Odds and Ends 12/19/18

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Welcome Back!

Here at Odds and Ends, I plan to look at some stats, trends, storylines, etc. as they play out.  I will also give my opinion on some issues, but you can take that for what it's worth.

Today, I want to explore how my preseason conference picks turned out and compare them with the most popular preseason magazines- Phil Steele, Lindy's, Athlon, Street & Smith's- and the media predictions from each conference's media days.  I use my own formula, drawing from outside sources, to come up with my picks.  To see how I did, I use the formula from the Chris Stassen web site (as outlined in the 2018 Phil Steele College Football Preview magazine, pg. 6).  Basically, you take your conference picks, compare them to how they turn out, and assign a score.  If you pick a team 1st in their division, and they finish 2nd, that's 1 point.  If they finish 3rd, that's 2 points, etc.  The object is to have the lowest score.  The only "difficult" part is deciding what to do with ties, but that actually helps the score.  If 2 teams tie for 3rd, for example, then you can count them as either 3rd or 4th, so it is 0 points if you have one (or both) of those teams in either the 3rd or 4th position.  Now that that's as clear as mud, here is what I found.

 Everybody was wrong on Syracuse.  We all picked them to finish last (7th) in the Atlantic Division in the ACC, but they ended up 2nd.  Other teams we picked that were 4 or more spots off (PS= Phil Steele, L=Lindy's, A=Athlon, SS= Street & Smith's, M=Media, PA= Paul Anderson- that's me!): Louisville (4-L); Pitt (5-PS, 4-PA, L,M); Duke (4-PS), North Carolina (5-PS); Northwestern (4-M); FAU (4-ALL); Arizona State (4-A, SS, M).

 We tended to get the top of the conferences right, and the bottom right, so most of our misses were the 2-6 slots.  The conference we were closest on (as a group) was the MAC.  The P5 conference we were closest on was the Big 10.

 The conference we were most wrong on was the ACC.  Street & Smith's was the best for the ACC, CUSA, and the MAC.  Lindy's and I were best on the AAC.  Athlon picked the Big 12  best.  Athlon was also closest on the Big 10, getting the entire East correct.  Phil Steele and I were closest on the SBC, but he was the most off on the Independents (the rest of us tied, except for the media, which did not have a pick in this category).  Phil Steele and Lindy's tied in the MWC, while Lindy's and I tied in the PAC 12, and Athlon and I tied for the SEC.

 And now the moment you've all been waiting for!  With bated breath, I'm sure...

 Here are the results (reminder, the Independents did not have a media days, so there is no pick there.  Not sure how to reflect that in their score, but almost everyone else was off by 4, so you could just add that total to their score, if you want):

 Remember- lowest score wins 

 1. Paul Anderson 113.5
2. Lindy's 114
3. Street and Smith's 123
4. Lindy's 125
5. Media 125 (+4 for Independents=129)
6. Phil Steele 135

 Assuming I did the math right, (I don't make mistakes- I thought I did once, but I was wrong...), I had the best results!  Not too bad for a humble blogger.  I'm a little surprised that Phil Steele finished below the others, as he's generally the best, but this makes 2 years in a row that he hasn't finished first.


That's all for now.  Tomorrow, I will have my picks for Bowl Week 2.  Feel free to leave a comment.  Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!

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