College Football Preview Part IX

Welcome back!

I hope you are enjoying reading this as much as I enjoy putting it together, and I hope it is part of your overall ritual for getting ready for the season.  As I said in part I, I tweaked my formula for my power rankings, and I think it will be much better this year. 

So far, I have previewed #s 130-51 (see parts 1-8), so today I'll cover #s 50-41.  Let's get to it!

50 Ohio

Coach: Frank Solich (14th yr, 20th overall)
Best Case: 11-1
Worst Case: 8-4
Notes: OL returns 4 starters and QB Nathan Rourke (ran for a record-setting 21 TDs); 3 of the top 4 wideouts return; K and P will be very solid (combo is perhaps the best in the MAC); return game should be strong; OU hasn't won a MAC championship since 1968; offense was 9th at 39.1ppg (1st MAC- best in school history!) and 34th in ypg (2nd MAC); rushing was 16th (1st MAC) and passing was 96th (9th MAC); defense was 44th in ppg (4th MAC and 50th in ypg (5th MAC); rush defense was 10th (1st MAC) and pass defense was 110th (last MAC); TO margin was -4 (90th FBS, 9th MAC); defense must replace 6 starters in the front 7; defense returns only 4 starters; Solich is the longest tenured "Group of 5" head coach; 8 starters return on offense.

49 Texas Tech

Coach: Kliff Kingsbury (6th yr, 6th overall)

Best Case: 6-6

Worst Case: 4-8

Notes: Defense forced 29 TOs, 6th in FBS and best in B12; offense was #23 in scoring (34.3-4th B12) and 16th in ypg (3rd B12); rushing was 94th (6th B12) and passing was 9th (3rd B12); defense gave up 33.2 ppg,  98th nationally-up from 128th in '16 (8th B12), but an 11.3 ppg improvement over 2016 !; defense was 105th in ypg (7th B12), including 62nd in rushing- up from 116th in '16 (7th B12) and 123rd in passing (8th B12); 10 starters return on defense; TO margin was +11 (13th FBS, 1st B12); kicking game was a disaster in '17, likely leading directly to at least 2 losses; QB position is unsettled, with 4 vying for the spot; new starters will be at almost every skill position on offense; offense returns 6 starters; TT ran the ball 45.9% of the time in '17; TT has not had a winning record in the B12 this decade (Kingsbury in 16-29 in the B12); TT is just 2-27 when trailing at the half under Kingsbury.

48 Fresno State

Coach: Jeff Tedford (2nd yr, 13th overall)

Best Case: 11-1

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: FS became just the 2nd team to go from double-digit losses in one year to double-digit wins the next (Miami, OH 2009-10); entire starting DL must be replaced; offense was 77th in scoring (th MWC) and 72nd in ypg (9th MWC); defense was 10th with 17.9 ppg  and 15th with 320.6ypg (both #2 MWC and best since 1991), including 11th against the run (1st MWC) and 43rd against the pass (5th MWC); K must be replaced, but rest of special teams are solid; 8 starters return on offense; defense returns 7 starters; defense had 90 TFL in '17.

47 Nebraska

Coach: Scott Frost (1st yr, 3rd overall)

Best Case: 7-5

Worst Case: 5-7

Notes: Opponents gained 5+ yds on 46.8% of their carries, 2nd worst in FBS (only UNLV was worse);offense was 84th in ppg and 87th in ypg (both 7th in B10); offense was 120th in rushing (13th B10) and 27th in passing (2nd B10); defense was 116th in scoring (13th B10), 101st in ypg (last B10), 115th in rushing (13th B10), and 60th in passing (11th B10); NU had only 10 rushes of 20+ yds in '17; K will be new and PR a return, but P is solid, as is KOR; NU hasn't won a conference championship since 1999; NU has a tough schedule in '18: cross division games are @Michigan, @Ohio St, Mich St, and they play @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, and @Iowa within their division; defense allowed 5.57 ypc in '17; NU was -7 in TO margin (106th); 4-8 record in '17 was their worst since 1961; offense returns 7 starters; 8 starters return on defense; NU's 5 home losses in '17 were the most since 1957.

46 Wake Forest

Coach: Dave Clawson (5th yr, 10th overall)

Best Case: 6-6

Worst Case: 4-8

Notes: WF averaged 6.3 ypp (26th) in '17, up from 4.6 (125th) in '16; offense was 21st with 35.3 ppg (best in program history!), and was 17th with 465.8 ypg, both 2nd ACC; rushing offense was 37th (5th ACC) and passing was 28th (3rd ACC); defense was 76th in ppg (11th ACC) and 113th in ypg (last ACC); rushing D was 89th (10th ACC) and passing D was 119th (alst ACC); OL returns all 5 starters, but only 1 non-starter has any significant experience; 6 starters return on defense; P returns, but the K will be new; offense returns 8 starters; TO margin was +8, 22nd in FBS and 2nd ACC; OL gave up only 20 sacks in '17.

45 San Diego State

Coach: Rocky Long (8th yr, 19th overall)

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 9-3

Notes: OL returns all 5 starters; 7 starters return on defense; opponents gained 10+ yds on only 7.8 plays per game in '17, the best in FBS; TO margin was +7; offense was 45th in scoring (4th MWC) and 64th in ypg (6th MWC); rush offense was 10th (2nd MWC) and pass O was 118th (10th MWC); defense was 21st in ppg (20.2), 33rd in rush D, and 15th in pas D, all 3rd in the MWC; total defense was 11th- 1st in MWC at 314.8 ypg; QB will be 3rd-yr starter Christian Chapman (35 career TDs and only 11 INTs); special teams are very good; SDSt is 32-9 over the last 3 seasons , 22-4 in the MWC with 2 conference championships; 7 of top 10 tacklers return; SDSt is one of only 7 teams to have 10+ wins each of the last 3 years.

44 UCLA

Coach: Chip Kelly (1st yr, 5th overall)

Best Case: 4-8

Worst Case: 3-9

Notes: Tough to find wins with this schedule: Cincinnati, @Okla, Fresno St, @Colorado, Washington, @Cal, Arizona, Utah, @Oregon, @Ariz St, USC, Stanford; defense shifting from a 4-3 to a 3-4; UCLA has not had a rusher top 600 yards since 2015; offense was 36th in ppg (5th PAC12) and 22nd in ypg (3rd PAC12); rushing was 116th (11th PAC12) and 4th in passing (2nd PAC12); defense was terrible: 117th in scoring (11th PAC12), 130th (last!) in rushing (287.4 ypg), 31st (2nd PAC12) in passing (opposing offenses didn't need to pass much...), and 123rd in total defense;  TO margin was -9 (115th-11th PAC12); K and P are solid; UCLA was 6-0 at home and 0-7 away in '17; offense returns 5 starters; defense returns 7 starters.

43 Duke

Coach: David Cutcliffe (11th yr, 17th overall)

Best Case: 10-2

Worst Case: 7-5

Notes: QB Daniel Jones will be a 3rd-yr starter; Duke was 6-0 when gaining 400 yds on offense, 1-6 when it didn't; Duke has not had a 1,000 yd rusher since 2003; offense was 80th in scoring and 88th in ypg (both 10th ACC); defense was 21st in scoring (20.2 ppg- 3rd ACC) and 21st in ypg (4th ACC), which includes 48th best rushing defense (7th ACC) and 16th pass D (3rd ACC); special teams are a huge question mark; offense averaged only 19.8 points in conference games; 8 starters return on defense; lost 4 games by 7 pts or less in '17; offense returns 7 starters.

42 Memphis

Coach: Mike Norvell (3rd yr, 3rd overall)

Best Case: 11-1

Worst Case: 8-4

Notes: Through INTs or PBUs, Memphis was responsible for 42.9% of opponents' incomplete passes, 6th in FBS; offense was 2nd in scoring (45.5 ppg- 2nd AAC) and 4th in ypg (532.1- 1st AAC); the run offense was 34th (6th AAC) and the passing O was 7th (1st AAC); defense was 102nd in scoring and 117th in ypg (both 8th AAC); TO margin was +15 (3rd, 2nd AAC); record-setting QB Riley Ferguson will need to be replaced; OL returns 4 starters; Tony Pollard had 4 KOR TDs in '17, and 6 total- he needs one more to set the NCAA record, and he's a junior; offense returns 7 starters; defense has 11 of top 14 tacklers returning, and 8 starters.

41 Iowa State

Coach: Matt Campbell (3rd yr, 7th overall)

Best Case: 8-4

Worst Case: 5-7

Notes: 4 of 5 losses in '17 were by 7 pts or less and the other loss was by 10; OL returns 4 starters; offense was 56th in scoring and 86th in ypg, both 8th B12; rushing O was 117th (9th B12) and passing was 30th (8th B12); defense was 26th in ppg and 86th in pasing D (both 2nd B12; rushing D was 23rd (4th B12) and 43rd in total D (3rd B12); TO margin was +10 (16th FBS, 2nd B12); K and P will be new; in '17, ISU had its 1st unbeaten and untied October since 1937!; 6 starters return on offense; defense also returns 6 starters.

That's it for now.  Please feel free to leave your comments.  Tomorrow, I will detail #s 40-31.  Until then, may you and your loved ones be blessed!