Paul's Picks Week 4 9/19/19
Welcome back!
Last week was only okay, as I finished 52-16 for a .765 win percentage. I picked several upsets, and there were several upsets, but the 2 groups were not in common. Overall, I am 192-35, which is 84.6%. Not bad! How long can I stay above 80%? There are a lot of games this week where my gut disagrees with my brain. Mostly I went with my brain, but there are 1 or 2 surprises!
On to the predictions!
Thursday, September 19
Houston @ Tulane- This is the AAC opener for both teams. While the Green Wave has the better record, their victories are over FIU (which seems to have taken a step back this year), and FCS Missouri St (their best game is a relatively close loss to Auburn). The Cougars are only 1-2, but their losses are to Oklahoma and Washington St. My heart says Tulane, but I'm going with UH in a close one.
Friday, September 20
FIU @ Louisiana Tech- The Panthers are only 1-2 , with their only win against FCS New Hampshire, while their losses are to WKU (close) and Tulane (in a rout). The Bulldogs also have an FCS win, but also one against Bowling Green (MAC), with a loss to Texas. This may be a close game, but I think La Tech pulls away in the 2nd half. LT wins.
Utah @ USC- This is a key game in the Pac 12 South, as the winner establishes itself as the team to beat (with apologies to Ariz St). The Trojans stumbled against BYU last week and fell out of the top 25. The Utes have won every game by at least 14 points so far, and that may be the margin here. Utah wins.
Air Force @ Boise State- The Broncos have 2 quality wins, but both were close. The Falcons pulled off the upset last week over Colorado in OT. The winner of this one establishes themselves as the favorite in the MWC Mountain division. Boise St has played for the conference title each of the last 2 years, and aren't ready to give that up. Air Force will keep it close, but the Broncos win on the blue turf.
Utah @ USC- This is a key game in the Pac 12 South, as the winner establishes itself as the team to beat (with apologies to Ariz St). The Trojans stumbled against BYU last week and fell out of the top 25. The Utes have won every game by at least 14 points so far, and that may be the margin here. Utah wins.
Air Force @ Boise State- The Broncos have 2 quality wins, but both were close. The Falcons pulled off the upset last week over Colorado in OT. The winner of this one establishes themselves as the favorite in the MWC Mountain division. Boise St has played for the conference title each of the last 2 years, and aren't ready to give that up. Air Force will keep it close, but the Broncos win on the blue turf.
Saturday, September 21
Southern Miss @Alabama- The Golden Eagles are a solid CUSA team, but they were routed by Miss St 2 weeks ago. Raise your hand if you think they can hang with the Crimson Tide. Anyone? Didn't think so. Tide rolls.
LSU @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores are already 0-1 in the SEC, and are currently winless overall. The Bayou Bengals are the exact opposite, though they have yet to play an SEC game. Vandy is certainly capable of staying in this for a while, but they won't. Tigers win easily.
Tennessee @ Florida- This used to be one of the biggest rivalries of the early years of divisional play in the SEC, as they only played 19 times before 1990. UT dominated the early games, winning the 1st 10, and 13 of the first 15. However, since 1976, Florida holds a 26-7 edge, winning 13 of the last 14 (11 in a row from 2005). The Gators haven't impressed me much this year, but they are leaps and bounds better than the Volunteers. UF wins.
Michigan @ Wisconsin- Both teams were off last week, and this is the Big Ten opener for each. The Badgers have yet to allow a point this year, while the Wolverines have allowed 21 in each of their 1st 2 games. I don't think UW will continue to average 55 points a game, but I haven't been impressed with UM's "new" offense so far. I'm going with the home team: UW wins.
Michigan State @ Northwestern- Neither team has been very impressive in the early going, so they both need this win in the worst way, if only to keep from falling behind in their respective divisions. I have slightly more confidence in the Spartans to fix their offensive shortcomings than I do in the Wildcats fixing theirs. MSU wins.
Boston College @ Rutgers- The ACC has been terrible against P5 conferences, but this is Rutgers. But then again, last week was Kansas, so... I'm going with the Eagles to redeem themselves against Scarlet Knights. BC wins.
ULM @ Iowa State- The Cyclones will bounce back with an easy win over the Warhawks.
UConn @ Indiana- The Hoosiers haven't impressed me much in years, but they shouldn't have any problems with the Huskies. IU wins.
California @ Ole Miss- The Golden Bears have led a charmed life so far, winning 2 very close games the last 2 weeks. The Rebels lost this game 2 years ago, and I don't think they have improved much since then, while Cal certainly has. It's a long road trip, but Cal wins.
Western Michigan @ Syracuse- This is a game between 2 teams from conferences that have been disappointments so far. The Broncos have 2 big wins, but they were against an FCS team and an SBC team. The Orange have been blown out twice, and their only win was @Liberty. The tipping point for me is SU being at home. Syracuse wins a close one.
Morgan State @ Army- The Black Knights will rout the winless Bears. Army wins.
Elon @ Wake Forest- The Demon Deacons will stay undefeated, routing the Phoenix.
Coastal Carolina @ UMass- The Chanticleers were close to bowl eligibility last year, falling just short. If they want to make it this year, they must beat the Minutemen. CCU gets the win.
Louisiana @ Ohio- The Ragin' Cajuns have played pretty well, and will give the Bobcats a tough, hard fought game, but OU wins at home.
Troy @ Akron- The Zips haven't been close in 3 games so far, and the Trojans have a win and a close loss. Troy wins on the road.
Central Connecticut @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles have been solid this year, winning 2 close games, including a win over a Big Ten team for the 3rd consecutive year. As long as they don't have a letdown, they should handle the Blue Devils easily. However CC is undefeated at the FCS level, so this won't be a walk in the park. This is the kind of game EMU needs to win, and they will.
Miami, OH @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes have scored at least 42 points in all 3 games in 2019, and they'll reach that mark easily against the RedHawks. OSU wins.
Auburn @ Texas A&M- I haven't bought in to the Aggies as much as everyone else seems to have, but I'm not overly impressed with the Tigers, either. This is a tough one to pick, but I'm going with the team that always seems to have the luck. AU wins.
UCF @ Pittsburgh- Lose this one, and the Knights will fall out of the national consciousness. Win this, and their profile is raised even further, even though the Panthers haven't looked very good so far. The ACC is 9-3 against G5 teams, but only 2-1 against the AAC. UCF wins, and it won't even be close!
Washington @ BYU- Are the Cougars for real? The Huskies bounced back from their disappointing loss to Cal by routing Hawai'i, but BYU has won 2 P5 games the last 2 weeks, both in OT. If this goes into OT again, I would pick BYU, but I don't think it gets that far. UW wins.
Wyoming @ Tulsa- These are 2 evenly matched teams (I think...), but the Cowboys have played close games against mostly lesser competition (Missouri being the exception). The Golden Hurricane have lost to 2 P5 teams, and have already beaten 1 MWC team. Wyoming wins on the road.
Louisville @ FSU- The Cardinals can exceed their 2019 win total with a win over the Seminoles, but I don't think they get it done on the road. FSU wins at home.
Temple @ Buffalo- The Bulls have been a disappointment so far, but the Owls are fresh off an upset of Maryland. The AAC should almost always win against a MAC team, even on the road, but especially this year. Temple wins.
Bowling Green @ Kent State- The problem with the early season MAC schedule is that no one really knows how the teams compare, as they are mostly getting pummeled by P5 or upper level G5 teams. That's the case with both of these teams. I have no idea which is better (my Power Rankings have them just 3 spots apart), so I'm going with the home team. KS wins.
Appalachian State @ North Carolina- While I'm tempted to go with the Mountaineers here, I think they'll take a step back from last year, though they'll still be good. The Tar Heels have won 2 close games, and lost one, and I think they're just good enough to win this. UNC wins.
South Alabama @ UAB- The Jaguars are a decent Sun Belt team, but they're not on the same level as the Blazers, who are coming out of an off week. UAB wins.
SMU @ TCU- One of these teams will still be undefeated after this one (thank you, Obvious Man). The Mustangs have been impressive in their 3 wins, but the Horned Frogs are a step above. These are old Southwest Conference rivals, and except for 2006, have played every year since 1989. TCU leads the overall series 51-40-7, and have won the last 7, 11 of the last 12, and 19 of the last 21. TCU makes it 8 in a row, especially with this being at home. TCU wins.
Kentucky @ Mississippi State- The Wildcats must be one of the unluckiest teams in all of football. I still think they are one of the better teams in the SEC East, which, admittedly, isn't saying much, but I think the Bulldogs get revenge from last year and win at home.
South Carolina @ Missouri- The Gamecocks have been a mess this year, while the Tigers seem to have righted the ship since their opening loss @Wyoming. With this being in Columbia (Missouri, that is), UM wins.
Central Michigan @ Miami, FL- The Hurricanes have a chance to even their record, and they'll get that done as they rout the Chippewas.
West Virginia @ Kansas- The Jayhawks have a chance to follow up their win last week and have a 2-game winning streak against P5 teams for the 1st time in ages. However, they're facing a team that just came off a rout of NC State. While I think KU is improved, the Mountaineers win at home.
New Mexico State @ New Mexico- The Rio Grande Rivalry will be played for the 110th time on Saturday, and the lobos lead 71-33-5, though the Aggies have won 2 of the last 3. Neither team is very good, but NMSU's closest loss has been by 21 points, though their competition has been stiff- Wash St, Alabama, and San Diego St. I'm going with the home team. NM wins.
Hampton @ Liberty- The Flames got a surprise (to me!) win last week, but their win this week over the Pirates won't be a surprise. LU wins.
William & Mary @ East Carolina- The Pirates may have a losing record, but they should beat the Tribe easily. ECU wins.
Wagner @ FAU- The Owls have been blown out by Ohio st and UCF, but were able to defeat Ball St. They'll even their record with a victory over the Seahawks. FAU wins.
Oregon @ Stanford- The Ducks have rebounded after their opening loss to Auburn, but the Cardinal have gone the other way, their defense giving up 45 pts each to USC and UCF. I guess the good news is that Oregon doesn't start with U. Oregon wins on the road.
ODU @ Virginia- The Monarchs look to be much improved from a year ago, but the Cavaliers are a step above. UVA wins.
Ball State @ NC State- Though the Wolfpack got blown out by WVU last week, they should be able to beat a team that lost to FAU. NC State wins at home over the Cardinals.
Baylor @ Rice- This is another old Southwest Conference rivalry, but they've only played 5 times since 1995. The Bears lead the overall series 49-30-2 over the Owls, and they'll get their 50th win. BU wins.
Georgia State @ Texas State- The Panthers came crashing back down to Earth, and learned they can't afford to be overconfident. The Bobcats are winless, but playing at home. GS rebounds and wins a close one.
Charlotte @ Clemson- I'm not real sure why a team from North Carolina is known as the 49ers, but they'll get demolished by the Tigers. Clemson wins.
Oklahoma State @ Texas- This is a key Big 12 game, with the winner establishing themselves as the chief obstacle to Oklahoma. Both offenses have looked good (it's the Big 12...duh...), but the Longhorns seem to have a legitimate defense. The jury is still out on the Cowboys' defense. I may be crazy, but this is my UPSET SPECIAL #1! OSU wins!
San Jose State @ Arkansas- The Razorbacks may be bad, but they're not bad enough to lose to the Spartans at home. UA wins.
UTSA @ North Texas- Each team comes in with an identical 1-2 record, with both wins against FCS teams. The Mean Green, however, have played Cal close, while the Roadrunners have been blown out by Baylor and Army. NT wins at home.
Notre Dame @ Georgia- This is the top matchup of the weekend, with the Fighting Irish making their first visit to Athens. This game will go a long way in deciding the fortunes of these 2 teams. The Dawgs could absorb a loss here better than the Irish, but their margin for error following that loss would be miniscule; one more loss probably eliminates them. The Irish have a tough enough schedule remaining that they could run the table and still (possibly) make the playoff at 11-1, but obviously 12-0 would cement their place. Many are predicting the Bulldogs in a rout, but I think UGA wins a close one.
Nebraska @ Illinois- The Cornhuskers won easily last week while the Illini lost to E Mich. I still don't believe in UN, and Illinois may be fighting for HC Lovie Smith's job. UPSET SPECIAL #2- Illinois wins!
Nevada @ UTEP- The Wolfpack have sandwiched 2 good wins around a blowout loss to Oregon, but the Miners were off last week to prepare, and are at home. It won't matter. UN wins.
Colorado @ Arizona State- This is a key matchup in the Pac 12 South, with the Buffaloes needing to bounce back after their loss to Air Force. The Sun Devils are 3-0, but haven't looked especially impressive in any of their wins. This is a tough one, but ASU wins at home.
Sacramento State @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs get their 1st win of 2019 by handling the Hornets easily.
Toledo @ Colorado State- The Rams desperately need to win this game, but the Rockets are perhaps the best team in the MAC. This game could go either way, but CSU wins a close one.
UCLA @ Washington State- The Bruins are a hot mess, scoring exactly 14 points in all 3 losses. the Cougars have scored at least 31 pts in each of their 3 wins. As long as WSU can score 15, they should win. Wazzou wins big.
Utah State @ San Diego State- These are 2 of the top teams in the MWC, but the Aggies have had an off week to prepare. I don't think that will be enough as the Aztecs win at home.
Central Arkansas @ Hawai'i- It's a long drive from the middle of Arkansas to Hawai'i, and the Rainbow Warriors rarely lose on the Island. The Bears are undefeated in FCS, but won't be able to hang with UH. Hawai'i wins big.
LSU @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores are already 0-1 in the SEC, and are currently winless overall. The Bayou Bengals are the exact opposite, though they have yet to play an SEC game. Vandy is certainly capable of staying in this for a while, but they won't. Tigers win easily.
Tennessee @ Florida- This used to be one of the biggest rivalries of the early years of divisional play in the SEC, as they only played 19 times before 1990. UT dominated the early games, winning the 1st 10, and 13 of the first 15. However, since 1976, Florida holds a 26-7 edge, winning 13 of the last 14 (11 in a row from 2005). The Gators haven't impressed me much this year, but they are leaps and bounds better than the Volunteers. UF wins.
Michigan @ Wisconsin- Both teams were off last week, and this is the Big Ten opener for each. The Badgers have yet to allow a point this year, while the Wolverines have allowed 21 in each of their 1st 2 games. I don't think UW will continue to average 55 points a game, but I haven't been impressed with UM's "new" offense so far. I'm going with the home team: UW wins.
Michigan State @ Northwestern- Neither team has been very impressive in the early going, so they both need this win in the worst way, if only to keep from falling behind in their respective divisions. I have slightly more confidence in the Spartans to fix their offensive shortcomings than I do in the Wildcats fixing theirs. MSU wins.
Boston College @ Rutgers- The ACC has been terrible against P5 conferences, but this is Rutgers. But then again, last week was Kansas, so... I'm going with the Eagles to redeem themselves against Scarlet Knights. BC wins.
ULM @ Iowa State- The Cyclones will bounce back with an easy win over the Warhawks.
UConn @ Indiana- The Hoosiers haven't impressed me much in years, but they shouldn't have any problems with the Huskies. IU wins.
California @ Ole Miss- The Golden Bears have led a charmed life so far, winning 2 very close games the last 2 weeks. The Rebels lost this game 2 years ago, and I don't think they have improved much since then, while Cal certainly has. It's a long road trip, but Cal wins.
Western Michigan @ Syracuse- This is a game between 2 teams from conferences that have been disappointments so far. The Broncos have 2 big wins, but they were against an FCS team and an SBC team. The Orange have been blown out twice, and their only win was @Liberty. The tipping point for me is SU being at home. Syracuse wins a close one.
Morgan State @ Army- The Black Knights will rout the winless Bears. Army wins.
Elon @ Wake Forest- The Demon Deacons will stay undefeated, routing the Phoenix.
Coastal Carolina @ UMass- The Chanticleers were close to bowl eligibility last year, falling just short. If they want to make it this year, they must beat the Minutemen. CCU gets the win.
Louisiana @ Ohio- The Ragin' Cajuns have played pretty well, and will give the Bobcats a tough, hard fought game, but OU wins at home.
Troy @ Akron- The Zips haven't been close in 3 games so far, and the Trojans have a win and a close loss. Troy wins on the road.
Central Connecticut @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles have been solid this year, winning 2 close games, including a win over a Big Ten team for the 3rd consecutive year. As long as they don't have a letdown, they should handle the Blue Devils easily. However CC is undefeated at the FCS level, so this won't be a walk in the park. This is the kind of game EMU needs to win, and they will.
Miami, OH @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes have scored at least 42 points in all 3 games in 2019, and they'll reach that mark easily against the RedHawks. OSU wins.
Auburn @ Texas A&M- I haven't bought in to the Aggies as much as everyone else seems to have, but I'm not overly impressed with the Tigers, either. This is a tough one to pick, but I'm going with the team that always seems to have the luck. AU wins.
UCF @ Pittsburgh- Lose this one, and the Knights will fall out of the national consciousness. Win this, and their profile is raised even further, even though the Panthers haven't looked very good so far. The ACC is 9-3 against G5 teams, but only 2-1 against the AAC. UCF wins, and it won't even be close!
Washington @ BYU- Are the Cougars for real? The Huskies bounced back from their disappointing loss to Cal by routing Hawai'i, but BYU has won 2 P5 games the last 2 weeks, both in OT. If this goes into OT again, I would pick BYU, but I don't think it gets that far. UW wins.
Wyoming @ Tulsa- These are 2 evenly matched teams (I think...), but the Cowboys have played close games against mostly lesser competition (Missouri being the exception). The Golden Hurricane have lost to 2 P5 teams, and have already beaten 1 MWC team. Wyoming wins on the road.
Louisville @ FSU- The Cardinals can exceed their 2019 win total with a win over the Seminoles, but I don't think they get it done on the road. FSU wins at home.
Temple @ Buffalo- The Bulls have been a disappointment so far, but the Owls are fresh off an upset of Maryland. The AAC should almost always win against a MAC team, even on the road, but especially this year. Temple wins.
Bowling Green @ Kent State- The problem with the early season MAC schedule is that no one really knows how the teams compare, as they are mostly getting pummeled by P5 or upper level G5 teams. That's the case with both of these teams. I have no idea which is better (my Power Rankings have them just 3 spots apart), so I'm going with the home team. KS wins.
Appalachian State @ North Carolina- While I'm tempted to go with the Mountaineers here, I think they'll take a step back from last year, though they'll still be good. The Tar Heels have won 2 close games, and lost one, and I think they're just good enough to win this. UNC wins.
South Alabama @ UAB- The Jaguars are a decent Sun Belt team, but they're not on the same level as the Blazers, who are coming out of an off week. UAB wins.
SMU @ TCU- One of these teams will still be undefeated after this one (thank you, Obvious Man). The Mustangs have been impressive in their 3 wins, but the Horned Frogs are a step above. These are old Southwest Conference rivals, and except for 2006, have played every year since 1989. TCU leads the overall series 51-40-7, and have won the last 7, 11 of the last 12, and 19 of the last 21. TCU makes it 8 in a row, especially with this being at home. TCU wins.
Kentucky @ Mississippi State- The Wildcats must be one of the unluckiest teams in all of football. I still think they are one of the better teams in the SEC East, which, admittedly, isn't saying much, but I think the Bulldogs get revenge from last year and win at home.
South Carolina @ Missouri- The Gamecocks have been a mess this year, while the Tigers seem to have righted the ship since their opening loss @Wyoming. With this being in Columbia (Missouri, that is), UM wins.
Central Michigan @ Miami, FL- The Hurricanes have a chance to even their record, and they'll get that done as they rout the Chippewas.
West Virginia @ Kansas- The Jayhawks have a chance to follow up their win last week and have a 2-game winning streak against P5 teams for the 1st time in ages. However, they're facing a team that just came off a rout of NC State. While I think KU is improved, the Mountaineers win at home.
New Mexico State @ New Mexico- The Rio Grande Rivalry will be played for the 110th time on Saturday, and the lobos lead 71-33-5, though the Aggies have won 2 of the last 3. Neither team is very good, but NMSU's closest loss has been by 21 points, though their competition has been stiff- Wash St, Alabama, and San Diego St. I'm going with the home team. NM wins.
Hampton @ Liberty- The Flames got a surprise (to me!) win last week, but their win this week over the Pirates won't be a surprise. LU wins.
William & Mary @ East Carolina- The Pirates may have a losing record, but they should beat the Tribe easily. ECU wins.
Wagner @ FAU- The Owls have been blown out by Ohio st and UCF, but were able to defeat Ball St. They'll even their record with a victory over the Seahawks. FAU wins.
Oregon @ Stanford- The Ducks have rebounded after their opening loss to Auburn, but the Cardinal have gone the other way, their defense giving up 45 pts each to USC and UCF. I guess the good news is that Oregon doesn't start with U. Oregon wins on the road.
ODU @ Virginia- The Monarchs look to be much improved from a year ago, but the Cavaliers are a step above. UVA wins.
Ball State @ NC State- Though the Wolfpack got blown out by WVU last week, they should be able to beat a team that lost to FAU. NC State wins at home over the Cardinals.
Baylor @ Rice- This is another old Southwest Conference rivalry, but they've only played 5 times since 1995. The Bears lead the overall series 49-30-2 over the Owls, and they'll get their 50th win. BU wins.
Georgia State @ Texas State- The Panthers came crashing back down to Earth, and learned they can't afford to be overconfident. The Bobcats are winless, but playing at home. GS rebounds and wins a close one.
Charlotte @ Clemson- I'm not real sure why a team from North Carolina is known as the 49ers, but they'll get demolished by the Tigers. Clemson wins.
Oklahoma State @ Texas- This is a key Big 12 game, with the winner establishing themselves as the chief obstacle to Oklahoma. Both offenses have looked good (it's the Big 12...duh...), but the Longhorns seem to have a legitimate defense. The jury is still out on the Cowboys' defense. I may be crazy, but this is my UPSET SPECIAL #1! OSU wins!
San Jose State @ Arkansas- The Razorbacks may be bad, but they're not bad enough to lose to the Spartans at home. UA wins.
UTSA @ North Texas- Each team comes in with an identical 1-2 record, with both wins against FCS teams. The Mean Green, however, have played Cal close, while the Roadrunners have been blown out by Baylor and Army. NT wins at home.
Notre Dame @ Georgia- This is the top matchup of the weekend, with the Fighting Irish making their first visit to Athens. This game will go a long way in deciding the fortunes of these 2 teams. The Dawgs could absorb a loss here better than the Irish, but their margin for error following that loss would be miniscule; one more loss probably eliminates them. The Irish have a tough enough schedule remaining that they could run the table and still (possibly) make the playoff at 11-1, but obviously 12-0 would cement their place. Many are predicting the Bulldogs in a rout, but I think UGA wins a close one.
Nebraska @ Illinois- The Cornhuskers won easily last week while the Illini lost to E Mich. I still don't believe in UN, and Illinois may be fighting for HC Lovie Smith's job. UPSET SPECIAL #2- Illinois wins!
Nevada @ UTEP- The Wolfpack have sandwiched 2 good wins around a blowout loss to Oregon, but the Miners were off last week to prepare, and are at home. It won't matter. UN wins.
Colorado @ Arizona State- This is a key matchup in the Pac 12 South, with the Buffaloes needing to bounce back after their loss to Air Force. The Sun Devils are 3-0, but haven't looked especially impressive in any of their wins. This is a tough one, but ASU wins at home.
Sacramento State @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs get their 1st win of 2019 by handling the Hornets easily.
Toledo @ Colorado State- The Rams desperately need to win this game, but the Rockets are perhaps the best team in the MAC. This game could go either way, but CSU wins a close one.
UCLA @ Washington State- The Bruins are a hot mess, scoring exactly 14 points in all 3 losses. the Cougars have scored at least 31 pts in each of their 3 wins. As long as WSU can score 15, they should win. Wazzou wins big.
Utah State @ San Diego State- These are 2 of the top teams in the MWC, but the Aggies have had an off week to prepare. I don't think that will be enough as the Aztecs win at home.
Central Arkansas @ Hawai'i- It's a long drive from the middle of Arkansas to Hawai'i, and the Rainbow Warriors rarely lose on the Island. The Bears are undefeated in FCS, but won't be able to hang with UH. Hawai'i wins big.
That's all for now! Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes, where I'll review all the results and their implications. Also, feel free to follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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