Odds and Ends 11/27/19
Welcome Back!
Here at Odds and Ends, I plan to look at some stats, trends, storylines, etc. as they play out. I will also give my opinion on some issues, but you can take that for what it's worth.
Anyway, let's get into this week's statistics!
Conference Standings
Here is how each conference is doing in overall win percentage:
4) AAC 75-56 .573
5) ACC 86-68 .558
6) Pac 12 73-60 .549
7) MWC 72-61 .541
8) SBC 57-53 .518
9) CUSA 73-81 .474
10) MAC 60-72 .455
11) Independents 30-37 .448
I have abandoned my non-conference records since most non-conference games are completed, though there is still a few each week. I will revisit this at the end of the season.
Another way of comparing conferences is by average rank. Using my Power Rankings (see yesterday's blog), here is how the conferences compare:
Conference Average rank
1. Big 12 53.7
2. SEC 55.4
7. MWC 70.3
10. Ind 78
11. MAC 84.3
T1) Big Ten 90-64.584
T1) SEC 90-64 .584
3) Big 12 64-46 .5824) AAC 75-56 .573
5) ACC 86-68 .558
6) Pac 12 73-60 .549
7) MWC 72-61 .541
8) SBC 57-53 .518
9) CUSA 73-81 .474
10) MAC 60-72 .455
11) Independents 30-37 .448
I have abandoned my non-conference records since most non-conference games are completed, though there is still a few each week. I will revisit this at the end of the season.
Another way of comparing conferences is by average rank. Using my Power Rankings (see yesterday's blog), here is how the conferences compare:
Conference Average rank
1. Big 12 53.7
2. SEC 55.4
3. Big Ten 55.9
4. Pac 12 57.8
5. AAC 60.4
6. ACC 62.4
8. SBC 72.3
9. CUSA 7710. Ind 78
11. MAC 84.3
Which Division is Best?
Here is how each division is doing in overall records:
1) AAC West 40-25 .615
2) SEC West 47-30 .610
4) ACC Atlantic 45-32 .584
T5) Big 12 64-46 .582
7) MWC Mountain 38-28 .576
9) SEC East 43-34 .558
10) Pac 12 South 37-30 .552
11) Pac 12 North 36-30 .545
12) ACC Coastal 41-36 .532
13) AAC East 35-31 .530
13) AAC East 35-31 .530
14) MAC West 34-32 .515
16) CUSA East 39-38 .506
17) Sun Belt West 25-30 .454
18) Independents 30-37 .448
19) CUSA West 324-43 .442
The AAC West stays on top! The worst P5 division, at least in terms of overall win percentage, is still the ACC Coastal.
As far as intra-conference play, here is how each division is doing against the other:
SEC West leads the SEC East 7-6
Big 10 East is tied with the Big Ten West 10-10
ACC Atlantic leads the Coastal 7-6
Pac 12 South leads the North 13-10
AAC West leads the East 9-6
MWC Mountain leads the West 13-5
CUSA East leads the West 8-7
MWC Mountain leads the West 13-5
CUSA East leads the West 8-7
MAC West leads the East 9-57
SBC East leads the West 10-9
Undefeated Vs. Winless
After 13 weeks, there are now only 3 (out of 130) teams that are still undefeated, with none dropping from the ranks of the unbeaten. Here are the remaining 3:
Clemson
LSU
Ohio State
There is only 1 winless team, proving that it's much harder to go winless than it is to go undefeated:
Akron
Let's examine these by conference. This is another way to compare conferences.
The SEC has 1 of 14 undefeated, and 0 winless.
The Big Ten has 1 of 14 undefeated, and no winless teams.
The ACC has 1 of 14 undefeated teams, and no winless teams.
The Big 12 has 0 of 10 teams undefeated, and no winless teams.
The Pac 12 has 0 of 12 teams undefeated, and no winless teams.
Independents have 0 of 6 undefeated, and no winless teams.
The AAC has 0 of 12 undefeated, and 0 winless.
The MWC has 0 of 12 undefeated, and 0 winless.
CUSA has 0 undefeated team, and 0 winless.
The MAC has 0 undefeated teams, and 1 winless.
The SBC has 0 undefeated team and 0 winless.
There are 3 teams that have a win, but none against FBS competition:
ODU
South Alabama
UTEP
Bowl Eligibility
The following teams are already bowl eligible, with at least 6 wins. We added 9 more teams to the list, making the total 72. This year, there are 39 bowl games, which means there are slots for 78 teams, so 6 slots still available.
Air Force
Alabama
Appalachian State
Arizona State
Arkansas State
Auburn
Baylor
Boise State
Buffalo
BYU
California
Central Michigan
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Clemson
Eastern Michigan
FAU
FIU
Florida
FSU
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Hawai'i
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas State
Kentucky
La Tech
*Liberty- needs 1 more win as 2 wins are against FCS teams
Louisiana
Louisville
LSU
Marshall
Memphis
Miami, Fl
Miami, Oh
Michigan
Minnesota
Navy
Nevada
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Penn State
Pittsburgh
San Diego State
SMU
Southern Miss
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Toledo
Tulane
UAB
UCF
USC
Utah
Utah State
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Western Michigan
Wisconsin
WKU
Wyoming
Here is every team's chances at bowl eligibility. There are 14 teams vying for the last 6 spots.
Projected Record: 6-6
Team: ULM
After 13 weeks, there are now only 3 (out of 130) teams that are still undefeated, with none dropping from the ranks of the unbeaten. Here are the remaining 3:
Clemson
LSU
Ohio State
There is only 1 winless team, proving that it's much harder to go winless than it is to go undefeated:
Akron
Let's examine these by conference. This is another way to compare conferences.
The SEC has 1 of 14 undefeated, and 0 winless.
The Big Ten has 1 of 14 undefeated, and no winless teams.
The ACC has 1 of 14 undefeated teams, and no winless teams.
The Big 12 has 0 of 10 teams undefeated, and no winless teams.
The Pac 12 has 0 of 12 teams undefeated, and no winless teams.
Independents have 0 of 6 undefeated, and no winless teams.
The AAC has 0 of 12 undefeated, and 0 winless.
The MWC has 0 of 12 undefeated, and 0 winless.
CUSA has 0 undefeated team, and 0 winless.
The MAC has 0 undefeated teams, and 1 winless.
The SBC has 0 undefeated team and 0 winless.
There are 3 teams that have a win, but none against FBS competition:
ODU
South Alabama
UTEP
Bowl Eligibility
The following teams are already bowl eligible, with at least 6 wins. We added 9 more teams to the list, making the total 72. This year, there are 39 bowl games, which means there are slots for 78 teams, so 6 slots still available.
Air Force
Alabama
Appalachian State
Arizona State
Arkansas State
Auburn
Baylor
Boise State
Buffalo
BYU
California
Central Michigan
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Clemson
Eastern Michigan
FAU
FIU
Florida
FSU
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Hawai'i
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas State
Kentucky
La Tech
*Liberty- needs 1 more win as 2 wins are against FCS teams
Louisiana
Louisville
LSU
Marshall
Memphis
Miami, Fl
Miami, Oh
Michigan
Minnesota
Navy
Nevada
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Penn State
Pittsburgh
San Diego State
SMU
Southern Miss
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Toledo
Tulane
UAB
UCF
USC
Utah
Utah State
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Western Michigan
Wisconsin
WKU
Wyoming
Here is every team's chances at bowl eligibility. There are 14 teams vying for the last 6 spots.
Team: Boston College
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: @Pitt
Bowl Chance: Poor
Projected Record: 5-7
Team: TCU
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: WV
Bowl Chance: Good
Projected Record: 6-6
Bowl Chance: Good
Projected Record: 6-6
Team: Oregon State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: @Ore
Bowl Chance: Very Poor
Projected Record: 5-7
Team: Army
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: @Hawai'i, Navy
Bowl Chance: Very Poor- Army needs 7 wins to qualify as they have 2 wins against FCS teams.
Projected Record: 5-8/6-7
Team: Troy
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: App St
Bowl Chance: Poor
Projected Record: 5-7
Team: Mississippi State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Ole Miss
Bowl Chance: Good
Projected Record: 6-6
Team: Michigan State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Maryland
Bowl Chance: Good
Projected Record: 6-6
Team: Nebraska
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Iowa
Bowl Chance: Poor
Projected Record: 5-7
Team: North Carolina
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: @NC St
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: @NC St
Bowl Chance: Good
Projected Record: 6-6
Team: Ohio
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: @Akron
Bowl Chance: Very Good
Team: Kent State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: @EMU
Bowl Chance: Fair
Projected Record: 5-7
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: @Lou
Bowl Chance: Poor
Projected Record: 5-7
Eliminated From A Bowl (7+ losses)
Akron
Arizona
Arkansas
Ball State
Bowling Green
Coastal Carolina
Colorado State
Duke
East Carolina
Fresno State
Georgia Tech
Houston
Kansas
Maryland
Middle Tennessee
Missouri- ineligible
NC State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Arkansas
Ball State
Bowling Green
Coastal Carolina
Colorado State
Duke
East Carolina
Fresno State
Georgia Tech
Houston
Kansas
Maryland
Middle Tennessee
Missouri- ineligible
NC State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Texas
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
ODU
Ole Miss
Purdue
Rice
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
ODU
Ole Miss
Purdue
Rice
Rutgers
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
Stanford
Syracuse
Texas State
Texas Tech
Tulsa
UCLA
UConn
UMass
UNLV
USF
UTEP
UTSA
Vanderbilt
West Virginia
Conference/Division Championship Scenarios
Below, I'm going to go over each division race. I have gone through each of the scenarios, and this is my best guess of how things could play out. I freely admit that this may not be entirely accurate, as I don't have a research department to double check everything, and if I don't know the answer to a tiebreaker scenario, I'll tell you. Here we go!
AAC East- Cincinnati has clinched.
AAC West- Memphis will win if it beats Cincinnati or ifNavy loses to Houston. Navy will win if they beat Houston and Memphis loses.
ACC Atlantic- Clemson has already clinched.
ACC Coastal- The winner of the Virginia-Va Tech will win the division.
Big 12- Oklahoma and Baylor are each in the championship game.
Big Ten East- Ohio State has clinched.
Big Ten West- The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game will clinch the division.
CUSA East- FAU will clinch if it beats Southern Miss, or if Marshall loses. Marshall will win if it beats FIU and FAU loses to USM.
CUSA West- USM, UAB, and La Tech are all tied at the top. If each team wins their last game, it will still remain tied, and each are 1-1 against the others, and each will be 4-1 within the division. If LT loses, USM will win the division (assuming it wins). If UAB loses, LT will win (same assumption). If USM loses, UAB wins (same assumption). If it ends in a 3-way tie, I have no idea how it is decided.
MAC East- Miami, Oh has already clinched.
MAC West- Western Michigan wins if it beats NIU. CMU wins if it beats Toledo and WMU loses to NIU. If they both lose, WMU is in.
MWC Mountain- Boise State has clinched the division.
MWC West- Hawai'i has clinched the division.
Pac 12 North- Oregon has already clinched.
Pac 12 South- Utah will clinch if it beats Colorado. If the Ducks lose, USC wins.
SEC East- Georgia has already clinched.
SEC West- LSU has clinched.
SBC East- Appalachian State has clinched.
SBC West- Louisiana has clinched.
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
Stanford
Syracuse
Texas State
Texas Tech
Tulsa
UCLA
UConn
UMass
UNLV
USF
UTEP
UTSA
Vanderbilt
West Virginia
Conference/Division Championship Scenarios
Below, I'm going to go over each division race. I have gone through each of the scenarios, and this is my best guess of how things could play out. I freely admit that this may not be entirely accurate, as I don't have a research department to double check everything, and if I don't know the answer to a tiebreaker scenario, I'll tell you. Here we go!
AAC East- Cincinnati has clinched.
AAC West- Memphis will win if it beats Cincinnati or ifNavy loses to Houston. Navy will win if they beat Houston and Memphis loses.
ACC Atlantic- Clemson has already clinched.
ACC Coastal- The winner of the Virginia-Va Tech will win the division.
Big 12- Oklahoma and Baylor are each in the championship game.
Big Ten East- Ohio State has clinched.
Big Ten West- The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game will clinch the division.
CUSA East- FAU will clinch if it beats Southern Miss, or if Marshall loses. Marshall will win if it beats FIU and FAU loses to USM.
CUSA West- USM, UAB, and La Tech are all tied at the top. If each team wins their last game, it will still remain tied, and each are 1-1 against the others, and each will be 4-1 within the division. If LT loses, USM will win the division (assuming it wins). If UAB loses, LT will win (same assumption). If USM loses, UAB wins (same assumption). If it ends in a 3-way tie, I have no idea how it is decided.
MAC East- Miami, Oh has already clinched.
MAC West- Western Michigan wins if it beats NIU. CMU wins if it beats Toledo and WMU loses to NIU. If they both lose, WMU is in.
MWC Mountain- Boise State has clinched the division.
MWC West- Hawai'i has clinched the division.
Pac 12 North- Oregon has already clinched.
Pac 12 South- Utah will clinch if it beats Colorado. If the Ducks lose, USC wins.
SEC East- Georgia has already clinched.
SEC West- LSU has clinched.
SBC East- Appalachian State has clinched.
SBC West- Louisiana has clinched.
Update on Paul's Playoff Picks:
Three of my 4 picks now have a loss, but it's only 1 loss- Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Only Clemson is still undefeated. With the season almost over, I'm confident in Clemson making the playoff, but less so in the others.
Games I'm excited about this weekend:
All of the rivalry games!
Ole Miss @ Miss State
Texas Tech @ Texas
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
Cincinnati @ Memphis
Washington State @ Washington
USF @ UCF
Ohio State @ Michigan
Clemson @ South Carolina
Georgia @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Kentucky
Alabama @ Auburn
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
Oregon State @ Oregon
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern
Texas A&M @ LSU
North Carolina @ NC State
FSU @ Florida
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
Arizona @ Arizona State
Ole Miss @ Miss State
Texas Tech @ Texas
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
Cincinnati @ Memphis
Washington State @ Washington
USF @ UCF
Ohio State @ Michigan
Clemson @ South Carolina
Georgia @ Georgia Tech
Louisville @ Kentucky
Alabama @ Auburn
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
Oregon State @ Oregon
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern
Texas A&M @ LSU
North Carolina @ NC State
FSU @ Florida
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
Arizona @ Arizona State
That's all for now. Tomorrow, I will have my picks for Week 14. Feel free to leave a comment and to follow me on Twitter: @pbanderson.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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