College Football Preview Part XXI- Independents and Pac 12

By

Welcome Back!

Today I continue my conference previews. These previews will attempt to predict how each conference finishes, but realize that doing so is extremely difficult, especially since no conference has a balanced schedule. Also, whatever the conferences come up with in the form of tiebreakers will make a huge difference, as all but the Sun Belt have done away with divisions. In addition, these predictions aren't my personal opinion; they are the result of the formula/model/statistical analysis/whatever. I will sometimes mention my thoughts in the narratives below the predictions.

The list of records for 3-years, 6-years, and 10 years are conference records only, and do not include any results for the conference championship games. You will notice that the teams haven't all played the same number of games, especially when considering they should have. This is because that teams played a varied number of games in 2020, and that sometimes games get cancelled (see Virginia in 2022, for example). In the case of teams switching conferences, I counted the record from their previous conference. Independent teams joining a conference were counted with their full record (UMass), but FCS teams moving up enter with 0-0 records.

In case you are interested, I get all of my information from various sources. I use the 3 main preview magazines (Phil Steele, Lindy's, and Athlon), but I also use many different websites, including (but not limited to): Google, Winsipedia, sports-reference.com, ESPN.com, TeamRankings.com, NCAA.com, and, of course, individual school websites.

I don't have a staff- it's just me- so all of the research is my own from these various sources (it doesn't help when they contradict each other...), so any mistakes are mine. I also don't have an editor/proofreader, so you are likely to find several (many? I hope not) typos, such as commas where periods should be (or vice versa), a misspelled or missing word, doubled words ("the the" in the middle of a sentence, for example), etc. 

Finally, feel free to leave a comment. Interacting is much of the fun! Of course, if you know me personally, feel free to just text. I'll get that a lot quicker.

So, on with the previews!


Independents


3-Year History


Notre Dame 33-9/.785/1st

UConn 18-20/.474/2nd 


6-Year History


Notre Dame 65-15/.813/1st

UConn 19-31/.380/2nd



10-Year History


Notre Dame 101-30/.771/1st

UConn N/A 



Predicted Finish:


  1. Notre Dame

  2. UConn


Conference Champion: N/A


Chances to make the playoff: Notre Dame is likely to get in any time they can win 10 games, especially with 10 P4 opponents (other 2 are no slouches, either- Boise State and Navy were a combined 22-5 last year). There aren’t many challenges on the Irish’s schedule, as most of their foes are middle-of-the-pack or lower in their respective conferences: 2 from the SEC, 2 from the Big Ten, and 6 from the ACC. UConn would have to go undefeated, and even if they did, their schedule strength probably wouldn’t be enough to get them in unless either Boston College and Syracuse, their only two P4 opponents, make it into the ACC CG.

Don’t be surprised if… the Irish go undefeated, as there seems to be a “cupcake” or off week before every big game

I’m not convinced… UConn will be able to repeat their 9 wins from last year even though their schedule is a bit easier than last year’s.




Pac 12


3-Year History


OSU 12-7/.632/1st

WSU 6-13/.316/2nd


6-Year History


OSU 23-21/.523/1st

WSU 16-25/.390/2nd


10-Year History


WSU 42-35/.545/1st

OSU 27-53/.338/2nd


Predicted Finish:


  1. Oregon State

  2. Washington State


Conference Champion:  Oregon State, though it would take 2 wins over the Cougars


Chances to make the playoff: Neither team has a good enough strength of schedule to get in with 2+ losses, but a win over Oregon coupled with going 10-1 or 11-0 in other games could be enough to get the Beavers in. And if the Cougars could go undefeated, that would mean wins over Washington and Ole Miss, with the latter on the road.

Don’t be surprised if… everyone mostly ignores what remains of the Pac 12.


I’m not convinced… either team will make it to a bowl this year.



Make sure you come back tomorrow as I continue my previews!


Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!   

Comments

Post a Comment

Most Popular Posts

Patriots' Day 2025

By
Today, I attended just my second protest. I've been on this Earth for more than 61 years, and had seen protests, but had only participated once- after George Floyd was murdered. But this was my first political protest. I had some idea of what to expect, but was unsure about how I would feel. I also had no idea what reactions I would get as cars crawled (and sometimes sped) past us.  First, a little background. I am very new to political activism. For many years, I have kept to the admonition of not discussing religion or politics in public. As a public school teacher, I have rarely discussed either subject, except in the context of educating students. For example, when discussing western music history, you cannot leave out the role of the Catholic Church (though I am not Catholic). And when discussing music from the 60s and 70s, protest songs (anti-Vietnam War, for example) cannot be ignored. But this was always in the context of history. I would venture to guess that the students ...
Read more

Paul's Picks Week 2

By
Welcome Back! Last week was a very good week as I finished with an 84-12 record, a winning percentage of 87.5%. It would have been much better if I hadn't missed 3 of the last 4!  I expected to do well last week because of all the FBS vs FCS games, and there are plenty more this week, though not as many. There are 78 games in total this week, so I'm sure my percentage will be coming down. Overall, I am 87-13, a percentage I can figure out in my head as 87%. There is absolutely no way I can maintain that, so I am still keeping my "pie-in-the-sky" goal at 80%, and my "realistic" goal at 75%. So... on with the picks! Friday, September 6 Western Illinois @ Indiana - The Hoosiers defeated the Leathernecks 27-17 back in 2012. The margin of victory in this one will be higher. IU wins. BYU @ SMU - The Cougars lead the Mustangs 4-0 in this series, including wins in the 1980 Holiday Bowl (46-45 in one of the greatest comebacks in bowl history) and in the 2022 New Mexi...
Read more

Week 14 Picks

By
This is the last week of the regular season, and includes the conference championship games.  Last week, I was 41-21, for a pretty awful 66.1%, which brings me to 608-210, dropping me below 75% to 74.3%.  I need to do well this week and in the bowls, which typically are difficult to predict, due to layoffs, coaching changes, injuries, etc.  There are only a few games this week, so let's get to it! USC over Stanford (PAC12CG)- USC has been riding high since midseason, and defeated Stanford when Bryce Love was healthy.  The Trojans will keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a close victory, and hope for massive chaos elsewhere. FIU over UMass - The Minutemen have played pretty well this year, though their record doesn't show it.  However, they've won 4 of their last 5 and will certainly give the Panthers all they can handle. UCF over Memphis (AACCG)- The Golden Knights defeated the Tigers 40-13 on September 30, which was Memphis' only loss on the year....
Read more