TWIF Notes 12/31/18 and Paul's Picks Bowls 4

Welcome Back!

We've had 14 bowls since last Monday, and while there were a few routs, several were competitive, and one or two went down to the wire.

First Responder Bowl

This bowl game was cancelled due to lightning in the area that was expected to go on for several hours.  This had to be very disappointing for both teams and both fan bases, as I'm sure there was a whole lot of money spent on travel, hotels, etc.  Boston College ends a successful, but ultimately disappointing (because of their fast start), season at 7-5.  Boise State ends at 10-3, but did not win the Mountain West Conference Championship, though it did win the Mountain Division.

Quick Lane Bowl

Wisconsin absolutely destroyed Miami 35-3 in this battle of 7-5 teams that started the season with so much promise.  Miami coach Mark Richt has since retired, and the new Temple coach, Manny Diaz, has been lured back to take the Miami job, leaving Temple in the lurch.  

Cheez-It Bowl

TCU scored late to send the game into OT, then won it on a FG, 10-7.  There were 9 (NINE!) interceptions in this game.  Both teams finish their seasons at 7-6, but the Bears are thrilled, while the Horned Frogs are disappointed.

Independence Bowl

Temple raced out to an early lead, but Duke blew them away in the 2nd half to win 56-27.  Both the Blue Devils and the Owls finish their season at 8-5, but now Temple is left searching for a coach again.

Pinstripe Bowl

Baylor outlasted Vandy 45-38 in one of the more competitive bowls of the week.  Both teams came in at 6-6, but the Bears completed their turnaround from 1-11 in 2017.  The Commodores. meanwhile, finished as they usually do, with a losing season.

Music City Bowl

This was perhaps the least competitive of any of the bowl games so far, and that's saying a lot!  Auburn raced out to a 56-7 halftime lead, then coasted to a 63-14 final, ending the game kneeling down inside Purdue's 10.  The Tigers end their season at 8-5, while the Boilermakers drop to 6-7.

Camping World Bowl

Syracuse defeated West Virginia 34-18, coming back from an early deficit.  The Orange finish 10-3, their 1st 10-win season since 2001, and their 6th in history.  The Mountaineers, without star QB Will Grier, struggled mightily, and drops to 8-4.

Alamo Bowl

Washington State and Iowa State played an exciting game, with the Cougars prevailing 28-26 to finish 11-2, the 1st 11-win season in its history!  The Cyclones dropped to 8-5.

Peach Bowl

Florida blew open a close game in the 3rd quarter to beat Michigan for the 1st time in its history, 41-15.  The Gators are 10-3 in coach Dan Mullen's 1st year at the helm.  The Wolverines also finished at 10-3, but many fans are disappointed, since they were so close to making the CFB Playoff.

Belk Bowl
Virginia dominated South Carolina from start to finish to win 28-0.  The Gamecocks could get nothing going offensively, and the Cavaliers did just enough when they had the ball, scoring a TD in each quarter.  UVA finishes at 8-5 while SC drops to 7-6.

Arizona Bowl
Arkansas State and Nevada went into OT, where the Wolfpack won 16-13.  The Red Wolves led 7-3 for much of the game before Nevada scored with a little more than a minute left to go up 10-7.  ASU then drove down the field to kick the tying FG on the last play of regulation.  After starting OT with an ASU FG, Nevada drove for the winning TD.

Cotton Bowl
This game was close... for the 1st quarter.  Clemson exploded in the 2nd quarter to take a 23-3 lead into halftime, then coasted to complete the blowout at 30-3.  The Fighting Irish suffered their only loss of 2018, finishing at 12-1, and have now lost 6 straight major bowls, dating to 2000, by an average margin of defeat of 24 points.  The Tigers, at 14-0, move on to the National Championship Game for the 3rd time in the last 4 years.

Orange Bowl
Alabama flew out to a 28-0 lead, which was just too much for Oklahoma to overcome, though they did outscore the Crimson Tide 34-17 the rest of the way.  The Sooners struggled mightily on offense early, and was mostly ineffective on defense (surprise, surprise...) all game.  The final score of 45-34 was not truly indicative of the dominance Alabama displayed, despite the announcers trying to say Oklahoma was still in it.  Oklahoma finishes at 12-2.  Alabama moves on to the National Championship game for the 4th year in a row.  With both the Tide and Clemson at 14-0, this will be the first national champion in the playoff era to finish undefeated.

So far, I am 20-7 in the bowl games, which I think is not too shabby!  Generally, if anyone is above 50% in predicting the bowl games, that's pretty good.  Or pretty lucky.  Because predicting bowls is fraught with difficulty.  There are coaching changes, academic suspensions, behavior suspensions, players not playing to prepare for the NFL Draft, injuries, and a host of other issues, not the least of which are the location of the game and the focus level of the players.  Which team will be more motivated?  Take the Quick Lane Bowl, for example.  The game is in Detroit, which is closer to Minnesota, but the Gophers just suspended 6 players.  Will that galvanize the team?  Or will it weaken it?  Then again, Georgia Tech is playing their last game under Paul Johnson.  Will that motivate them?  Or will they be distracted?  (We know the result of this one!)  And how will the new redshirt rule affect the bowls?  I expect to see a lot of freshmen who played in 3 or less games get playing time.

Here are the conference standings for bowl games thus far.  .

ACC 5-2

CUSA 4-2

Sun Belt 3-2

MWC 3-2

SEC 3-2

Independents 2-1

Big 10 2-2

Big 12 2-3

Pac 12 1-2

AAC 1-4

MAC 1-5

Anyway, let's get started.

Monday, December 31

Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech (Military Bowl-Annapolis) The Bearcats have had a breakthrough season at 10-2, losing only at Temple and at UCF.  The Hokies started strong, went on a 4-game losing streak, then won their last 2, 1 a rescheduled game, to reach bowl eligibility.  I think Cincinnati will be prepared and anxious to show they are for real.  UC wins.

Stanford vs Pittsburgh (Sun Bowl-El Paso) The Panthers surprisingly won the ACC Coastal division, but that was mainly due to the deficiencies of the other teams, as they got blown out in their last 2 games.  The Cardinal lost 4 of 5 in midseason, but ended it by winning 3 straight.  I believe Stanford has better coaches and better players.  Stanford wins.

Michigan State vs Oregon (Redbox Bowl-Santa Clara) The Ducks looked like a legitimate threat to win the PAC 12 North, but struggled in midseason.  However, they won 3 of their last 4, losing only to Utah in that stretch.  The Spartans struggled all year long, and lost 2 of their last 3. and their lone win was by 14-10 over Rutgers.  I can't believe I'm predicting the PAC 12 to win yet another bowl game (since they did so poorly last year), but Oregon wins.  I can't believe I'm saying this again, but I'm going with the PAC 12 team.  Utah wins.

NC State vs Texas A&M (Gator Bowl-Jacksonville) The Wolfpack weren't expected to do much, but went 9-3, including winning 4 of their last 5.  The Aggies won their last 3 to finish 8-4, but their losses were to Clemson by 2, @Alabama by 22 (the closest anyone played Bama until the SECCG and the Orange Bowl), @Miss St by 15, and @Auburn by 4.  Their last win was the 7OT affair against LSU.  TAMU wins.

Tuesday, January 1

Mississippi State vs Iowa (Outback Bowl-Tampa) Both teams come in at 8-4, but the Bulldogs won 4 of their last 5 (only loss to Alabama), all by 15 points or more.  The Hawkeyes won their last 2 over Illinois and Nebraska, but lost their previous 4.  I just think MSU is the better team and wins easily.

LSU vs UCF (Fiesta Bowl-Glendale) The Tigers were a pleasant surprise at 9-3, with their only losses @Florida, to Alabama, and @Texas A&M (7 OTs).  The Knights are on a 25-game winning streak looking for number 26 in a row.  While they are a quality team, I think LSU learns from Auburn's experience last year and comes prepared to play.  LSU wins.

Kentucky vs Penn State (Citrus Bowl-Orlando) Both teams come in at 9-3, but it's a vastly different feel for each team.  The Wildcats are thrilled to be here, while the Nittany Lions expected more, especially since this is star QB Trace McSorley's last year.  I'm not overly confident in this pick, but  think Kentucky wants to prove it belongs and wins a close one.

Washington vs Ohio State (Rose Bowl-Pasadena) In a nod to tradition, the Big 10 champions meet the PAC 12 champions in the Grandaddy of Them All.  The Buckeyes are 12-1 and would have been in the playoff if not for their horrendous loss to Purdue.  The Huskies were expected to reach the playoff, but an early loss to Auburn and losses to Oregon (in OT) and Cal derailed them.  The Buckeyes are the much better team, so I expect a big win for them, especially with it being Urban Meyer's last game as coach.

Texas vs Georgia (Sugar Bowl-New Orleans) The Longhorns had a very good season, but that's all they are: very good.  The Bulldogs are an excellent team, but how motivated will they be after just missing upsetting Alabama in the SECCG, and just missing out on the playoff?  If they come into this game wanting to prove the committee wrong, it will be a long day for Texas.  If they come in with a "woe is me" or "why are we wasting our time here?" attitude, they could lose this game, maybe even in a rout.  I'm guessing they play with something to prove.  Dawgs win!

That's it for now.  On Wednesday, I'll have a special edition of my TWIF Notes, reviewing the final bowl games.  Feel free to leave a comment and let me know what you think.  Just know that I do all my research myself, and don't just parrot what I hear or read on other sites (though sometimes the same things pop up elsewhere).  Until then, may you and your loved ones be blessed!  And I hope you have a very Happy New Year!