Whither the Big 12?
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This is a Special Edition of my blog, as it is outside of my normal "rotation". But this is a big deal, as there is so much uncertainty as to the future of college football, as it seems to be about to go through a sea change, brought on by the news of Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC, and then the ACC, Big Ten, and PAC 12 announcing a scheduling alliance. In this blog, I will explore several possibilities of what that future could look like.
Let's start with the Big 12. With the departure of Texas and Oklahoma, whether that be in 2025 as they claim, or whether that happens sooner, the remaining 8 have some decisions to make. Do they stay together, or do they split apart? Before the Big 12 formed in 1994 and began play in 1996. It was formed from the Big Eight (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas and Kansas State) and 4 teams from the old Southwest Conference (Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, and Texas Tech). The remaining SWC teams (TCU, SMU Houston, and Rice) were left out in the cold (Arkansas left after the 1991 season to join the SEC). Of the original 12 members of the Big 12, after Oklahoma and Texas depart, only 6 will remain.
It's possible the 8 remaining members could rename themselves the Big Eight, as a reiteration of a previous conference, but only 4 of the original Big 8 remain as a unit, and none of the teams that used to dominate that conference- Oklahoma, Nebraska, and, occasionally, Colorado- are still around. That makes them somewhat less than they were, and as everyone seems fond of pointing out, less desirable to the media and the viewing public. That seems like a path to irrelevancy, but it could keep them in the power structure, and would allow them some advantages. First, if the playoff expands to 12 as expected (the sooner the better for this group, especially if OU and Texas leave before '25), then they have a good shot at getting a team in the playoff nearly every year. Second, with only 8 teams, that means only 7 conference games, no title game ( I would assume, but they better have tie-breakers ready- no more 2014s!), and 5 OOC games, where they could schedule other P5 teams quite easily, perhaps raising their profile with victories, while having room to play lower level teams and padding their victory totals and having extra home games.
Another option would be expanding, but which teams would enhance their profile/media rights/income? BYU has a national following, and Notre Dame would be a coup (good luck with that!), but who else? Ideally, if they were to expand, it would be by adding in groups of 2s so as to avoid an odd number of teams. If they go by recent football success, then teams like Appalachian State, Army, Boise State, BYU, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Georgia Southern, Liberty, Louisiana, Marshall, Memphis, UAB, and UCF have all finished in the top 30 in winning percentage over the last 3 years. If you want more sustained success, say over 6 years, that list narrows to App State, Boise St, Memphis, UAB and UCF. 10 years worth of success? That narrows even more to just App State (only been in FBS for 7 years), Boise St, and UCF (BYU is #31). If they expand by tradition, that would mean adding back in teams from the old SWC- Houston, Rice, and SMU, but does that really make them a better conference? Houston has been steadily declining over the last 5 years, Rice hasn't won more than 3 games since 2015, and while SMU has shown great improvement the last 2 years, that follows at least 8 years of mediocrity at best. IF the Big 12 were to expand, I believe their best bet would be some combination of BYU, Boise State, Memphis, UCF, Appalachian State, and SMU. The fallout, of course, would be what happens to the conferences these teams come from? How do they fill those slots, if at all?
A third option would be every team for itself, with each finding its own home. There has been lots of speculation about West Virginia to the ACC, or Iowa State and Kansas to the Big Ten, and maybe Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas Tech to the PAC 12, but the Pac 12 has already announced it is not expanding, and I don't expect the other 2 power conferences to expand, either, so this option is looking less and less likely. I don't see these teams moving "down" to a G5 conference, as they would then lose their status as a P5 conference. This option seems very unlikely.
A final option would be to merge with another conference, creating a mega-conference, but that just may become way too unwieldy, like the old WAC was back in the early 2000s. The smallest conference (other than themselves) is the Sun Belt, but merging with them would create 18 teams. Now, it's possible they could do like they did back in the 90s, and merge with some teams and leave the others high and dry. If that were to happen the best bet would be the AAC. I could see pulling 6-8 teams from the AAC to merge with the Big 12 (8) to form a 14-16 team conference, split into East and West divisions. A possible setup:
Baylor
Iowa State
Some big questions remain; does the PAC12/Big Ten/ACC alliance hold together, or was it just a power play/temper tantrum to counteract the SEC adding OU and Texas? Are we getting ready to have a split between the P5 and the G5 structurally? Are we about to have a split within the P5, with the SEC on one side, and everyone else on the other? If the Big 12 merges with the AAC, will they join their former brethren on the SEC side, or will their animosity push them to the alliance side? Will money be enough to put animosity aside?
So much uncertainty...
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Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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