Power Rankings 9-19-23

Welcome Back!

With almost every team playing this week, there was a lot more movement in the rankings. In addition, I have added some new statistical factors into the rankings. However, the effect of these are mitigated by my preseason numbers, which is fortunate because so many teams have played FCS opponents that the statistics could be skewed somewhat. There is some effect, as you will notice when you see that some teams that lost may have moved up (or stayed the same) while others that won may have moved down (or stayed the same). Those teams usually moved just 1-4 places, and I would consider these adjustments, or corrections, for perhaps being misplaced in the preseason rankings.

At any rate, I am less concerned with being correct right now than I am with being correct at the end of the season. As most of you realize, you could probably take the teams listed from about #13 to #65 or so, place them in a hat and draw the names out randomly and probably be just as accurate, as there just isn't that much separating those teams. The same is probably true for the teams ranked from #66-110 or so.

There was quite a bit of shuffling near the top of the rankings, as Ohio State and Alabama switch places, and Notre Dame and Penn State swap places, as do Utah and Oregon. You will notice the same reshuffling at 10-12, 13-14, 15-16, and 17-19. After that the movements are more dramatic.

I know several of you may have questions about why some teams may move up or down more than others. There are several things that factor in to whether a team moves up or down, and by how much. First I use a point system, and teams earn points by winning, by who they win against, and by how much, and they lose points by losing, using the same considerations. In addition, each team begins the season with a set of points based on my preseason factors- projection, if you will, on how good I "think" they are, based on a number of statistical measures (eventually these will be dropped). So a team could be a long way from the team above  or below, or it could be very close. In other words, earning 20 points for a win won't help much if a team is 35 points behind the team in front of it, unless that team also loses (and gets at least a -15). In the preseason rankings, the teams are usually clustered; we have a few at the top, then there will be a "break' in the numbers, and there will be another cluster, another break, a cluster, a break, and so forth. So much of the movement will happen within these clusters until I drop my preseason rankings in a few weeks, though teams do move up or down between clusters occasionally. In addition, if a team wins, and every team immediately above it wins, that makes it harder to move up, though it may still do so if it has a win over a better team. Again, this may depend on how close it is to those above it, who it beat, and who those other teams beat. Many times I'll think a team will move up or down based on a big upset only to find that the teams immediately around it also had big wins (or losses), and so the effect is mitigated. I hope this helps explain why there seems to be so little movement, at least early in the season. 

There are a lot of teams that moved 4 spots or less. Here are the teams that moved up at least 5 places:

Miami, Fl +6 to #37

SMU +10 to #51

Baylor +5 to #53

South Alabama +8 to #61

Liberty +5 to #62

Nebraska +8 to #82

Middle Tennessee +5 to #86

Miami, Oh +5 to #90

Ball State +9 to #101

Rice +5 to #110

Temple +5 to #115

Texas State +6 to #116

Here are the teams that dropped 5 or more places:

Cincinnati -8 to #28

Oklahoma State -9 to #41

Mississippi State -10 to #57

South Carolina -6 to #58

WKU -10 to #64

Houston -6 to #70

Michigan State -7 to #73

Utah State -5 to #87

Georgia Tech -6 to #91

Tulsa -6 to #109

Bowling Green -5 to #119

ULM -7 to #123

As stated before, this year I am listing where the teams were ranked last week as well.

Here are the new rankings:

Rank	Team	Previous
1	Georgia	1
2	Ohio State	3
3	Alabama	2
4	Michigan	4
5	Clemson	5
6	Notre Dame	7
7	Penn State	6
8	Utah	9
9	Oregon	8
10	LSU	12
11	Washington	11
12	USC	10
13	Texas	14
14	FSU	13
15	Oklahoma	16
16	Tennessee	15
17	Iowa	18
18	TCU	19
19	Kansas State	17
20	Texas A&M	23
21	UCLA	24
22	UCF	22
23	Wisconsin	21
24	Air Force	27
25	Oregon State	26
26	Ole Miss	25
27	North Carolina	31
28	Cincinnati	20
29	UTSA	29
30	Pittsburgh	28
31	Minnesota	30
32	NC State	35
33	Kentucky	33
34	Boise State	36
35	Fresno State	37
36	BYU	34
37	Miami, Fl	43
38	Tulane	41
39	Florida	38
40	Duke	44
41	Oklahoma State	32
42	Wake Forest	40
43	Louisville	39
44	Troy	42
45	Auburn	49
46	Arkansas	45
47	Toledo	48
48	Memphis	46
49	Marshall	50
50	Maryland	51
51	SMU	61
52	Texas Tech	55
53	Baylor	58
54	Appalachian State	56
55	Missouri	53
56	Washington State	59
57	Mississippi State	47
58	South Carolina	52
59	James Madison	57
60	Army	60
61	South Alabama	69
62	Liberty	67
63	Syracuse	62
64	WKU	54
65	San Diego State	63
66	Illinois	65
67	Louisiana	70
68	Iowa State	68
69	Coastal Carolina	72
70	Houston	64
71	West Virginia	71
72	Ohio	73
73	Michigan State	66
74	Kansas	74
75	Purdue	75
76	California	78
77	Wyoming	77
78	UAB	76
79	San Jose State	80
80	Arizona	84
81	Georgia Southern	79
82	Nebraska	90
83	Eastern Michigan	83
84	FAU	81
85	Georgia State	88
86	Middle Tenn	91
87	Utah State	82
88	Rutgers	87
89	East Carolina	86
90	Miami, OH	95
91	Georgia Tech	85
92	Boston College	93
93	Virginia Tech	89
94	Indiana	92
95	Arizona State	94
96	Buffalo	96
97	Southern Miss	97
98	North Texas	102
99	Vanderbilt	98
100	Central Michigan	99
101	Ball State	110
102	Virginia	101
103	New Mexico State	107
104	Northern Illinois	100
105	Navy	109
106	Western Michigan	105
107	Northwestern	104
108	UTEP	106
109	Tulsa	103
110	Rice	115
111	La Tech	108
112	Colorado	112
113	UConn	113
114	Stanford	111
115	Temple	120
116	Texas State	122
117	UNLV	117
118	Colorado State	118
119	Bowling Green	114
120	Kent State	124
121	ODU	119
122	Arkansas State	126
123	ULM	116
124	Jacksonville State	123
125	Hawai'i	121
126	Nevada	125
127	FIU	131
128	New Mexico	128
129	Akron	127
130	Charlotte	129
131	USF	130
132	Sam Houston	132
133	UMass	133

I will update these rankings each week throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!