14 points against the BYU defense. The Wildcats are 3-2, with losses to Kansas State and Texas Tech, but only the latter counts in the standings. They do have a win over Big XII favorite Utah to their credit. If this were being played in Tucson, I might pick Arizona, but I think the Cougars keep their record unblemished. BYU wins.
Ohio @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas lead the series 27-6-1, including wins in the 2006 and 2009 MAC Championship Games, and have won 6 of the last 7 (since 2013), but the Bobcats won 34-20 last year. CMU is off to a 3-2 start with wins over SDSU and Ball St, and losses to a good Illinois team and a bad FIU. They've been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, scoring anywhere from 9 to 66 points, while allowing 10 to 52 points. Ohio is also 3-2, with wins over South Alabama and Akron, and losses at Syracuse and Kentucky. Neither their offense nor defense is as good as CMU's, but they are a bit more consistent: offense has scored between 6 and 30 points, while the defense has allowed between 6 and 41 (but no more than 20 vs G5 opponents). Ohio wins a close one, maybe on a late FG.
Mississippi State @ Georgia- These teams 1st played in 1914 (MSU won 9-0), and have been in the same conference since 1921 (1st the Southern, then the SEC), and yet this is only their 27th meeting, as UGA leads 20-6, winning the last 4 (since 2011), and 13 of the last 14 (since 1975). They didn't have their 2nd meeting until 1950, with the MSU Bulldogs winning 2 of the 3 between 1950 and 1956, but MSU has won only 3 times more- 1970, 1974, and 2010, and their only 2 wins in Athens were in 1914 and 1956, meaning they have lost the last 11 played Between the Hedges. Oh, and they also lost 2 games played in Atlanta in 1959 and 1961. The Dawgs have been a little inconsistent this year, much more so than usual, as they have been slow starters offensively and defensively in just about every game, but have played much better in the 2nd half of games. MSU still has not beaten an FBS opponent, and three of their four losses were by at least 17 points. Athens Bulldogs win.
San Jose State @ Colorado State- The Rams lead the series 7-5, winning 4 of the last 5 (since 2014), but the Spartans won 28-16 in 2022, their last meeting. In games played this century (2011 was their 1st meeting since 1997), the series is tied at 4 wins apiece. Except for their opener against Texas, CSU has actually played pretty well, taking Oregon State to 2 OTs before falling last week. SJSU is a surprising 4-1, with their only loss being to Washington State, also in 2 OTs. This will be CSU's 1st conference game of the season, as they are the last team to begin conference play. This could go either way, and the Spartans are only 2-4 in Fort Collins, but Spartans win.
Southern Miss @ ULM- The Golden Eagles lead the series 6-2, winning each of the last 2 years in this series that started in 1982. This will be only the 3rd time these teams will play in Monroe, with USM winning both of the previous games played there. The Warhawks got their wins in 1987 and 2018, both times in Hattiesburg. ULM has already doubled their win total from last year, and is the only team in the SBC at 2-0, with a win at Troy and an upset of JMU at home. Their only loss is to current #1 Texas. The Eagles have yet to defeat an FBS team, so they will be hoping to catch the Warhawks resting on their laurels, but so far, their closest game was a 10-point loss to Louisiana last week. ULM wins.
Florida @ Tennessee- This used to be THE game- back in the 1990s- and it was usually the conference opener for both teams. These teams didn't play much before 1990, even meeting in the 1969 Gator Bowl, but they've met every year since. UT won the 1st 10 contests, between 1916 and 1953, then 3 of 5 between 1954 and 1971 (including the loss in the '69 Gator Bowl), and then the next 4 between 1976 and 1985, so the Vols led 17-5 before the teams were forced together into the SEC East. Since then, the Gators have mostly dominated, as they lead 32-21 overall, winning 17 of the last 19, including 29-16 last year. The Volunteers just suffered their 1st loss of the season last week against Arkansas, so they desperately need a win to stay in the SEC and CFP race, so they certainly have no excuse for looking ahead to Alabama next week, but their offense really needs to improve if they hope to get past a UF defense that's pretty good (the UF offense isn't bad, either). At 3-2 and 1-1 in the SEC, the Gators are very much in the thick of things, and a win in Knoxville could thrust them back into contention. However, the Volunteers won the last time this game was played at home, and has won 2 of the last 4 played here. UT wins, but the Gators will make it tough on them.
Washington State @ Fresno State- The Cougars lead this series 3-2, but they haven't met in the regular season since 1994, with the Bulldogs winning in the 2022 LA Bowl. FSU is 3-2, with losses at Michigan and UNLV, but they are 1-1 in the MWC. WSU is is 4-1, losing to Boise State, but they have a win over Washington, and were off last week. Wazzu wins in only the 2nd meeting in Fresno.
Arkansas State @ Texas State- The Red Wolves lead this series 7-4, winning 77-31 last year, but the Bobcats have won 3 of the last 4. ASU is 3-2 with losses at Michigan and Iowa State, and they are 1-0 in the SBC. TSU is also 3-2, with losses to Arizona State and Sam Houston by a combined 4 points, and wins over UTSA and at Troy. This should be a close game that will help shape the outcome of the SBC West race. Bobcats win at home.
North Texas @ FAU- The Owls lead the series 8-6, winning in the 2017 CUSA Championship Game, but the Mean Green have won the last 2, and 6 of the last 8 (since 2010). That means FAU won the 1st 6 meetings. The Owls are 4-1 in games played in Florida (Boca Raton, Ft. Lauderdale, and Miami), but at 2-3/0-1, not where they were expected or hoped to be at this point in the season. UNT is 4-1/1-0, with their only loss at Texas Tech. North Texas wins.
UTSA @ Rice- The Roadrunners lead this series 8-3, with the Owls winning the 1st 3, and UTSA winning the last 8. Both teams have had hugely disappointing seasons so far at a combined 3-7 and 0-3 in the AAC. Rice hasn't been competitive in most of their games, except in their victory over an FCS squad, but the Roadrunners have lost all 3 of their games by at least 10 points, and their 2 wins were over an FCS team (Houston Christian), and a team that was FCS last year (Kennesaw State). You can flip a coin, because I have no idea which team will be less bad on this particular day. UTSA wins, I guess.
Ohio State @ Oregon- This is the Game of the Day, a powerhouse matchup between 2 undefeated teams fighting for conference supremacy. The Buckeyes lead this series 9-1, including wins in the 1958 Rose Bowl, the 2010 Rose Bowl, and in the inaugural National Championship Game in January of 2015. In between, they had wins in 1961, 1962, 1967, 1968, 1983, and 1987, but only in 1967 was this game played in Eugene. The Ducks got their lone win in 2021 in Columbus. This will be the 1st time either team will face a decent opponent this season, though OSU did defeat Iowa last week, and UO beat rival Oregon State earlier, with both contests being routs. The Buckeyes are winning their games by an average of 39.2 ppg, while the Ducks are winning by 18 ppg. OSU hasn't allowed any team more than 14 points, allowing less than 7 ppg, but their offensive output has steadily decreased the last few weeks, from a high of 56 points in week 2 to 35 points last week. UO has been pretty steady in their offensive output, and except for 34 points allowed to Boise State, haven't allowed more than 14 to any other opponent. Oregon wins a close, low scoring game at home in Nike-ville.
Ole Miss @ LSU- The Tigers lead the series 65-42-4, but the Rebels have won 2 of the last 3, including 55-49 last year. Ole Miss even won in the 1960 Sugar Bowl (21-0), but they haven't won in Baton Rouge since 2008, losing their last 7 there, and 10 of the last 11. The Rebels bounced back nicely last week after their loss to Kentucky 2 weeks ago, but their offense hasn't really recovered. However, the Rebel defense has yet to allow more than 20 points to any opponent (UK scored 20), and have held 4 foes to 6 points or less. The Bayou Bengals haven't lost since their season opening face plant against USC, with their offense thriving, averaging 38 ppg since, and while their defense has looked good against lesser teams, they allowed 33 to South Carolina, a team Ole Miss held to 3 points. This should be an excellent game, but I think the Rebels pull it out, getting their 1st win in Baton Rouge in a while.
Oregon State @ Nevada- The Beavers lead the series 3-1, winning games in 1903, 1998, and 1999, but the Wolf Pack won the most recent matchup, 37-35 in 2018, and are 1-1 in Reno. At 2-4, Nevada has already matched last year's 2 wins, and 3 of their 4 losses have been by 5 points or less, so they are definitely improved. But OSU still harbors (long shot) hopes of making the CFP, and can't afford a letdown. Beavers win.
Appalachian State @ Louisiana- The Mountaineers won the 1st 8 meetings in this rivalry, including in the 2018 and 2019 SBC Championship Game, but the Ragin' Cajuns have won the last 3, including in the 2021 SBC CG. ASU, the preseason favorite for winning the Sun Belt, has had a rough start to the season, and at 2-3/0-2, are the only team in the SBC with 2 losses. In contrast, Louisiana is 4-1 with an 8-point loss to Tulane, and are 1-0 in the conference, and they have a win over Wake Forest. UL wins.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky- The Wildcats lead the series 49-43-4, winning 7 of the last 8, including 45-28 last year, but the Commodores won 24-21 the last time they played in Lexington. This has been a series of alternating dominances, which Vandy started with a 16-0-1 run from their 1st meeting in 1896 to 1938, followed by a 3-1-1 Vandy era. From 1946 to 1959, it was nearly even, with UK holding a 5-4-1 edge, but then the Wildcats took over in 1960, going 7-0-1, followed by 3 Vandy wins, before going full UK with a long 16-4 run through 1990, and after 5 straight wins by the Dores, UK again took over, winning 12 of the next 15, before Vandy's last run of 4 out of 5. The big key to this game is how the Commodores react to their huge upset win over Alabama, but the Wildcats are coming off of their own big upset of Ole Miss (though they were off last week). Years ago, this used to be the game to decide which team stayed out of last place, but this year will help decide which team gets to stay in the race. Vandy has the better offense, but Kentucky has the (much) better defense. UK wins because of their defense.
Iowa State @ West Virginia- The Mountaineers lead the series 6-5, and 3-2 in Morgantown, winning the last time played here, but the Cyclones have won 4 of the last 5, including 31-14 last year. This year, WVU has looked good at times, in wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas, and not so good in others- losses to Penn State and Pitt- but they are 2-1 at home. ISU is 5-0, with their defense holding every opponent to 21 points or less, and 3 to 7 points or less, but their offense has also been explosive at times, scoring 43 and 52 within the last 3 games. Cyclones win.
Syracuse @ NC State- The Wolfpack lead this series 13-3, winning 7 of the last 9, but the Orange won the last meeting in 2022. Syracuse has only won once in Raleigh, in 2013, but at 4-1/1-1, are in much better position than the Wolf Pack at 3-3/0-2. The Orange wins, for the 2nd time in a row.
Air Force @ New Mexico- The Falcons lead the series 26-14, winning the last 5, but the Lobos have won 3 of the last 5 played in Albuquerque. UNM is only 1-4, and 0-2 in the MWC, but they are coming out of their off week on a high after defeating rival New Mexico State 50-40. Air Force is also 1-4, only 0-1 in the MWC, but their win is against an FCS team in their opener, and every loss has been by double digits. The problem has mostly been the offense, as they have only scored as many as 21 points once, and that was in their win, as they've been held to 7 or less in 3 games. They should get more than 7 against the Lobos, but I think they lose because UNM will score more than 20. Lobos win.
Marshall @ Georgia Southern- This is a game between 2 of the 3 teams tied for 1st in the SBC East at 1-0. The Thundering Herd lead this series 6-2, winning the last 6, but 6 of the 8 games occurred between 1989 and 1996. Both teams are 3-2, with GSU losing to Boise State and Ole Miss and beating Ga State and Nevada, both on the road. Marshall has losses at Va Tech and Ohio State, and wins over WMU and App State. The Eagles are coming out of an off week, but I think the Herd is a better team. Marshall wins a close one on the road.
Minnesota @ UCLA- In this long and storied rivalry, the Golden Gophers have 2 wins, in the 1960 Rose Bowl and in 1977 in Minneapolis, and the Bruins have 1 win, in 1978 in Los Angeles. This will be their 1st time meeting as members of the same conference. Minnesota is 3-3, and 1-2 in the Big Ten with a win over USC, and losses to UNC, Iowa, and at Michigan, their only road game so far. UCLA is 1-4 and 0-3 in the conference, with a win at Hawaii, and losses to Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and at Penn State, all by at least 16 points each. And still I see this as a coin flip. Give me the Gophers on the road.
Kansas State @ Colorado- These old Big Eight and Big XII foes are back at it in the newly reconstituted Big XII. The Buffaloes lead this series 45-20-1, winning 6 of the last 10, but they haven't played since 2010. Both teams were off last week. The Wildcats are 4-1, and 1-1 in the conference, with their loss to BYU (by 29) and wins over Tulane, Arizona (though it doesn't count in the standings), and Oklahoma State. The Buffs are also 4-1, with their loss to Nebraska, but they are 2-0 in the Big XII with wins over Baylor and at UCF. This is a game to try to keep pace with the other frontrunners in the conference, so it's hugely important within the Big XII, and quite possibly for the CFP as well, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. I think CU is much improved, but KSU is just better, on both sides of the ball. Wildcats win, as long as they avoid turnovers, penalties, and injuries.
Boise State @ Hawaii- The Broncos lead the series 15-3, winning the last 9, including in the 2020 MWC Championship game, but all 3 losses have come in Honolulu (in 1996, 1999, and 2007). The Rainbow Warriors have 2 wins, but both were against FCS outfits, but they did play UCLA and SDSU within 3 points each. BSU is 4-1, with a 3-point loss to Oregon. Broncos win big.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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