Paul's Picks Week 13

Welcome Back!

Last week I was a modest 34-10, or 77.3%.  Overall, I am now 291-105, or 73.5%, an increase of 0.5% from last week.  My goal every year is to finish at or above 80%, though I've never actually achieved that, but I almost always finish above 75%.  Last year I finished at 76.5% for the regular season, and 76.2% overall, which isn't too shabby.  

I want to point out that my predictions come simply from 45+ years of watching and following college football.  I do not have the time (or staff!) to do massive research into depth charts, injuries, transfers, etc, and so, if I were you, I certainly wouldn't take my picks to Vegas (or wherever) and bet the mortgage with them!  My brothers and I have been predicting the games among ourselves off and on for many years, and I should point out that I haven't "won" in a while, but I also haven't finished last, either, so there's that.  Anyway... let's get to the picks!

Thursday November 26

New Mexico @ Utah State- Both of these teams are just awful, as both are 0-4, but someone has to win.  Fittingly, this series is tied at 13 wins apiece, but the Aggies have won the last 3, and the last time they played in Logan, they won by 42, and in fact lead 7-4 in games played in Utah.  However, the Lobos have played both Hawai'i and Nevada within 7 points or less, while USU's closest loss has been by 19 to Fresno State, and the Aggies lost to Nevada by 25.  Not much to go on, but I'm picking NM in the mild upset.  

Friday, November 27

UMass @ Liberty- This series is tied at 1 win apiece, but that is the only thing about this game that will be close.  The Flames have scored 28+ in 8 of 9 games, and 40+ in 3.  The Minutemen have been outscored 116-12 in its 3 games.  Expect a blowout.  Liberty wins.

Iowa State @ Texas- The Longhorns dominate this series 14-3, but the Cyclones have won 2 of the last 5 after only winning 1 of the 1st 12 (in 2010).  UT is on a 3-game winning streak, and their defense has held 2 of their last 3 opponents under 20 points, and they haven't played since Nov 7.  Meanwhile, ISU has scored 38+ in each of their last 3 games, and just shut out Kansas State.  This should be a close game, but Iowa State wins on the road.

Nebraska @ Iowa- In this series that dates back to 1891, the Cornhuskers lead 29-18-3, but the Hawkeyes have won the last 5, the last 2 by 3 points each.  Iowa has unleashed its offense the last 3 weeks, averaging just less than 42 ppg, and for the season, have yet to give up more than 24 points in any game.  In contrast, the Huskers have surpassed 23 points just once (against woeful Penn St) and have allowed 41+ in 2 of their 4 games.  Expect a rout.  Iowa wins.

Notre Dame @ North Carolina- On the surface, this looks like an easy pick.  The Fighting Irish are undefeated, lead the series 18-1, and have scored 31+ in 6 of their 8 games while holding 5 of their opponents to 13 or less.  However, a closer look shows some troubling issues.  The Tar Heels have scored 41+ in their last 4 games and 5 of their last 6, including 56+ in 3 of those games.  In addition, their defense has held half of their 8 opponents to 24 points or less.  The vaunted ND defense has allowed 40 and 31 points the last 2 games, so expect UNC to get their points.  The key to this game may be turnovers. Finally, only 4 of the 19 games in this series have been played since 1975, with UNC getting their lone win in 2008.  This could be an upset, but ND wins a close one.

UCF @ USF- The Knights were eliminated from winning the AAC with their loss to Cincinnati last week.  The Bulls were eliminated long ago, and are the only team in the FBS with a win, but not one over an FBS team, and this is their last chance to fix that, unless their postponed game with Navy is made up.  The Bulls actually lead this rivalry, nicknamed "The War on I-4", but UCF has won the last 3, with only the 2017 win being closer than 27 points.  UCF wins big.

Wyoming @ UNLV- The Cowboys lead the series 13-11, and have won 4 of the last 5, including by 36 last year.  The Rebels have lost every game by at least 13 points, but the combined record of their opponents is 15-3.  Wyoming hasn't played since Nov 7, but do own a win over Hawai'i.  Wyoming is the better team and should win, but I think UNLV has potential.

Stanford @ California- Both of these teams are 0-2.  The Cardinal has allowed 35 points in each of their games, and scored 14 and 32.  The Golden Bears have been outscored 65-37.  Stanford leads the Bears 59-44-10, winning 9 of the last 10, but Cal won last year.  These teams 1st met on March 19, 1892, with Stanford winning 14-10, and then again on Dec 17 of the same year.  3 of their 1st 5 meetings were ties.  None of that applies to this meeting.  Just thought it was interesting.  No idea who will win this.  Go with the Bears at home.

Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan- The Eagles are 0-3, but have played teams with a combined 7-2 record, and now play the Chippewas, who are 2-1.  CMU leads the series in dominating fashion, 61-30-6, but the 2 teams have split the last 4.  EMU lost their 1st 2 by a combined 11 points, then were blown out by Toledo.  CMU wins.

Oregon @ Oregon State- The Ducks are 3-0, winning their 1st 2 easily, then eking out a win over UCLA.  The Beavers are 1-2, with all 3 games being won or lost by 10 points or less.  A win here for OSU would absolutely make their season, regardless of what else happens.  Oregon leads the series 66-47-10, mostly due to their recent dominance, winning 11 of the last 12.  Ducks win again, but expect a close game.

Saturday, November 28

Ohio State @ Illinois- The Buckeyes should absolutely win this game, as they lead the series 68-30-4, have won the last 8 and 11 of the last 12, and are outscoring their opponents by an average of just over 19 ppg.  The Illini are only 2-3, have beaten teams with a combined record of 2-7, nd have allowed 3 opponents to score 31 or more against them while scoring more than 24 only once themselves.  By all accounts, this should be a rout.  But I see Illinois hanging around for a half, maybe more, as OSU may be looking ahead a bit to rivals Mich St and Michigan, as the Big Ten East is all but sown up.  OSU wins, but it won't be as easy as it should be.

Kentucky @ Florida- The Wildcats were embarrassed last week, and will be looking to make a better showing this week.  The Gators are looking to clinch the SEC East, and so every win is a step in that direction, so they don't care about UK's feelings.  UF leads the series by a whopping 52-18, and have won 38 of the last 40 played, though UK won in 2018.  The Wildcats will not make it 2 out of 3.  Florida wins big.

Maryland @ Indiana- The Hoosiers proved they were a good team last week by taking Ohio State to the wire, but the Terrapins are 2-1 themselves.  However, the Terps have beaten 2 teams that are a combined 2-8, though Indy's opponents aren't much better- wins against teams that are a combined 4-15.  The winner of this game will claim 2nd place in the Big Ten East (probably), and thus a chance at a better bowl.  Indiana appears to have the better defense, with both having comparable offenses.  IU leads the series 6-2.  Indy wins.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys have lost 2 of their last 3 games, and are seeing their hopes of a Big 12 championship fading away fast.  I've long had my doubts about this team, and how it would react to adversity when it hit, and this is another chance to see.  The Red Raiders have had an up and down season, but have shown potential to pull upsets, with close games against Texas and Kansas State, and a win over West Virginia.  TT actually leads the series 23-21-3, thanks to their wins in each of the last 2 years.  This is my Upset Special!  Texas Tech wins!

Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan- The Broncos are 3-0 and in sole possession of 1st place in the MAC West.  The Huskies are 0-3, but have played teams with a combined record of 7-2, but have been blown out twice.  WMU leads the series 25-20, and the 2 teams have split the last 4, but NIU won 7 straight from 2009-2015.  WMU wins.

Bowling Green @ Ohio- The Bobcats are 1-1, and are consistently among the best teams in the MAC, but they haven't won the conference since 1968, though they've won 3 division championships.  The Falcons have lost all 3 of their games by at least 25 points, though they do have a MAC championship in 2015.  BG leads the series 40-29-2, but Ohio has won the last 4.  Ohio wins easily.

Kent State @ Buffalo- The winner of this game will claim sole possession of 1st place in the MAC East, and the inside track to the division title and a spot in the MACCG.  The Bulls have scored 42+ in all 3 games, and have held 2 of their 3 opponents to 17 or less.  The Golden Flashes have eclipsed 62 twice, but all 3 of their opponents have scored 23 or more, with 1 scoring 35.  Buffalo has played 3 teams with a combined record of 1-7, and is winning by an average of 25.3 ppg.  KS has beaten 3 teams with a combined record of 0-9, and the exact same average margin of 25.3 ppg.  Buffalo leads the series 13-12, but is only 5-6 at home.  Buffalo wins and evens the series record at home.

Penn State @ Michigan- The Nittany Lions have to win sometime, don't they? The Wolverines lead the series 14-9, but PSU has won 2 of the last 3.  However, UM has won the last 3 played in Ann Arbor.  Since losing their opener in OT at Indiana, Penn State has lost by 13, 16, 7, and 20.  Since winning their opener over Minnesota by 25, Michigan has lost by 3, lost by 17, lost by 28, then beaten lowly Rutgers in 3 overtimes.  The difference here is offense.  Michigan has scored 48+ twice, but has also been held to 24 or fewer in their 3 losses.  The Lions have only scored over 25 once, and that took an OT game.  On defense, PSU has given up at least 30 points in every game while the Wolverines have held 2 foes to 27 or less.  Coin flip.  Go with UM at home.

Ball State @ Toledo- Both of these teams are 2-1, but their wins are against winless teams, and their losses are against the only teams with wins they have played.  The only difference is the Rockets have blown out their opponents in their wins, while the Cardinals have won by 7 and 6 points.  Toledo leads the series 24-20-1, and has won 5 of the last 6, but BS won 52-14 last year.  Toledo wins at home.

SMU @ East Carolina- The Mustangs still have a (faint) hope of making the AACCG, and so need this win.  The Pirates are just playing out the string.  The series is tied 4-4, with SMU winning the last 2.  SMU wins again.

Georgia Southern @ Georgia State- The series is tied at 3 wins apiece, but the Eagles have won the last 2, and 2 of the 3 that have been played in Atlanta.  The Panthers have been alternating wins and losses, and since they won last week, that means they're in line for a loss this week, but except for the game against CCU, they have played very well, even in their losses.  Witness- Ga State has lost to Louisiana by 3 in OT. @Ark St by 7, and @App St by 4.  The Eagles have played a lot of close games, too, and have a 5-2 record in games decided by 7 points or less (Ga State is 1-3 in those type of games).  GSU wins!  Ga State that is, in a mild upset.

NC State @ Syracuse- The Wolfpack leads the series 11-2, but are only 5-2 since the Orange joined the ACC.  At 5-3, NC State has had a good but not great season, but 2 more wins would make them 7-3, a huge improvement over last year's 4-8.  With every loss, the Orange are proving that 2018's 10-3 season was a fluke.  NC State wins easily, extending Syracuse's losing streak to 7 games.

Vanderbilt @ Missouri- These teams were not scheduled to play this week, but schedules had to be shuffled due to COVID.  The Tigers lead the series 7-4-1, but it's only 5-3 since they joined the SEC, with Vandy winning last year.  The Commodores are trying to avoid their 1st winless season in their 117 year history, and they haven't been winless in the SEC since 2014.  Mizzou has won 2 straight, and 3 of their last 4.  Make it 4 straight; Missouri wins.

UTEP @ Rice- No matter what happens from here on out, the Miners have had a successful season, as their 3 wins are already more than the 2 wins they combined to win over the last 3 seasons.  However, another win would give them their 1st conference win since they defeated Rice in 2018, but they have still not won a CUSA home game since 2016.  The Owls lead the series 15-8, and have won 11 of the last 14.  After playing 4 games in September, UTEP has only played 3 games since.  Rice has played 3 games total, all since Oct 24.  I'll take the team that has played more recently, and has played closer games, and has won a conference game, and is playing at home.  Rice wins.

Miami, OH @ Akron- Someday, the Zips are going to win a game and break their 20 game losing streak, and their 15 game MAC losing streak.  However, their closest loss this year has been by 14 points.  But the good news is that their last close loss, by 3 points, was to Miami last year.  The Redhawks are 1-1, having beaten Ball State by 7 and then lost to Buffalo by 32.  Miami leads the series 19-9-1 and has won the last 3, but the Zips won the 4 before that.  Miami wins on the road, extending Akron's misery for another week.  Maybe next week, Akron...

Coastal Carolina @ Texas State- The Chanticleers can clinch the SBC East with a win against the Bobcats, but more importantly, will continue their quest to finish undefeated.  TSU broke their 7 game losing streak with a 2 point upset win over Arkansas St, and so are looking for another upset win, but beating CCU will be much more difficult.  The series is tied at 1 win apiece, with CCU winning by 3 last year.  Expect CCU to win again this year.  By a lot.

Louisiana @ ULM- The Warhawks haven't played since Nov 7, but more importantly, haven't played a close game since Oct 3, their only loss by less than 18 points.  They would like nothing more than to upset their rivals.  The Ragin' Cajuns have already clinched the SBC West and are looking forward to a rematch with CCU and exacting revenge for their 3-point loss on Oct 17.  UL leads the series 29-25, and has won 10 of the last 12, but most of the games have been close.  Louisiana wins again, but in a rout this time.

North Texas @ UTSA- Surprisingly, both of these teams are still in the race for the CUSA West division title.  The Roadrunners are on a 2 game winning streak, have won 3 of 4, and have an excellent chance to win the division and play for the CUSA championship for the 1st time in their brief FBS history in HC Jeff Traylor's 1st year.  The Mean Green have overcome a 1-3 start to even their record and are 2-2 in CUSA, though last week's win over Rice was their 1st game since Oct 17.  This should be a close game.  NT leads the series 4-3, having won the last 3, but UTSA evens it up.  Roadrunners win.

South Alabama @ Arkansas State- The Red Wolves lead the series 6-2, but the Jaguars have won 2 of the last 3.  At one point, USA was 3-2 and 2-0 in the SBC, but have now lost 4 in a row.  The Wolves also started out like a house afire, playing Memphis relatively close, beating Kansas State, and then winning 2 of their next 3 to start 3-2/1-1, but they've also lost 4 straight.  Another coin flip game, so go with the home team.

Auburn @ Alabama- The Iron Bowl is always one of the highlights of the season, and almost always close and unpredictable.  The Crimson Tide leads the series 46-37-1, but the Tigers have won 2 of the last 3.  However, the Tide is only 5-6 in Tuscaloosa, but has won the last 4 and 5 of the last 6 played there.  The Plainsmen have played only once since Halloween, beating Tennessee last week, and their defense the last 2 games has given up a combined 28 points while the offense has scored 78.  The Tide hasn't scored less than 41 since scoring 38 in their opener at Missouri, and have broken 50 points 3 times.  Defensively, Bama has given up 20 points combined to their last 3 opponents.  I won't be surprised if the game is close for a half or more, but the War Eagles will fade in the 2nd half.  Alabama wins.

Pittsburgh @ Clemson- These teams have only met once in the regular season, with Pitt winning 43-42 in 2016.  However, they met in the 2018 ACCCG (a 42-10 Clemson win) and the 1977 Gator Bowl (a 34-3 Pitt win).  The Panthers have won 2 straight after a 4-game losing streak.  This will be the 1st game for the Tigers after their loss to Notre Dame on Nov 7.  I wonder if they will be distracted by all the comments from HC Dabo Swinney concerning FSU pulling out of last week's game, and if that will affect their focus on this week's game.  I would not be surprised if this game is very close until the very end, but I also wouldn't be surprised by a Clemson blowout.  I think Clemson wins, but just not sure by how much.

Northwestern @ Michigan State- The Wildcats overcame their toughest game to date when they defeated Wisconsin, but taking on a 1-3 Michigan State may be more difficult to get up for.  The Spartans defeated Michigan (somehow), but have been routed by Iowa and Indiana and lost to lowly Rutgers.  The Spartans lead the series 38-20, and won by 21 last year, but NW has won 3 of the last 4.  Northwestern beats  MSU.

FAU @ Middle Tennessee- The Owls are 5-1, and 4-1 in CUSA with an outside chance of winning the East division.  The Blue Raiders started the season 0-4, but are 3-2 since then, but only 2-4 in CUSA.  MTSU leads the series 12-5, but FAU has won 2 of the last 3.  The Owls have not allowed more than 20 points in any game this year, and MTSU has scored 20 or less in 5 of their 9 games.  FAU wins easily.

Rutgers @ Purdue- The Boilermakers won their 1st 2, but have dropped their last 2.  The Scarlet Knights began the season by beating Michigan State, but have since lost 4 straight, the last one in 3 OTs.  This is only the 2nd meeting between these 2 teams, with Rutgers winning the 1st one in 2017, 14-12.  Purdue will get revenge. PU wins.

San Jose State @ Boise State- The Spartans have never beaten the Broncos, with BS holding the 14-0 series edge.  In fact, only 2 games have been closer than 14 points: in 2006 when the Broncos won 23-20 and last year when the score was 52-42.  Both of those games were in San Jose.  The closest game in Boise was the 45-31 win in 2016.  The difference is that this year, the Spartans have a defense that has allowed no more than 21 points in any game, and they are coming off of a bye week due to a canceled game.  The Broncos have only scored less than 40 once, when they lost to BYU 51-17.  If the Spartans can score, they may be able to hang with the Broncos.  I really want to go with SJSU, but I just can't pull the trigger, especially with the game being on the blue turf.  Boise State wins.

Mississippi State @ Ole Miss- The Egg Bowl has had so many crazy moments, not the least of which was last year's bizarre ending.  The Rebels lead the series 62-46-6, but the Bulldogs have won 3 of the last 4.  Ole Miss is on a 2-game winning streak, scoring 50 in each of those games.  Miss State has scored more than 24 only once, in their opener against LSU.  I don't think the Bulldogs can score enough to keep up with the Rebels.  Ole Miss wins.

Louisville @ Boston College- The Cardinals started the season 1-4, but have gone 2-2 since.  The Eagles have been up and down, but have not lost 2 games in a row all season, and their last game was a loss to ND.  UL leads the series 7-5, but BC has won 2 of the last 3.  BC wins.

LSU @ Texas A&M- The Tigers have won 2 of their last 3, but their defense continues to struggle.  The Aggies have held 3 opponents to 14 points or less, but haven't played since Nov 7.  Offensively, these teams seem fairly comparable.  The Bayou Bengals lead the series 34-21-3, and have won 8 of the last 9.  The Aggies are building toward a possible playoff spot.  TAMU wins.

Duke @ Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets haven't played since Halloween, and the Blue Devils haven't since Nov 7.  When they have played, these teams are a combined 4-11.  GT leads the series 51-35-1, but Duke has won the last 3, and 5 of the last 6.  This is another coin flip game.  Go with the home team.  GT wins.

Kansas State @ Baylor- The Wildcats started the season 4-1, but have lost their last 3 games.  The Bears, at 1-5, have only a win over Kansas to their credit.  KSU leads the series 9-8, but Baylor has won the last 2 and 6 of the last 8.  Neither team has played well lately, but KSU at least has wins over Oklahoma and TCU.  Wildcats win.

Memphis @ Navy- The Tigers have won their last 2 , but neither win was overly impressive.  The Midshipmen have lost 2 straight, but haven't played since Oct 31.  Navy leads the series 3-2, but Memphis won last year, 35-23.  Memphis wins this year, too.

Georgia @ South Carolina- The Dawgs have dominated this series to the tune of 51-19-2, and have won 4 of the last 5, but SC won last year in 2 OT.  SC had a run of 3 out of 4 from 2010-2014, but have generally won one or two games followed by long stretches of UGA wins.  The Gamecocks have given up 38+ points in 4 of their 8 games, but have broken 40 only twice, once in a loss to Ole Miss.  The Bulldogs have yet to score more than 37 in any game, but have allowed more than 24 only twice, and both times they allowed 41+ in losses.  UGA should hold SC to 20 or less, and should score their normal 24-31 points.  UGA wins.

TCU @ Kansas- The Horned Frogs had high hopes this year, but are only 3-4 in the Big 12.  The Jayhawks are staring at yet another winless season.  Over the last 10 seasons, Kansas has gone winless in the Big 12 4 times, and has not won more than 1 conference game in any season.  TCU leads the series 23-9-4, and has won 7 of the last 8.  TCU wins.

Virginia @ FSU- The Cavaliers have quietly won 3 in a row while the Seminoles have lost 3 in a row.  FSU leads the series 14-4, but UVA has won 2 of the last 3.  The Wahoos win easily.

Troy @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers only lead the series 5-3, but all 5 wins have come in the last 6 meetings.  The Trojans have lost 3 of their last 4, and have been held below 20 points in their last 2.  That won't cut it against ASU.  Mountaineers win.

Arizona @ UCLA- The Bruins are 1-2, but both losses are to unbeaten teams, and both were by 6 points or less.  The Wildcats are 0-2, and both of their losses are also to unbeaten teams, but 1 was by 4 and the other by 17.  UCLA leads the series 25-17-2, but Arizona has won 2 of the last 3.  Expect a close game, but UCLA pulls it out late at home.

Utah @ Washington- The was not the scheduled game for either team.  The Huskies are 2-0, with 1 win by 6 and 1 by 17.  The Utes are only 0-1, but lost by 16 to USC.  UW leads the series 12-2, but Utah won by 5 last year.  Washington will get revenge.  UW wins.

Nevada @ Hawai'i- The Wolf Pack lead the series 14-10, but the 2 teams have split the last 4.  Nevada leads the MWC at 5-0, and as long as it keeps winning, it will qualify for the MWCCG.  The Rainbow Warriors are only 2-3, but are always dangerous on the Island.  Expect the game to be close for a half or so, but Nevada will pull away and win.

Tuesday, December 1

WKU @ Charlotte- The Hilltoppers have won their last 2 games, and are finally playing up to expectations.  The 49ers have had 5 games canceled or postponed, and so are only 2-1 in CUSA.  Charlotte had a chance to challenge for the division title, but had too many cancellations to build any kind of momentum, as they haven't played since Halloween.  WKU leads the series 3-2, with each team winning at home, but the Hilltoppers will break that pattern this year.  WKU wins.

That's all for today!  Feel free to leave a comment, follow me on Twitter (@pbanderson), or subscribe to this blog.  Come back Monday for my TWIF Notes.

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!