Paul's Picks 2023 Week 4
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was once again much better than usual, as I was 63-12, or 84.0% correct. Overall, I am 211-43, or 83.1%, an increase of 0.4% from last week! I typically finish around 73%, but my goal is always to finish at or above 75%.
This week, there are a lot of conference matchups, and only a very few games against FCS opponents- 67 games overall. Which means the games are much harder to predict, so my accuracy is likely to drop. Oh well; I'll enjoy being 80+% for as long as it lasts!
Now... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 21
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina- The series is tied at 3 wins apiece, but the odd part is that no team has won 2 in a row, and the road team has won every game! Will that continue this year? The strength of the Panthers has been their running game, and that has been the weakness (so far) for the Chanticleers, as they have struggled to stop the run. And while GSU hasn't done well in pass defense, passing hasn't been the strength of CCU's offense. This game seems tailor made for a GSU win. Panthers pull the mild upset.
Friday, September 22
Wisconsin @ Purdue- The Badgers lead the series 52-29-8, and have won the last 16 (since 2004). In fact, the Boilermakers haven't beaten UW in West Lafayette since 1997, as their 2 wins in 2000 and 2003 were both in Madison. The teams 1st played in 1892, and they played every year from 1925-1947, then beginning in 1950, they would play in spurts, usually of 10+ years, but sometimes just 2 or 4 years. Purdue had a few stretches of dominance in the series: 1928-1939, when they were 7-2-3; 1964-1980, when they were 9-3-1; and 1987-2003, when they were 7-5-1 (that stretch was less dominant). Anyway, I don't think this is the year they break their long losing streak, as their defense has given up 30+ twice, and Wisconsin has scored 30+ twice. Badgers win.
NC State @ Virginia- The Wolfpack lead the series 36-22-1, and have won the last 2, and 4 of the last 5, including the last 2 played in Charlottesville. The Cavaliers probably can't wait until their game against William & Mary on Oct 7, as that will probably be their 1st realistic chance at a win this year, though they could give Boston College a good game next week (unfortunately, that game is on the road). Maybe Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech at home? At any rate, I don't see much chance in this one. NC State wins big.
Boise State @ San Diego State- This series is tied at 4 wins each, with the Broncos winning 35-13 last year, but the Aztecs winning 2 of the last 3. The series is also tied in San Diego at 2 wins apiece. Boise State desperately need this win, as they have yet to get one against an FBS opponent, and their season is in danger of going down in flames, especially if they start the conference slate 0-1. SDSU is 2-2, but their 2 losses were to 2 Pac 12 teams that are currently undefeated and ranked in the AP Poll. However, the Aztecs seem to be a little less potent than in years past on both offense and defense, and with this game, and the one next week at Air Force, their season could go down the drain fast. But if they can split these 2, then they have a chance to make the MWC Championship Game as the rest of their conference schedule is quite easy (no Wyoming) until they get to Fresno State in their closer on Nov 25. This will be an exciting game, but I think the Broncos win this on the road.
Air Force @ San Jose State- The Falcons lead the series 4-2, and have won 3 of the last 4, but the Spartans won 17-6 the last time they played in 2020. AFA is already 1-0 in the Mountain West, and they have played well on both offense and defense so far. SJSU is only 1-3, but they have losses to USC, Oregon State, and by 4 to a very good Toledo. Expect a high scoring affair, and those typically favor the Falcons. AFA wins.
Saturday, September 23
Rutgers @ Maryland- The Wolverines lead the series 8-1, winning the last 8, as the 2 teams have played each of the last 9 years (since Rutgers joined the Big Ten in 2014). Though both teams come in at 3-0, one of these teams is not like the other, although the Scarlet Knights have actually been impressive, winning all 3 by at least 17 points each, with a conference win, a win over Temple of the AAC, and a win over a fellow P5 team from the ACC (Virginia Tech), which is more than can be said for their counterparts, who have wins over an 0-3 AAC team, a MWC team, and a MAC team. Will this be an actual test for the Wolverines? We shall see, but Coach Harbaugh returns to the sidelines, and that should give a lift to his team. UM wins, but it could be close for a while. Or not.
FSU @ Clemson-The Seminoles lead the series 20-15, but the Tigers have won the last 7, and 12 of the last 17 (since 2005). FSU hasn't won in Clemson since 2013, their last National Championship year. The Noles have the longest winning streak in the series, with 11 straight from 1992-2002, and before they joined the ACC in '92, FSU led the series 3-2, with wins in 1970, 1975, and 1988, and losses in 1976 and 1989. Since losing to Duke in their opener, Clemson appears to have turned things around, blowing out 2 lesser opponents, but this is a whole new challenge, and will show if they have really made progress, or if it's all an illusion. FSU, on the other hand has been the exact opposite. After a huge win over LSU in their opener, and a throttling of Southern Miss, they then struggled to get by Boston College in their 1st true road game. Was that just a team taking another one lightly, or one showing vulnerabilities? While a loss won't knock either team out of the ACC Championship Game race, it would be much more devastating for the Tigers, as it would virtually eliminate them from CFP consideration. Expect a close game. Clemson wins at home in an upset.
Oklahoma @ Cincinnati- These teams have actually played before, with the Sooners winning both matchups, in 2008 and 2010. Before the Bearcats laid an egg last week against Miami, OH, I was seriously considering them for the upset in their 1st ever conference game as a member of the Big 12, but not anymore. OU wins.
Army @ Syracuse- The Orange lead the series 11-10, winning the last 3, and 7 of the last 8, but the teams haven't played each other since 1996. The Black Knights won 6 of the 1st 7 in the series, between 1899-1912, and between 1919 and 1962, it was split evenly at 3-3, before the most recent stretch of Syracuse dominance began in 1964. The Orange are 3-0 for the 2nd year in a row, and have scored at least 35 points in each game while holding 2 foes to 7 points or less. After scoring only 13 in their opening loss to ULM, Army has scored 94 combined points in their next 2 games. This should be a fun matchup, especially with the Black Knights throwing more than they have in years. Syracuse wins.
Auburn @ Texas A&M- The Aggies lead the series 7-6, and have won 2 of the last 3, but the Tigers have won 4 of the last 6, and won 13-10 last year, and is 4-1 in College Station (loss was in 2021). The teams 1st played in 1911 (TAMU won 16-0), but they didn't play again until the 1986 Cotton Bowl, won 36-16 by the Aggies. All of the other meetings have been since TAMU joined the SEC in 2012. The Plainsmen have started the season 3-0, but haven't really played anyone, and struggled in their 1st road trip to Cal. The Aggies are 2-1, blowing out 2 G5 teams, but losing on the road to Miami, FL. It's really hard to get a gauge on either of these teams, but I'll go with the home team. Texas A&M edges out the War Eagles.
WKU @ Troy- The Trojans lead the series 10-2-1, winning the last 2, but the Hilltoppers won the 2 before that. The teams tied in their initial meeting, in 1976, then played 4 times between 1991-1995, then every year from 2007-2013 (WKU was in the Sun Belt from 2009-2013), and then played last year, a 34-27 Troy win in Bowling Green. The Trojans are only 3-1-1 in Troy in the series, losing the most recent meeting in 2012, with the other 8 games all being played in Bowling Green. This year, the Trojans are off to a 1-2 start, losing to Kansas State on the road and to JMU at home, as they are only averaging 13.5 ppg against FBS foes while giving up 29 ppg. WKU is 2-1, with a win over USF and a blowout loss to Ohio State, but they have averaged 25.5 ppg in their FBS contests while allowing 43.5 ppg. Sounds like the resistible force going against the moveable object! I usually go with the home team in matchups that appear even, but the Hilltoppers pull the mild upset.
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt- The Wildcats lead the series 48-43-4, winning 6 of the last 7, but Vandy won last year in Lexington. However, the Commodores haven't defeated the Cats in Nashville since 2015, losing the last 3 played here, as Vandy is one of only 3 SEC teams UK has an all-time winning record against (newcomers Missouri and Arkansas are the others), but they are tied with Miss State. This year, the Dores are 2-2, losing the last 2 to Wake Forest and UNLV, both on the road, but they are 2-0 at home. UK is one of 3 remaining undefeated SEC East teams (the SEC West only has 2), and they should remain that way. Wildcats win.
Virginia Tech @ Marshall- The Hokies lead the series 11-2, winning the last 9, from 1951-2018. The Thundering Herd won their games in 1939 and 1940, with VT winning the other 2 in 1913 and 1914. The Hokies are 1-2, beating ODU in the opener, then losing to Purdue and Rutgers. Marshall is only 2-0, but had an off week last week, and so should be extra prepared for this game. Marshall wins.
SMU @ TCU- The Horned Frogs lead the series between these old Southwest Conference foes 52-42-7 in the Battle for the Iron Skillet, winning 42-34 last year in Dallas, but the Mustangs have won 2 of the last 3. However, the Frogs have dominated since 1999, winning 17 out of 21 games played to take over the lead in the series. From 1966-1986, the Ponies won 19 of 21, including 15 in a row from 1972-1986, but from 1947-1965, TCU was 14-2-3 against SMU. As you can see, this has been a series of long periods of dominance, with several shorter winning streaks sprinkled in, in this series that began in 1915. SMU is 2-1 this year, with a win over La Tech at home and a 17-point loss to Oklahoma on the road. TCU is also 2-1with a 23-point win over Houston on the road and a 3-point loss to Colorado at home. Rivalry games are always intense, and usually close, especially when the teams are evenly or nearly evenly matched. TCU wins.
Tulsa @ Northern Illinois- The Golden Hurricane defeated the Huskies 38-35 last year in Tulsa the only time these teams have met on the gridiron. Tulsa is 1-2 with an FCS win and 2 blowout losses to Washington and Oklahoma. NIU is also 1-2 with an upset win over Boston College in OT, and losses to an FCS team and to Nebraska. Flip a coin. Tulsa wins a close one.
Western Michigan @ Toledo- The Rockets lead the series 45-32, and have won 4 of the last 6, and 9 of the last 13, but the Broncos have won 2 of the last 3, including 20-14 last year. However, WMU has lost 3 straight in Toledo, last winning there in 2015, and is 1 for their last 6 there. The Rockets have a win over San Jose State and a 2-point loss to Illinois on the road on their resume'. The Broncos have an FCS win and 2 blowout losses to Syracuse and Iowa, both on the road, on theirs. Toledo wins.
Georgia Southern @ Ball State- The Eagles defeated the Cardinals 34-23 last year in Statesboro, so this is the return engagement in Muncie. BSU is 1-2, losing big to 2 SEC teams, then posting a win over an FCS opponent. GS is 2-1, and has an FCS win and a win over UAB, with their loss last week by a closer-than-the-score-would-indicate 35-14 to Wisconsin. Eagles soar and take down the Cardinals.
Ole Miss @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide leads the series by a dominant 54-10-2, winning the last 7, and 17 of the last 19. The series record includes 1 win vacated by Ole Miss, 3 wins vacated by Alabama, 1 forfeit by the Tide, and a 12-7 Bama win in the 1964 Sugar Bowl. Mississippi actually won the 1st meeting, in 1894, and then the 7th meeting in 1910, but wouldn't win again until 1968, after the Tide had won 18 in a row, mostly between 1912 and 1944 (they didn't play at all between 1945 and 1964). The Rebels are one of 2 SEC West teams that are still undefeated, and they are one of the few SEC teams that have actually looked impressive all 3 games. Bama, on the other hand, has been the source of much angst in the college football world, and many people are lamenting (or celebrating) their impending demise, but I'm not convinced of that at all. Jalen Milroe is a talented QB who just needs to have his skills utilized to his (and the team's) maximum benefit, but the question is whether new OC Tommy Rees is capable of doing that. The Rebs haven't won in Tuscaloosa since 2015, and have only ever won twice there (the other time was in 1988, when they were coached by Billy Brewer). The Rebels have a great chance to win this, but I think the Tide finds a way to pull it out in the end, but it won't be pretty.
UCLA @ Utah- The Bruins lead the series 12-8, and won 42-32 last year, but the Utes have won 5 of the last 6 (since 2016). Since 2006, Utah leads the series 8-4 (Utah joined the Pac 12 in 2011); UCLA won all of the other games, played between 1933 and 1974. The Utes have won the last 3 played in Salt Lake City, and are 5-2 in the last 7 played at home in the series. Both teams are undefeated, with Utah beating Florida at home and Baylor on the road without star QB Cam Rising, but he is expected back this week. The Bruins have been flying a little under the radar, as their FBS wins are over Coastal Carolina and San Diego State, the latter on the road. This should be a terrific game, as Utah has allowed only 31 points in 3 games, and UCLA has given up only 30. But the Utes have played the tougher schedule. Utah wins a close one.
Colorado @ Oregon- The Ducks lead the series 15-9, winning the last 3, and 9 of the last 10 (since 2002). The Buffaloes won 5 of the 1st 7 played, between 1949 and 1978, and the 2 teams have met twice in a bowl game, with the Buffs winning the 1996 Cotton Bowl 38-6 and the Ducks winning the 2002 Fiesta Bowl 38-16. Both teams are 3-0, and both teams have been scoring machines, but UO has allowed 47 points in its 3 games while CU has allowed 91 points, albeit against tougher competition. Expect both teams to score a lot of points, but the Ducks will win their 3rd straight in Eugene.
Duke @ UConn- The Huskies lead the series 2-0, winning in 2004 in East Hartford and in 2007 in Durham. However, the Blue Devils are 3-0 this year with a win over Clemson. UConn is 0-3 with a loss to FIU. Duke wins big.
Miami, FL @ Temple- The Owls won the very 1st time these teams met, in 1930, but the Hurricanes have won the other 13 times they have played, from 1992-2005 (they were in the Big East together from 1991-2003). Temple is 2-1, with a narrow win over Akron, and hasn't beaten a P5 team since defeating Georgia Tech in 2019 (does that count?). Miami is 3-0. Hurricanes win easily.
FAU @ Illinois- The Illini will even their record at 2-2 when they defeat the Owls in this 1st ever meeting between the 2 schools.
Maryland @ Michigan State- The Spartans lead the series 10-3, and it is 6-2 since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten in 2014, but Maryland won 27-13 last year, and have won 2 of the last 3 played in College Park. The other 5 games were played between 1944 and 1950, and I have no idea why they would have played 5 times in those 7 years, or why they played twice in 1944. Anyway, MSU is a mess, Maryland is not. Terps win and go 4-0 for the 2nd time in the last 3 years.
La Tech @ Nebraska- This will be the 3rd time these teams have met, all in Lincoln, and the Cornhuskers have won the 1st 2, in 1998 and in 2002. While the Bulldogs are 2-2, it appears Nebraska is at least better than MAC and CUSA teams. Most of them anyway. Huskers win.
Boston College @ Louisville- The Cardinals lead the series 8-7, but the Eagles have won 4 of the last 6, including 34-33 last year. However, UL has won 4 of the last 5 played in Louisville, and they are having an outstanding start to the Jeff Brohm era. Cardinals win, but expect a battle.
BYU @ Kansas- The Jayhawks defeated the Cougars 23-20 in the 1992 Aloha Bowl in the only time the teams have met previously. This year, both teams are 3-0, with KU getting by their 2 FBS foes by a combined 15 points and BYU by 21 points, with each getting by a P5 and a G5 team. This is the official Big 12 opener for the Cougs, and they have a current 3-game road winning streak, while the Jayhawks have won their last 2 at home. Expect some scoring from both teams, but Kansas appears to have the slightly better defense. Jayhawks win a close one.
Texas Tech @ West Virginia- This series is tied 6-6, but the Red Raiders have won the last 4, including 48-10 last year, but lead only 6-5 since the Mountaineers joined the Big 12 in 2012. WVU won the only prior meeting, 7-6 in the 1938 Sun Bowl. Surprisingly, the Mountaineers come into this contest with the better record, 2-1 vs 1-2, with a win over Pitt at home and a loss to Penn State on the road, as TT has lost both of its FBS games- to Wyoming on the road and to Oregon at home. The WVU offense is only averaging 16 ppg against FBS foes and allowing 22 ppg; the Red Raiders are scoring plenty (31.5 ppg), but their defense is allowing a bit more, at 36.5 ppg. This has the potential to be a very close game, so I'm going with the home team, who has won 3 of their last 4 home games, in a mild upset. WVU wins.
New Mexico @ UMass- These teams are a combined 2-5, but the Minutemen defeated New Mexico State in their opener, who the Lobos just lost to. The transitive property doesn't always work in football, but that's a good place to start. UMass wins at home in this 1st ever meeting, as UNM has lost 9 straight road games.
Texas A&M-Commerce @ ODU- The Monarchs will put a Royal beatdown on the Lions in this 1st ever meeting.
Ohio @ Bowling Green- The Falcons lead the series 41-31-2, but the Bobcats have won 6 of the last 7, including 38-14 last year. Ohio could very well be 4-0 if QB Kurtis Rourke hadn't gotten injured in their opening loss to San Diego State. The Bobcats are coming off an upset win over Iowa State, and have held their last 3 opponents to 10 points or less each. BGSU has lost both of their FBS games, to Liberty and Michigan, both on the road, but have played respectably in each game, and defeated Ohio the last time the game was played in Bowling Green. Ohio wins, but I wouldn't be surprised by an upset.
Delaware State @ Miami, OH- The Redhawks will devour the Hornets in this 1st time meeting.
UTSA @ Tennessee- Both teams have had disappointing seasons so far, but in vastly different ways. The Volunteers were expected to challenge in the SEC East, and perhaps even for a berth in the CFP, but after a dominating opening win over Virginia, the Vols looked shaky in Week 2 vs an FCS foe, then got rocked in The Swamp against Florida. The Roadrunners are expected to win the new-look AAC, but are 1-2 in the early going, with a win over Texas State and losses to Houston and Army. UTSA Star QB Frank Harris missed the game against Army, and it's uncertain if he will play this weekend. UT has won 10 straight home games. Vols win, but if Harris plays, it could be interesting.
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State- The Cowboys lead the series, begun in 1926, 34-20-3, and have won 9 of the last 11, including 20-14 last year, but the Cyclones won the last time they met in Ames (though that broke a 4-game losing streak there). OSU suffered their 1st loss last week, by 26 points to South Alabama, but until then seemed to be playing well in their 1st 2 games. ISU has played well on defense, allowing only 15 ppg in FBS games, but have been horrific on offense, scoring only 10 ppg in those 2 games as their only win has come over an FCS school. Cowboys win, but don't expect a lot of scoring.
Rice @ USF- The Owls are 2-1, and the last time they started a season 3-1 was 2001, when they finished 8-4 under HC Ken Hatfield (in 2013 they started 2-2 and finished 10-4 under HC David Bailiff), so they have a chance to do something that hasn't been done there in a long time. The Bulls are 1-2 with a win over an FCS club and losses to WKU and Alabama, and they probably consider this one of their few chances at an FBS win this year, as they have only 1 FBS win since the 2019 season (beat Temple in 2021). Rice wins this 1st ever meeting, which should be the 1st of many since they are now in the same conference.
Eastern Michigan @ Jacksonville State- Both teams are 2-1with the Eagles losing to Minnesota and defeating UMass and the Gamecocks getting by UTEP but falling to Coastal Carolina. Neither team has done much offensively, but the defenses appear to be serviceable, so expect a low scoring game. EMU wins a close one, as they don't seem to play any other kind (8 of their last 16 games have been decided by 9 points or less).
Central Michigan @ South Alabama- The Jaguars upended the Chippewas 38-24 last year in Mount Pleasant in the 2 teams' only previous meeting. CMU is 1-2 with a narrow win over an FCS team and big losses to both Michigan State and Notre Dame on the road. USA is 2-1 with a loss to Tulane in New Orleans and a 26-point win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Jaguars win, assuming they don't have a big letdown and take the Chips too lightly.
Gardner-Webb @ East Carolina- The Pirates are 1-0 against the Runnin' Bulldogs, and should get their 1st win of the 2023 season against them.
Liberty @ FIU- The Flames defeated the Panthers 36-34 in 2020 in Lynchburg in their only other meeting. These teams are a combined 6-1, and Liberty has a chance to move to 2-0 in CUSA with the win. All 3 of their wins so far have been by double digits. FIU, on the other hand has a loss by 5 points (to La Tech) and wins by 2, 7, and 7 points. One more win would match last year's win total, but they won't get it this week. Flames win.
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest- The Yellow Jackets lead the series 23-8, winning the last 3 (since 2009) and 11 of the last 14 (since 1995), but they last played in 1917. WF's last win in the series was in the 2006 ACC Championship Game, and they haven't won in Winston-Salem since 1999 (have lost 3 straight there). However, the Demon Deacons are a much different team, but could be vulnerable to an upset, as it almost happened last week to ODU. GT played Louisville close in their opener, and hung with Ole Miss for a while last week, but ended up losing big. The potential for a Jacket win is there, but Wake Forest pulls off the win at home.
Arkansas @ LSU- The Tigers lead the series 43-23-2, and have won 6 of the last 7, including 13-10 last year, but the Razorbacks won the last time they played in Baton Rouge, in 2021, and in fact have split the last 4 there. The teams 1st played in 1901, and they played every year from 1906-1936 (except for 1918 due to WWI- or the flu- or something), and the next time they met was in the 1947 Cotton Bowl, where they played to a 0-0 tie. They played 4 straight years, from 1953-1956, met again in the 1966 Cotton Bowl (a 14-7 LSU win), but didn't meet again on the gridiron until Arkansas joined the SEC West in 1992, and the series is 20-11 in LSU's favor since then. The Hogs started this season 2-0, but then lost to BYU at home. LSU lost their opener in surprising fashion to FSU, and since then have cruised to 2 victories. Bayou Bengals win.
Oregon State @ Washington State- The Cougars lead the series 56-48-3, and had won 8 in a row until the Beavers prevailed 24-10 last year in Corvallis. OSU hasn't won on the Palouse since 2013. The teams 1st played in 1903, played again in 1905, and since 1910, have played near continuously, missing only 1918, 1925-26, 1943-44, 1987, 1997-98, and 2002, though they did play twice in 1945. Both teams are 3-0, with Wazzu having a signature win over Wisconsin, and OSU holding 2 Mountain West opponents to an average of 13 ppg. This is a classic matchup of a fantastic offense (WSU) against a stellar defense (OSU). Should be fun! Beavers win a close one.
Charlotte @ Florida- The Gators will chomp the 49ers into bits in this 1st ever meeting.
Sam Houston @ Houston- The Cougars are 4-2 vs the Bearkats, but are off to a rough start to the 2023 season, with an OT loss to Rice and a 13-point loss to rival TCU. SH is 0-2 in its inaugural season at the FBS level, but it has played admirably, losing to Air Force and to BYU by a combined 24 points. The problem for the Kats has been scoring, as they have just 3 points total in their 2 games, but their defense is giving up just 13.5 ppg. Sam Houston was off last week, so maybe they've figured out some things on offense but it won't be enough to beat Houston (what a tough way to start the season and your FBS life!). Cougars win.
Colorado State @ Middle Tennessee- The Blue Raiders defeated the Rams 34-19 in Fort Collins last year in their 1st meeting ever, and as long as the Rams aren't too spent from their rivalry game loss to Colorado last week, they should get the revenge win this year. CSU wins.
Arizona @ Stanford- The Cardinal lead the series 17-14, and have won the last 6 (since 2010), and 11 of the last 13 (since 2001), but theses teams haven't played since 2019. The series didn't begin until 1979, a year after the Wildcats joined what was then the Pac 8 and made it the Pac 10 (along with Arizona State). The Cats have lost 5 straight in Stanford, last winning in 2006. Stanford is 1-2, but has a loss to an FCS school. UA is 2-1, with an OT loss to Mississippi State. Arizona wins.
Nicholls @ Tulane- The Green Wave have won the only time these teams have met, and they should handle the Colonels again this time.
Appalachian State @ Wyoming- The teams have split their 2 meetings, with the Cowboys winning 53-7 in 2004 in Laramie and the Mountaineers winning 31-13 in Boone in 2015. Wyoming is 2-1 this year, with a signature win over Texas Tech in 2 OTs, and a closer-than-the-score-indicates 21-10 loss to Texas last week. App State is also 2-1with a win over ECU, and a loss in 2 OTs to North Carolina. This is one of those sneaky good games that is kinda flying under the radar because of all of the other great matchups this weekend. This is a tough one to pick so flip a coin and go with the home team. Cowboys win, but ASU keeps it close and makes it an entertaining game.
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State- The Golden Eagles lead the series 10-2, including a 20-19 win last year in Hattiesburg, and a 31-19 win in the 2005 New Orleans Bowl. 8 of the 12 games in this series were played between 1960 and 1980, with the other 2 games being played in 2007 and 2008. Both teams are 1-2, with their lone wins against FCS teams, and big losses to P5 teams and to top level AAC teams, so there isn't much to distinguish between them based on recent results. USM is 2-1 in the series in Jonesboro (and 1-0 in Little Rock), so maybe I'll go with the history. Eagles win over the Red Wolves, but you could easily convince me it could go the other way.
Nevada @ Texas State- The Wolf Pack lead the series 2-0, winning in 2012 in San Marcos, and winning 38-14 last year in Las Vegas. This year, UN is 0-3, losing to an FCS team, but playing Kansas to within a TD last week. The Bobcats are 2-1. with an upset win over Baylor and a narrow 7-point loss to UTSA, both on the road. TSU wins.
UAB @ Georgia- The Bulldogs lead the series 3-0, winning in 2003, 2006, and 2021, all in Athens, by a combined score of 106-20, which sounds like they routed the Blazers 3 times, but the score in 2003 was only 16-13. I don't think it will be that close this year. Dawgs win big.
Texas @ Baylor- The Longhorns have dominated this series 80-28-4, winning 38-27 last year, but the teams have split the last 4. UT has had some long periods of dominance in this series that started in 1901: 10-0-1 from 1901-1914, 7-1-1 from 1927-1935, 10-1-1 from 1940-1953, 16 straight wins from 1958-1973, and 16-1 from 1993-2009. The Bears had their own little mini-stretches of dominance: 3-1-1 from 1916-1924, 3-1 from 1936-1939, 4-3 from 1974-1980, 6-3 from 1984-1992 (including 4-1 from 1988-1992), and 4-1 from 2010-2014. The Longhorns are 3-0 this year, with a win over Rice that's looking better each week, a win over Alabama that appears to be a signature win, and a closer-than-it-looks win over Wyoming. Baylor is 1-2, losing to Texas State and Utah, both at home, with only a win over an FCS opponent. I expect the Bears to play inspired and UT to play somewhat less so (looking ahead to Kansas and Oklahoma the next 2 weeks), but the Horns will do enough to get by and win.
Ohio State @ Notre Dame- The Buckeyes lead the series 5-2, winning the last 5, including in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, the 2016 Fiesta Bowl, and 21-10 last year in Columbus. OSU's other 2 wins came in 1995 and 1996, one each in Columbus and in South Bend, and the Fighting Irish won their 2 games in 1935 and 1936, again once in each location. The Fighting Irish are the only team in FBS that is 4-0, and they have a P5 win over NC State (by 21) and G5 wins over Navy and C Mich by a combined 63 points. The Buckeyes are 3-0, with a conference win over Indiana and a G5 win by 53 points. OSU has allowed only 13 points total in its 2 FBS games while the Irish has allowed 44 in its 3 FBS games. There will be a raucous crowd in South Bend as Notre Dame pulls off the upset over the Buckeyes.
Iowa @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions lead the series 17-14, but the Hawkeyes have won the last 2, breaking a 6-game PSU win streak in the series. The series is tied 11-11 since the Lions joined the Big Ten in 1993, as Penn State was 6-2 vs Iowa from 1971-1984, with Iowa winning the only other matchup, 19-0 in 1930. Iowa is 8-7 in games played in State College, but PSU has won 3of the last 4 at home. So far, the Nittany Lion defense looks just as good, if not better, than the Iowa defense, and the Hawkeyes are nowhere near as proficient on offense. Penn State wins, taking care of the last undefeated team in the Big Ten West.
Akron @ Indiana- The Hoosiers lead the series 3-0, but all the games were played between 2007-2010, with 2 of the 3 in Bloomington. The Zips just might improve on their 2 wins from last year, but one of their wins won't come this week. Indiana gets their 1st win of the season over an FBS foe.
Memphis @ Missouri (St. Louis)- The Missouri Tigers lead the Memphis Tigers 3-1 in the series, with 3 of the games played in Columbia and one in Memphis, and 3 of the games played in the 1990s, and 1 in 2018. Both teams are undefeated, with Mizzou getting an upset win over Kansas State last week and Memphis getting a narrow win over an improving Navy team. Missouri wins a close one.
Minnesota @ Northwestern- The Golden Gophers lead the series 56-36-5, and have won the last 3, including 31-3 last year. The series began in 1892, and after playing 11 more times between 1893 and 1923, has been played almost every year since 1928. The Wildcats may be in for a long year, but Minnesota has got to figure out how to score some points, or they may be in for a disappointing season, too. Gophers win.
Mississippi State @ South Carolina- The Gamecocks lead the series 9-7, winning 7 of the last 8 (since 2000), but the Bulldogs won the last meeting, 27-14 in Starkville in 2016. The teams had never played before SC joined the SEC in 1992, and the Gamecocks are 5-3 in Columbia, after a 1-3 start. MSU is 2-1, getting blown out by LSU last week after escaping Arizona in OT. SC is only 1-2, but has lost to 2 ranked teams in North Carolina and Georgia, who are both still unbeaten. Carolina wins at home.
Buffalo @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-1, with a win over UAB and a 7-point loss to ODU. The Bulls are 0-3, and allowing over 44 ppg, and have lost to an FCS team. UL can score, as they are averaging almost 37 ppg. Louisiana wins.
UCF @ Kansas State- The Wildcats won the only time these 2 have met on the gridiron, 17-13 in 2010 in Manhattan. While the Knights are undefeated, QB John Rhys Plumlee will be out for a few weeks, which means Timmy McClain will be getting the start against a KSU defense that looked good in its 1st 2 games, but gave up 30 in a loss to Missouri last week. The Wildcats weren't as efficient on offense in the Mizzou game as they had been previously, and the UCF defense has yet to allow more than 16 points to any opponent this year. If the Knights can move the ball and put points on the board, the defense may be able to hold up and get the win. However, if there are too many negative plays, turnovers, or 3-and-outs, the defense may not be able to hold up. With Plumlee, I think UCF had a chance. Without, I'll go with the Cats at home.
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh- The Tar Heels lead the series 11-5, and won 42-24 last year, but the Panthers had won the 2 previous meetings, and also won 19-17 in the 2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl. The 1st 4 meetings, between 1974 and 1982, were split 2-2, with each team going 2-0 at home, and the series is tied at 4 wins apiece in games played in Pittsburgh, with the Panthers winning the last 2. The Heels are 3-0, with 3 quality wins over South Carolina, App State, and Minnesota. Pitt is 1-2 with losses to Cincinnati and West Virginia, playing well enough on defense to win, but scoring only a combined 27 points in those games. They may need twice that to keep up with the Tar Heels. UNC wins.
James Madison @ Utah State- The Aggies are 1-2, with losses to Air Force and Iowa, so they desperately need this win to help them get to bowl eligibility. The Dukes are 3-0 with wins over Virginia and Troy by a combined 3 points, so they've been living a charmed life so far this season. Will that luck run out? Not yet. JMU wins this 1st ever meeting.
UNLV @ UTEP- The Rebels lead the series 6-2, winning the last meeting, played in 2018, by the score of 52-24. Before that game, the other meetings were all between 1978 and 1993, with UTEP winning 2 of the 3 played in El Paso. UNLV is 2-1, with a win over Vandy and a loss to Michigan. The Miners are 1-3, with losses to FBS newcomer Jacksonville St, Northwestern, and Arizona. A win here for the Rebels would get them halfway to bowl eligibility. UNLV wins.
USC @ Arizona State- The Trojans lead the series 24-14, and have won 6 of the last 8, including 42-25 last year. All of their matchups have occurred since the Sun Devils joined the Pac 8 in 1978 with Arizona, making it the Pac 10. ASU is 1-2, with a narrow win over an FCS team, and losses to Oklahoma State and Fresno State. USC is 3-0, and were off last week. The Sun Devils have struggled to score, and if you can't score, you aren't going to beat USC. Trojans win big.
California @ Washington- The Huskies lead the series 56-41-4, and have won the last 2, including 28-21 last year, but the Golden Bears won the 2 prior to those. These teams 1st played in 1904, played twice each in 1915 and 1916, played in 1917 and 1919, and have played almost every year since 1921. I guess that will end when they go their separate ways next year. Anyway, Cal is 2-1, but their wins are over North Texas and an FCS team, with a close home loss to Auburn. UW is 3-0, and has won all 3 games by at least 33 points each, and their wins are over Mich State, Tulsa, and Boise State. Washington wins.
Kent State @ Fresno State- The Golden Flashes are 1-2, with big losses to UCF and Arkansas, scoring 6 points in each game. The Bulldogs are 3-0, with wins over 2 P5 teams, including a shutout of Arizona State. As long as they aren't taking KSU lightly, FS will win this 1st time meeting.
New Mexico State @ Hawaii- The Rainbow Warriors lead the series 10-1, but the Aggies won 45-26 last year in Las Cruces, though they are 0-6 in Honolulu. UH is 1-3, playing Vandy close, Stanford within 13 points, beating an FCS team by 11, then getting blown out by Oregon. NMSU has wins over an FCS team and over rival New Mexico last week, but losses in their opener to UMass and to Liberty. Neither team has displayed much of a defense, but the Aggies have shown more of a propensity for scoring. NMSU wins a close one.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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