Paul's Picks Week 4- 9/24/2020

Welcome Back!

Last week I was only 15-5, or a very pedestrian 75%.  Overall, I am now 39-10, or 79.6%.  My goal every year is to finish at or above 80%, though I've never actually achieved that, but I almost always finish above 75%.  Last year I finished at 76.5% for the regular season, and 76.2% overall, which isn't too shabby.  

I want to point out that my predictions come simply from 45+ years of watching and following college football.  I do not have the time (or staff!) to do massive research into depth charts, injuries, transfers, etc, and so, if I were you, I certainly wouldn't take my picks to Vegas (or wherever) and bet the mortgage with them!  My brothers and I have been predicting the games among ourselves off and on for many years, and I should point out that I haven't "won" in a while, but I also haven't finished last, either, so there's that.  Anyway... let's get to the picks!

Thursday, September 24

UAB @ South Alabama- The Blazers have been a fantastic 28-13 over the last 3 years (after their 2-year hiatus), and last year defeated the Jaguars at home by the score of 35-3.  They struggled a bit with FCS C Ark in their opener, and lost by 17 to what looks to be a good Miami team, so it's hard to get a really good picture on UAB just yet.  The Jaguars have looked very good so far this year, beating Southern Miss on the road and narrowly losing to Tulane at home.  Both of these teams were off last week.  The Sun Belt has looked strong so far this season, but I think UAB wins a close one.

Friday, September 25

Middle Tennessee @ UTSA- The Roadrunners have started 2-0 for the 1st time since 2017, but they have defeated Texas St by 3 in OT and and FCS team by 14 at home.  The Blue Raiders have been outscored 89-14 in their 2 games, but their opposition was quite a bit tougher- Army and Troy.  Call it a hunch, but MTSU pulls off the mild upset.

Saturday, September 26

Kansas State @ Oklahoma- The Wildcats pulled off the upset over the Sooners last year on their way to a surprising 8-5 record, but lost their opener at home to Ark St.  The Sooners are once again the class of the Big 12, and one of my picks to make the CFB Playoff, so of course I expect them to win here.

Florida @ Ole Miss- The SEC Media is expecting the Gators to win the SEC East this year.  I don't see that happening, but I expect them to stomp the Rebels.  This is their 1st meeting since 2015.

Kentucky @ Auburn- The Tigers are always the biggest enigma in the SEC before the season starts.  Will this be the year in 4 or 5 where they put it all together and go 10-2 or better?  Or will this be their normal "mediocre" 7-6 to 9-4 year?  A whole lot will depend on the play of their QB and their defense.  On the other side, the Wildcats have firmly established themselves as a better than average SEC team, at least on par with the Texas A&M's and Auburn's of the conference.  But hardly anyone seems to have noticed, or seems to care, as they are consistently picked to finish 4th or worse every year.  This is my upset special.  Kentucky wins!

UCF @ East Carolina- The Pirates finally get to play a game! But they're still not very good.  The Knights beat Georgia Tech by 28 two weeks ago, and I'll be surprised if the margin here is not at least that big.  UCF wins.

Georgia Southern @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns beat one GSU last week, and now gets to play the other this week.  Traditionally, the Eagles have been the better team (than the Panthers, I mean). UL looks to be both good AND lucky this year, so I'm going with the home team in a close one.

Louisville @ Pittsburgh- The Cardinals are averaging 34.5 ppg, but are giving up 34 ppg.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are only allowing 5 ppg while scoring 33 ppg.  I'll go with the better defense.  Pitt wins.

Georgia Tech @ Syracuse- Neither of these teams are very good, but I feel like the Yellow Jackets have potential.  The Orange offense has been atrocious, scoring 16 points in 2 games, so the GT offense only has to be adequate, which they have been so far.  GT wins.

Georgia State @ Charlotte- This is an interesting matchup, as each of these teams gave better opponents all they could handle in their openers.  The 49ers had an extra week to prepare (due to the cancellation/postponement of their game at UNC last week), but I'm going with the Panthers to build off their performance against Louisiana last week.  Then again, GSU has traditionally been very inconsistent in their play from week to week.  What the heck... GSU wins!

Campbell @ Appalachian State- If the Fighting Camels are hoping to join and win the Sun Belt one year, they need to win one of these games!  In all seriousness, they have played more Sun Belt teams then anyone else, and almost beat Ga Southern.  The Mountaineers are coming off 2 subpar performances, but should win this one easily.  But if they struggle, this could give hope to other teams in their division.

FIU @ Liberty- The Flames looked fantastic in mauling WKU last week, and this week host the Panthers who will be playing their opener.  This is the 1st ever meeting between these 2 teams, and they haven't played a lot of common opponents in the past.  Logic says Liberty, but my gut says FIU, in a close one.

Iowa State @ TCU- It's been 2 weeks since the Cyclones were embarrassed by Louisiana, and I imagine they are eager to prove they are better than what they showed on Sept 12.  The Horned Frogs have had their opening game postponed twice, so they'll be happy just to play.  ISU wins a close one.  And I expect it to be a low-scoring game.  For the Big 12, I mean.

Mississippi State @ LSU- This is the debut for new Bulldogs coach Mike Leach, but what a way to start your tenure!  At least there won't be as many fans there, and it won't be at night.  The Bayou Bengals are coming off perhaps the greatest season in their history, so don't be surprised if they take a step back this season.  But the Tigers are still good enough to beat MSU.  LSU wins.

Texas @ Texas Tech- Yes, I realize this is somewhat of a rivalry game, but the Red Raiders barely beat an FCS team 2 weeks ago.  Longhorns roll.

Army @ Cincinnati- This should be one of the best games of the day! The Black Knights have outscored their 1st 2 opponents 79-7, both of them G5 teams.  The Bearcats beat an FCS team by "only" 55-20.  This is the 1st road game for Army, and except for the other 2 service academies, the toughest game remaining on their schedule (unless BYU is rescheduled).  Go with the home team in a low scoring game.

West Virginia @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys stumbled their way to a victory last week while the Mountaineers had a week off after routing an FCS team 2 weeks ago.  If this were in Morgantown, I would be tempted to pick the upset, but OSU stumbles to another win based on superior talent.

UTEP @ ULM- The Miners are off to their best start since 2014, when they also started 2-1, but both victories have been against FCS teams by a combined 13 points.  The Warhawks are 0-2, but they have lost to Army and to Texas St.  Go with the home team.

Georgia @ Arkansas- The Bulldogs are ready to show off their new offense, but the biggest question is who starts at QB.  Against the Razorbacks, it may not matter, as UA is currently on a 9-game losing streak, and a 19-game conference losing streak.  Dawgs roll.

Duke @ Virginia- The Cavaliers get to open against a Duke team that has been, in a word, awful.  The Blue Devils have lost both of their games by an average score of 26.5-9.5.  All UVA needs is 2 TDs.  I bet they get at least 3.  Wahoos win.

Texas State @ Boston College- BC transfer QB Phil Jurkovic may be the real deal, and just what the Eagles have needed.  He was fantastic in last week's victory over Duke.  Then again, it was against Duke.  The Bobcats finally won after 2 hard-luck losses, but BC may be the toughest team they face all year, and it's on the road, too.  BC wins, but TSU won't go easy.

Alabama @ Missouri- Good luck, Tigers!  Bama rolls!

Houston Baptist @ La Tech- The Bulldogs should have no problems with the Huskies, though they gave Texas Tech all they could handle.

Tulane @ Southern Miss- Both of these teams have played a couple of close games, with the Golden Eagles losing twice at home, and the Green Wave winning on the road and losing in an epic collapse at home, both incidentally by the same score.  USM is bound to win a home game, but this will be their 4th straight home loss, going back into 2019.  By the way, in case you don't remember, these 2 teams faced each other in the Armed Forces Bowl after last season, with Tulane prevailing 30-13.  I expect a similar result.

Stephen F. Austin @ SMU- If UTEP can beat the Lumberjacks, then so can the the Mustangs.  SMU wins easily.

Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M- The Aggies are expected to be one of the better teams in the SEC West.  I'm still not convinced, but they are still better than the Commodores.  TAMU rolls.

FSU @ Miami- One of these teams has started the season 2-0, the other lost the Georgia Tech.  Which do you think is better?  The Hurricanes have won their 2 games with a combined score of 78-48, so scoring points will not be a problem this season.  The Seminoles could only muster 13 against a GT defense that gave up 49 to UCF.  Miami wins, but it will be close.  For a quarter.

Tennessee @ South Carolina- I'm not convinced at all the hype surrounding the "Tennessee is back!" narrative around these parts, and I'm tempted to go with the Gamecocks, especially since they may be playing for Will Muschamp's job, and the fact that they are at home, but I just can't pull the trigger on this one.  UT wins a close one.

Kansas @ Baylor- I thought the Les Miles hire would translate into some victories for the Jayhawks, but the debacle 2 weeks ago at home against CCU has me rethinking the whole idea.  I understood the problems in year one, but to lose at home to a Sun Belt teams 2 years in a row? The same team? The Bears will be opening their season, and while they have a new head coach in Dave Aranda, and this is his first HC gig, I have to believe they are better than CCU, and by extension, Kansas.  Besides, they crushed the Jayhawks 61-6 last November, and I can't imagine the teams are 56 points closer.  Baylor in a rout.

NC State @ Virginia Tech- The Wolfpack were unimpressive in eking out a victory over Wake Forest last week.  These teams haven't met since 2015, when the Hokies won 28-13 in mid-season, but this is the opener for VT, which is a different dynamic.  This will be a close game, but go with the home team.  VT wins.

Troy @ BYU- The Cougars annihilated Navy in their opener 3 weeks ago while the Trojans did pretty much the same to Mid Tenn in their opener last week.  BYU hasn't played since, and so should be well rested and prepared.  Navy has shown itself to be a decent team with their comeback against Tulane last week, while MTSU has been blown out twice.  This will be a good game for a while, but BYU will pull away in the 2nd half.  BYU wins.

That's all for today!  Feel free to leave a comment, follow me on Twitter (@pbanderson), or subscribe to this blog.  Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!