Paul's Picks Week 14
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was a pretty terrible 40-24, for a .625 winning percentage. Overall, I am 610-216, a .738 win percentage. I don't think I'm going to get back to 75%, because I'm picking several upsets this week, and bowls are basically a crapshoot. It's almost impossible to get above 50% simply because of all the bowl distractions for players, the long layoffs, the ones choosing not to play, the academic suspensions, etc. Anyway, I'll worry about those later. On to the games!
Friday, November 30
Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo (Detroit)- The Huskies have stumbled into the championship game, losing their last 2 games to Miami and WMU. The Bulls have been solid all year with just the 1 hiccup against Ohio 2 weeks ago (52-17 loss in Athens). NIU has the better defense, but Buffalo is better on offense. Buffalo wins.
Utah vs. Washington (Santa Clara)- After losing to Auburn on opening day, the Huskies reeled off 5 straight wins, then lost 2 of 3, before finishing the season with 3 straight wins. The Utes had a rough 2-2 start, but have been rolling since (despite injuries) with 7 wins in their last 8 games. UW won the 1st meeting, on Sept 15 in Salt Lake City, but I think Utah wins the rematch.
Saturday, December 1
Texas vs. Oklahoma (Arlington)- The Longhorns won the 1st times these 2 met (oct 6 in Dallas), but they had a midseason stumble, losing 2 straight, that put this championship game berth in doubt. The Sooners rebounded from that loss by winning their last 6 games. Call it a hunch, but I believe that Texas' defense will do just enough to slow the Sooners, and their offense will get 1 more score than the OU offense. The result may hinge on a defensive or special team score. UT wins a close one!
Drake @ Iowa State- This is a makeup game for ISU from Sep 1, when weather cancelled their game against South Dakota State. The Cyclones don't need this for bowl eligibility, but they win easily.
Louisiana @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers have only 2 losses this year: in OT @Penn State and @Ga Southern. The Ragin' Cajuns have 4 losses, but 3 were on the road: @Miss St, @Alabama, and @Troy. Their other loss was to CCU at home- hard to explain- but they have won their last 3. UL will keep it close for a while, but ASU will pull away late in the 1st half or in the 2nd.
ECU @ NC State- The Wolfpack lost their game against W Virginia on Sept 15 due to weather, while the Pirates lost their game the same weekend against Va Tech ( no idea why they didn't just reschedule their game with VT, since both are playing this weekend...). NCSU rolls.
Akron @ South Carolina- This is another game between 2 teams that had to cancel earlier games; SC vs Marshall (don't know why they're playing different teams this weekend instead of each other), and Akron vs Nebraska (Why not have VT play NC St as previously scheduled, SC play Marshall as also previously scheduled, and ECU play Akron? That would have given us 3 better matchups...). Gamecocks should defeat the Zips easily.
Marshall @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies have had a disappointing season, and are trying for bowl eligibility. However, they've lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Thundering Herd have won 3 straight, and 5 of 6, and their only losses are to NC St, Mid Tenn, and @ Sou Miss. VT may be expecting a sure win, but they're in for a rude awakening. Marshall wins!
UAB @ Middle Tennessee- The Blazers have had a wonderful season, but have lost 2 straight, including to the Blue Raiders last weekend, 27-3. If that game had been close, I might have picked UAB. MT wins, but it will be much closer than last week.
Norfolk State @ Liberty- This is a rescheduled game from Sep 15. I could be wrong, but my understanding is if the Flames win this, they will play in the AutoNation Cure Bowl. Liberty will win against a mediocre FCS team.
Stanford @ Cal- This game was rescheduled from Nov 17 due to the wildfires, as it was apparent that neither team was going to win the division. The Bears have come on strong at the end, winning 4 of their last 5 (only loss by 6 to Wash St), and Stanford is on a 2-game winning streak (against Oregon St and UCLA, the 2 worst teams in the PAC 12). Cal hasn't won since 2009, but I think they break their 8 game losing streak against the Cardinal.
Memphis @ UCF- The Tigers almost upset the Knights on Oct 13, and that was with UCF QB McKenzie Milton healthy. However, that was also at home, and this game is in Orlando. Memphis has won only 4 straight, but I think they break UCF's 24-game winning streak.
Alabama vs. Georgia (Atlanta)- These 2 teams meet again in the same location as January's epic National Championship Game, in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in downtown Atlanta. The Crimson Tide have been rolling over everyone, as has UGA (except LSU, obviously). No one has been able to stay within 3 touchdowns of the Tide. The Dawgs, however, appear to have the offense capable of being explosive enough to keep up with them, and a defense capable of getting a few stops. If this comes down to the kicking game, UGA has the definite advantage. Turnovers may play a big factor (if there are any), but I have a feeling the Bulldogs are going to pull this one out and exact revenge. Besides, I picked the Dawgs to make the playoffs in my preseason predictions, so I HAVE to roll with them!
Fresno State @ Boise State- The Broncos won the 1st meeting between these 2 on Nov 9, 24-17. This will be the 4th time in the last 2 seasons that these teams have met, so they probably know each other pretty well. Of these 4 games, 3 will have been in Boise, with BS winning those 3 and FS winning in Fresno. I think the Bulldogs are ready to finally win in Boise. FS wins a close one!
Clemson vs. Pitt (Charlotte)- I'll be shocked if this game is even close, and I'll be even more shocked if the Panthers pull off the upset, like they did in 2016 (at Clemson!). Tigers roll.
Northwestern vs. Ohio State (Indianapolis)- The Wildcats have been winning by using smoke and mirrors, while the Buckeyes have been winning with offense and luck. The real question is, which OSU team will show up? The one that destroyed Michigan, or the one that relied on a QB missing a wide open receiver in OT against Maryland? Or the one that got stomped by 6-6 Purdue? The Buckeyes seem to play down to their competition, and I'm betting that's what happens here. This is my UPSET SPECIAL- NW wins!
If everything works out like I predict, the 4 playoff teams will be Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Alabama. If Georgia loses, they may need for Oklahoma and Ohio State to lose to reach an immediate rematch with Alabama. But what if OSU, and OU wins, but UGA loses a game on a late score (or in OT like last year)? Could the committee keep Georgia in the top 4 as one of the 4 best teams? How can you drop a team for doing what was expected (losing to the #1 team), especially if it is close? I certainly understand the arguments for and against OSU and OU, but there is an argument there for the Dawgs as well. Of course, if Alabama blows them out, its a moot point. Unless OU and OSU also lose. Could that open the door for UCF if it wins? And what if they also lose? Michigan?
Utah vs. Washington (Santa Clara)- After losing to Auburn on opening day, the Huskies reeled off 5 straight wins, then lost 2 of 3, before finishing the season with 3 straight wins. The Utes had a rough 2-2 start, but have been rolling since (despite injuries) with 7 wins in their last 8 games. UW won the 1st meeting, on Sept 15 in Salt Lake City, but I think Utah wins the rematch.
Saturday, December 1
Texas vs. Oklahoma (Arlington)- The Longhorns won the 1st times these 2 met (oct 6 in Dallas), but they had a midseason stumble, losing 2 straight, that put this championship game berth in doubt. The Sooners rebounded from that loss by winning their last 6 games. Call it a hunch, but I believe that Texas' defense will do just enough to slow the Sooners, and their offense will get 1 more score than the OU offense. The result may hinge on a defensive or special team score. UT wins a close one!
Drake @ Iowa State- This is a makeup game for ISU from Sep 1, when weather cancelled their game against South Dakota State. The Cyclones don't need this for bowl eligibility, but they win easily.
Louisiana @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers have only 2 losses this year: in OT @Penn State and @Ga Southern. The Ragin' Cajuns have 4 losses, but 3 were on the road: @Miss St, @Alabama, and @Troy. Their other loss was to CCU at home- hard to explain- but they have won their last 3. UL will keep it close for a while, but ASU will pull away late in the 1st half or in the 2nd.
ECU @ NC State- The Wolfpack lost their game against W Virginia on Sept 15 due to weather, while the Pirates lost their game the same weekend against Va Tech ( no idea why they didn't just reschedule their game with VT, since both are playing this weekend...). NCSU rolls.
Akron @ South Carolina- This is another game between 2 teams that had to cancel earlier games; SC vs Marshall (don't know why they're playing different teams this weekend instead of each other), and Akron vs Nebraska (Why not have VT play NC St as previously scheduled, SC play Marshall as also previously scheduled, and ECU play Akron? That would have given us 3 better matchups...). Gamecocks should defeat the Zips easily.
Marshall @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies have had a disappointing season, and are trying for bowl eligibility. However, they've lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Thundering Herd have won 3 straight, and 5 of 6, and their only losses are to NC St, Mid Tenn, and @ Sou Miss. VT may be expecting a sure win, but they're in for a rude awakening. Marshall wins!
UAB @ Middle Tennessee- The Blazers have had a wonderful season, but have lost 2 straight, including to the Blue Raiders last weekend, 27-3. If that game had been close, I might have picked UAB. MT wins, but it will be much closer than last week.
Norfolk State @ Liberty- This is a rescheduled game from Sep 15. I could be wrong, but my understanding is if the Flames win this, they will play in the AutoNation Cure Bowl. Liberty will win against a mediocre FCS team.
Stanford @ Cal- This game was rescheduled from Nov 17 due to the wildfires, as it was apparent that neither team was going to win the division. The Bears have come on strong at the end, winning 4 of their last 5 (only loss by 6 to Wash St), and Stanford is on a 2-game winning streak (against Oregon St and UCLA, the 2 worst teams in the PAC 12). Cal hasn't won since 2009, but I think they break their 8 game losing streak against the Cardinal.
Memphis @ UCF- The Tigers almost upset the Knights on Oct 13, and that was with UCF QB McKenzie Milton healthy. However, that was also at home, and this game is in Orlando. Memphis has won only 4 straight, but I think they break UCF's 24-game winning streak.
Alabama vs. Georgia (Atlanta)- These 2 teams meet again in the same location as January's epic National Championship Game, in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in downtown Atlanta. The Crimson Tide have been rolling over everyone, as has UGA (except LSU, obviously). No one has been able to stay within 3 touchdowns of the Tide. The Dawgs, however, appear to have the offense capable of being explosive enough to keep up with them, and a defense capable of getting a few stops. If this comes down to the kicking game, UGA has the definite advantage. Turnovers may play a big factor (if there are any), but I have a feeling the Bulldogs are going to pull this one out and exact revenge. Besides, I picked the Dawgs to make the playoffs in my preseason predictions, so I HAVE to roll with them!
Fresno State @ Boise State- The Broncos won the 1st meeting between these 2 on Nov 9, 24-17. This will be the 4th time in the last 2 seasons that these teams have met, so they probably know each other pretty well. Of these 4 games, 3 will have been in Boise, with BS winning those 3 and FS winning in Fresno. I think the Bulldogs are ready to finally win in Boise. FS wins a close one!
Clemson vs. Pitt (Charlotte)- I'll be shocked if this game is even close, and I'll be even more shocked if the Panthers pull off the upset, like they did in 2016 (at Clemson!). Tigers roll.
Northwestern vs. Ohio State (Indianapolis)- The Wildcats have been winning by using smoke and mirrors, while the Buckeyes have been winning with offense and luck. The real question is, which OSU team will show up? The one that destroyed Michigan, or the one that relied on a QB missing a wide open receiver in OT against Maryland? Or the one that got stomped by 6-6 Purdue? The Buckeyes seem to play down to their competition, and I'm betting that's what happens here. This is my UPSET SPECIAL- NW wins!
If everything works out like I predict, the 4 playoff teams will be Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Alabama. If Georgia loses, they may need for Oklahoma and Ohio State to lose to reach an immediate rematch with Alabama. But what if OSU, and OU wins, but UGA loses a game on a late score (or in OT like last year)? Could the committee keep Georgia in the top 4 as one of the 4 best teams? How can you drop a team for doing what was expected (losing to the #1 team), especially if it is close? I certainly understand the arguments for and against OSU and OU, but there is an argument there for the Dawgs as well. Of course, if Alabama blows them out, its a moot point. Unless OU and OSU also lose. Could that open the door for UCF if it wins? And what if they also lose? Michigan?
That's it for now. On Monday, look for the next installment of my TWIF Notes. And don't forget to follow this blog and leave a comment, and please share with your friends. Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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