Paul's Picks- Bowls Part II
Welcome Back!
The first few bowls have been completed, and so far, I'm 3-2 (.600). Not great, but not too bad either. Fortunately, the games have been competitive so far, and I hope that continues. The CFP starts tonight, but my 2-year record of watching at least part of every bowl game will be in jeopardy, as I will be on the road for the next 2 days. That means I'll be listening to the games on Sirius XM, but probably won't get a chance to watch (unless I can get my wife to drive and let me watch on my phone!).
Bowl games are notoriously difficult to pick, as opt outs, coaching changes, and motivation (or lack thereof) can all affect the outcome. But I shall give it the old college try, and predict the winners with very little knowledge of who will or will not be playing for every team. Yay!
Now... on with the picks!
Friday December 20
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Ohio vs Jacksonville State (Orlando, FL)- Not surprisingly, these teams have never met on the field of play before, and this is the 1st appearance for each in the Cure Bowl, which has been played since 2015. The Bobcats are 7-8 in bowls, and have a 5-game winning streak. They were 10-3 this year, winning their last 6, including in the MAC CG where they reversed a loss to Miami earlier in the season. Ohio won each of those 6 games by at least 17 points each, with 3 wins by 31+ points. The Gamecocks are 1-0 in bowls, winning in OT last year over Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl. JSU had an 8-game winning streak going before they lost to WKU in the season finale, but they got immediate revenge in the CUSA CG the next week, pounding the Hilltoppers by a 52-15 score. It's rare to pit 2 conference champions against each other in a bowl game, so this one is rather refreshing (I wish we did more of this). Bobcats win a close one.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Tulane vs Florida (Tampa, FL)- The Gators lead this series 13-6-2, winning the last 11, but they haven't played since 1984. Those 11 wins started in 1958, and 9 occurred by 1969, with the other in 1982. UF won the 1st contest in 1915, and again in 1922, the 1st year they were both a part of the Southern Conference. The Green Wave were 6-1-2 between 1917 and 1947 against the Gators. and a majority of their matchups came as co-members SEC, as Tulane was a charter member when the conference formed in 1933 (they left after the 1965 season). The Gasparilla Bowl has been played since 2008, and while this will be Tulane's 1st appearance, UF is 0-1 here, with a loss against UCF in 2021. The AAC/Big East is 6-3 in this bowl, while the SEC is 1-2. The Green Wave are 7-9 in bowl games, losing to Va Tech last year in the Military Bowl. They finished this year at 9-4, but lost their last 2 games, including in the AAC CG to Army by a score of 35-14. The Gators are 24-24 all-time in bowls, but have lost 3 in a row. They are on a bit of a roll as they won 3 straight games to end their season at 7-5, and they were the only team in the SEC to finish at 4-4 in the conference (10th place). UF wins, but I'll be rooting for Tulane.
College Football Playoff First Round Game
10 Indiana @ 7 Notre Dame- The Fighting Irish lead the series 23-5-1, winning the last 6 (from 1951-1991). 4 of Indiana's wins came between 1898 and 1906, when they started the series 4-3, started by a 0-0 tie in 1907. Their other victory came in 1950 in Bloomington, meaning they haven't won in South Bend since the 1st meeting in 1898! However, the tie did happen in South Bend, and one of the wins (1906) was in Indianapolis. This will be Notre Dame's 3rd appearance in the CFP, where they are 0-2, losing in 2018 and 2020, and they were also 0-1 in BCS Championship Games, losing in 2012. The Hoosiers have never been part of the championship structure, and have never won a national championship, with their highest ever AP Poll finish being #4 in both 1967 (9-2 under HC John Pont) and 1945 (9-0-1 under HC Bo McMillin). While this isn't technically a bowl game, IU is 4-9 in bowls, losing their last 3. But this has been a stellar season for the Hoosiers, as they are 11-1, with their only loss to fellow CFP participant Ohio State. The Fighting Irish have 8 AP National Championships (and 5 others by organizations like the NFF in 1964, and 4 before the AP was established in 1936), but their last one was in 1988 under HC Lou Holtz. The Irish also finished 11-1 with their only blemish an inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois in early September (2nd game). They are 21-21 in bowls, winning their last 2. Both teams have been blowing out opponents, with ND having a MOV of 26.25 pts, and IU with a MOV of 28.67 pts. The Hoosiers have scored 31+ points in 10 of 12 games, only being held to less by Michigan (20-15 win) and Ohio State (38-15 loss), and their defense has been equally as impressive, holding 9 foes to 17 points or less. The Hoosiers are 3-1 on the road. The Irish have scored have scored 31+ 9 times, and in their last 10 games, have scored at least 28 points in each, and their defense has held 10 opponents to 16 points or less, with their worst game in the closer, when they allowed 35 against USC in a 14-point win. This is a matchup between 2 teams with explosive offenses and shut down defenses, and just may be the best game of the entire CFP! Hoosiers in the upset (as long as they don't get swallowed by the moment)!
Saturday, December 21
College Football Playoff First Round Games
11 SMU @ 6 Penn State- The Nittany Lions lead this brief series 1-0-1, winning 26-21 in 1978 in State College, and playing to a 13-13 tie in the 1948 Cotton Bowl. This will be the 1st appearance in the CFP for each team, and neither played in a BCS Championship Game. Penn State last won a National Championship in 1986 (12-0), being voted #1 in the AP (and other polls), and were also #1 in 1982 (11-1), both under former HC Joe Paterno, though they were voted #1 in 1911 and 1912 by the NCF under HC Bill Hollenback. The Mustangs have never finished a season #1, reaching a high #2 in 1982 under HC Bobby Collins (11-0-1), and #3 in 1947 under HC Madison Bell (9-0-2). SMU was actually ranked #1 at some point during the 1950 season (after a preseason ranking of #10), but ended the season unranked as they finished 6-4. Though these 1st round playoff games are technically not bowl games (later rounds are), I'm going to present the records of the teams in postseason games. The Mustangs are 7-11-1 in bowls, losing their last 4 (since 2017). The Ponies are 11-2 this season, losing to BYU in the 3rd game of the year, and to Clemson on a FG as time expired in the ACC CG. In between, SMU won 9 straight games, and they finished the season with an average MOV of 17.69 ppg. The Lions are 31-20-2 in bowl games, losing to Ole Miss last year in the Peach Bowl. Interestingly, each of their last 3 bowl losses were to SEC teams. PSU also finished the season at 11-2, losing to Ohio State and then to Oregon in the Big Ten CG by just 7 points. Their average MOV is 17.23 ppg, which is almost the same as SMU's. The Lions have scored 33+ in 8 of 13 games, and their defense has held 8 foes to 13 points or less. The Mustangs have scored 33 plus 9 times (28+ twelve times!), but their defense has been less proficient, giving up 24+ 7 times, with a high of 42 to TCU, but they also held 4 foes to 10 points or less. Penn State wins.
12 Clemson @ 5 Texas- Though these teams have played a combined 109 bowl games, they have never met on the gridiron! The Tigers are 6-4 in CFP games, with 2 National Championships, in 2016 and 2018, but they never played in the BCS CG. They also have an AP National Championship in 1981 under HC Danny Ford (12-0). Clemson is 27-23 in bowl games, winning each of their last 3, and this year, they finished the season 10-3 with a dramatic win over SMU in the ACC CG. Their losses were to CFP participant Georgia in their season opener, and to Louisville and rival South Carolina at home, so they were 4-0 in road games (the game with UGA was at a neutral site), and they've won their last 5 road games overall. Th Longhorns are 0-1 in CFP games, losing to Washington in the 1st round last year, but they were 1-1 in BCS CGs, beating USC in 2006 (2005 season), and losing to Alabama in 2010 (2009 season). They also have AP National Championships in 1963 (11-0) and 1969 (11-0), both under HC Darrell Royal, and the NFF and UPI gave them one after the 1970 season (10-1) despite a loss in the Cotton Bowl. The Horns are 31-26-2 in bowl games, losing their last 2. This year, UT is 11-2 with both losses coming to UGA, once in Austin, and once in OT in the SEC CG. This means that 3 of the teams' 5 collective losses came at the hands of the Bulldogs! Clemson has a MOV of 13.23; UT's is 21.15. CU has scored 29+ points 8 times, and have held 8 foes to 20 points or less. Texas has scored 31+ against 8 opponents, and have held 10 foes to 17 points or less. Texas wins big.
9 Tennessee @ 8 Ohio State- The Volunteers own the only victory in this limited series, winning 20-14 in the 1996 Fiesta Bowl. The Buckeyes have appeared in the CFP 5 times, going 3-4 overall with 1 National Championship, in 2014, the inaugural version. In the BCS, the Bucks were 1-2, winning in 2002 and losing in 2007 (2006 season) and 2008 (2007 season), both to SEC teams. In fact, OSU is 2-10 against SEC teams in bowl games, 4-14 if you include Texas and Texas A&M, who were not members at the times they played. Overall, the Buckeyes are 27-29 in bowls, losing their last 2. This will be UT's 1st appearance in the CFP, but they were 1-0 in the BCS CG, winning in 1998 over FSU in the 1st iteration of the game, so this game matches the 2 teams that won the inaugural championships in the previous 2 formats! UT is 31-25 in bowls, winning their last 2, both over ranked foes. The Vols also have an AP National Championship in 1951 (10-1) under legendary coach General Robert Neyland, with OSU having AP Championships in 1954 (10-0) and1968 (10-0) both under Woody Hayes, and in 1942 (9-1) under Paul Brown. They also were proclaimed national champs by other polls in 1957 (9-1), 1961 (9-1) and 1970 (9-1), all under Woody Hayes. This year, the Volunteers are 10-2, with losses at Arkansas and CFP participant Georgia, so they are 2-2 in road games, 3-2 if you count the neutral site win over NC State. The Bucks are also 10-2, with losses to CFP #1 Oregon by 1 point in Eugene, and a 3 point loss at home to Michigan, so they are 7-1 at home. these teams have similar MOV's, with OSU at 24.58 and UT at 23.33. The Bucks have scored 31+ in 9 games, and have 11 of their 12 opponents to 17 points or less (Oregon scored 32). The Vols have scored 33+ only 6 times, but their defense have held 10 foes to 19 points or less, allowing 31 to UGA and 23 to Vandy in their last game. They actually held 4 opponents to 10 points or less, logging 2 shutouts, similar to OSU who held 6 foes to 7 points or less with 2 shutouts. This looks like a defensive battle, and if it's a close low scoring game, I like UT's chances, as they are 2-1 in that situation while the Buckeyes are 2-2. Tennessee wins.
Monday December 23
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs UTSA (Conway, SC)- This is another of many 1st-time meetings in bowls. That's understandable since they have never been in the same conference, and have been at the FBS for such a short time, UTSA since 2012, and CCU since 2017. The Chants are 2-2 in bowls, winning in the Hawaii Bowl last year and the Roadrunners are 1-4 in bowls, getting their 1st win last year over Marshall in the Frisco Bowl. Neither team has played in the Myrtle Beach Bowl before, but the Sun Belt is 2-1 here, with the AAC at 1-0. Both teams are 6-6, but the Chanticleers have lost 2 of their last 3 while the Roadrunners have won 3 of their last 4. They are very similar in that UTSA has an average MOV of 0.92 ppg and CCU is at -0.75 ppg. This game will be played in CCU's home stadium (the Chants are 3-3 at home), though they are listed as the visitor. With UTSA 0-6 on the road this year (and losers of 7 straight away from Texas), I'm riding with the Chanticleers. CCU wins.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Northern Illinois vs Fresno State (Boise, ID)- The Huskies lead this series 3-2, with wins in 1973, 1990, and in the 2010 Humanitarian Bowl (the forerunner to this bowl, started in 1997), and the Bulldogs won in 1972 and 1991. FS is 2-1 in this bowl (wins in 2004 over Virginia and in 2007 over Ga Tech), and NIU is 1-0 (the aforementioned 2010 win over Fresno). The Huskies are 5-10 in bowls, but won last year in the Camellia Bowl; the Bulldogs are 17-15 in bowls, and winners of their last 5. NIU is 7-5 this year, and won 3 of their last 4, but their biggest win was in week 2 over Notre Dame. FSU is 6-6 and lost 3 of their last 4, so they seem to be a little short on momentum. This game is a tossup in my mind, so I'll go with the teams with the better head-to-head history. Huskies win.
Tuesday, December 24
Hawaii Bowl
USF vs San Jose State (Honolulu, HI)- The Bulls pounded the Spartans 42-22 in San Jose back in the opening week of the 2017 season, and that remains their only meeting before now. The Hawaii Bowl has been played since 2002, and while USF has never played here, SJSU is 0-1, losing last year to CCU. WAC/MWC teams are 8-12 in this bowl, while AAC teams are 0-2. The Spartans are 7-6 all-time in bowl games, losing their last 3; the Bulls are 7-4, defeating Syracuse 45-0 last year in the Boca Raton Bowl. This year, SJSU is 7-5, but lost 2 of their last 3 (to Boise State and UNLV), but that includes a win over Stanford, and they also have wins at Air Force and at Oregon State. USF is 6-6, winning 2 of their last 3 and 4 of their last 6, but with no significant wins. Their average MOV is similar, with the Bulls at 2.42 and the Spartans at 1.08. SJSU wins in a mild upset.
Thursday, December 26
Game Above Sports Bowl
Pittsburgh vs Toledo (Detroit, MI)- These teams have met 3 times previously, with the Panthers winning twice (2002 & 2006 at home) and the Rockets winning once (2003 at home). This bowl began in 2014 as the Quick Lane Bowl and was renamed (repurchased? bought out?) this year. This will be Toledo's 1st appearance, but Pitt won 34-30 over E Mich back in 2019. The Panthers are 15-22 in bowls, winning in their last appearance in the 2022 Sun Bowl over UCLA. Toledo is 11-10 in bowls, but lost to Wyoming last year, and have lost 5 of their last 6. The Panthers won their 1st 7 games this season, but have been on a 5-game losing streak since losing by 23 to SMU in early November. The Rockets are also 7-5, losing their last 2. The teams have similar MOV's, with Pitt at 5.08 and Toledo at 5.33. Panthers win.
Rate Bowl
Rutgers vs Kansas State (Phoenix, AZ)- The Scarlet Knights own the only victory in the series, a 37-10 win in the 2006 Texas Bowl. This bowl has been known by several names since its inception in 1989- the Copper Bowl, the Insight Bowl, the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, the Cactus Bowl (the original preferred name), the Cheez-It Bowl, and then the Guaranteed Rate Bowl (the company has since rebranded as just Rate- guess it's not guaranteed anymore...). The Wildcats are 3-1 here, winning in 1993, 2013 and 2017 and losing in 2001, with all games being decided by at least 17 points. Rutgers is 0-1, losing 45-40 in 2005 to Arizona State. Big XII teams are 15-5 in this bowl, while Big Ten teams are 6-6. The Wildcats are 11-14 overall in bowl games, winning in the Pop Tarts Bowl last year; the Scarlet Knights are 7-5 in bowls, winning the Pinstripe Bowl over Miami, Fl last year. KSU is 8-4, but finished with 3 losses in their last 4 games, causing them to miss out on making the Big XII CG. Rutgers is 7-5, winning 3 of their last 4, giving them their 1st 7-win regular season since they were 7-5 in 2014 under HC Kyle Flood. The Cats have a MOV of 7.83; the Knights are at 4.08. KSU wins.
68 Ventures Bowl
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green (Mobile, AL)- The Falcons won the only previous meeting, 17-0, in 1974 in Bowling Green, Oh. The 68 Ventures Bowl has been played since 1999, and it has been known as the Mobile Alabama Bowl, the GMAC Bowl, the GoDaddy.com Bowl, the GoDaddy Bowl, the Dollar General Bowl, and finally the LendingTree Bowl. The Red Wolves will be making their 5th appearance here, the most of any team, and they are 2-2 so far, winning in 2013 and 2014, and losing in 2012 and 2015 (2014 season). BGSU has the 2nd most appearances, just 1 behind ASU, and are 1-2 so far, winning in 2004, and losing in 2008 and 2015. The reason the dates seem off is that this game has sometimes been played in December, and sometimes in January. MAC teams are 9-12 here, SBC teams are 10-4. Overall the Falcons are 5-10 in bowls, losing their last 3 (since 2015), while the Red Wolves are 4-6, losing to NIU last year in the Camellia Bowl. Both teams are 7-5, with BGSU at a MOV of 6.5 and ASU at -7.42. Bowling Green wins.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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