Paul's Picks Week 3- 9/17/2020

  Welcome Back!

Last week I was a fantastic 17-3, or 85%!  Overall, I am now 24-5, or 82.8%.  My goal every year is to finish at or above 80%, though I've never actually achieved that, but I almost always finish above 75%.  Last year I finished at 76.5% for the regular season, and 76.2% overall, which isn't too shabby.  

I want to point out that my predictions come simply from 45+ years of watching and following college football.  I do not have the time (or staff!) to do massive research into depth charts, injuries, transfers, etc, and so, if I were you, I certainly wouldn't take my picks to Vegas (or wherever) and bet the mortgage with them!  My brothers and I have been predicting the games among ourselves off and on for many years, and I should point out that I haven't "won" in a while, but I also haven't finished last, either, so there's that.  Anyway... let's get to the picks!

Friday, September 18

Campbell @ Coastal Carolina- Last week, the Fighting Camels gave Georgia Southern all they could handle, losing only when their 2-point conversion try in the last few seconds failed.  However, the Chanticleers looked impressive in rolling over Kansas, but then again, it was Kansas.  This game may be close, especially if CCU overlooks the Camels, but CCU wins in the end.

Saturday, September 19

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State- This is the season opener for both teams.  The Cowboys haven't lost an opener since 2014 against FSU, and this is the 2nd time since 2017 they have opened with Tulsa (they won 59-24).  The Golden Hurricane are coming off of a 4-8 season, but they won 2 of their last 3, and 3 of their losses were to ranked teams, and one of those was in 3 OT.  Last year, OSU won this matchup 40-21 in Tulsa, so I anticipate a similar score with OSU winning at home.

Austin Peay @ Cincinnati- The Governors have already played 2 games, but this is the opener for the Bearcats,  Experience is all AP has going for it.  UC wins in a rout.

Louisiana @ Georgia State-  The Ragin' Cajuns had perhaps their biggest win in history last week, but they better be careful of being overconfident.  The Panthers are capable of playing well on any given day; they just seem unable to do it consistently week in and week out.  UL seems to be the real deal and not a one-year fluke.  Cajuns win their 2nd straight on the road, and their 11th straight against teams not named Appalachian State.

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers looked impressive last week, but that was against Austin Peay.  The Orange looked miserable last week, but that was on the road at North Carolina.  SU will score more than the 6 they got last week, and will hold Pitt to less than the 55 they got, but it still won't be close.  Pitt wins at home.

Liberty @ WKU- The Hilltoppers played pretty well against Louisville last week, and are a quality CUSA team.  I would consider the Flames on par with a quality CUSA team, so this should be a decent game that could go either way.  However, Liberty has yet to play a game, so all things being equal, I think the experience, and being at home, works in WKU's favor.  Hilltoppers win.

Navy @ Tulane- The Midshipmen were absolutely destroyed by BYU on Labor Day night, but they've had 12 days to right the ship (see what I did there?).  The Green Wave struggled with a lower tier Sun Belt Conference team at South Alabama.  I really have no idea, who wins this, or who should be favored, so I'm going with the home team (and the one who didn't lose 55-3...).

Boston College @ Duke- The Eagles have won 3 straight openers, but the Blue Devils have a game under their belts (a tough one at that!) and are playing at home.  Duke has won the last 2 in the series by a combined 3 points, and they'll even the all-time series at 4 a piece with a win here.

Houston @ Baylor- This is the opener for both teams, though it wasn't supposed to be.  The Bears are coming off an 11-3 season, but have a new coach (Dave Aranda); the Cougars had a disappointing 4-8 season in 2019.  Go with the home team that's had more recent success.  Baylor wins.

Appalachian State @ Marshall- The Mountaineers did not look overly impressive in beating Charlotte last week, and Marshall is, ostensibly, better than the 49ers.  The Thundering Herd looked fantastic in their opener, but that was against an FCS team, and their game last week was postponed due to Covid, so they've had an extra week to prepare.  I expect a close game, mainly because I think Marshall is better than many people think, but also, because it may take a little while for the ASU players to adjust to their 3rd new HC in the last 3 years, though Shawn Clark has been on staff since 2016.  ASU wins a close, high scoring game.

USF @ Notre Dame- The Bulls were only 4-8 last year, and were not very dominant in their win over an FCS team last weekend.  The Fighting Irish are one of the best teams currently playing.  If they don't look beyond USF, they should have an easy win.  ND wins in a rout.

Stephen F. Austin @ UTSA- If the Roadrunners play like they did last weekend, they should have no problems beating the Lumberjacks, who lost by 10 to UTEP 2 weeks ago.  UTSA wins.

Charlotte @ North Carolina- The 49ers held their own against Appalachian St last week, but the Tar Heels look to be one of the better teams in the ACC.  As long as UNC isn't overlooking their opponent, they will have this won before halftime.  UNC wins.

UCF @ Georgia Tech- I correctly picked the Yellow Jackets to upset FSU last week, but I think their progress is going to be a whole lot of "2 steps forward, 1 step back".  This is one of those steps back.  Until they learn to handle success, they will have these little stumbles.  The Knights are a fantastic team, and this may be their best chance to grab a spot in the CFB Playoff, if they can go undefeated for the 3rd time in 4 years, and if one of the P5 conferences still playing don't make it through the season without a dominant team.  I don't think they'll let this opportunity pass them by, even if they don't ultimately get chosen.  UCF wins.

FAU @ Georgia Southern- This is a tough game to pick.  On the one hand, FAU was 11-3 last year and is riding a 7-game winning streak, but has a new coach, and has yet to play a game this year.  On the other, GSU was 7-6, but was the only team to beat App St, and has already played a game, though they barely squeaked by an FCS team, Campbell.  Call it a hunch, but I think the Eagles upset the Owls at home.

The Citadel @ Clemson- Seriously?  The Tigers will destroy the Bulldogs.

Troy @ Middle Tennessee- The Sun Belt Conference has looked impressive early this season, but this is Troy's opening game.  The Trojans were a disappointing 5-7 last year under 1st year coach Chip Lindsey, as this followed 3 straight years of double-digit wins.  The Blue Raiders were only 4-8 last year themselves, and opened the season by losing 42-0 to Army.  They've had an extra week to prepare, but I'm going with the hot conference.  Troy gets the mild upset on the road.

SMU @ North Texas- The Mean Green got an easy win 2 weeks ago against an FCS team while the Mustangs eked by a surprisingly hard-luck Texas State, and had their game last week postponed by Covid.  SMU wins on the road.

Central Arkansas @ Arkansas State- The Bears are a quality FCS team, but the Red Wolves played really well last week against Kansas State. As long as ASU doesn't have a let down, they win, but it may be closer than expected.

Miami @ Louisville- I'm not real sure how good either of these teams are, as they both defeated CUSA foes last weekend.  In a toss-up game like this, unless I have a strong feeling one way or the other, I go with the home team.  Cardinals top the Hurricanes in a close one.

La Tech @ Southern Miss- This is the 1st conference game in CUSA! Both teams are coming off of successful campaigns.  The Golden Eagles have won 4 of the last 5 against the Bulldogs, but LT got the win last year, and they'll make it 2 in a row with a win in Hattiesburg this year.

Texas State @ ULM- This is the 1st conference game in the SBC for the 2020 season.  The Bobcats have been the unluckiest CFB team playing in 2020 so far, as they are 0-2 by a combined 10 points, with 1 loss in 2 OT (because of a missed PAT in regulation).  The Warhawks were blown out by Army last week.  TS finally gets their 1st win of 2020!

Wake Forest @ NC State- The Demon Deacons were routed by Clemson last week, but were 8-5 last year.  The Wolfpack will be playing their opener for 2020, but were 4-8 in 2019.  WF has won the last 3 between these 2, but NC State breaks that streak.  NCSU wins.

Abilene Christian @ UTEP- If the Miners were an FCS team, they would be in the playoffs every year.  UTEP defeats the Wildcats.

That's all for today!  Feel free to leave a comment, follow me on Twitter (@pbanderson), or subscribe to this blog.  Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!