Paul's Picks- Bowls 3

Welcome Back!

So far, I am 11-3 in the bowl games, which I think is not too shabby!  Generally, if anyone is above 50% in predicting the bowl games, that's pretty good.  Or pretty lucky.  Because predicting bowls is fraught with difficulty.  There are coaching changes, academic suspensions, behavior suspensions, players not playing to prepare for the NFL Draft, injuries, and a host of other issues, not the least of which are the location of the game and the focus level of the players.  Which team will be more motivated?  Take the Quick Lane Bowl, for example.  The game is in Detroit, which is closer to Minnesota, but the Gophers just suspended 6 players.  Will that galvanize the team?  Or will it weaken it?  Then again, Georgia Tech is playing their last game under Paul Johnson.  Will that motivate them?  Or will they be distracted?  And how will the new redshirt rule affect the bowls?  I expect to see a lot of freshmen who played in 3 or less games get playing time.

Here are the conference standings for bowl games thus far.  All of the Power 5 will have played at least one bowl game by the end of December 27 (Thursday) when Vandy takes on Baylor.

CUSA 4-2

Sun Belt 3-1

Independents 2-0

MWC 2-2

ACC 1-0

AAC 1-3

MAC 1-5

SEC 0-0

Big 10 0-0

Big 12 0-0

Pac 12 0-1

Anyway, let's get started.

Wednesday, December 26

Boston College vs Boise State (1st Responder Bowl-Dallas) The Broncos are 10-3, losing the MWCCG in OT to Fresno St (who already won their bowl over another 7-5 team in Ariz St).  The Eagles started the season like a house afire, but faded late with 3 straight losses to end the season.  Boise State pulls out a close one.

Minnesota vs Georgia Tech (Quick Lane Bowl-Detroit) The Yellow Jackets started the season 1-3, then won 6 of their next 7 before losing the closer at UGA.  The Golden Gophers overcame a 4-game losing streak mid-season to qualify for a bowl by defeating Wisconsin to end their regular season.  This will be Paul Johnson's last game as coach at Ga Tech, so I think they send him out with a win.

Cal vs TCU (Cheez-It Bowl-Phoenix) The Golden Bears qualified for a bowl for the 1st time since 2015 while the Horned Frogs are in their 5th straight bowl.  Most Bear fans will consider this season a success, but TCU fans are very disappointed.  However, TCU the Frogs won 3 of their last 4 to achieve bowl eligibility, and I think they carry that momentum to a victory.

Thursday, December 27

Temple vs Duke (Independence Bowl-Shreveport) The Blue Devils started the season 5-1, then lost 4 of their last 6.  The Owls inexplicably lost their opening 2 games-both at home to Villanova and Buffalo- then won 8 of their final 10.  Both teams are 4-2 away from home.  I think Duke has greater talent.  Duke wins.

Miami, Fl vs Wisconsin (Pinstripe Bowl-New York City) Both of these teams had extremely disappointing seasons (Wisconsin was one of my picks to make the playoff!).  After starting the season 4-1, the Badgers finished their season losing 4 of their final 7, including a loss to Minnesota in the finale.  The Hurricanes had a tale of 3 seasons: 5-1 to start, a 4-game losing streak, then wining 2 to end it, both in convincing fashion.  Again, I'm going with momentum to carry over.  Miami wins.

Baylor vs Vanderbilt (Texas Bowl-Houston) This is a virtual home game for the Bears (Waco is located just north of Houston, before you get to Austin), and they were 5-2 in home or "neutral site" games.  They had a huge turnaround from their 1-11 season in 2017.  The Commodores overcame a mid-season 4-game losing streak to win 3 of their last 4 and qualify for 2nd bowl in the last 3 seasons.  This is the last of what looks to be 3 evenly matched games on this day.  Vandy wins.

Friday, December 28

Purdue vs Auburn (Music City Bowl-Nashville) The Boilermakers are in their 2nd straight bowl after missing a bowl for the previous 3 years.  After losing 3 games to start the season, Purdue won 6 of 9 to finish at 6-6.  The Tigers had a largely disappointing season, finishing at 7-5, which was way below expectations after last season's 10-win campaign.  I think Auburn will be more motivated to win their bowl this year, since they have lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5.  Tigers win.

West Virginia vs Syracuse (Camping World Bowl-Orlando) These teams had similar seasons, each finishing with 3 losses (WVU had 1 less game due to weather).  The Mountaineers lost their last 2 games, and will be without QB Will Grier for this game.  The Orange won 4 of their last 5 (only loss to Notre Dame) and have a dynamic QB of their own in Eric Dungey, who will play.  Syracuse wins.

Iowa State vs Washington State (Alamo Bowl-San Antonio) The Cougars weren't expected to do much, but ended just shy of a PAC 12 CG berth.  With 10 wins, they're one of the best teams in the nation.  The Cyclones followed up their 8-5 campaign in 2017 by finishing 8-4 in 2018.  This is their 2nd straight bowl game after 4 seasons without one. While I've been impressed with ISU all season, I think WSU pulls this one out.

Saturday, December 29

Florida vs Michigan (Peach Bowl-Atlanta) The Gators reversed their dismal 2017 by finishing 9-3 in 2018.  The Wolverines saw a season of promise blown up by Ohio State in the last regular season game.  Even tough Florida has never beaten Michigan, I think UM will be disappointed in not making the Big 10 CG, and will allow OSU to beat them twice.  UF wins.

South Carolina vs Virginia (Belk Bowl-Charlotte) The Cavaliers were not expected to do much in 2018, but went 6-2 before losing 3 of their last 4 and just missing a berth in the ACCCG.  The Gamecocks had a pattern of wins followed by losses all season, with the exception of 1 modest 2-game winning streak in midseason.  This should be a close game, but SC will prevail.

Arkansas State vs Nevada (Arizona Bowl-Tucson) Both of these teams had surprising seasons.  The Wolfpack rebounded from a 3-9 record in 2017 to go 7-5 in 2018.  The Red Wolves were 8-4 this season, but their losses were all to top teams: Alabama, Ga Southern, App St, and Louisiana.  ASU finished the season on a 4-game win streak, while Nevada won 4 straight before ending with a loss to UNLV.  This will be a competitive matchup, but talent wins out.  Nevada wins.

Notre Dame vs Clemson (Cotton Bowl-Dallas) Both of these teams enter this contest undefeated, so it is guaranteed that at least 1 team in the NC game will be undefeated.  The Tigers had 2 close scares early in the season, then won their last 8 games by at least 20 points, with 6 of them by at least 29.  The Fighting Irish won 5 games by 8 points or less, and won another by only 10.  That means that half of their wins were relatively close.  This can be looked at 2 ways.  Either ND is adept at winning close games, and CU may not be ready for the pressure of a close game, or there is a talent disparity between the 2 teams.  If it's close, ND has a good chance to pull the upset.  I don't think it will be close.  Clemson wins.

Oklahoma vs Alabama (Orange Bowl-Miami) If Alabama wins this game, the winner of the NC game will be the 1st team to go 15-0.  The Crimson Tide played 1 close game all year (35-28 over UGA in the SECCG). All of their other wins were by 22 points or more.  The Sooners lost the 6th game of the season to Texas (in Arlington), then avenged that loss (also in Arlington).  They had 4 wins by 7 points or less, including 1 in OT over Army.  They held 4 opponents to 21 points or less, but 5 scored 40 or more.  Alabama held 10 opponents to 21 points or less, and scored 39 or more 10 times.  I think the Tide can stop OU enough, but the Sooners will not stop UA enough.  Alabama rolls.

That's it for now.  On Monday, look for the next installment of my TWIF Notes.  I'll also give my picks for the December 31 and January 1 games.  Don't forget to follow this blog and leave a comment, and please share with your friends.  Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!