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TWIF Notes 9-25-23

Welcome Back! What another exciting weekend of games! We had a lot of exciting matchups, with upsets, routs, and games that went into one or more OTs. Out of 133 teams, 130 participated, with only Navy, North Texas, and ULM taking the weekend off. Of those 130 teams, just 4 played an FCS team, meaning there were 63 FBS vs FBS games.  That's a lot of games to review. So let's get to the recaps! FBS Teams who Defeated FCS Teams Like They Should Have Miami, OH defeated Delaware State 62-20. East Carolina defeated Gardner-Webb 44-0. Tulane defeated Nicholls 36-7. FBS Teams Who Struggled With FCS Teams ODU  struggled to get by a winless Texas A&M-Commerce 10-9, as the game was a scoreless tie at halftime. FBS Teams Who Lost To FCS Teams There were no losses to FCS teams this week! FBS vs FBS Games Georgia State  is 4-0 for the 1st time ever after they defeated Coastal Carolina 30-17, and the Panthers have tied their longest ever winning streak at 4 games, which has now ...

Paul's Picks 2023 Week 4

Welcome Back! Last week, I was once again much better than usual, as I was 63-12, or 84.0% correct. Overall, I am 211-43, or 83.1%, an increase of 0.4% from last week! I typically finish around 73%, but my goal is always to finish at or above 75%. This week, there are a lot of conference matchups, and only a very few games against FCS opponents- 67 games overall. Which means the games are much harder to predict, so my accuracy is likely to drop. Oh well; I'll enjoy being 80+% for as long as it lasts! Now... on with the picks! Thursday, September 21 Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina - The series is tied at 3 wins apiece, but the odd part is that no team has won 2 in a row, and the road team has won every game! Will that continue this year? The strength of the Panthers has been their running game, and that has been the weakness (so far) for the Chanticleers, as they have struggled to stop the run. And while GSU hasn't done well in pass defense, passing hasn't been the strength...

Odds and Ends 9-20-23

Welcome Back! Yesterday, I presented my Power Rankings. New this year is points added based on how the teams are doing statistically. So far, these are the teams playing the best offensively and defensively combined based on my analysis. I'll let you decide if each team is really this good, or if this is the result of them playing poor competition. 1. Syracuse 2. Notre Dame 3. UCF 4. Ohio State 5. Oregon 6. Oklahoma 7. UCLA 8. Miami, FL 9. Clemson 10. Penn State Inter-conference results  For these purposes, all Independents (except Notre Dame) are considered G5.  Here are the results of all out-of-conference games. Overall 1) Pac 12 29-5 .852 2) SEC 29-8 .783 3) Big Ten 25-8 .758 4) ACC 25-10 .714 5) Big 12 28-13 .683 6) SBC 24-12 .667 7) Independents 9-7 .563 8) CUSA 13-11 .542 9) AAC 18-22 .450 10) MAC 16-21 .432 11) MWC 15-22 .405 12) FCS 4-98 .039 The Pac 12 remains in 1st place winning an astonishing 85% of their OOC games (but 1-2 against the SEC), but the SEC moves past...

Power Rankings 9-19-23

Welcome Back! With almost every team playing this week, there was a lot more movement in the rankings. In addition, I have added some new statistical factors into the rankings. However, the effect of these are mitigated by my preseason numbers, which is fortunate because so many teams have played FCS opponents that the statistics could be skewed somewhat. There is some effect, as you will notice when you see that some teams that lost may have moved up (or stayed the same) while others that won may have moved down (or stayed the same). Those teams usually moved just 1-4 places, and I would consider these adjustments, or corrections, for perhaps being misplaced in the preseason rankings. At any rate, I am less concerned with being correct  right now  than I am with being correct at the end of the season. As most of you realize, you could probably take the teams listed from about #13 to #65 or so, place them in a hat and draw the names out randomly and probably be just as accurat...