Paul's Picks Week 5 9/26/19

Welcome back!

Last week was my worst week yet, as I finished 42-16 for a .724 win percentage.  Overall, I am 234-51, which is 82.1%.  Not bad!  How long can I stay above 80%?  There are a lot of interesting games this week as most teams have finished their non-conference slate, but there are a few still remaining.  Unfortunately, there are still 4 games against FCS opponents this week.

On to the predictions!

Thursday, September 26

Navy @ Memphis- This game will go a long way in determining who will challenge for the AAC West.  The Midshipmen have looked solid so far, but they've only played 2 games.  Both teams are coming out of an off week, so the Tigers have had time to prepare as well, and both are undefeated.  I think Memphis is the best in the AAC West, and perhaps all of the AAC.  Memphis wins.

Friday, September 27

Duke @ Virginia Tech- Each team is 2-1, and each one is coming off of their off week.  I have not been impressed with the Hokies so far, but it's possible they may have fixed their issues, but I have more faith in Duke HC David Cutcliffe than I do in VT HC Justin Fuente, all things being equal (which these 2 teams seem to be).  Blue Devils win.

Penn State @ Maryland- This is yet another game with both teams being off last week (it's a trend!).  The Terrapins looked unbeatable the 1st 2 weeks, until they lost to Temple (who then lost to Buffalo- the same Buffalo PS beat 45-13 in week 2).  The Nittany Lions looked strong until they struggled against Pitt in week 3, and they're on the road for the 1st time in 2019.  Penn St wins a high scoring affair.

San Jose State @ Air Force- The Falcons suffered their 1st loss on the road at Boise St last weekend, and now face the Spartans, who are 2-1 and fresh off an upset of Arkansas on the road.  I haven't bought in on SJSU, but if they win this one... AF wins a close one.

Arizona State @ California- The Golden Bears are the lone remaining undefeated Pac 12 team, but their average margin of victory is just a little over 7 ppg.  The Sun Devils suffered their 1st loss last week, losing to Colorado.  The Pac 12 is very balanced, with no team head and shoulders above any other, and, really, no team scraping the bottom (Oregon St is the closest).  It'll be just like the Pac 12 to lose their last undefeated team playing at home.  ASU wins.

Saturday, September 28

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma- The Sooners have yet to be challenged, and the Red Raiders won't be the 1st to do so.  This is yet ANOTHER game with both teams coming out of off weeks.  OU wins big.

Northwestern @ Wisconsin- The question here is whether the Badgers will keep rolling, or whether they will suffer a letdown after last week's big win over Michigan.  The Wildcats are off to their usual slow start, but I'll be very surprised if they start their turnaround in this game on the road.  UW wins.

Middle Tennessee @ Iowa- Would you believe these 2 teams are coming out of an off week? The Blue Raiders have already been blown out by Michigan and Duke, so the Hawkeyes should have very few problems winning this, especially at home.  Iowa wins.

Rutgers @ Michigan- How would you like to be the Scarlet Knights this week, taking on the angry Wolverines? UM rolls.

Texas A&M a@ Arkansas- The Razorbacks are singlehandedly ruining the reputation of the SEC, struggling (and sometimes losing) to "lesser" teams from G5 conferences (and the FCS).  The Aggies are, contrary to many people's beliefs, not a good team, one that will struggle to reach bowl eligibility.  But they won't struggle with Arkansas.  TAMU wins easily.

Holy Cross @ Syracuse- The Orange will rout the Crusaders.  SU wins.

Northern Illinois @ Vanderbilt-  The Commodores have started the season poorly (0-3), but they'll be facing a Huskies team that not as good as in past years.  This time, only NIU is coming out of an off week, but Vandy prevails in a close one.

Kansas @ TCU- The Horned Frogs suffered their 1st loss last week, but the Jayhawks are used to losing.  TCU wins easily, as I don't see KU winning 2 P5 road.  Plus, TCU wants revenge for last year!

BYU @ Toledo- The Cougars have 2 narrow wins in OT and 2 blowout losses, all against P5 competition.  The Rockets lost to their only P5 opponent- Kentucky.  Even though they're on the road, I look for BYU to pull this one out.

Buffalo @ Miami, OH- The Bulls pulled off a stunner last week, beating Temple by 16 pts.  The Redhawks scored the 1st 5 pts (5???) against Ohio St before losing by 71!  Call me crazy, but I'm going with the home team.  Miami wins.

Central Michigan @ Western Michigan- Both teams are an identical 2-2, with the same pattern of wins and losses- win, loss, win, loss.  The Broncos have beaten a Sun Belt and an FCS team, while getting blown out by teams from the Big Ten and the ACC.  The Chippewas have beaten conference foe Akron and an FCS team, while getting blown out by a Big Ten team, but playing an ACC team close.  Pretty much a coin toss based on their resumes, but I'm going with the home team.  WMU wins.

Delaware @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers better be ready, because the Blue Hens are capable of pulling the upset.  Pitt wins, but it will be close for a little while.

Clemson @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels have lost 2 in a row after starting the season with 2 dramatic victories.  Clemson, meanwhile, just keeps rolling along, with an average margin of victory of 32.25 ppg.  Tigers win big.

Ole Miss @ Alabama- The Rebels put their perfect 1-0 SEC record on the line as they travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Crimson Tide.  Only one of these teams will still have a perfect SEC record when this is done, and it won't be Ole Miss.  Alabama rolls.

Virginia @ Notre Dame- I really, really want the Cavaliers to win this game and stay unbeaten, but I think the Fighting Irish are too strong, especially at home.  I still expect UVA to challenge for the ACC Coastal, but ND wins this game.

USC @ Washington- Both teams are 3-1 entering this contest, and neither wants to be saddled with another loss, as that would knock either out of ANY (slim) hope of making the playoff.  The Trojans, however, are still undefeated in Pac 12 play.  The Huskies bounced back big time from their loss to Cal with 2 routs of Hawai'i and BYU, but now face USC and they're 3rd string QB.  UW wins.

Indiana @ Michigan State- Both teams are 3-1 overall, but the Hoosiers are 0-1 in the conference, having been blown out by Ohio St.  The Spartans aren't the Buckeyes, but they proved last week that they're better than IU.  MSU wins.

FAU @ Charlotte- Each team comes in with an identical 2-2 record, but the Owls are in the midst of a 2-game winning streak.  The 49ers have a good offense, and a good chance of gaining bowl eligibility, but FAU wins this one.

Georgia Tech @ Temple- The Yellow Jackets were off last week, so perhaps they fixed their problems offensively.  The Owls shut down the prolific Maryland offense, then allowed 38 to Buffalo in a loss.  Hard to know what we're going to get with these 2 teams, so I'm going with the home team.  Temple wins.

Wake Forest @ Boston College- The Eagles might be a decent team, the loss to Kansas notwithstanding, but I'm beginning to buy in on the undefeated Demon Deacons.  Even though the game is in Chestnut Hill, I'm going with WF.

Iowa State @ Baylor- Both teams have looked solid so far, but the only team of consequence either has played is Iowa, and ISU lost that one.  The Cyclones were predicted by many to finish 3rd in the Big 12 (myself included), and they'll need to beat the Bears if they hope to do that.  ISU wins.

Minnesota @ Purdue- The Golden Gophers are undefeated, and guess what? Both teams were off last week! What a surprise! The Boilermakers are 1-2, and they typically start the year slow.  This will be a very competitive game, with the winner fancying themselves a contender.  This is another coin flip game, so I'm going with Minnesota, though they're the road team.

Coastal Carolina @ Appalachian State- The Chanticleers have been a pleasant surprise at 3-1, with wins over Kansas and UMass, and their lone loss by 7 to a good Eastern Michigan team.  But the Mountaineers are 3-0 and coming off an upset win at UNC.  As long as they don't overlook CCU, ASU wins.

Akron @ UMass- This is a pitiful game, as both are 0-4.  The good news is that one of these teams will no longer be winless.  The Zips have lost by an average of 24.25 ppg, but those were against mostly quality opposition.  On the other hand, the Minutemen have lost by an average of 30.25, and none of their opponents would be called "quality" (Rutgers, FCS Southern Illinois, Charlotte, CCU).  I'm going with another road team.  Akron wins.

Towson @ Florida- The Gators will roll over the Tigers.

SMU @ USF- The Mustangs are 4-0 for the 1st time since the Pony Express days of 1984 (pre-Death Penalty), while the Bulls have yet to show anything.  This is a prime spot for an upset, as USF had an off week last week, but I think SMU wins, and equals their win total from all of last year.

Cincinnati @ Marshall- Surprise, surprise- both teams were off last week!  I'm not sure what to make of the Bearcats- are they as god as they looked beating UCLA, or as bad as they looked against Ohio St? The Thundering Herd have really impressed me so far, as they only lost at Boise St by 7. My heart says Marshall, but my head says Cincinnati.  Go with my head; Bearcats win.

New Mexico @ Liberty- Both teams get their head coaches back on the sidelines this week, but I don't know if it will make much of a difference for either team.  The Flames have won their last 2 (Buffalo and FCS Hampton), but I like the offense of the Lobos.  NM wins.

East Carolina @ ODU- The Monarchs have yet to play a game outside of the state of Virginia, and won't until they travel all the way to West Virginia to play Marshall on October 12.  Neither team has been overly impressive, but the Pirates have a chance to match last year's win total.  ECU wins.

Arkansas State @ Troy- This should be a fantastic game between 2 of the better teams in the SBC.  The Trojans have played well, but the Red Wolves have played tougher competition.  This is a tough one, but this time, I'm going with my heart.  ASU wins.

Louisiana @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles had an off week last week, following a 3-point loss to Minnesota.  The Ragin' Cajuns are a robust 3-1, with a 3-game winning streak, all by at least 20 points.  I think GS pulls this one out at home, but it'll be close.

Mississippi State @ Auburn- The Bulldogs are another SEC West team that I don't think is as good as the pundits think it is.  They're 3-1, but haven't looked all that impressive.  That could change, but I don't think they'll take down the undefeated Tigers, a team that's getting better every week.  AU wins.

UConn @ UCF- It's been more than 2 years since the Knights have lost a regular season game, but the Huskies are incapable of making it 2 losses in a row.  UCF wins big.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State- The Wildcats are off to a terrific start under new HC Chris Klieman, and they're coming off an off week, but the Cowboys just have too many playmakers to lose this one at home.  OSU wins, but if KSU pulls the upset, I just may have to go all in on the Wildcats.

South Alabama @ ULM- The Warhawks have played rather well, except for the debacle last week at Iowa St.  The Jaguars played Nebraska close in the opener, and beat an FCS team, but have been blown out twice since, both by G5 teams.  I'm going with ULM at home.

Nicholls @ Texas State- The Bobcats beat Ga St last week, so they should be able to handle the Colonels.  TSU wins.

UTEP @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles have played okay in the 1st 4 games, but the Miners barely squeaked by an FCS team, and have been blown out twice since.  USM wins.

UAB @ WKU- Stop me if you've heard this before, but both teams were off last week.  Despite their loss to FCS Central Arkansas, the Hilltoppers have actually played pretty well, beating conference foe FIU and only losing to Louisville by 17.  However, the Blazers are undefeated, and should stay that way until November.  UAB wins.

Louisiana Tech @ Rice- The Bulldogs are 3-1, following their opening loss to Texas with 3 straight wins against lesser opposition.  The 0-4 Owls (they've lost to 3 P5 teams and Army- what a brutal opening 4 games!) also count as lesser opposition.  LT wins.

Stanford @ Oregon State- The Cardinal are reeling, and the Beavers had an off week, but I can't see Stanford losing this game.  If they do, they're worse off than anyone thought.  Or maybe Oregon St is better than anyone thinks.  Stanford wins a close one.

Ohio State @ Nebraska- The Buckeyes have run roughshod over everyone in their path, winning by an average of 44.25 ppg.  The Cornhuskers lost to Colorado and barely edged Illinois.  This may be close for a quarter or so, but I doubt it.  OSU in a rout.

NC State @ FSU- The Wolfpack have looked good against weaker opponents, but lost to West Virginia, the only team they have played so far that is comparable to their own talent level.  The Seminoles have faded in the 2nd halves of every game so far, but managed to win 2 of them.  NC St wins.

Kentucky @ South Carolina- Both of these teams have been a disappointment so far, but I think the Wildcats are the stronger team.  The Gamecocks have a close loss to UNC, a blowout of an FCS team, and 2 big losses to SEC foes.  UK wins.

Colorado State @ Utah State- The Rams are a mess, and the Aggies just upset SDSU to start 1-0 in the MWC.  USU wins.

UNLV @ Wyoming- The Cowboys suffered their 1st loss last week at Tulsa, and the Rebels are coming off of an off week, but Wyoming will prevail.

Fresno State @ New Mexico State- The Bulldogs played both USC and Minnesota close before losing, and they got on the winning track last week against FCS Sacramento St.  The Aggies played their only close game last week against rival New Mexico.  FS wins.

Houston @ North Texas- Everyone is concerned that the UH QB and WR have elected to end their season early and take redshirts for this year.  The consensus is that this is a lost season anyway (at 1-3), and there's no reason to try to salvage it.  Though the Mean Green is a decent CUSA team, I think the Cougars will be inspired by their seniors to show that the season isn't lost.  While it won't last all year, UH wins this one close.

Washington State @ Utah- Both teams suffered their 1st loss last week, but the way the Cougars lots is going to leave a mark.  How do you blow a 32-point lead in the 3rd quarter, and lose even though you tack on 2 more TDs? The Utes win this one, and it may be a while before WSU recovers.

UCLA @ Arizona- The Bruins scored 50 points in the 2nd half against Washington State last week after only scoring 59 points in their 1st 14 quarters of play.  But they won't catch the Wildcats off guard, as they're coming out of an off week.  UA wins.

Hawai'i @ Nevada- The Rainbow Warriors don't often lose on The Island, but this game is on the mainland.  The Wolfpack is not a great team, but they win this at home.

That's all for now!  Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes, where I'll review all the results and their implications.  Also, feel free to follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!