Week 6 Impressions
Week 6 was thought by most to be a kind of "sleepy" weekend, with not much action expected. However, there were several upsets and near upsets. My impressions this week will be based more on results than on games I actually watched. I judged a marching band event all day Saturday, so I only saw the end of the 8:00 games. However, I did record the Georgia game and watched it Sunday afternoon.
Georgia again played very well. The offense played especially well, moving the ball seemingly at will. And they had a lot of will! My only quibble with how the Dawgs played is that they didn't seem to get much pressure on the Vandy QB. Georgia continues to establish itself as the team to beat in the SEC East.
Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn are the only SEC teams without a conference loss. Florida can still win the East by defeating Georgia on October 28, but they would need to win the rest of their games, or hope for another loss by the Dawgs. The West most likely will come down to the Iron Bowl November 25, even if Auburn loses to Texas A&M this weekend, or to Georgia on November 11. Lose both, and the West is Alabama's regardless of the result of the Iron Bowl. Kentucky still has a mathematical chance to win the East if they win the rest of their SEC games, but Florida would need to lose again. It is possible for a 2-loss team to win the SEC East, but that would eliminate any chance of that team making the CFB Playoff.
In the Big 10, Michigan's chances took a big blow with their loss to Michigan State. While not eliminated, they can't have another loss if they hope to win the East Division. Penn State looks to be the strongest team in the division, but Michigan State and Ohio State are also undefeated in the conference. This division race should be fun! The Big 10 West is Wisconsin's to lose. There don't appear to be any real challengers; when Purdue has the best chance, you know it's virtually in the bag!
The strength in the PAC12 is tilted toward the North. Washington and Washington State seem to be the best teams in the West, but Stanford appears to have righted the ship, though I don't trust their defense. The South Division is wide open. Every team except Colorado, last year's winner, is still in play. USC looks to be the best, but Utah and the Arizona teams are still in it. UCLA could challenge, but they're too inconsistent.
Oklahoma had a clear path the playoff, but losing to Iowa State probably keeps that from happening. TCU looks like the conference's best hope at a playoff spot, but they will need to run the table to even have a chance. Having a conference championship game could end up hurting this conference. Texas may have turned things around, and I'm looking forward to their game with Oklahoma this weekend. Win that, and they're stock will rise significantly. Oklahoma State could challenge TCU, and Texas Tech has only one loss, but I would be surprised if Texas Tech finishes with fewer than four losses in the conference.
The ACC Atlantic Division will come down to the Clemson-NC State game Nov 4. Syracuse is the only other team with less than two conference losses, but nobody expects them to challenge. The Coastal is still wide open, with Miami momentarily the front runner. Their game with Georgia Tech this weekend should establish a clear favorite. Virginia is intriguing, but I expect them to have 3 or more losses in the conference. Virginia Tech is the only other team that could win the division, but it would take a 3-way tie, or 2 losses by Clemson.
Notre Dame continues to roll through their schedule. Their continued good play makes both Georgia and Michigan State look better, and if they continue to win, could find themselves challenging for a playoff spot. With 5 difficult games out of 6 remaining, their resume' would stack up against almost anyone. Remaining games: USC, NC State, Wake Forest, at Miami, Navy, at Stanford. Win them all, and you could make a strong case for inclusion in the playoffs. Of those six, however, only 2 are on the road. BYU is a mess, Army will continue to pound the teams on its mostly weak schedule, and UMass will have their best chances at a win when they play Georgia Southern Oct 21and Maine on Nov 11.
The USF-UCF game on Nov 24 could feature 2 undefeated teams, with the winner being a conference championship win away from a New Year's Six Bowl berth. Win the games impressively enough, and have enough upsets around the country, and one of these 2 teams could sneak into the playoff! On the West side, Navy and Houston are on a collision course to be undefeated in the conference by the time they meet on Nov 24, with the winner playing the USF-UCF winner in the title game. Could be a big weekend in the AAC, if all 4 teams continue to win. However, Navy has to play UCF on Oct 21, so one of those teams will have a loss by Nov 24. Navy also has their annual game against Notre Dame, followed by Houston and Army. Their road appears to be the toughest.
San Diego State is the only team in the Mountain West Conference with less than 2 losses overall. They are the clear favorites, especially in the West Division. Fresno State is 2-0 in the conference, but only 3-2 overall. I don't see them as a serious challenger to the Aztecs. The Mountain Division will come down to the Colorado State-Boise State game on Nov 11. While Wyoming is 1-0 in the conference, I don't see them as a real challenge to the Rams or the Broncos. Their conference win was in overtime over a mediocre Hawaii team. Air Force has not been able to navigate successfully through a difficult early schedule.
FAU has surprisingly started 2-0 in Conference USA, but I don't expect them to continue to win all their conference games. I see at least 2, and maybe as many as 4, conference losses. In my mind, Marshall and Western Kentucky are still the favorites in the East Division. I have no idea how the West is going to play out. I see 7 teams that are roughly even. Maybe there will be some clarity in a week or two. UAB has been a pleasant surprise!
The MAC continues to befuddle me. In a sense, the MAC is like the NFL: any team can beat any other team on any given Saturday. Or Friday. Or Thursday. Or Wednesday. Or Tuesday. Ohio looked to be the best team, but they were defeated by Central Michigan. Bowling Green was 0-5, but they went to Miami and pulled off the victory. Overall, the West looks to be the stronger division, with all except Ball State with a chance to win it. However, it will be difficult for one of the teams to run the table. The East is clearly weaker. Surprisingly, Akron is the only team without a conference loss, but they will probably not stay that way, as their next two games are at Western Michigan and at Toledo.
Finally, the Sun Belt Conference has entered conference play, where the teams are more evenly matched. Barely more than half the teams have played more than 2 conference games, so it is difficult to gauge the relative merits of each team. However, Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State, Appalachian State, and Troy look to be the leaders. The others will be fighting for 5th place.
That's it for this week! Look for my power rankings tomorrow and my picks on Wednesday. Hopefully I will do better than last week. Until next time, may your day and your loved ones be blessed!
Georgia again played very well. The offense played especially well, moving the ball seemingly at will. And they had a lot of will! My only quibble with how the Dawgs played is that they didn't seem to get much pressure on the Vandy QB. Georgia continues to establish itself as the team to beat in the SEC East.
Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn are the only SEC teams without a conference loss. Florida can still win the East by defeating Georgia on October 28, but they would need to win the rest of their games, or hope for another loss by the Dawgs. The West most likely will come down to the Iron Bowl November 25, even if Auburn loses to Texas A&M this weekend, or to Georgia on November 11. Lose both, and the West is Alabama's regardless of the result of the Iron Bowl. Kentucky still has a mathematical chance to win the East if they win the rest of their SEC games, but Florida would need to lose again. It is possible for a 2-loss team to win the SEC East, but that would eliminate any chance of that team making the CFB Playoff.
In the Big 10, Michigan's chances took a big blow with their loss to Michigan State. While not eliminated, they can't have another loss if they hope to win the East Division. Penn State looks to be the strongest team in the division, but Michigan State and Ohio State are also undefeated in the conference. This division race should be fun! The Big 10 West is Wisconsin's to lose. There don't appear to be any real challengers; when Purdue has the best chance, you know it's virtually in the bag!
The strength in the PAC12 is tilted toward the North. Washington and Washington State seem to be the best teams in the West, but Stanford appears to have righted the ship, though I don't trust their defense. The South Division is wide open. Every team except Colorado, last year's winner, is still in play. USC looks to be the best, but Utah and the Arizona teams are still in it. UCLA could challenge, but they're too inconsistent.
Oklahoma had a clear path the playoff, but losing to Iowa State probably keeps that from happening. TCU looks like the conference's best hope at a playoff spot, but they will need to run the table to even have a chance. Having a conference championship game could end up hurting this conference. Texas may have turned things around, and I'm looking forward to their game with Oklahoma this weekend. Win that, and they're stock will rise significantly. Oklahoma State could challenge TCU, and Texas Tech has only one loss, but I would be surprised if Texas Tech finishes with fewer than four losses in the conference.
The ACC Atlantic Division will come down to the Clemson-NC State game Nov 4. Syracuse is the only other team with less than two conference losses, but nobody expects them to challenge. The Coastal is still wide open, with Miami momentarily the front runner. Their game with Georgia Tech this weekend should establish a clear favorite. Virginia is intriguing, but I expect them to have 3 or more losses in the conference. Virginia Tech is the only other team that could win the division, but it would take a 3-way tie, or 2 losses by Clemson.
Notre Dame continues to roll through their schedule. Their continued good play makes both Georgia and Michigan State look better, and if they continue to win, could find themselves challenging for a playoff spot. With 5 difficult games out of 6 remaining, their resume' would stack up against almost anyone. Remaining games: USC, NC State, Wake Forest, at Miami, Navy, at Stanford. Win them all, and you could make a strong case for inclusion in the playoffs. Of those six, however, only 2 are on the road. BYU is a mess, Army will continue to pound the teams on its mostly weak schedule, and UMass will have their best chances at a win when they play Georgia Southern Oct 21and Maine on Nov 11.
The USF-UCF game on Nov 24 could feature 2 undefeated teams, with the winner being a conference championship win away from a New Year's Six Bowl berth. Win the games impressively enough, and have enough upsets around the country, and one of these 2 teams could sneak into the playoff! On the West side, Navy and Houston are on a collision course to be undefeated in the conference by the time they meet on Nov 24, with the winner playing the USF-UCF winner in the title game. Could be a big weekend in the AAC, if all 4 teams continue to win. However, Navy has to play UCF on Oct 21, so one of those teams will have a loss by Nov 24. Navy also has their annual game against Notre Dame, followed by Houston and Army. Their road appears to be the toughest.
San Diego State is the only team in the Mountain West Conference with less than 2 losses overall. They are the clear favorites, especially in the West Division. Fresno State is 2-0 in the conference, but only 3-2 overall. I don't see them as a serious challenger to the Aztecs. The Mountain Division will come down to the Colorado State-Boise State game on Nov 11. While Wyoming is 1-0 in the conference, I don't see them as a real challenge to the Rams or the Broncos. Their conference win was in overtime over a mediocre Hawaii team. Air Force has not been able to navigate successfully through a difficult early schedule.
FAU has surprisingly started 2-0 in Conference USA, but I don't expect them to continue to win all their conference games. I see at least 2, and maybe as many as 4, conference losses. In my mind, Marshall and Western Kentucky are still the favorites in the East Division. I have no idea how the West is going to play out. I see 7 teams that are roughly even. Maybe there will be some clarity in a week or two. UAB has been a pleasant surprise!
The MAC continues to befuddle me. In a sense, the MAC is like the NFL: any team can beat any other team on any given Saturday. Or Friday. Or Thursday. Or Wednesday. Or Tuesday. Ohio looked to be the best team, but they were defeated by Central Michigan. Bowling Green was 0-5, but they went to Miami and pulled off the victory. Overall, the West looks to be the stronger division, with all except Ball State with a chance to win it. However, it will be difficult for one of the teams to run the table. The East is clearly weaker. Surprisingly, Akron is the only team without a conference loss, but they will probably not stay that way, as their next two games are at Western Michigan and at Toledo.
Finally, the Sun Belt Conference has entered conference play, where the teams are more evenly matched. Barely more than half the teams have played more than 2 conference games, so it is difficult to gauge the relative merits of each team. However, Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State, Appalachian State, and Troy look to be the leaders. The others will be fighting for 5th place.
That's it for this week! Look for my power rankings tomorrow and my picks on Wednesday. Hopefully I will do better than last week. Until next time, may your day and your loved ones be blessed!
Comments
Post a Comment