Week 11 Impressions and Other Things
That had to be one of the most disappointing games I have ever seen. Not on par with the Falcons' Super Bowl collapse, but disappointing nonetheless. Other than its opening drive, Georgia did next to nothing to help itself win, and much to help Auburn win. The worst outcome is that I believe Georgia has lost its chance at the CFB Playoff.
Stay with me here, and let me explain my thinking. Let's say the Dawgs win their last two regular season games- no sure thing- against Kentucky and Georgia Tech. If Auburn beats Alabama, in a fairly close game, then the rematch will be set. However, I can see the committee taking a one-loss Alabama team over an SEC Champion one-loss Georgia. The precedent was set last year in the Big Ten, where Ohio State was chosen over Big10 champion Penn State, mainly because of the Lion' 39 point loss to Michigan. Similar circumstances here. If Georgia meets Alabama, and wins, then it's more likely that no SEC team will make the playoff. Notre Dame's crushing loss to Miami completely devalued Georgia's earlier win over the Irish. At this point, I can see Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson, Miami, and Wisconsin as the top 6. If a one loss Clemson beats an undefeated Miami in the ACCCG, then both could make the playoff (same scenario we were talking about last week with Georgia and Alabama). Oklahoma, if it wins out, will be a lock. Wisconsin, if it wins out, will also be in. Georgia's only hope is to win their remaining games, and hope for lots of upsets. They are no longer in charge of their own destiny.
As mentioned last week, Georgia has already clinched the SEC East. South Carolina has now clinched 2nd place, and Kentucky 3rd. Florida put up a fight this week against the Gamecocks, but came up short. Tennessee has completely given up, and it's being reported that Butch Jones has been fired (now confirmed). Missouri has come on strong, winning its last 4 games, and could tie Kentucky for 3rd (the Wildcats own the tiebreaker, but it's third place, so who cares?). Vandy is hoping to beat Tennessee for the 2nd year in a row.
The SEC West will come down to the Iron Bowl November 25 at Auburn. The winner of that game will meet Georgia in the SECCG. I would be really surprised if Arkansas and Texas A&M retain their coaches for next year, as both have fallen far short of expectations. LSU has gotten much better lately, winning 4 of their last 5, and Mississippi State has improved their record from last year already, with one more win, and 2 games still to play (at Arkansas and versus Ole Miss at home).
Wisconsin has clinched the Big10 West for the same reason Georgia clinched the SEC East: the rest of the division was so bad. Northwestern is the best of the rest, which isn't saying much.
If Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State win out, and Ohio State defeats Illinois next week, there would be a 4-way tie at the top of the Big10 East. In this scenario, Ohio State would be the champion. Ohio State will clinch with a victory over Illinois and Michigan, or a loss by Penn State to either Nebraska or Maryland. Penn State needs to win both, have Ohio State lose one, and have Michigan State lose to either Maryland or Rutgers. Michigan State would need to win out, and hope Ohio State loses both. Michigan would need to win out and hope Penn State and Michigan State both lose one of their remaining games. Pretty complicated, much like NFL playoff scenarios with 2-3 games left in the season.
USC has clinched the PAC12 South. The winner of the Arizona-Arizona State game will most likely finish second. The rest of the division has 4 or more conference losses. The PAC12 North is still open to several possibilities. If Washington wins out, they would need for Stanford to lose to California. If Stanford beats Cal, they would need for Washington to beat Washington State, who would be champion if they win the Apple Cup. The Cougars are the only team that controls their destiny. Oregon, Cal, and Oregon State are afterthoughts.
Oklahoma will win the Big12 if they win their remaining 2 games against Kansas and West Virginia. The Mountaneers still have a shot, but would need to beat Texas and Oklahoma to set up tie breaker scenarios. Oklahoma State and TCU still have an outside shot, again based on there being a tie at the top. But remember, they only need to finish in the top 2 to play in the Big12 Championship Game. Oklahoma State has Kansas St and Kansas left (2 likely wins), and TCU has Texas Tech and Baylor to play (2 likely wins). Texas and Iowa State technically still have a shot, but it's remote. Assuming Oklahoma can win out, then TCU has the tie breaker over Oklahoma State. Still a lot to be decided in this conference!
Clemson has clinched the ACC Atlantic, and it's a good bet NC State will finish second. A win over either Wake Forest or North Carolina, or a loss by Wake Forest will sew up 2nd place for the Wolfpack. The rest of the division is mass of mediocrity; no one is very good, but then again, none are very bad, either. With Virginia's loss to Louisville last Saturday, Miami clinched the Coastal Division. Second place will be decided between, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Virginia.
If they both keep winning, the AAC East will be decided on Nov 24 when USF plays at UCF. Temple will clinch 3rd if it beats UCF or Tulsa, and could finish in a tie for 2nd if USF also loses their last 2 games. Memphis will clinch the West Division with a win over either SMU or East Carolina, or a loss by Houston to either Tulane or Navy. Navy is the likely 3rd place winner, but could finish second with a win over Houston on Nov 24.
Boise State will clinch the MWC Mountain Division with a win over Air Force or Fresno St, or a loss by Wyoming to either Fresno St or San Jose St. The best Colorado State, the expected division winner, can do is finish third. Fresno State has a much more difficult path to the West Division title: they need to beat Wyoming or Boise State, or hope San Diego State loses to either Nevada or New Mexico. UNLV could still win it with wins over New Mexico and Nevada, 2 losses by Fresno State, and two losses by San Diego State- not very likely. However, a 3-way tie is possible if UNLV wins out, Fresno State loses out, and SDS goes 1-1. Since each would be 1-1 against the others, they would need to go deeper into the tie breaker scenario, which is probably record within the division. In that case, it's possible they would still be tied with 4-1 records (unless Nevada is the team that beats SD State, in which case UNLV would be the division champion based on their win over Fresno St). Complicated? You bet!
Toledo has a magic number of 2, which means any combination of their wins and Northern Illinois losses equaling 2 will clinch the MAC West. Northern Illinois needs to beat Western and Central Michigan, and hope Toledo loses to either Bowling Green or Western Michigan. If Western Michigan can beat both, they would be division champion (they're the Auburn of the MAC). Unless Central Michigan also wins out (over Kent State and N Illinois), in which case they could be champion, unless Toledo wins one game. Another complicated scenario.
In the MAC East, the winner of the Ohio-Akron game on Tuesday in Akron will have the inside track. Miami has an outside shot, if they can finagle a 3-way tie, but that's pretty slim. The rest of the MAC teams have been eliminated, but could serve as spoilers.
FAU has all but clinched the CUSA East title. All they need is a win over either FIU or Charlotte, and their spot in the championship game is secured. FIU could spoil the fun by defeating FAU and WKU, but they would need for Charlotte to upset FAU. North Texas has already clinched the CUSA West by virtue of their wins over UAB on Sept 23 and Southern Miss on Sept 30. UAB can clinch 2nd place with a win over UTEP on Nov 25, or a loss by Southern Miss to either Charlotte or Marshall.
Finally, the Sun Belt seems destined for a shared conference title. Troy, Georgia State, and Appalachian State all lead with a 5-1 record, while Arkansas State is only a half-game behind at 4-1. Louisiana, with a 3-2 record, could be left on the outside looking in. There are still too many possibilities to parse them out, but here are their remaining opponents:
App St- @ Ga St, vs. Louisiana
Ark St- vs. Texas St, @ ULM, vs. Troy
Troy- vs. Texas St, @ Ark St
Ga State- vs. App St, vs. Idaho
Louisiana- vs. New Mexico St, vs. Ga Southern, @ App St
Here is how the bowl situation stands. Remember, there are 39 bowls, so 78 teams can attend.
Clinched eligibility for a bowl berth (59)
UCF
USF
Memphis
Houston
Navy
SMU
Clemson
NC State
Wake Forest
Louisville
Miami, Fl
Va Tech
Virginia
Oklahoma
TCU
Okla St
W Va
Iowa St
Ohio St
Mich St
Penn St
Michigan
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Iowa
FAU
FIU
Marshall
N Texas
UAB
S Miss
Army
Notre Dame
Ohio
Toledo
N Illinois
C Mich
W Mich
Boise St
Wyoming
Colo St
Fresno St
San Diego St
Wash St
Stanford
Washington
USC
Arizona
Georgia
S Carolina
Kentucky
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Miss St
Texas A&M
Troy
Ga St
App St
Need one more win for bowl eligibility (19)
Temple
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Texas
Kansas St
Texas Tech
Minnesota
Mid Tennessee
WKU
Akron
Utah St
Oregon
Cal
Ariz St
UCLA
Utah
Colorado
Missouri
Ole Miss
Teams needing 2 wins for bowl eligibility (24)
Tulane
Syracuse
Pitt
Duke
Rutgers
Maryland
Indiana
Nebraska
Purdue
ODU
La Tech
Miami, Oh
Buffalo
Air Force
UNLV
Tennessee
Vandy
Arkansas
Louisiana
ULM
S Alabama
New Mexico
Idaho needs to win all 3 of its remaining games
Florida could reach, if they win their last 2, and are able to schedule one more on Dec 2
Teams whose only chance is a waiver (6)
UConn
Cincinnati
UMass
E Mich
New Mexico
Hawaii
Eliminated from bowl consideration (19)
ECU
Tulsa
UNC
Baylor
Kansas
Illinois
Charlotte
Rice
UTEP
BYU
Bowling Green
Kent St
Ball St
Nevada
San Jose St
Oregon St
Texas St
Ga Southern
C Carolina
That's all for now! Until next time, may your day and your loved ones be blessed!
Stay with me here, and let me explain my thinking. Let's say the Dawgs win their last two regular season games- no sure thing- against Kentucky and Georgia Tech. If Auburn beats Alabama, in a fairly close game, then the rematch will be set. However, I can see the committee taking a one-loss Alabama team over an SEC Champion one-loss Georgia. The precedent was set last year in the Big Ten, where Ohio State was chosen over Big10 champion Penn State, mainly because of the Lion' 39 point loss to Michigan. Similar circumstances here. If Georgia meets Alabama, and wins, then it's more likely that no SEC team will make the playoff. Notre Dame's crushing loss to Miami completely devalued Georgia's earlier win over the Irish. At this point, I can see Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson, Miami, and Wisconsin as the top 6. If a one loss Clemson beats an undefeated Miami in the ACCCG, then both could make the playoff (same scenario we were talking about last week with Georgia and Alabama). Oklahoma, if it wins out, will be a lock. Wisconsin, if it wins out, will also be in. Georgia's only hope is to win their remaining games, and hope for lots of upsets. They are no longer in charge of their own destiny.
As mentioned last week, Georgia has already clinched the SEC East. South Carolina has now clinched 2nd place, and Kentucky 3rd. Florida put up a fight this week against the Gamecocks, but came up short. Tennessee has completely given up, and it's being reported that Butch Jones has been fired (now confirmed). Missouri has come on strong, winning its last 4 games, and could tie Kentucky for 3rd (the Wildcats own the tiebreaker, but it's third place, so who cares?). Vandy is hoping to beat Tennessee for the 2nd year in a row.
The SEC West will come down to the Iron Bowl November 25 at Auburn. The winner of that game will meet Georgia in the SECCG. I would be really surprised if Arkansas and Texas A&M retain their coaches for next year, as both have fallen far short of expectations. LSU has gotten much better lately, winning 4 of their last 5, and Mississippi State has improved their record from last year already, with one more win, and 2 games still to play (at Arkansas and versus Ole Miss at home).
Wisconsin has clinched the Big10 West for the same reason Georgia clinched the SEC East: the rest of the division was so bad. Northwestern is the best of the rest, which isn't saying much.
If Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State win out, and Ohio State defeats Illinois next week, there would be a 4-way tie at the top of the Big10 East. In this scenario, Ohio State would be the champion. Ohio State will clinch with a victory over Illinois and Michigan, or a loss by Penn State to either Nebraska or Maryland. Penn State needs to win both, have Ohio State lose one, and have Michigan State lose to either Maryland or Rutgers. Michigan State would need to win out, and hope Ohio State loses both. Michigan would need to win out and hope Penn State and Michigan State both lose one of their remaining games. Pretty complicated, much like NFL playoff scenarios with 2-3 games left in the season.
USC has clinched the PAC12 South. The winner of the Arizona-Arizona State game will most likely finish second. The rest of the division has 4 or more conference losses. The PAC12 North is still open to several possibilities. If Washington wins out, they would need for Stanford to lose to California. If Stanford beats Cal, they would need for Washington to beat Washington State, who would be champion if they win the Apple Cup. The Cougars are the only team that controls their destiny. Oregon, Cal, and Oregon State are afterthoughts.
Oklahoma will win the Big12 if they win their remaining 2 games against Kansas and West Virginia. The Mountaneers still have a shot, but would need to beat Texas and Oklahoma to set up tie breaker scenarios. Oklahoma State and TCU still have an outside shot, again based on there being a tie at the top. But remember, they only need to finish in the top 2 to play in the Big12 Championship Game. Oklahoma State has Kansas St and Kansas left (2 likely wins), and TCU has Texas Tech and Baylor to play (2 likely wins). Texas and Iowa State technically still have a shot, but it's remote. Assuming Oklahoma can win out, then TCU has the tie breaker over Oklahoma State. Still a lot to be decided in this conference!
Clemson has clinched the ACC Atlantic, and it's a good bet NC State will finish second. A win over either Wake Forest or North Carolina, or a loss by Wake Forest will sew up 2nd place for the Wolfpack. The rest of the division is mass of mediocrity; no one is very good, but then again, none are very bad, either. With Virginia's loss to Louisville last Saturday, Miami clinched the Coastal Division. Second place will be decided between, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Virginia.
If they both keep winning, the AAC East will be decided on Nov 24 when USF plays at UCF. Temple will clinch 3rd if it beats UCF or Tulsa, and could finish in a tie for 2nd if USF also loses their last 2 games. Memphis will clinch the West Division with a win over either SMU or East Carolina, or a loss by Houston to either Tulane or Navy. Navy is the likely 3rd place winner, but could finish second with a win over Houston on Nov 24.
Boise State will clinch the MWC Mountain Division with a win over Air Force or Fresno St, or a loss by Wyoming to either Fresno St or San Jose St. The best Colorado State, the expected division winner, can do is finish third. Fresno State has a much more difficult path to the West Division title: they need to beat Wyoming or Boise State, or hope San Diego State loses to either Nevada or New Mexico. UNLV could still win it with wins over New Mexico and Nevada, 2 losses by Fresno State, and two losses by San Diego State- not very likely. However, a 3-way tie is possible if UNLV wins out, Fresno State loses out, and SDS goes 1-1. Since each would be 1-1 against the others, they would need to go deeper into the tie breaker scenario, which is probably record within the division. In that case, it's possible they would still be tied with 4-1 records (unless Nevada is the team that beats SD State, in which case UNLV would be the division champion based on their win over Fresno St). Complicated? You bet!
Toledo has a magic number of 2, which means any combination of their wins and Northern Illinois losses equaling 2 will clinch the MAC West. Northern Illinois needs to beat Western and Central Michigan, and hope Toledo loses to either Bowling Green or Western Michigan. If Western Michigan can beat both, they would be division champion (they're the Auburn of the MAC). Unless Central Michigan also wins out (over Kent State and N Illinois), in which case they could be champion, unless Toledo wins one game. Another complicated scenario.
In the MAC East, the winner of the Ohio-Akron game on Tuesday in Akron will have the inside track. Miami has an outside shot, if they can finagle a 3-way tie, but that's pretty slim. The rest of the MAC teams have been eliminated, but could serve as spoilers.
FAU has all but clinched the CUSA East title. All they need is a win over either FIU or Charlotte, and their spot in the championship game is secured. FIU could spoil the fun by defeating FAU and WKU, but they would need for Charlotte to upset FAU. North Texas has already clinched the CUSA West by virtue of their wins over UAB on Sept 23 and Southern Miss on Sept 30. UAB can clinch 2nd place with a win over UTEP on Nov 25, or a loss by Southern Miss to either Charlotte or Marshall.
Finally, the Sun Belt seems destined for a shared conference title. Troy, Georgia State, and Appalachian State all lead with a 5-1 record, while Arkansas State is only a half-game behind at 4-1. Louisiana, with a 3-2 record, could be left on the outside looking in. There are still too many possibilities to parse them out, but here are their remaining opponents:
App St- @ Ga St, vs. Louisiana
Ark St- vs. Texas St, @ ULM, vs. Troy
Troy- vs. Texas St, @ Ark St
Ga State- vs. App St, vs. Idaho
Louisiana- vs. New Mexico St, vs. Ga Southern, @ App St
Here is how the bowl situation stands. Remember, there are 39 bowls, so 78 teams can attend.
Clinched eligibility for a bowl berth (59)
UCF
USF
Memphis
Houston
Navy
SMU
Clemson
NC State
Wake Forest
Louisville
Miami, Fl
Va Tech
Virginia
Oklahoma
TCU
Okla St
W Va
Iowa St
Ohio St
Mich St
Penn St
Michigan
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Iowa
FAU
FIU
Marshall
N Texas
UAB
S Miss
Army
Notre Dame
Ohio
Toledo
N Illinois
C Mich
W Mich
Boise St
Wyoming
Colo St
Fresno St
San Diego St
Wash St
Stanford
Washington
USC
Arizona
Georgia
S Carolina
Kentucky
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Miss St
Texas A&M
Troy
Ga St
App St
Need one more win for bowl eligibility (19)
Temple
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Texas
Kansas St
Texas Tech
Minnesota
Mid Tennessee
WKU
Akron
Utah St
Oregon
Cal
Ariz St
UCLA
Utah
Colorado
Missouri
Ole Miss
Teams needing 2 wins for bowl eligibility (24)
Tulane
Syracuse
Pitt
Duke
Rutgers
Maryland
Indiana
Nebraska
Purdue
ODU
La Tech
Miami, Oh
Buffalo
Air Force
UNLV
Tennessee
Vandy
Arkansas
Louisiana
ULM
S Alabama
New Mexico
Idaho needs to win all 3 of its remaining games
Florida could reach, if they win their last 2, and are able to schedule one more on Dec 2
Teams whose only chance is a waiver (6)
UConn
Cincinnati
UMass
E Mich
New Mexico
Hawaii
Eliminated from bowl consideration (19)
ECU
Tulsa
UNC
Baylor
Kansas
Illinois
Charlotte
Rice
UTEP
BYU
Bowling Green
Kent St
Ball St
Nevada
San Jose St
Oregon St
Texas St
Ga Southern
C Carolina
That's all for now! Until next time, may your day and your loved ones be blessed!
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