Week 10 Impressions
Wow! We had another crazy week of college football: unexpected routs, big upsets, close games. This week had it all. I'm going to go through each conference alphabetically.
The AAC East will come down to the USF at UCF game on Nov 24, even if one or both of them stumble beforehand. Temple is still technically in the race, but they would need a minor miracle to make it happen. In the AAC West, Memphis leads by one game over Houston, and holds the tiebreaker due to their 42-38 win on Oct 19. Memphis is angling for a rematch against UCF in the title game, but they will need to play much better than the 13-40 result they had on Sept 30.
The ACC is nearly decided. Miami holds a 2-game lead on Virginia Tech and Virginia, and have already beaten Va Tech. Virginia could win the Coastal Division, but would need to beat Louisville, Miami. and Va Tech, and hope Miami loses to Pitt on Nov 24. The Atlantic is slightly more competitive, as Clemson and NC State both could win it, but Clemson holds the tiebreaker advantage due to their win this past weekend. NC State would need for Clemson to lose to FSU (their final conference game) this weekend, and would need to beat Boston College, Wake Forest, and North Carolina the next 3 weeks.
Oklahoma and TCU now have a one-game lead in the Big12, but they play each other this weekend. Obviously, the winner of that game would have the inside track to the championship game (why is the Big 12 doing this?). I can see the loser of this game meeting the winner in the championship game and winning the rematch, thus ensuring no Big12 team makes the playoff. Oklahoma St, West Virginia, and Iowa St still have a chance to make the championship game. Oklahoma St would need to beat Iowa St this weekend, and hope for the loser of the Oklahoma-TCU game to lose one more, since they have already lost to both. West Virginia would need to hope Oklahoma wins this weekend, win their remaining games (Kansas St, Texas, and Oklahoma), and hope Oklahoma St loses one more. Iowa St needs to win out (Okla St, Baylor, Kansas St) and hope West Virginia loses once more.
The Big 10 is a mess. Their only hope for a playoff berth is an undefeated Wisconsin. The Badgers have all but clinched the West Division, needing only one more win, or a loss by Northwestern, to do so. However, Northwestern only has Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois to play, while Wisconsin has their 3 toughest games left: Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota, so there is still a chance, however slim, for Northwestern to win the division. This would be disastrous for the conference. Michigan State can all but clinch the Big10 East by beating Ohio State this weekend, needing only one more victory to do so. Their last 2 games are versus Maryland and at Rutgers, certainly no gimmes. Penn State and Michigan have the slimmest of chances. Penn St would need to win their 3 remaining games and hope for Ohio St and Michigan st to each lose 2 of their 3 remaining games. Michigan needs for Ohio St to lose 2, Michigan St to lose 3, and Penn St to lose 1, and then they must win their remaining games (which would include a win over Ohio St).
Conference USA East looks like it may come down to the FIU at FAU game on Nov 18, as FAU leads FIU by one game. WKU would need to win out, and hope FIU defeats FAU, and that FAU loses one more. Marshall would need to win their 3 remaining games, and hope FAU loses their last 3 games, and FIU loses 2 of their 3. Not too likely. The C-USA West is a little less clear, as North Texas leads, with UAB and Southern Miss a game or so behind. The Mean Green have already defeated both teams, so it would take 2 losses by them with the others winning out for them to have a chance.
The Ohio at Akron game on Nov 14 will likely determine the MAC East title, though more will be clear after games this week. Toledo leads the MAC West by one game over Northern Illinois, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, so their magic number is 2: any combination of Toledo wins and Northern Illinois losses equaling 2 will clinch the division for Toledo. Northern Illinois would need to win out and have Toledo lose 2, or go 2-1 with Toledo losing 3. Tough odds, but possible, as Toledo still must play Ohio and Western Michigan.
Boise St has surged back to the Fore in the MWC Mountain Division, and can clinch with a victory over Colorado State on Saturday and a loss by Wyoming to Air Force, Fresno St, or San Jose St. If Boise St loses, they still hold the tiebreaker edge over Wyoming. Colorado St would need to win both of their remaining games and hope Wyoming loses 2 and Boise loses all three of their games. Pretty long odds, I'd say. In the West Division, Fresno St leads San Diego St by a game, and holds the tiebreaker. They only need to win 2 of their remaining 3 games to clinch, or have or have San Diego St lose 1of their last 2 games. UNLV has an outside shot, but it's highly unlikely.
USC only has to beat either Colorado or UCLA to clinch the PAC12 South. Arizona and Arizona St would need to win their remaining games and hope USC loses to both. Washington needs to beat Stanford and Washington State to clinch the North (or hope the team(s) that beats them loses another game). Washington State would clinch by winning out (over Utah and Washington). Stanford would need to beat Washington, and hope the Washington State Cougars lose one game.
Georgia has already clinched the SEC East, regardless of what happens against Auburn, Kentucky, or Georgia Tech. However, they need to beat Kentucky and Tech, and at least play close to Auburn, to have a chance at the playoff, assuming a win in the SECCG. Alabama and Auburn control their own destinies: win out, and the West is theirs. Mississippi State could still win it by winning out and having Auburn beat both Alabama and Georgia. That would create a 3-way tie at the top, which could fall in their favor, but this scenario seems unlikely.
Arkansas St still has the clearest path the Sun Belt Conference championship. They simply have to win out over South Alabama, Texas State, ULM, and Troy. However, if Troy wins out (Coastal Carolina, Texas St, and Ark St), which would include a win over Ark St, they would be champions. Appalachian St would need to win out, and have Ark St lose one to create a tie at the top (they don't play either of the other 2 teams). Georgia St is in the same situation: win out, and hope Ark St lose one. Louisiana is technically still alive, but their chance is pretty slim, and would require a LOT of moving parts.
I was very pleased with the Georgia win last Saturday over South Carolina. I felt they played well, and, while they didn't dominate, I never felt stressed either.
Until next time, may your day and your loved ones be blessed!
The AAC East will come down to the USF at UCF game on Nov 24, even if one or both of them stumble beforehand. Temple is still technically in the race, but they would need a minor miracle to make it happen. In the AAC West, Memphis leads by one game over Houston, and holds the tiebreaker due to their 42-38 win on Oct 19. Memphis is angling for a rematch against UCF in the title game, but they will need to play much better than the 13-40 result they had on Sept 30.
The ACC is nearly decided. Miami holds a 2-game lead on Virginia Tech and Virginia, and have already beaten Va Tech. Virginia could win the Coastal Division, but would need to beat Louisville, Miami. and Va Tech, and hope Miami loses to Pitt on Nov 24. The Atlantic is slightly more competitive, as Clemson and NC State both could win it, but Clemson holds the tiebreaker advantage due to their win this past weekend. NC State would need for Clemson to lose to FSU (their final conference game) this weekend, and would need to beat Boston College, Wake Forest, and North Carolina the next 3 weeks.
Oklahoma and TCU now have a one-game lead in the Big12, but they play each other this weekend. Obviously, the winner of that game would have the inside track to the championship game (why is the Big 12 doing this?). I can see the loser of this game meeting the winner in the championship game and winning the rematch, thus ensuring no Big12 team makes the playoff. Oklahoma St, West Virginia, and Iowa St still have a chance to make the championship game. Oklahoma St would need to beat Iowa St this weekend, and hope for the loser of the Oklahoma-TCU game to lose one more, since they have already lost to both. West Virginia would need to hope Oklahoma wins this weekend, win their remaining games (Kansas St, Texas, and Oklahoma), and hope Oklahoma St loses one more. Iowa St needs to win out (Okla St, Baylor, Kansas St) and hope West Virginia loses once more.
The Big 10 is a mess. Their only hope for a playoff berth is an undefeated Wisconsin. The Badgers have all but clinched the West Division, needing only one more win, or a loss by Northwestern, to do so. However, Northwestern only has Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois to play, while Wisconsin has their 3 toughest games left: Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota, so there is still a chance, however slim, for Northwestern to win the division. This would be disastrous for the conference. Michigan State can all but clinch the Big10 East by beating Ohio State this weekend, needing only one more victory to do so. Their last 2 games are versus Maryland and at Rutgers, certainly no gimmes. Penn State and Michigan have the slimmest of chances. Penn St would need to win their 3 remaining games and hope for Ohio St and Michigan st to each lose 2 of their 3 remaining games. Michigan needs for Ohio St to lose 2, Michigan St to lose 3, and Penn St to lose 1, and then they must win their remaining games (which would include a win over Ohio St).
Conference USA East looks like it may come down to the FIU at FAU game on Nov 18, as FAU leads FIU by one game. WKU would need to win out, and hope FIU defeats FAU, and that FAU loses one more. Marshall would need to win their 3 remaining games, and hope FAU loses their last 3 games, and FIU loses 2 of their 3. Not too likely. The C-USA West is a little less clear, as North Texas leads, with UAB and Southern Miss a game or so behind. The Mean Green have already defeated both teams, so it would take 2 losses by them with the others winning out for them to have a chance.
The Ohio at Akron game on Nov 14 will likely determine the MAC East title, though more will be clear after games this week. Toledo leads the MAC West by one game over Northern Illinois, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, so their magic number is 2: any combination of Toledo wins and Northern Illinois losses equaling 2 will clinch the division for Toledo. Northern Illinois would need to win out and have Toledo lose 2, or go 2-1 with Toledo losing 3. Tough odds, but possible, as Toledo still must play Ohio and Western Michigan.
Boise St has surged back to the Fore in the MWC Mountain Division, and can clinch with a victory over Colorado State on Saturday and a loss by Wyoming to Air Force, Fresno St, or San Jose St. If Boise St loses, they still hold the tiebreaker edge over Wyoming. Colorado St would need to win both of their remaining games and hope Wyoming loses 2 and Boise loses all three of their games. Pretty long odds, I'd say. In the West Division, Fresno St leads San Diego St by a game, and holds the tiebreaker. They only need to win 2 of their remaining 3 games to clinch, or have or have San Diego St lose 1of their last 2 games. UNLV has an outside shot, but it's highly unlikely.
USC only has to beat either Colorado or UCLA to clinch the PAC12 South. Arizona and Arizona St would need to win their remaining games and hope USC loses to both. Washington needs to beat Stanford and Washington State to clinch the North (or hope the team(s) that beats them loses another game). Washington State would clinch by winning out (over Utah and Washington). Stanford would need to beat Washington, and hope the Washington State Cougars lose one game.
Georgia has already clinched the SEC East, regardless of what happens against Auburn, Kentucky, or Georgia Tech. However, they need to beat Kentucky and Tech, and at least play close to Auburn, to have a chance at the playoff, assuming a win in the SECCG. Alabama and Auburn control their own destinies: win out, and the West is theirs. Mississippi State could still win it by winning out and having Auburn beat both Alabama and Georgia. That would create a 3-way tie at the top, which could fall in their favor, but this scenario seems unlikely.
Arkansas St still has the clearest path the Sun Belt Conference championship. They simply have to win out over South Alabama, Texas State, ULM, and Troy. However, if Troy wins out (Coastal Carolina, Texas St, and Ark St), which would include a win over Ark St, they would be champions. Appalachian St would need to win out, and have Ark St lose one to create a tie at the top (they don't play either of the other 2 teams). Georgia St is in the same situation: win out, and hope Ark St lose one. Louisiana is technically still alive, but their chance is pretty slim, and would require a LOT of moving parts.
I was very pleased with the Georgia win last Saturday over South Carolina. I felt they played well, and, while they didn't dominate, I never felt stressed either.
Until next time, may your day and your loved ones be blessed!
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